In this YouTube video, the host provides a live‑trade style technical analysis of Bitcoin and major altcoins for the trading day of October 16, 2025. He begins by recapping a recent winning trade and invites viewers to follow his free Twitter trade alerts. Using daily, hourly, and 5‑minute charts, he identifies bearish fair‑value gaps, relatively equal highs/lows, and change‑of‑state‑of‑delivery patterns as the core setup. Two possible short‑side scenarios are outlined: a bounce to resistance followed by a drop, or a direct move down to the fair‑value gap. The primary trade window is 7:00‑10:00 AM, coinciding with typical news releases that are absent due to a government shutdown, making price action during that window critical. He recommends targeting a 2R risk‑to‑reward, with an intraday Bitcoin target around $119,600 (or lower) and an Ethereum target near $3,923. He discusses altcoin strength—Ethereum, Solana, XRP, BNB—suggesting an emerging alt‑season if Ethereum breaks above 0.0375 on the daily chart, but maintains a short bias for the day. The host also shares personal notes: it’s his birthday, he’s back home with family, and he thanks the audience for their support, encouraging subscriptions and linking to a separate video on take‑profit strategies. Throughout, he emphasizes disciplined adherence to his system, which he claims has an 80% win rate (120 wins of 150 calls).
Chapters
What's good, guys? I'm now back home, and to those of you who follow me on Twitter, we called a pretty winning trade yesterday. I unfortunately got stopped out, but I did see you guys make money. So yeah, if you want to follow along these live trades, feel free to just follow me on Twitter. They're all posted for free. But anyways, let's get back into today's video since I've made it since I've missed today. So kicking things off on the weekly chart, sorry, on the daily chart, we closed bearish yesterday, kind of like what we anticipated at the start of this week. Where we had this bearish fair value gap on the weekly chart as well as the daily chart. And right now price is just getting rejected from that. And so we're kind of expecting price to continue lower from this point onwards. And moving down to the 1-hourly, I think we have a pretty clear setup today. Direction is, well, clear because we've gotten a change in state of delivery over here and we've just gotten another one over here during the London session. Now there are 2 ways that this plays out today. A is you come back up into this upper level of resistance, Where you have relatively equal highs to break through. And, you know, you'll sweep everyone out, fill this in, and then go down. This is the exact same setup that we used back then to predict this dump, where you have a fair value gap right here, right? This was the top. We called the top, and you have relatively equal highs. Price swept it, and boom, off you go. And we're going to be looking for shorts this level right here at the fair value gap, as well as these relatively equal highs. In the event that we sweep these relatively equal highs at around the hours between 8 to 10 AM, We're going to be looking for price to give a short-term timeframe, right? Meaning the 5-minute chart to start breaking lower. And then we're going to take that trade down to $119,600 or potentially lower. Yeah, you either come back into this resistance, you go down, or you come back up here and you go down. Whether which one will happen is completely up to the market. Unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball. I cannot just tell you like, oh yeah, it's going to get rejected from here. That would be very irresponsible for me making these videos. Ultimately, my job is to prepare you for whatever likely scenarios will happen and to give you the game plan so that you can execute with precision when you know these scenarios happen. Now, the reason why I say that I don't really know when things are going to happen lies to one reason: there is no news today. Like, there is Canadian news. In fact, I'm pretty sure my timing got messed up again. Oh no, it's correct. All right, awesome. So yeah, we don't have news today. We don't have news tomorrow, and we don't have news the day after. And most likely this is due to a government shutdown. But still, we're gonna be looking for trades around the time that news would usually drop. And so that's around starting from 7:00 AM all the way until 10:00 AM. Now, we've already seen time and time again over the last, you know, week or so when, you know, we had this government shutdown that things like price continue to react or show reactions during the times when news was originally supposed to drop. And so yeah, we're gonna focus on those times. So essentially, when the price gets into either one of these areas between 7:00 to 10:00, That's going to be your trigger to get in. And secondly, you also have this level right here at 110400, where if you break below this, this entire block here will become some sort of resistance level. So you can just look for a continuation trade back to the downside. As for daily targets— intraday targets, I mean, for today— let's, uh, let's take a look real quick. So we don't really have much to work on other than the fact that we have this really huge wick. So I'm just going to say whatever trade that you get into, just target for a 2R. And of course, Hold longer if you would like a winner. In fact, I just made a video recently breaking down like a best kind of take profit strategy where that allows you to still stay consistent, right? Get some daily wins, but still be able to take advantage of huge moves in case it happens. I'm going to link it like at the end of the video. But for now, setup for Bitcoin is pretty straightforward. You just want to look for downside. And the beautiful thing about those relative equal highs also is that it aligns with the Asia high. So in the event that you sweep the Asia highs, Just look for a 5-minute change in state of delivery, and you're going to go to the downside. At least that's going to be the call for today. And this is again the same system that we've used so far this year to achieve 120 wins of the last 150 calls that we've made here on YouTube publicly. And ultimately, there's another point that I would like to bring up is Ethereum. Ethereum against Bitcoin has recently started showing a little bit more strength compared to before. Just to give you an idea, You've already started making some pretty significant changes to delivery. This block right here, my Wi-Fi is a little bit slow at the moment. So this block right here is a weekly resistance level. Recently, Ethereum did a very strong move to break above that resistance, and right now you're trading back into this resistance, which means that you have a potential now to flip this into potential support and for price to continue going higher. I.e., this means that an alt season is likely to happen here. So right now, the final trigger that I would like to see is a break above 0.0375. If we get a candle close on the daily above this level right here, this would be a reversal, and this entire block here will become future support. And so right now, if you still jump into altcoins, you're gonna still be a little bit early in the sense that, you know, you're kind of predicting the market to go up, which is not necessarily the smartest move. I've also made a video about that recently, which I will post sometime soon once it's edited on The best method to get into dips and how do you, you know, find confirmed bottoms. But anyways, and so if you'd like to see that video when it drops, subscribe, turn on the bell notification. I don't say this to, you know, just get subscribers. Genuinely, there is a lot of— there are many videos that I filmed while I was in Korea and they are genuinely going to be very valuable. It's just, you know, they need time to be edited so I can't post them now. But otherwise, yeah, if you get a close above this, then that's going to be the start of an alt season. And with that said, you can see that Ethereum has been showing a lot more strength compared to Bitcoin. Because if you recall, Bitcoin is currently at this point right here, even though the chart looks the exact same. Meanwhile, Ethereum is sitting quite a bit higher. This goes the same for most of the major altcoins, but, you know, largely, mostly the large-cap coins like Ethereum and Solana and XRP, as well as BNB. So these have been holding really strong. However, I'm still not going to call a long for today simply because the daily bias is still pointing towards the short side. And right now we're getting kind of one impulse up, two impulse up before a change of state of delivery. And so right now this entire block here is going to act as resistance until proven otherwise. And so the setup for Ethereum today is also just going to be towards the short side. And you're probably going to target this right here at $3,923 as the intraday target. As for Solana, it is looking slightly weaker compared to Ethereum, although not by much. Again, same exact setup. All of these charts look the exact same right now. And that's also the reason why I never recommend you to take multiple entries on cryptocurrencies at the same time. Now with Solana though, you have relatively equal lows, right? This, this, this, this, like 4 relatively equal lows. And so the likelihood for Solana as a short, for me, I would rather take Solana rather than Ethereum as a short. And in this case, you have this resistance level here and you also have this one right here on the 1-hourly chart. So the setup is gonna be very similar to Bitcoin in the event that you retrace into either one of these levels. Then, you know, that's going to be a setup towards the short side. But otherwise, I wish I could tell you that price is going up. Unfortunately, we trade what the market is telling us, right? This is the same exact reason why most of the people following me were able to stay out of harm's way when that dip happened, and a lot of you were even able to take advantage of it. Reason being, this system works, right? It operates at an 80% win rate, and most importantly, we are all traders here with discipline to follow the system Even though we may want the market to go up. And so unfortunately, trade today is going to be towards the short side. Now me personally, I'm pretty sure I'm not going to be trading today for a couple of reasons. One, today's not a news day. And most likely though, I'm not going to be trading today because it is my birthday and I'm going to be going out. It's also the reason why I came back home yesterday so I could celebrate my birthday with, you know, my family. Reality of traveling so much is that I don't really get to see family much. But whenever I am able to come back home, I'm very happy to see my family. But otherwise, guys, really appreciate all of the support that you guys have shown me throughout this whole year, and it's not something I take lightly. Again, said it multiple times, and again, this is not something that I take lightly. I will continue to do my best. But otherwise, yeah, going to be enjoying the rest of this cigar. Probably gonna light one up. Probably gonna light another one up later. Special occasion one. But otherwise, like yeah, stay tuned and. Thank you for showing all the support and sticking around. Truly, I'm grateful. Ciao ciao.
