In this solo market commentary, the creator opens with a personal update—recovering from influenza after a Vietnam trip and noting a perfect 4‑for‑4 trade record for the year. He then outlines his daily trading plan, focusing on a bearish bias for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Key technical concepts include a bearish order block, overlapping fair‑value gaps, and the importance of timing windows surrounding two scheduled news releases (8:30 am and 10:00 am). He explains that the optimal entry period is the hour before and after each news event, with a narrower window of 7:30‑8:30 am and 9:00‑10:00 am for Bitcoin. The expected market structure is an Asia‑London breakout followed by a New York continuation, mirroring recent successful trades. Risk management advice stresses taking a full‑risk (L3) position on high‑probability days and confronting past trading trauma through journaling. Ethereum is presented with a similar bearish setup, while Solana shows a bullish daily bias but is advised to be avoided because its price is likely to follow Bitcoin’s direction. The segment then shifts to USD/CAD, highlighting a bullish daily bias, double bullish CSD, and a bullish order block, again tying entry timing to the 8:30 am news window. Throughout, the presenter emphasizes monitoring order flow, using news windows as high‑probability opportunities, and maintaining a disciplined, psychologically aware trading mindset. The video concludes with New Year wishes and a sign‑off.
Chapters
What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. I did not end up posting a video yesterday, but when it came time to trade, um, I was with you guys for a solid hour and a lot of people made money. At least I hope so. But otherwise, we're starting the year off strong at 4 wins out of 4 trades called so far throughout this year. And yeah, if you guys want to follow along with the live trades, feel free to just, you know, follow me on X. This is where I'm going to be posting any live entries if I end up posting. But otherwise, do apologize for yesterday. I didn't post a video because I basically ended up getting influenza after coming home from the trip from Vietnam. And yeah, wasn't fun. I was basically just completely knocked out yesterday, just sleeping. And I slept through the entirety of when I was supposed to record the video. So not fun. But anyways, I'm back today feeling a little bit better. And so yeah, going to get into the daily setup for Bitcoin. Kicking things off, we have so far a bearish daily bias in terms of Bitcoin. And so we're going to be looking for a short today. In terms of the hourly order flow, we can see that we have already left behind some sort of bearish order block over there. So in the event that we return back to that area, we're going to want to trade that lower. And of course, the timing that you're going to want to look for is between 7 to 10 AM. In fact, let me kind of narrow that down for you because we might get news today if I remember correctly. Yeah, we have 2 pieces of news, one at 8:30 and another one at 10 AM. So this gives us a timing window. We can narrow down the timing window to basically 7:30 to 8:30. Is going to be window number 1, and the second window is going to be starting at 9 AM to around 10 AM. Basically, the hour leading up to news to the hour after news tends to be the timing when we tend to get our highest probability opportunities. Now, besides that, you can also argue that price is in the middle of filling in some sort of fair value gap at the moment, and over here you have another fair value gap as well that kind of overlaps with that order block. So either way, it's looking pretty bearish. And when you come into the timing window, like, one thing's for sure, I'm not trading now because as you approach the timing window, um, right now It's about 6:30, so this is nowhere close to being the New York kill zone yet. And the fact that we have 2 pieces of news means that you kind of want to prioritize that. And when that happens, that's when I'm going to be jumping in. That's when I'm going to be posting stuff on Twitter. Feel free to follow me there. But otherwise, in terms of the 5-minute, what I can see so far is that this is very likely going to end up being some sort of an Asia-London breakout with a New York continuation. Basically the exact same profile as we saw yesterday. The trade that I called was You know, London breaking down of Asia, and then yeah, this was just New York continuation, and that was a beautiful little trade. In fact, the day before was also the same thing where London break below the Asia, came back to retest the Asia low, and New York continuation. So we're going to be looking for that type of setup rather than the setup on Monday, which shout out to this week, by the way. Like, this week in the markets has just been so clean, like it's ridiculous how clean it has been. I really hope that you guys managed to caught catch some good trades because like, yeah, with 4 pieces of news this week being also like the first week of the year, we tend to have higher volatility. And if you guys did not manage to make any good trades, you really want to kind of— you do want to rethink like what is the reason why you didn't, you know, end up getting any trades because by all accounts these were high probability market conditions. If you're dealing with some sort of trauma or, you know, past pain or whatever, it's a good time right now to just kind of like Reflect, write it on your journal, and, you know, fix these issues because there is absolutely no reason why you should not be making money in these types of market conditions. Proof is in the pudding. I'm like 4 out of 4 at the moment. But otherwise, yeah, so far looking like an ABC. Nothing too much to talk about there. In terms of Ethereum, let's take a look at the daily chart. You're also looking pretty bearish. Now, in terms of which one is more bearish, time will tell once we go into the lower timeframes. So yeah, Bitcoin is definitely looking quite similar compared to Ethereum. Ethereum, you also left behind this big order block. Right now you're returning back into it. Ideal timing window is just the hour leading up to the news and the hour after news. So first piece of news is at 8, second piece of news is at 10, just plus 1 hour before, 1 hour after. That's going to be your ideal trading window. And this thing that you're looking for specifically is just the M5 CUSD. Basically, you want to see the order flow on the M5 start shifting towards the downside. You could argue that right now price is putting in really bullish order flow heading into this H1 PD array. The thing that changes that is if you start doing this, right? When you do a change of state of delivery, that's when— granted, this needs to happen at the key timing window. If it does, then yeah, you get into the trade. Simple as that. Today's a news day, and most likely it's going to end up being an L3 trade, which means that you go full risk because by all accounts considered a high probability day. So you definitely don't want to be chickening out by going like half risk or whatever because you have had some past trauma some recent pain that you've gone through. Anyways, Solana is painting a different picture here. Solana is actually on a bullish daily bias, but it's one of those moments where, you know, we're projecting a bearish trade for Bitcoin, and if Bitcoin ends up dumping, then Solana is going to dump as well. So ideally, you should be staying away from Solana, like just stick to Ethereum or Bitcoin because it's more in line with the overall kind of daily bias of Bitcoin. Bitcoin's kind of the mama bear, as much as we, you know, would like to ignore it and As much as I would just like to tell you, oh yeah, you know, just just go for just go for Solana because well, Solana pump good for our bags. But the fact of the matter is that we cannot ignore Bitcoin because Bitcoin dumps then Solana will dump as well. So far you've got a hourly CSD already, and let me just take a look at the five-minute chart. Yeah, so far London has broken below the Asia low, and you have been trading underneath the midpoint of the Asia so far. And this is not a really great sign because. You know, ideally break back into the mid-range so that you can reclaim the range and start going up. So far, definitely looking slightly bearish on Solana. But in terms of like comparatively speaking, compared to, well, that's a lot of compares, but compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana is definitely looking slightly less bearish. So since our trade today is prioritizing the short side, I think it will be a really good idea to just focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Now on the other note, we have Canadian news as well at 8:30. So I'm just going to dedicate a couple of minutes to talking about USD/CAD. There's something that I love to do when I'm trading, which is like, I don't necessarily look at forex pairs until there is news for that pair, because you automatically just come in at a time where you're most likely to have some sort of high probability opportunity. So in terms of the daily chart, you are bullish. You have a fair value gap over there. I don't know if we will dump into that fair value gap later, but if we do, then that's going to be an area where we would be interested. In terms of the daily chart, you've also gotten a bullish CSD over here. Like this is a very convincing one. In fact, you have double CSD, so Canadian dollar by all accounts is looking really bullish compared to the US dollar. In terms of the one hour timeframe, you have also a bullish order block right here, which has already formed. And outside of that, yeah, you're just kind of waiting for the news window. The only kind of concern that would be like you have a couple of relatively close over there. And just before I move on, let's see if I miss anything. Not really. So yeah, in terms of 5 minutes, let's take a look. London has just been kind of like chopping around. So yeah, there are 2 ways that this kind of plays out. One is you start, you know, forming bullish order flow as you head towards the news window. For those of you that are confused about what the news window is, it's basically the hour leading up to the news and the hour after news. Those are usually the highest probability trading windows, especially for any chart. Secondly, is that you sweep out these lows before some kind of movement towards the upside during the news window. So I don't know which is going to happen. What's important is you start monitoring the chart as you get closer to the news. Again, news is 8:30, so you kind of want to start looking at the chart at 7:30. And yeah, if you see bullish order flow, that's already enough for you to jump into it because the hourly is already in bullish order flow. So you don't have to— you don't have to wait for this, right? You can always just— as long as the confirmations are there, you take the trade. If you get stopped out, okay, guess what? You can always re-enter later on. That's how you approach this as a trader, or at least that's how I'm approaching this as a trader. Otherwise, with that said, Happy New Year to all of you guys, and I will see you next week on the next video. Ciao ciao!
