In this solo intraday market commentary, the creator provides a bearish outlook for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana on the day of publication. He begins by referencing his longer‑term outlook video and the recent lack of a trade in the VIP group after a failed reversal post‑Nvidia earnings. He explains that despite a bullish‑looking price action, higher‑timeframe order flow, daily, hourly, weekly and 5‑minute charts all retain a bearish bias, with Bitcoin sitting at a weekly fair‑value gap that should act as support for the next 3‑4 weeks. The speaker notes that his systematic trading approach struggles in ranging markets, citing recent weeks of strong trending performance versus the current choppy conditions. He introduces the “Power of 3” concept – using early‑day higher highs to sell into before a lower‑timeframe move – and applies it to today’s setup. For Bitcoin, he outlines two short‑trade scenarios: (1) a break below $91,800 followed by a retrace into a newly formed order block, or (2) a short after a brief rally toward $94,000 that fails to change the 1‑hour delivery state. He highlights the upcoming high‑impact news (U.S. non‑farm payrolls at 8:30 AM) and defines the optimal trading window as 7:30 AM–11:00 AM, with the primary intraday target around $88,600 and profit‑taking at 2R/3R levels. He then gives a concise Ethereum analysis, confirming a bearish daily bias, a key order block around $3,019, and an intraday target of $2,870 with similar risk‑reward guidelines. For Solana, he notes a relatively stronger price action but advises against trading it today due to misaligned time‑frame signals and the need to prioritize assets with clearer downside bias. Throughout, he promotes his VIP masterclass and live‑trade updates on X, and concludes with a reminder to watch the longer‑term outlook video for broader context.
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What's up guys, welcome back to another video. I'm gonna make another intraday call on Bitcoin today. It's looking pretty interesting so far. But before I get into today's video though, if you want my long-term kind of outlook on Bitcoin, just to understand what's going to happen over the next 2 to 3 months, I actually spent the first 10 minutes of yesterday's video breaking that all down. So if you would like the long-term outlook, I'm going to link the video down below. But otherwise, yeah, let's talk about yesterday's trade before we continue on to today's video. Now ultimately, we did mention that ideally we wanted to start looking for trades around 9:30 to like 11 AM, and the majority of the move that happened at 10:30 was to the downside. Nothing much that we could do there, to be honest, because once you got the CSD, you didn't quite retrace into it. So yesterday ended up being a no trade for me, including the people inside the VIP group. And speaking about the VIP group, we did call a reversal yesterday after Nvidia earnings. If you'd like to just get more kind of like inside update from myself, feel free to first sign up to the masterclass that's going to be happening in 9 days and Feel free to sign up for VIP if you want to get, you know, direct Q&A from myself. But otherwise, let's get into today's video. Starting things off on the daily chart, we have a bearish daily bias because yesterday we closed bearish. However, so far the price action is looking quite bullish, but we're going to try to break that down. Just understand that in terms of the higher time frame, we have not yet changed out of bearish order flow. In terms of the daily chart, in terms of the 1-hourly chart, in terms of even the weekly and the 5-minute, we are still looking pretty bearish. So the fact that we have a daily candle close towards the bearish direction yesterday is not necessarily going to be a bad thing when it comes to the intraday trades. The only thing that I would kind of keep in mind is the fact that at the moment we are sitting at this weekly order block— sorry, we're sitting at this weekly fair value gap at the moment, and we are expected to bounce from this area within the next, you know, 3 to 4 weeks. Again, I kind of broke it down in yesterday's video when I talked about the long-term outlook, and especially if you are swing trading, Kind of broke that down already, so I'm not going to get into that too much today. But just understand that even though we are at a bullish level, it doesn't mean that we just start going long right away. We only go long after we get confirmation from the markets that, hey, not only is order flow changing to the upside, but also market structure is changing to the upside. Until that happens, we are going to just stay put and continue trading what the market is telling us. And at the moment, so far, the daily bias is bearish, and so we're probably going to be looking for shorts today. Now, the only other caveat that I would kind of mention from yesterday's trade, now that I'm looking at the 1-hourly chart is that it's very clear that since, you know, the 18th, which is like a couple days ago, Bitcoin has been in a bit of a range. And if you know anything about this system, or at least if you've been watching more than one video over the last, you know, kind of 300 days that I've been making these daily videos, there's one thing that this system struggles with, which is ranging conditions. So it's perfectly normal for this system to struggle. It's perfectly normal to have days where, you know, we are expecting something to happen, but eventually You know, the criteria for the trade doesn't get met and we end up being a no trade. This has already happened once earlier this week, and it happened yesterday again. Just understand that this is not due to the system not working. It's simply, you know, you've got to take into account market conditions. There are cases where we get a couple of weeks of just really nice trending conditions, and the system performs amazingly. For example, last week I called 4 trades and 4 were winners. We basically, yeah, just made a whole lot of money. And this week, been a bit different. And it's not that the system doesn't work, right? You just got to take into account what the market conditions are like. But anyways, taking a look at the 1-hour chart, we have a bullish CSD, but I think this is going to be a little bit misleading because this is still a bearish order block that price is currently traded into. Let me just remove this weekly fair value gap not to confuse you guys. So just understand, at the moment, uh, we have started the day trading higher. If you know anything about the Power of 3, which I talk about quite often, When it comes to the Power of 3, right, if you are bearish for the day, you ideally want the day to— let's say this is the daily open— you want to see price actually go higher in the earlier parts of the day so that this gives you an opportunity to kind of sell high into the high of the day before the true move where, you know, it starts going lower. This has played out perfectly in last week's case. Even this week, it has played out quite nicely. This is a concept that is fractal, that applies to every timeframe. And once you understand how to use the Power of 3, this is something that is like magic. So this is a bit of a manipulation move, at least based on what I can see. And outside that, we have, you know, this order block, and we potentially have another one up here, although I do not expect this one to get filled, uh, for the reason that if this one gets filled, it's very likely that we're going to see a bullish change in state of delivery on the 1-hourly chart. And in the event that we get all the way up to $94,000, it's going to kind of invalidate this bearish scenario. So the way that I'm seeing it right now is that you either start falling from here, or at the moment you have this bearish order block that is being formed at the moment. And price is probably going to break lower by the time you watch this video. Something like this is probably going to happen. Now that we have our higher timeframe key levels marked down, let's go ahead and head down to the lower timeframes just to see what else we've got. And prior to the London session, you can see that the Asia session high was actually swept. And so far, the majority of London has been trading below the midpoint of Asia. Now, this is a— this is kind of a good sign. Because the fact that Asia highs has already been taken right into some sort of key level on a 1-hourly chart means that this is likely the manipulation, right? Potentially the high of the day. Now, this is not certain by any means, but it's a bit of information that we can use to our advantage. This so far is kind of like a value area that got broken below. Right now you're retesting a value area, and you are at the moment heading towards the downside. So right now there are only 2 possible scenarios that I would see for a short trade today. The first of which is that by the time you watch this video, in the event that you are breaking lower than $91,800, you're going to want to look for a retrace into this newly formed order block and for price to continue dumping. That's going to be scenario number 1. Scenario number 2 is that you potentially could come all the way up to, you know, again, fill this in without a 1-hourly change of state of delivery, and then you dump from that point onwards. As for which one I think is going to be more likely, I think this one makes a little bit more sense. This could be further kind of like broken down once we understand when news is going to happen. And if we take a look at the economic calendar today, we have news, nonfarm payrolls, which is an amazing piece of news, probably one of the highest probability piece of news that we are going to see all month, and it's going to be happening at 8:30 AM. So the ideal trading window for today is going to be anywhere between 7:30 AM to about 9:30 AM. Now also, we have another piece of news at 10 AM, so that extends the kind of trading window from 7:30 all the way up till 11 AM. Now, the reason why 7:30 is the key here is because usually when you have news, high-impact news, the hour before news to the hour after news tends to be the highest probability, you know, kind of trading window where you expect a trade setup to form around the hour before and for the trade to continue running until the hour after. So what you're going to want to look for is very simple. When you see this at around 7:30 AM, this is going to be the setup. If you see this around the hour of 7:30 AM, to 8:30 AM, then that is going to be the setup. Unfortunately, I do not have a crystal ball. I cannot tell you which one is going to be, you know, the scenario that happens. But what I can tell you is the likely scenarios that will happen today and the conditions required for these scenarios to get fulfilled. The intraday target for today is going to be remaining pretty straightforward. It's going to be just at 88,600. Now, I do not expect price to go all the way to 88,600, but in the event that you go here, it would be a good place to close out your intraday trades. Now, this is, of course, um, it goes without saying that most of your trades, you should take some sort of profit— 50%, 66%, 75%, whatever, it's up to you— at 2R. Which means by the time that you take this trade, let's say this is a sample trade, right? This is going to be 2R. Once you take some profit, your runner, you're going to take the rest there. At least this is so far the call for Bitcoin from an intraday perspective. As usual, if you would like to just follow along with my live trades, if you want to see exactly the trade that I am taking, or just follow along with more updates as the day goes, feel free to follow me on X because that's where I'm going to be posting the live trades. But outside of that, let's take a look at Ethereum real quick. Bearish daily bias, pretty straightforward. Going down to the 1-hourly chart, this is looking— well, at the very least, the bearish picture for Ethereum is a little bit more clear compared to Bitcoin because right now you're just trading into this bearish order block. And by the time you watch this video, it's very likely that you are going to break below this level right here at $3,019, basically. And if that happens, this is also going to become a new bearish order block. So you're just going to want to look to momentum trade this lower. So pretty straightforward in terms of ETH, and the intraday target remains very straightforward as well. $2,870 is what you're going to be looking at. And of course, take some profit at 2R, take some profit at 3R. Nothing too much to discuss there. Now, in terms of Solana, right off the get-go, I'm seeing that this is looking a little bit more bullish compared to the other 2 assets that we just took a look at. But still, the bias today is still going to be towards the downside. Although, given the choice between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, I'm definitely going to lean more towards Bitcoin and Ethereum for shorts, purely or simply by the fact that the charts look much weaker and Solana just looks, you know, relatively stronger compared to both of those, right? This is just using what is known as relative strength to determine which asset you should be prioritizing in the direction of the trade that you should take. But otherwise, in terms of the daily chart, just understand that right now we are trading into some sort of daily fair value gap. In the event that you come into this fair value gap, you are going You're going to want to look for price to actually go lower from this point onwards, or at this bearish order block right here. And the fair value gap in question is going to be at around $146. But that is going to be, you know, outside of the scope of the intraday trade that we're going to be calling today. Taking a look at Solana, you are fast approaching the range highs. I would even say, like, just avoid Solana for today because chances are, like, even if you go down from this point onwards, you are going to leave behind relatively equal highs, which means that You may have a short momentary, you know, kind of dump, but then you're going to come up, sweep out the liquidity before price continues heading lower. In terms of longs, I probably wouldn't go long on Solana either because the daily bias on Bitcoin and ETH is both towards the downside. A long on Solana would basically only work out if Bitcoin and Ethereum does not poop the bed tonight. So yeah, in terms of Solana, this is going to look like more of a no trade because we have a clear kind of like area where we would like to see price go before we start taking a trade. And also the 1-hourly kind of order flow as well as the daily bias is just Going in opposing directions, which is not what we want to see. Because ultimately, when we take any sort of trades, we want to look for timeframe alignment, which means if I'm taking a long on Solana, ideally I want the 5-minute, the 1-hourly, and the daily timeframe to all be pointing towards the upside, and vice versa for when I am looking for shorts. And in this very moment, you don't really have that. So I would much prioritize Bitcoin or ETH. And again, both are valid. By the time you see this video, this scenario that I've mentioned will already be in play. So yeah, hope you guys enjoyed. I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao.
