bitcoin: more dumps incoming?

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. I really hope you took the call that I painted out for you yesterday because that ended up being an absolute banger. Like, heck, the title of the video is Dump Incoming, Take Advantage of It, and look what happened on Bitcoin. And yesterday was a textbook example of what I mean every single time when I tell you guys that it's not about trading every single day. It's more about like, you know, occasionally you're going to get one trade that kind of pays for the entire week, or heck, entire month. Like, that move that happened yesterday is one of those trades where— I know I saw a lot of your comments on Twitter, and a lot of you ended up closing the trade out early. But in the event where, you know, if you manage to help hold out on those trades, and those trades are kind of like what you're aiming for, and you're able to risk a proportionally higher amount of money behind those trades because, well, they're A+, then yeah, you know, one trade could make the whole week or the month. And that's also the reason why you always hear me say Like, take a look at Monday. Like, if you guys were following along the price action from Monday and Tuesday, absolutely horrible. Wednesday, we ended up getting a loss, but conditions were okay. But Monday and Tuesday, even if you ended up being the best trader in the world, like, that would have been tough conditions to make it work because there was absolutely nothing happening. And it's so much better as a trader where you always like conserve your, you know, energy and your mental capital and your physical capital and just avoid those days entirely. Focus on the days where there is news and there is a reason for price to move and Dang, this type of trade is what you end up getting. But anyways, now that we have gotten a huge dump on Bitcoin, I'm going to break down what is going to be next and hopefully try to take advantage of another trade for today. And so far, uh, seems like price is already, you know, kind of dumping, which kind of leads me to believe that this is going to continue, like the volatility is not quite over. So, um, one thing that you definitely don't want to do in this phase is to buy the dip. Buy the dip. Now, the only thing that I will caution you against, and something that will almost guarantee that you are going to lose money, is buying the dip. Here's what most people don't realize about buying dips. When you buy a dip, right, you are buying with the assumption that, okay, when price hits this arbitrary level that you believe that it should bounce, once price hits it, it should bounce. As you and I may know through, you know, countless examples, that is not quite what happens most of the time. And that's because when you do that, fundamentally speaking, You are buying into a market that is dropping. Now, what does market that is dropping tell you? It's in a downtrend. Market structure is bearish. Order flow is bearish. It's reaching for some sort of sell-side liquidity. Or even if you don't understand that last part, it's bearish. Why would you buy into a market that's bearish? Correct kind of train of thought would be, okay, the trend is your friend. You trade bullish when you're in a bullish market. You sell when you're in a bearish market. So the correct thing to do in this case is to sell, not to look to buy. And if If your countless experiences with trying to catch the bottom has not already humbled you and perhaps taught you a lesson, let this be a fair warning that yes, prices are about $10,000, $20,000 lower than just a month ago. Is that a sign that tells you, hey, you should be buying right now? Because the truth is nobody knows when the dip is gonna end. And what we do know is that right now the market is incredibly bearish. I've been saying that it's been bearish for, you know, the last couple of weeks. To tell you guys, hey, position into shorts because it's what the market is showing at the moment. And for those of you that have followed along this channel, well, you would've taken advantage of every single major dip. Yes, we have lost money on these days right here where there were slight pumps, but for the most part, this and this more than makes up for it. And this is just the game of trading. I know I've spent this last like 4 or 5 minutes just kind of like ranting about some, you know, concepts, but truthfully, they are very important for you to understand. I know some of you may just want me to get right into the video and just, you know, Give you the trade, which I will do right now. So anyways, we have a bearish daily bias right now. We're going to be looking to short. And then now if we go down into the one-hourly chart, we can see that we potentially are going to have some sort of bearish order block forming. Now by the time you watch this video, and in about seven minutes and forty seconds, we're going to get this one-hourly candle close. I do expect that we will close below this level at what is this eighty two thousand one hundred. If we do, this validates this as a potential bearish order block, and we're just simply going to be looking for price to come into this bearish order block and then to form a five-minute. CISD down to the downside around the news window, which is from 7:30 AM, 8:30 AM, and potentially even 9:30 AM. Now, just to give you an idea of that news window yesterday, the ideal trading window would have been between 7:30 and 9:30 AM as well, where you are going to look for this 5-minute change in state of delivery to happen in between those couple of hours. Guess what? CISD occurred at 9:25 AM yesterday. Brilliant, right? It's no coincidence. Trust me, I've been doing this. I've been doing these daily live trading videos for like the better part of the last year, and there is a reason why we're able to sustain around a 75% win rate. From understanding that these news events and things that happen around these news events are not coincidences, if you know how to read the price action, you realize that a lot of this is priced in. And as long as you've got a good system to take advantage of it, guess what? You will. But anyways, once you see that 5-minute changes delivery around this order block at around the hours of again 7:30 to 9:30, yes, repeat after me, news window is The hour before news to the hour after news. That's when you look for these things to happen, because they— at around those times is when you get the highest probability of these things happening. Once you get that, go for a short. And let me just paint you a picture of exactly what you should look for, because yesterday is a prime example of that. So as you can see, the moment we start the New York kill zone, we don't really get any sort of bearish changes to delivery until potentially right here, right? This is the first instance of like a proper changes to delivery. And once you get that, take a look at the timing. 9:25, right? It matches that news window. Once that happens, you're going to be placing a limit at the line of the CIV. Place your stop at the whatever swing high that forms, and boom, right? You either target 2R, 3R, or in today's case, we're probably going to be targeting that low from the daily chart, which I will mark out right now if my screen is going to stop bugging out. Today we're going to target this low at exactly $80,000. Chances are like— sorry, $80,700 or like $600,000. Depends on what chart you're looking at. So right now, that's about $2,000 worth of price movement that we still have. And of course, don't get me wrong, like, this is just an initial target. If you see that price is kind of like just shooting straight through and still like having really strong momentum and it's not showing any signs of reversal, absolutely, by all means, hold for longer. But I wouldn't necessarily suggest going much lower or like setting a target much lower than $80,000, primarily because $80,000 is a whole number. It's a round number. As such, it is going to act as kind of a psychological kind of support. There's just going to be a lot of interest around that level. So personal opinion, I think just targeting this low right here at $80,500 is going to be more than enough. It's a $2,000 move. Even yesterday, the total amount of move that ended up happening from the CSD was going from $89,000 down to $84,000, actually $83,500. So that's about A $4,500-$5,500 move. Now, are you going to get a $4,500-$5,000 move today? Probably not. But is $2,000 of a move more than enough to make money? Absolutely. In fact, you can make really good money just catching a move that is worth a few hundred or even $1,000. But anyways, that's as a first target. If price continues to go strong, then yeah, you know, continue holding on to it. Now, if there's any one of you from yesterday who ended up holding trade all the way until today, drop a comment down below, like, because— Like, yeah, you know, the system works. What can I say? Anyways, yeah, the setup for today is going to be very straightforward. Let me just go to the 5-minute chart. So far, the London session has been chopping around. So yeah, I think the ideal setup today is just going to be looking for a break below that order block. Now, there is a potential that you could potentially come sweep back, you know, sweep these, you know, weak lows, and then potentially filling in these fair value gaps before— sorry, this fair value gap before you continue moving downwards. But either way, you're going to be looking for that 5-minute CIC. That's very key. Once you like either this forms and you do this, or you this forms and you do this. Either way, that five-minute CSD, right? When I tell you guys about news windows being increasing your probability of your trade by a lot, this is exactly what I mean. When you have news, guess what? You know things are priced in. There are market participants expecting something to happen around that time, and because of that, like all of these concepts that you've learned, right? Order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity—they just go much higher in probability. And so. If that CISD happens and around that news window, it holds so much more weight compared to something where it was just happening at a random time or in between kill zones or without news or whatever. Case in point, saw that play out on Monday and Tuesday where all of the conditions for a trade was met, but then because Monday and Tuesday were not newsdays and there was no catalyst, there was no reason for price to move, it didn't give us the result that we were looking for, right? Just a quick lesson right there. But otherwise, the setup today is going to be very simple, very straightforward. If price ends up going above 84,600, that is going to invalidate this trade idea because then at that point, order flow is going to turn bullish. But if that doesn't happen, then yeah, you're going to be looking for a short, very straightforward. And of course, if that 5-minute CSD does not happen in between the hours of 7:30 to 9:30 and price just continues putting in bullish, you know, kind of structure and order flow, then yeah, you're not going to trade, right? Just going to end up being a no-trade day. So I would assume that the setup is going to be very similar Compared to Ethereum, yep, Ethereum you already have a bearish order block to work with right now. In the event that you close below this order block, then yeah, this is going to become that new level. Very straightforward. It's going to be exactly the same chart. Now, is there one that I would prioritize over the other? I'd say that Ethereum is looking a little bit weaker compared to Bitcoin, but at the same time, like the setup on Bitcoin is just so clear that I think I would prioritize Bitcoin. But feel free to trade ETH if you know that is more your cup of tea. Right now, one thing's for sure: you already have that five-minute CSD. But again. Doesn't line up with that news window, so we're going to just ignore it for now. But the overall setup is just super similar with Solana. You're coming back into this order block right here. So far, you do not have a bearish order block yet because you do need Solana to close below 113.75. So yeah, in the event that this happens, then this will be validated. But so far, Solana does look like it has a little bit more relative strength compared to Bitcoin, which is not the end of the world. But just keep that in mind as you head into trading today, where Bitcoin would probably be your first option. Ethereum is your second, and I would personally avoid Solana. Now, as a quick little bonus, I'm not sure if you trade USD Canadian, but there's USD Canadian news today. So if anyone's trading forex, just understand that within that same news window, you don't necessarily have to trade crypto because USD Canadian is very likely to give you a very solid trade. But outside of that, guys, I will keep you guys posted throughout today on Twitter, especially as we approach that news window. But otherwise, I am going to go visit One of my first night markets in Taiwan, thanks to. But yeah, otherwise gonna start hitting the night market. I know it opens once a week on Fridays, so not gonna miss it. Catch you guys later. Ciao ciao.