In this daily Bitcoin update, the host reviews the recent market action where Bitcoin experienced its largest long liquidations in three years, surpassing the levels seen during the Celsius, 3AC, and FTX collapses. He explains how the sweep of the previous weekly low creates buy‑side liquidity at prior swing highs and the all‑time high, setting up a potential upside move if higher‑timeframe confirmation appears. The analysis covers the weekly and daily charts, highlighting fair‑value gaps, bearish order blocks, and the critical $78,000 weekly low level. Two scenarios are outlined: a weekly close below $78k would signal continued downside, while a close above would open the path to long positions targeting the prior weekly high. The host advises a cautious, no‑trade stance for the current day, recommending traders wait for high‑probability setups confirmed on higher timeframes. He also contextualises the short‑term bearish bias with a longer‑term bullish macro view, noting the Fear & Greed Index at extreme fear, a resurgence in M2 money supply, and the influx of liquidity into risk‑on assets like crypto. The video ends with a call to subscribe and an offer for a free trading course.
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What's up guys, welcome back to the Daily Bitcoin Update. Yesterday's scenario was perfectly spot on. We basically said that the previous weekly low would have to be taken out first before any sort of upside move. And at the time that we were recording the video yesterday, we had just swept the highs. And I was basically talking about how there are pretty much 2 ways that the day could go. One is that you break below this blue box here. That will confirm a change in state of delivery, or rather continuation in state of delivery in terms of bearish order flow. The second would be that you sweep this high again and you fill in the fair value gap and off you go. And there was a potential for yesterday to also be a consolidatory day because there was no news. And today, tomorrow, Thursday, Friday has news. Overall, I think this is going to be a pretty volatile week. So I'm going to just give you the game plan on what to do from this point onwards. And just TLDR, you might not like the answer, but the short answer is that there is nothing much to do yet. At least we don't have enough confirmation from the higher timeframes. Just to give you an idea, if you take a look at— in fact, let's start all the way out at the higher timeframe on the weekly chart. So first of all, the fact that you've swept the previous weekly low gives you an opportunity to perhaps head back up to the previous weekly high, right? So the fact that this low is swept means that there is a reasonable amount of evidence to believe that, hey, price is eventually going to head to the upside because that's where the liquidity is at. For those of you who don't understand what liquidity is, think of previous swing highs and swing lows as just a lot of traders placing their stop losses around those levels. For example, today we had quite literally the highest amount of liquidations that we have ever had in the history of Bitcoin, basically in the last, you know, 3 years. This was the Celsius and 3AC collapse in terms of Bitcoin long liquidations. This was the FTX collapse in terms of Bitcoin. And today we have completely broken through that number. And yeah, like just a lot of people got stopped out. Why? Because you have swept the previous weekly low. This is a point where the market is quite literally at all-time highs in terms of fear. And greed, fear mainly. And like, this is where liquidations happen. This is what happens when previous swing lows and previous swing highs are taken. So once there are enough liquidations and once enough people have capitulated and the market makers have stopped out enough people and made them believe essentially that, hey, crypto is going to go to zero and that they should take some shorts at this point, that's the point when they will reverse the market in the other way, or rather in the other direction, to target the opposite side of the liquidity. In this case, it would be buy-side liquidity at the previous weekly high and even 2 weeks previous weekly high, and as well as the current all-time high on Bitcoin. Now, I'm not saying that this is going to be the bottom going to the all-time high right now, but there is like— we can now start looking for confirmations to jump into long-side trades or even just buying into crypto as, you know, swing trades or even investments. So the way that this is going to play out, and the first thing that we really want to see in terms of this week, is that one, We do not want to see a weekly close underneath $78,000. Okay, this was the swing low that just got taken out. There are only 2 ways that this can go. One is you close underneath this level, which means that first of all, price swept this level, but there were not enough interested buyers in keeping price above that level, which means there are more sellers than buyers, hence we can reasonably expect price to continue heading lower. Now, the second scenario is that you sweep the low and you fail to close below it, Which means that there are interested buyers, and this is a point where you can start to look for longs. If you get a weekly close above this level this week, then next week you can reasonably expect to go long targeting the previous weekly high. But until next week happens, and until we get more confirmation, by the way, because we have only just swept the low, there is no sign yet, at least in terms of the weekly chart. Even on the daily chart, there is absolutely no sign. The best-case scenario, if you are a short-term trader, is that if today's candle closes bullish, then you can reasonably expect next day's candle to trade into this bearish fair value gap over here, marked out by the green box. So that's a fair value gap marked out on the daily chart. If today's candle closes green, right, let's say closes green here, tomorrow's candle opens up here, you can reasonably expect to target that. But just today alone, I think you are better off staying outside, or like staying away from the markets, because overall trend is still towards the downside, overall order flow is still towards the downside. But the problem is that you do not have any further confirmation that you are going to go to the upside. But it also feels kind of stupid to start going short here because then you'll be selling low and essentially buying high eventually. In current conditions, Bitcoin's a trade that I would say is just in a no-trade zone. This is a reality of a lot of trading. I mean, like, a lot of the times, the best traders that I know, like, including myself, like, over the years, I used to try to trade every day, but now I just trade the high probability conditions. And I've come to realize that, you know, you might be lucky if you get 2 to 3 high probability days within the week. Most of the time it's just about waiting and staying outside of the markets until the high probability conditions come back around. At the moment, again, like one hourly chart, you have a change in state of delivery. Yes, I get it. Problem is you're running into a lot of resistance. For example, that is a bearish order block. You can even say that this entire block here is the bearish order block. So again, you don't have enough confirmation to go long yet, but it also feels stupid to go short here. I don't know about you, but like You know, if I was really trying to force a trade, then perhaps I'm going to lean towards the short side. But again, ideally, you don't want to be in a position where you're forcing trades, right? There are so many other coins out there. You literally have entirely different markets in forex, in indices, in stocks, and everything. Like, there are so many markets that you can trade, and it's so much better if you wait for a higher probability setup on— it's so much better for you if you just take a higher probability setup on those. Compared to this one, there were like an insane amount of like I don't know motorbikes or whatever that just passed by. So might hear a little bit of noise in the recording, but hopefully it's not too bad. Just to give you guys the rundown, we are still in the exact same situation. But just to give you guys another rundown, today is probably a no trade zone. If today's candle closes bullish, then perhaps we have a trade tomorrow. But chances are this is going to be a counter trend trade, meaning you're just trading into this fair value gap for further continuation until proven otherwise. And the condition that would prove this otherwise. So that you close above the February gap, come back down to find the February gap as support, right? You flip the bearish February gap into a bullish February gap. You find support at that, and off you go. That will take a few days. We're looking at the daily chart here, and it's so much better for your trading when you wait for higher timeframe confirmations and to trade in line with the higher timeframe, you know, direction and order flow. And guess what? Higher timeframe means that it takes time to confirm. If we confirm it within this week, amazing, we're lucky. But chances are we're probably going to need to wait till next week for just really high probability conditions to show itself. The other scenario is that if this week's candle closes bearish, then well, guess what? Next week we just continue trading bearish. Overall, the direction is going to be so much more clear, and we're going to get just such like more clean movement. Let's just put it that way. But do not forget, overall in the macro, we are really bullish. Fear and Greed Index is quite literally at all-time highs in terms of fear. We have had the biggest liquidations in terms of longs since 2022. M2 money supply has been starting to go like just starting to increase. And M2 money supply, for those of you who don't know what that is, it's just global liquidity. The more liquidity that you have in the markets, the more money is flowing around in the global markets in general, the more money that trickles into crypto and risk-on assets such as, you know, indices as well as especially crypto. So short-term, we're still going to play it really cautiously. It's why I'm making these daily videos. So if you appreciate these analyses done from the smart money perspective, then subscribe, like the video, And stay tuned for the next one. And if you want a free trading course delivered straight to your email, it's free by the way, it's the first thing in the description box below. Otherwise, I'll see you in the next one. Bye-bye.
