Bitcoin: Looking Bullish Today

What's up guys, welcome to another video. Yesterday we talked about 2 main scenarios. One is that the start of the week, like the first half of the week from Monday to Wednesday, it's probably going to go towards the upside, setting up some kind of market maker sell model before, you know, some kind of a weak, some kind of an aggressive down move on the second half of the week. And so far so good. Yesterday we've got a pretty, you know, volatile move, and so far we have the original consolidation. Right now we have the first impulse move up Right now we're kind of in the second consolidation, so expecting another impulse move up towards the upside. And also, if you take a look at news today, tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday, we're going to have rate news on every single day, culminating with the non-farm payrolls on Friday. This is one of the most volatile news events in all of, you know, traditional finance or finance in general. And so yeah, expecting this week to be very volatile. We could just completely get our, you know, weekly bias completely invalidated in the sense that that Bitcoin is just going to pump all the way to $92,000 again. But based on, at least based on how price action is shaping up, I still think that the bias that we have heading into the week is valid. So in this video, I'm going to talk about the game plan for today, give you exact trade ideas for today as well as the rest of the week. And right before I get into it, guys, I'm hosting a free masterclass in 3 days talking everything about macro. Now, a lot of the times we focus on just technical analysis and trying to, you know, nail the perfect setup, but then we'd fail to realize that Without the right macro conditions, you know, micro doesn't really matter. This is kind of like going straight into the lower timeframes before you do your higher timeframe analysis. Anyways, this is a really valuable masterclass, and for those of you who have attended my past masterclasses before, you know that this is all value. There's no BS, there's not going to be any fluff, and it's all, you know, completely for free. Currently, we already have about 150 slides just purely on macro, talking about the things that matter and how you can use it to time your entries when it comes to crypto. If you're interested in signing up, the first link in the description box below. Highly recommend you guys sign up. It's completely for free. Anyways, with that out of the way, let's get into the video. So first things first to understand before I get into the lower timeframe stuff, just like how we want the macro environment to be right before we start looking at the micro, the same thing here. We start off on the higher timeframe. Currently you have just swept out the previous weekly high, but then you failed to close above it. This signals weakness. This signals that there is a lack of interested buyers in maintaining price above this level. It's very different. This is the exact same setup that we got Waiting for this one right here, where you swept the previous weekly low, but then you failed to close below it. This signals that there are, you know, an interested party of buyers keeping price above this level. And that's what we want to see if we are bullish. In this case, because this happened, we are bearish. And so the moment we get bearish, it's time to hop onto the daily to see if there are any areas of interest or any kind of PD arrays that we can take advantage of to essentially go short from. And right away yesterday, we drew out this initial inefficiency gap, which is a tiny one, like I get it. So probably the main PD array that we're going to be looking at is right there on that fair value gap, as well as this level right here, which yesterday we retested the order block. So if you just draw it like that on the candle bodies, that is your order block. Now just to give you some context as to what this order block is, essentially since the, you know, middle of January, at this point it's been about 2 and a half months, we have just been repeatedly forming bearish order blocks. So if you can see there It's a bearish order block. You break down, you come in, retest it, you fail to break above it, and then you break down again. And the up-close candles becomes the, you know, bearish order block. And once again, you break it down, price comes up to retest it, not once, not twice, not 3 times, 4, 5 times. You fail to break above it, and so you continue going lower. This becomes a new order block. Of course, we haven't retested this order block yet, but it's also how we have been able to predict that, hey, even though we took a long here, we took our profits here. Because overall, you're still in bearish order flow. You are still in— like, this is the order block that needs to be overcome before you can, without a shadow of a doubt, say that, hey, Bitcoin is bullish. And so until that happens, everything else could just lead to continuation towards the downside, probably towards $75,000 or perhaps lower. And so currently, we're still in bearish order flow, and right now, this is the newest iteration of that bearish order block right there. Price has currently broke down. So if, you know, history doesn't often repeat, but, you know, based on understanding what we know about order flow, it wouldn't be surprising if you were to come into the order block and just get rejected over the next couple of days. Which leads me on to one more time frame, which is the 1-hourly. Yesterday we talked about how we were anticipating some kind of a market maker sell model. So a market maker sell model essentially looks like this. Right now you are seeing live the— all of the bonus material that I have given you guys for the Macro Masterclass. There's a masterclass itself, there's There's a summary. This is a checklist that you can use to line up all of your macro conditions before you dive in. That's a conviction ladder, just teaching you how to— well, we even have flashcards and quizzes. Like, guys, all of this is yours for absolutely free if you sign up, first link in the description box below. Otherwise, let's go into the bootcamp because this is where the Market Maker Sell Model is located at. So this is the rough idea of the Market Maker Sell Model. We have an original consolidation. First impulse up into the accumulation, second impulse up into some kind of higher timeframe liquidity level or point of interest, and then you get a reversal. So let's see how that's going to play out. Right now we have our higher timeframe level at either the order block, but mainly we were looking at this fair value gap right there. So right at the fair value gap, you also have a previous swing high. So I think that is the higher timeframe liquidity slash point of interest. Now what's important to understand is that as long as you come into the fair value gap, that's all that matters. This level, it could be this level, it could be that level, like it doesn't really matter. What matters is that this is the higher time frame point of interest that we're looking at. So yesterday we called a pump yesterday. So yesterday one of the reasons why I called the pump is because, you know, as we were heading into the New York session, you were seeing some kind of bullish reaction. And indeed you got a breakout, retest of the original consolidation. In this case, this would be your bullish order block, retest it, and you know, you start heading up to that key area of interest. The thing is, because our bias on the weekly chart is bearish, It means that perhaps the first, second, or even third day of the week could just be setting up for what is eventually going to be the most volatile move of the week, closer to the second half of the week. And so this is the initial consolidation. Right now we're in the second leg up, so probably today our bias is going to be bullish towards the upside as well. And if that is the case, then here is how we are going to play it. So just hopping down, actually let's start off on the 1-hourly. As of the time that I'm recording this, it is about 1 AM New York, so The London open kill zone is about to start, and the way that we're going to play this is first of all, there is already a bullish order block right here. So if you were to retest it during the London session later, you can place your stop here, and you can place your target above yesterday's highs because the daily candle also closed bullish yesterday. And if you have a you know a bullish daily close, then unless today just starts dumping right away and we do not get that market maker sell model, which could also be a possibility, then chances are. This is going to be your target for the day. And so back onto the 1-hourly, that's the order block. Assuming that, you know, once London open kill zone starts, you maintain this level, you do not break below it, then this is going to be a very valid trade. Now if we head on to the 5-minute, we could potentially see something else as well. So just to give you an idea, this is— this red box here is the Asian session. Usually the price tends to play out in a couple of different ways. One is you either sweep either the Asian high or the Asian low and then reverse to the other side during the London. Or you break out of the high, London comes to retest, and a New York continuation. So it's only either one of 3 profiles that are the most common when it comes to the markets. At the moment, we are about to head into the London session, and right now the Asian high is swept. So in order for this to be valid, this setup to be valid, you really want to see price go no lower than around, let's see, 82,800 or even like 82,750. If it goes lower and starts breaking down, comes up, retests, Then expect the Asia low to be the target. Hick! You can even expect the original consolidation here to be the target, because right here you have one low and two lows that are relatively equal in terms of level. These are relatively equal lows. These are levels of inducement that just, you know, it tricks retail into, you know, getting into these levels and thinking that it's quote unquote strong support, whatever. But we know better. These are draws on liquidity, and ultimately they will get targeted. And so if you break down, perhaps the daily target for today is going to be right there. So I've given you 2 of the scenarios so far, and it has to do with the London kill zone. Perhaps at the time that you're watching this, it is going to be the New York. So the only thing that you want to keep in mind is first, you either break out of the Asia, you retest it, and you continue going higher. You will notice by the time you wake up when you're looking at the New York. If that is the case, then New York is probably going to continue to the upside. The opposite can be true as well. If you start breaking lower, right, and during the New York session you start retracing, by retesting the Asian range after breaking below it, then New York is probably going to be continuation towards the downside targeting this strong liquidity right there. So that's going to be the game plan for today. And if you watch until this point in the video so far and you would be interested in more analyses of crypto from the smart money perspective, then subscribe for more updates because I will be posting a video every day. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in the Macro Playbook Masterclass, completely free. Make sure you sign up. Bye-bye.