Bitcoin: Looking Shaky...

What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Yesterday we, as of the time that I was filming the video, we were at this candle and I was saying if you get a 1-hourly candle close above this block right here, look for a retracement into the block for it to form a higher low and ultimately take a trade, stop underneath it, and then target the current date— well, the previous daily high, but yesterday it was the current daily high. And this marks a successful clean trade, so we're going to put it onto the public scoreboard. Basically since February I've been tracking these calls that I've been making on YouTube just to show a little bit of credibility so that you can actually Trust that I'm right more often than I'm wrong, and that puts us up to 57 wins out of 68 trades. Not taking into account those altcoin trades because I think we have a couple more wins and a couple more losses there. I'm going to take some time to properly tabulate it though once I start reviewing the altcoins again. But in today's video, I'm going to give you guys the rundown on what's going on today. Without any further ado, let's dive right into it. Now the first thing I want to start off with actually is kind of a funny story because. When I was recording the video yesterday, I remember saying, like, Clarence, if you wanna bring up yesterday's recording. And basically the other possibility is that if you take a look at the daily chart at the moment, yesterday's candle was pretty volatile and prices tend to move. And whenever you get like a really volatile candle, the next day could be a little less volatile. But instead of targeting the current daily high, we may just chop around for the rest of the day. That is also a possibility. I basically spent like 20 or 30 seconds starting to go into one of the scenarios that I had in mind, which is that because of how volatile this pump has been, you know, the way yesterday could have played out would just be pretty dead in the sense that markets always move from periods of high volatility to periods of low volatility. And I was like, that was a scenario that was very possible yesterday. And yesterday ended up being very choppy. We still managed to catch a trade though, even within those choppy conditions. But just to not, you know, get labeled as the guy that, oh yeah, you say it's bearish and then you say it's bullish and then like you have so many different scenarios. Just to prevent those types of comments, you know, kind of cut it out from the video. Like I just kind of stopped myself. But I think starting from today, I'm actually going to truly give you guys all of the facts and everything you need to understand so that you guys can make a more informed decision heading into the markets. And at the end of the day, it's like I say this all the time, the job of us traders is not to predict what the market's going to do next. It's not about, oh yeah, the market's definitely going to do this and I'm definitely going to do this. It's more of like, hey, you know, these are— this is scenario A and this is scenario B. These are the conditions that are needed for either one of these scenarios to be validated. If they happen, or like once these conditions are met, you have a game plan for how to trade that scenario. For example, yesterday it was very clear, right? Bullish scenario. Well, first of all, yesterday I was already kind of going into the bullish direction. So the scenario, or like the conditions we wanted to look for, is step 1, we wanted to see an hourly candle close, right? Specifically on the 1-hourly, close above this one, retrace into here to form a higher low. That's step 2. Step 3, get into a trade, target the current day. Well, the previous daily high, and that will be step 3. And, you know, it's clear criteria like this so that the game plan becomes very easy, right? You just look for these specific conditions to be met and boom, you have a trade. If those specific conditions are not met, then you do not have a trade. It's as simple as that. And so that's what I'm going to be trying to do and just sticking true to my own values and what I like to, you know, educate you guys on and stop letting the opinions of a few people sway the methodology that has worked so well for us since February. Anyways, Going into today's chart, taking a look at the weekly chart, first of all, you are still very bullish. Again, you are at the previous all-time high at the moment. Markets go from high volatility to low volatility. If even if you were to look at the past, let's go into the daily chart. After you take out this high, for example, price spends an extended amount of time, around 2 weeks, consolidating before going into a true move. Similarly, I think, yeah, once you take out this high right here, you spend a week retracing before you give a true move. Not saying that currently we will Be, you know, like this. Oh yeah, and also taking a look at when price took out the previous all-time high, we went into like a 6-month consolidation before price eventually broke out. And so not saying that we are going to consolidate for that long, but just saying that it wouldn't be surprising if we started chopping around for a couple days, for a week, for even a couple of weeks, because right now we're at a new all-time high, and that's good news. So taking a look at the daily chart, first of all, we are still bullish, and so we will continue to trade bullish. until we are proven otherwise. And that's a very important lesson that I would like to take a couple minutes to share, which is a lot of the times when I deal with beginners, especially if they are fresh into the markets, have not been through any of the other cycles, well, they have a tendency to, oh, Bitcoin's at all-time highs right now. It's really expensive, right? It's $100,000 per Bitcoin. I should short because it's expensive, right? And it cannot go that much higher. It's not going to, it's usually not going to take long before they are proven otherwise because you do not wanna be shorting something that is clearly showing Strength, and that's the lesson here. Remember, in the markets, do not like sure, like yeah, it's okay to have an opinion on the valuations of all of these assets. Some people can argue that Dogecoin should not be a multi-billion dollar coin. That's fair. I'm sure you have your reasons. In the markets, there is people that are right, and there are people that make money. And for you to make money, you often don't need to be right. So instead of trying to you know project your own opinions onto the market, it's a much better strategy for actually making money in the market is to see what the market is trying to tell you. And then trade accordingly. And one of the things that you will see right now is that this is a clear uptrend. Order flow is also bullish. And so seeing this, this is not showing you any indication whatsoever that you should be going short. And so for those of you who are thinking about going short, just understand, like, trade what the market's trying to tell you, not what you think will happen. Most importantly, there will be a time when we hit the top of the bull market, we go through distribution, and we start entering into a bear market. But that time is not now because we do not have those confirmations. Confirmations being, you know, at least breaks of structure, at least changes in order flow. And at the moment, And we have neither. And so until that happens, we're going to continue trading long until proven otherwise, which means every opportunity into any sort of PD array on the daily chart is an opportunity to buy the dip for higher prices, not to short. Okay, shorting right now, yeah, sure, you take it, you take your profit at the fair value gap. Cool. That's like a, what, $2,000 move? Wouldn't you agree that the better move here, wait for a retracement into the fair value gap and then ride a $5,000 or $10,000 move? Much bigger magnitude, much higher probability. Chances are you're not going to have to wait so long for this trade to play out either. Whereas here you could just chop around for days. And like, yeah, overall, just remember that there is a reason why the saying, oh, trade with the trend, or the trend is your friend, is so popular. It is true. That's what makes money. And if possible, don't counter-trend trade. Right now the trend is bullish. So just a gentle reminder to all of you that may be new to the markets at the moment, please do not have the— do not feel the temptation to start just going giga short here. We've seen, we've seen a couple of very bad examples play out throughout the bear market. Il Capo is one of them, and look at where he's at now, right? Rock bottom. Anyways, going back into the daily chart, this is the February gap. If you were to retrace into it, this is an opportunity to go long. Alternatively, you also have this bullish order block right here that if you retrace into it also gives you an opportunity to go long. And right here you have another bullish order block. So 3 levels. I do not know which one's going to get hit. That's not my job as a trader. Again, it's just preparing for whichever one gets hit, and then you have a clear game plan for how to trade all of them. And that's all that matters. Key thing here though is that I do fully expect this one to be a significant level. Probably you may touch this, but it's pretty unlikely that you do touch this one. Just my take though. But again, depends on what price action gives us. Now hopping onto the 1-hour chart, we have a much blurrier— that is a word— blurrier picture, right? The situation for today is a little bit more uncertain. And the reason I say this is because, yes, you have swept out the high. But based on yesterday's daily candle, because it closed bullish, I'm just going to actually start writing this down. Day 1 bias, bullish. Week, bullish. H1, let's hop onto the H1, see where we're at. On the 1-hourly, technically bullish, but problem is you swept out the high there, and right now you've just given a change of sale delivery right here. This is now your bearish order block that price could potentially get rejected from to head towards this liquidity point right here, and perhaps even this daily fair value gap, right? Purely on the H1, it's bearish. And the reason for that, again, you have a range high swept after the all-time high. And so it wouldn't— I've already kind of like prefaced this earlier, but it wouldn't be surprising, you know, price to go through some kind of retracement or just consolidation at the moment. And so we're already trading within a range. But the beautiful thing about this is that we have relative equal highs, which means that this tends to be a drawn liquidity. So there is also reason for price to go to the upside. Okay. So bearish, but has reason to go to the upside. All right, now let's move on to the 5-minute, and you'll see why this starts to become a little bit confusing. And that's like, this is the everyday job of a trader, just weighing all of the different variables and like coming up with some kind of conclusion. And oftentimes that conclusion is never 100% in the green, it's never 100% in the red, it's usually somewhere in between, much like a lot of things in life. So if you take a look at the 5-minute, it's also interesting because right now you have an Asian session, which is the accumulation. Right now London is looking like manipulation, but it could also be a breakout. And the reason for that is because coming back into the 1-hourly, you'll see that we are very close to this low at the moment. And given that the 1-hourly has already shifted bearish, it could be very likely that you take out this low first before any sort of upside move. But then from what we understand in the markets, as well as, you know, session profiles, most days tend to play out as an AMD, meaning Asia tends to be the accumulation, London manipulates, and then New York tends to trade in the other direction of the manipulation. In this case, assuming that everyone who place their stop loss underneath these levels have already been stopped out. There is now no longer any reason for price to continue going lower except for this one right here, which means that price is likely to target all of these relative equal highs here where people are placing shorts, or rather their stop losses, right? Buy stops. So that is a scenario that makes sense. But this is also a scenario that makes sense, which brings me on to scenario number 2, right? You have A, and then London could potentially be a breakout before New York continues the breakout move. So By the way, guys, please do not start YouTubing what is an ABC session profile. This is something that I just came up with myself to make it easier to explain the differences between an AMD and an ABC. But at the moment, both seem likely. And so it's going to be very tough for me to make any sort of prediction right now as of the time that I'm filming this video. If I could film this video 2 hours later, like, just give you an idea, it's currently 5:30. If I could film this 2 hours later, closer to 7:30, I may have a much better I'm definitely going to have a much better sense of what's going to happen. But as of right now, there is reasons to believe that this could go short. There is reasons to believe that this could go long. So I'm just going to give you guys the conditions, like my personal rec— first of all, I'm going to give you my personal recommendation as to what to do. And that is going to take today very cautiously. If you are looking for intraday trades, today is not one of those high probability days just because of how price action is playing out. Okay. In bootcamp, something that I teach the traders as well as something that I use myself, is every single day I grade the day based on L1, L2, L3. L1 is like, yeah, you know, this is— I don't see any conditions that would make today tradable, right? Today's not, definitely not a high probability day. In fact, you could even say today is a low probability day. So that's level 1. Level 2 is that price action is kind of shaping up, right? We can sort of see where the liquidity is. We can see, you know, price has a reason to go here. Price also has a reason to go here, but it's not super certain yet, right? If we have the option, With another chart having a level 3, we probably wouldn't pick this level 2 opportunity. And that's currently my personal opinion based on my experience. This is where Bitcoin's at right now. Sure, it's tradable. You could force something, but not the best use of your capital, both mental and physical. Personally, my recommendation is to not trade this today in terms of intraday yet until you either get a sweep at the range highs or you get a sweep at the range lows. That will give you some much, much needed clarity. For example, if you were to sweep the range lows, this would definitely become your future bearish order block. And you can trade a continuation to the downside, right? That's scenario number one. Secondly, if you trade above the range high, you could look for potentially a higher low to get formed here for price to continue, or also sweep the range high and then do something like this, right? But as of right now, you can see where the time frames are not aligned. And this is one of the things that I stay away from whenever I do take trades. I want all time frames to be aligned. So until the 1-hourly is showing me bullish, I'm not going to take any bullish trades. And until the daily is showing me bearish, Ideally, I don't want to take any bearish trades, but for those of you who are a bit more trigger happy, or maybe a little— you guys have better risk appetite than myself— then still going to give you the setup. Just understand that this is probably not going to be the official call from me today. And the first setup is definitely going to be towards the short side because we have, you know, kind of a reason to believe that this is going to be going to the short side. At the moment, we are still within this bearish order block. If we were to draw out a fib from high to low, We are very close to hitting the 0.5 of the bearish order block, which means that from any point onwards, from this point onwards, as long as we get a change in order flow on the 5-minute chart, meaning this is your bullish order block, this is also your bullish order block, you can see how like all the bullish order blocks have been, you know, breaking out, getting respected, breaking out, getting respected. You just want to see, you just want to look for a 5-minute change in state of delivery. Once this happens and price starts shooting downwards, then that will be your trigger. Basically, Get an entry here, put your stop there, and then target this low right here as your TP1, right? This low at 110.250, and then another one at 109.150. That'll be your TP number 2, right? And the reason why we're looking only for 5-minute confirmation is because the 1-hourly has technically already went into bearish order flow from this CSD here. That is the reason why we are only using the 5-minute, because the 1-hourly, you already have that timeframe alignment. Now, That is on the bearish side. That is the criteria that you want to look for, just 5-minute change in order flow. And then you have the bullish side, which is a little bit more complicated because these are relatively equal lows at the moment. It means that ultimately they might get swept out before price actually goes bullish. This is the exact scenario that you see with, for example, this right now is a weak low. What is a weak low? A weak low is a low that does not sweep liquidity. For example, this is also a weak low and this is also a weak low. And you can see how price, after sweeping out these weak lows, pumping pretty aggressively. This is what happens all the time when people take trades at weak lows, or similarly at weak highs. In this case, this initially was a strong high because you swept out the liquidity, but after you form this relatively equal high here, now it is a weak high. And so there is a very high likelihood that this gets swept. Right now you have a very high likelihood for both of these levels to get swept. And so essentially we are consolidating. When you are in a range, all of the profits, or rather The highest probability trades are going to be taken from the deviations because we understand that when price is in a range, it has a tendency to want to stay in a range. And so that's why range trading can be so profitable because once you get the high swept, just wait until the low and then you can trade it the other way. Take the high, boom, you can trade it the other way. Take the low, you can trade it the other way until you break out of the range and this stops working. A lot of people tend to get screwed up in ranges, right? They struggle a lot in ranges, not because they're dumb or like they're stupid or whatever. It's just They are anticipating trending conditions when the market is in a range. But if you can see the range, and if you understand that you're in a range, you can act accordingly, which means shorter TPs, maybe taking trades only at the extremes and not in the middle, right? Stuff like that would go a long way to helping you prevent yourself taking bad trades in a range and perhaps even wait it out. Back to the topic from before, let's talk about the long condition. Now, the long condition is going to be a risky one, again, because you have a bearish change in state of delivery right now, this is your bearish order block, okay? Which means there's a higher likelihood that price gets rejected from this area rather than going through it. Now, higher likelihood doesn't mean impossible. Now, I'm going to give you the ideal scenario that you want to look for if you're a bull, and I'm going to give you a high-risk one if you are a little bit more trigger-happy. The more certain condition is to wait for price to actually break above this bearish order block, right? If you get a 1-hourly candle close above this, that would signify a bullish change in state of delivery, which means now you have all 3 timeframes alignment. In fact, you have 4 timeframe alignment, right? Your Daily will be biased— sorry, bullish. Weekly bullish. H1 bullish. M5 bullish. That'll be the ideal scenario. If this happens, retrace, boom. Now here's the more trigger-happy one. This currently could be considered a bullish order block. And again, the reason why this is triggered— like, the reason why this is high risk is because, again, you're in this bearish order block. There is a very high likelihood that this order block could just get blown through and price is going to hit this level right here. You're just going to get stopped out. But if you're still willing to take this risk, then your setup is going to be waiting for price to retrace. Back into this fair value gap right here, as well as this bullish order block right here. You want to look for price to also give you bullish order flow on the 5-minute. If that happens, yeah, you could potentially take a trade up to these relatively equal highs. But again, you will be entering early before you have timeframe alignment. As a reward for that, you will be able to catch a move close to the bottom in exchange for a lower probability, you know, type of trade. And if that is a risk that is worth taking for you, then that will be the idea. A little bit of a different style of video today. Hopefully you guys can see where I'm coming from. In terms of the uncertainty that's in the market at the moment. Just understand that overall, if you're, you know, holding spot, direction is still towards the upside. And if you're intraday trading, today can be a little bit tougher for you. But otherwise, if you enjoy these objective analyses from the smart money perspective rather than the usual retail garbage, especially smart money analysis done on crypto, then subscribe because I'll be coming to you guys with daily uploads during the weekdays. Oh, and also, if you want to work with me one-on-one personally, yes, me and you, to help you go full-time into trading or to get funded or to just, you know, find financial freedom from trading over the next 60 days, then click the first link in the description box below and you can see what I have to offer. But if this is not relevant for you, then I'll see you in the next one. Bye-bye.