In this solo YouTube commentary, cryptocurrency trader Roman Ceccardi provides an intraday technical analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, outlining his systematic approach to short‑bias trading. He begins by referencing a recent successful trade that followed a "3 drives" pattern, noting a personal win‑rate of 123 wins out of 154 calls (≈80%). He then walks through daily and 1‑hour charts, identifying bullish and bearish order blocks, fair‑value gaps, and liquidity‑sweep zones. Ceccardi explains two primary bearish scenarios: (1) a quick breakdown with a retrace, and (2) a breakdown that first sweeps short‑side highs before a later entry. He emphasizes the core tenet of his system—time‑frame alignment—requiring the daily bias and lower‑timeframe bias to agree before taking a trade. He warns against chasing bottoms, advocating entry on confirmed moves. Throughout, he promotes his free upcoming masterclass and a newsletter for live trade updates, urging viewers to follow his Twitter for real‑time signals. The video concludes with a brief Solana analysis, noting its relatively stronger bullish potential but still recommending a short setup pending a break below a specific hourly level.
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What's up, you guys? Welcome back to another video. The call from yesterday was splendid. Ended up going for that 3 drives pattern and ultimately started dumping. This is once more a prime example of even though we have reasons to believe that, you know, the market is going up, at the end of the day, we need to trade the system. And the system yesterday was pointing towards downside. And so that's why we ended up taking the trade. And that is a beautiful win. So I think that if I'm not mistaken, that is win number 123 out of the last 154 trades called on this YouTube channel. Anyway, Anyways, today I'm gonna break down what's going on with Bitcoin. Gonna talk about ETH, gonna talk about Solana, and ultimately just give you the setup for today. So yeah, without any further ado. And also congrats to everyone that was following me on Twitter yesterday because I ended up calling the live trade. So, you know, to everyone that was following along, I saw quite a few, you know, mentions of profits, spot on call. So yeah, uh, more to come. Again, this is just another reminder to follow me on my Twitter because ultimately this is where I'm gonna be sharing any live trades. If I do take any. But without any further ado, let's dive into the charts for today. We're going to start things off by removing everything on the chart just to not clog it up. Taking a look at the daily chart, obviously we are bearish, but we're currently inside a bullish order block at the moment, which again, we have reason to believe that price can pump from here. But we're still going to trade the system, and the system at the moment says that, you know, if you have a bearish daily candle close, you're going to look for shorts, at least for the moment. Going down into the 1-hourly chart, now this could change Pretty quickly though, in the event that we get a candle close above this level at 111,800, you could potentially start you know shifting to a long. Potentially right now you even already have some sort of an inverse heads and shoulders pattern. So if this happens, like we may very well just flip our bias to the long side just because of the confluence that we may be having on the daily chart at the moment. But for now, like in terms of the one hourly chart, we're going to mark this bearish. Order block right here. Well, I'm just going to keep that bearish— sorry, that bullish order block from the daily chart intact, but just not to be confused, that is from the daily chart. You have obviously a bearish order block over here, and you have a bearish fair value gap over here. And no, guys, this is not a feverty gap. This is a fair value gap. Fair value gap. Spoken very fast. It's called a fair value gap. Anyways, that's a fair value gap. So ultimately, if price comes into any of these 3 levels, we are actually, just based on the higher hybrid bias and based on the daily bias, we're actually looking for more downside rather than upside. We'll see if the lower timeframe gives us a different picture though. So lower timeframe, you can see that the Asia low has already been swept, but most of the London trading has been above the Asia high, which means at the moment the Asia high has already been swept. But I can see that there are relatively equal lows over here, which means that, well, just like how we managed to predict yesterday that relatively equal lows were a magnet for liquidity for price to actually sweep it out, this is going to be a similar story. So in the event, so there's going to be like 2 You know, shortened scenarios today, basically. The first one's going to be, well, A, price sweeps out these short side— price sweeps out these relatively equal highs before forming a bearish shaky state of delivery to the downside, for one. Or 2, price just continues dumping straight on from this point onwards, and yeah, we just trade it alongside the momentum, just like we did yesterday. So in the event that you get a breakdown here and you retrace, that's going to be scenario one. Scenario 2 is that, well, you're still going to get a breakdown, but you may sweep out these highs first. Before that. So in the second scenario, you're going to be entering much later. And in the first scenario, well, obviously you're going to be entering pretty quick. That is the breakdown on Bitcoin. And again, there is a potential bullish scenario here in the fact that, you know, you could break above here and you could, you know, start going up. But ultimately, that's not going to be the setup that I will be taking because, well, A, yesterday has already been a very good example of how, you know, we had reasons to believe that it was bullish, but Ultimately, at the end of the day, we follow the system because the system is a very profitable one. Ultimately, this is something that wins on an 80% win rate. And when you have a system like that, you know, you trust it. And one of the core tenets within the system is that we need timeframe alignment. That is getting close to evening time. There's a mosquito situation. It's not the best. I'm gonna try to get this over with as soon as possible. So anyways, like I was saying, one of the core tenets within the system is that you want timeframe alignment before you pick any trades, which means that if you are planning to go long, you want your 1-hour timeframe to be pointing up. But also at the same time, your daily timeframe, which just means that at the moment, the daily bias is down and it's not going to change until tomorrow. And so it's never too late today to let the price break through that order block right there, even break through this bearish order block, right? If we end up here by the time tomorrow rolls around, we're gonna be in such a better, like more favorable position to go long rather than, you know, try to jump in too early into, you know, catching the bottom. Because ultimately at the moment, This is bearish order flow from the one hourly chart all the way up to the daily chart. So tomorrow, if we get into this, at the very least, we're going to have way better confirmations. And that equates to, yeah, sure, we may miss the bottom, but at least we're getting in on a confirmed move, which means we're much less likely to lose the trade. And well, we're much less likely to make money. This is the same kind of like train of thought that we've used this week. If you guys recall on Monday and Tuesday, I told you guys like, yeah, If you can try to avoid trading on Monday and Tuesday because there was no news. Ideally, you even want to be trading on Wednesday because that's when you have Federal Funds Rate. That's when you have FOMC. Look at what happened yesterday, right? In a single, like in a couple of hours or like in a few hours, in the span of a few hours, you have made more of a movement compared to the last couple of days combined. And so just another reminder that how much money you make trading is not up to the amount of trades that you take or the amount of screen time that you put into staring at the charts. It's much more about your decision quality. And ultimately just taking trades that are confirmed, that align with the system, everything aligns and it's A+. It's a very tough concept to wrap your mind around because ultimately in society we are, you know, kind of conditioned. The idea is that, yeah, if I, you know, if I usually work 8 hours, but this week I work 10 hours a day, then I should be paid more. That's just how society works. But that's not the same way. It's not the same kind of logic that applies to trading. Trading, you could realistically be trading just 5 minutes a week, but if you manage to catch an A+ setup, In that 5 minutes, you're gonna make way more money than someone who spent like 5 days straight staring at the charts, taking 50 trades. It's just the reality of it. So yeah, if it starts going long, I'm probably not gonna take it, but I will still give you guys an update on Twitter. So yeah, follow me there if you wanna get that update. But otherwise, speaking about updates, in a month from now, I'm gonna be holding a masterclass teaching you exactly, breaking down this system step by step. It's gonna be completely for free, by the way. Just that the swaps are probably gonna be capped because it will be a free masterclass. If you would like to sign up to that or like be one of the first ones to sign up to that, click the first link in the description box below. Like join the newsletter because people on the newsletter are going to be the first to be notified of this free masterclass that is going to be launching. Well, or at least the signups are gonna be launching very soon. But otherwise, just one last note. If price continues to just break down from here, like just look for retracements and continue trading it down. Nothing too complicated in regards to that. You don't necessarily have to wait for the sweep because the sweep is just a part of like one potential scenario that could happen. It may or may not happen. So just trade what price is telling you at the moment. Price is falling, and so it's a very safe thing to do just to continue trading lower. So this was also the other trade that was called yesterday on Twitter on Ethereum, and yeah, very successful. In fact, the TP was hit before like a retracement even happened, but Yeah, you had a solid 10 minutes to get in on this trade if you're following it live. Just the reality of intraday trading. Anyways, going down to— sorry, up to the daily bias, we are having a bearish daily bias on the 1-hour chart. Very similar setup to Bitcoin. In this case, you really want to see this zone here getting broken through before you start taking longs, because in the event that you— let's say, all right, you come up to here— as long as you do not break that, it's just going to be a retracement level for price to ultimately head towards, well, To hit further down, so I'd be just in the event that price comes into this level, you're going to sweep out these relatively equal highs. That's going to be an ideal setup. Now, by the time you watch this video, if price happens to already have broken down, for example, this new order block right here, you can feel free to just trade this again. We can trade this lower. Pretty straightforward. Everything is just pointing towards the short side today. But again, it's not our job here as traders to try to catch bottoms. One of my favorite sayings, in fact. In all of trading is that top pickers and bottom pickers usually end up becoming pattern pickers. It's just not a very profitable thing to do to try to predict where the bottom is going to be. You would much rather get in on a confirmed move rather than you speculate. And so far, the Asia high has not yet been swept. So potentially, if you get this, that's going to be an ideal setup. But otherwise, you already got a change of state delivery, which means right here is already a solid entry. Placing a stop above here and targeting for two off. This is already valid now. Man, I am getting assaulted. I am getting absolutely assaulted here. Crazy. Look, I'm just gonna wrap this up with Solana. Taking a look at the 5-minute— sorry, taking a look at the daily chart, uh, that is a bearish daily bias in fact, um, but not as bearish compared to Ethereum and Bitcoin. Like Solana yesterday actually did a pretty good pump prior to the dump, which is unlike Bitcoin and Solana— sorry, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, which did not pump much and then just straight up dumped. Even that wasn't that big compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. So Solana relatively has much more strength. So in the event that you are looking for a long Bitcoin, hence, well, Solana is just going to be a little bit better compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum. But otherwise, the setup for today is still going to be short. Although the short setup today is going to be very ambiguous because you already recently just got a CSD on the 1-hourly chart, which means that, you know, yes, price is already starting to head lower, but You know, you're just kind of following a range here. So it's a little bit tough to say. What I would say as the short setup is going to be a break, like an hourly close below this level right here at 191.7. You bet that you get that retrace, boom, go down. And that is going to be the setup on Solana. And guys, I'm about to hit it right now because I'm getting absolutely hammered, assaulted by these mosquitoes, which is crazy.
