Bitcoin: My setup for today

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. We had a lot of things happen throughout the weekend. Obviously some geopolitical tensions are really high right now. Case in point, there is a war going on and Bitcoin is still doing absolutely nothing. I'm going to try to break down what is going to be the move for Bitcoin and even like besides Bitcoin, because right now oil is up like 12% over the weekend, which is unprecedented, right? Last time we saw a move like this was probably when Russia invaded Ukraine and potentially even back in the 2003 kind of like Iran War. When, you know, the Strait of Hormuz was being, you know, kind of pressured. And that led to like real genuine fundamental factors that drove the oil prices up. Now, besides oil, you're seeing, you know, the dollar index starting the week off with a, you know, pretty big bang. And yet Bitcoin is doing absolutely nothing. And then brings on the question like, why is this happening right now? I've made a video on this recently. Like, I've literally just filmed a video right before I started filming this on what is the reason why. So we're gonna, like, I'm gonna post that onto, you know, YouTube. I'm gonna post this onto Instagram once it gets, you know, edited a little bit. But just understand that right now there is real potential in other assets outside of Bitcoin just because of how in this time of uncertainty, the fact that Bitcoin is considered a risk asset means that a lot of people are going to be going for the safe haven assets, right? You're looking at gold pumping a lot. You're looking at dollar index pumping a lot. At the end of the day, when there is uncertainty, people flock towards the dollar. Still the world's reserve currency, so you know people feel safe having dollars. And this is just a form of de-risking. And unfortunately, Bitcoin, much like the stock market actually—you're seeing Nasdaq and the S&P go down by quite a lot to start the week—they are considered risk assets. And during times of uncertainty, risk assets tends to be the first one that goes. And this is just very normal market behavior. And yet Bitcoin is doing absolutely nothing, which kind of puts us in a tough spot because. We as traders, we need volatility in order to, to do something. And the worst time to be a trader, to be honest, especially as traders using the system on this channel, is when the market is ranging. And but still, we're going to try to break it down. And let's kick things off with the weekly chart where we are looking at a bearish trade, and the weekly bias is going to be bearish. Now, this makes total sense because right now, not only do you have relatively equal lows over here, but this previous weekly target over here has not yet been taken. If you guys recall from last week, this was the target that we were looking at throughout last week. So I do expect at some point throughout this week we will hit $60K. And no, the bottom is not in. This is not some accumulation or whatever. Accumulation usually comes after some sort of liquidity sweep. So at the very least, even if you don't go all the way down to $60K, you will go to at the very least $62,400, in my opinion. And of course, it's fair and all to set like weekly targets, but we do need volatility in order to get that. I don't know, like the volatility is the one thing that I cannot predict. While I understand, hey, you know, with the war happening right now and with potentially a lot of news coming this week, you know, we might be looking at a pretty volatile week. But again, like I can only guess when it comes to that. Like volatility is the one thing that I cannot predict. But I can tell you for a fact that the market is not going to go up in any sort of major meaningful way until at least this level is taken out. And right now, getting back into the daily chart just to understand like what is the daily setup for today. So far, we have a bearish daily bias, but also Mondays, like you guys know how Mondays go. It is the first day of the week. In fact, this is the first Monday of the month. And if you know anything about quarterly theory, the markets is usually split up into 4 phases. You have an accumulation phase, a manipulation phase, a distribution phase, and followed by some sort of a reversal or continuation phase. And accumulation is usually one of the worst kind of like phases to trade in this overall kind of market cycle. Because it's hard to determine direction. And case in point, the— like, I've been publicly documenting my trades for the past year now. Like, for the past 365 days, I've taken about 180 to 190 trades. And the majority of my losses— like, right now I have a 75% win rate, and the majority of my losses comes on Mondays. Why? Because even if everything on price action tends to line up, A, on Mondays you usually do not have news, and B, it tends to be the accumulation day, right? It's the opening range of the week. And so that makes it harder to trade, um, just purely based on like, okay, everything on price action can line up, but then you're just not going to get to the end result that you're looking for purely because it is subpar market conditions. There's something that people don't really talk about, but the market conditions— like, price action is fair and all, right? Things happening on price action is important, but you also have to think about the timing. If, for example, if you get an order block forming at like 5 minutes before CPI, that's going to have more weight compared to if you have an order block forming at a random time during the Asia session or whatever. Now, I'm not hating on the Asia session, but we all know a New York news event kind of time period is going to be stronger than just some random other time in the day. So now that I've mentioned that, right, now that I've talked about that spiel, it's important to also understand that right now we are in a range. And this is a range high, there's a range low. To any pattern traders here, you will think, oh yeah, it's a wedge, it's triangle, whatever. What's important to understand is that all of this simply boils down to one word: it's choppy, right? It's in a range. There is not much volatility. And the moment you identify that you are within a range, the opportunity within ranges lies above the range high and below the range low. Contrary to popular belief, when you, you know, when you're in a range, you don't just draw a fib from like top to bottom of the range and then, oh, anywhere below the 50% is a discount, anywhere above the 50% is premium. No, the fundamental like kind of mechanism of ranges is that the range high tends to get taken and then followed by movement towards the range low, and vice versa. If you take out the range low, you tend to go back to the range high. So that also translates to the premium opportunity, right? Premium meaning areas— good areas that you can short from is above the range high, and good areas where you can buy from, which is discount, is below the range low. It's not in the middle. The middle is where everybody loses their money. This is the retail decimator zone, right? This is not where you want to be taking trades. In fact, the market makers tend to do this. Like, the reason why ranges happen is, well, usually there's a lack of volume. Usually when you're in the middle of a range, this is where everybody goes to duck. The problem with being in the middle of a range is that you can make a reasonable argument for, hey, I see a change in set delivery right now. I think that price is going to go towards the downside. But at the same time, I can also make an argument like, hey, we have a bunch of relative equal highs here. Liquidity should be swept first before it goes down. The problem— and herein lies the problem— you can make an argument for both sides of the equation. And if you cannot even accurately determine, like, with a reasonable degree of certainty that you're going to lean towards one direction over the other, how are you supposed to trade? Am I supposed to go for a long? Am I supposed to go for a short? Where am I supposed to take a stop loss? Should I place it all the way up here? Should I place it all the way down there just to, you know, kind of take into account that we're going to get some sort of a range sweep? No. And that is the problem with ranges, or rather, that is the problem with trading in the middle of a range. So speaking of which, like my system that I've used, you know, that I've been publicly documenting my trades from, is a system that is fundamentally a trend trading system, which also means that I'm not looking to trade ranges. In fact, it tends to perform pretty poorly when it comes to ranging situations. So I will, like whatever analysis that I'm gonna share today, just understand like if you are someone that trades ranges, this is gonna be the setup for the day. Essentially, you're gonna wait for a sweep above the range high during the New York session, and that is going to translate to anywhere between 7 to 10 AM New York, unless we have news today. Oh, we do in fact have news. Wonderful, which makes today a potential high probability trading day. So I think the setup that we're going to look for, even myself actually, like now that I've— now that I understand that we have news today, I am going to be looking for this setup where if we sweep above the range highs, basically sweeping above $67,300, I'm going to be looking for a 5-minute change of state delivery between the hours of 7 to— sorry, 9 AM to 11 AM New York. Why? Because today we have news at 10 AM. And when you have news on a certain day, it makes the highest probability trading window for that day the hour before news to the hour after news. Hence why we're going to be looking for our setups between 9 to 11. Basically, sweep above 5-minute CIC towards the downside. That is going to be the setup. And secondly is we may or may not just get a movement straight towards the range low. And if that happens, I'm going to be looking for a, basically a break below 65,500. If that happens between the hours of 9 AM to 11 AM, I'm just going to go for a little momentum trade. targeting the range lows and potentially even going for a little bit of a range breakout. But again, in this case, like, this would definitely be the ideal setup. Um, this would be the A+ setup because this also aligns with the daily bias. But in the event that you get this, like, it's a clear enough condition to where, all right, that is a very obvious CSD to the point where it's going to be pretty unlikely that you're going to go sweep the range highs. And the fact that today has news adds kind of like the cherry on top. I, I would have a completely different stance on Mondays there is no news. And you guys know this. When there is news on Monday, it basically means that you're going to get a much more higher probability setup than, you know, just any old Monday. So that is going to be what I'm looking for for today. And in terms of Ethereum, so far, like, it's going to be pretty much the exact same setup, except like, I think with Ethereum, you are getting some sort of SMT, where Bitcoin, you form higher lows, and Ethereum, you're forming lower lows. So this is a really positive sign. And essentially, like the same situation here, if you get a candle close below there, you're going to be looking for that setup. But otherwise, you're going to be looking for a sweep above the Asia high around that news window. Find XUSD, and that is going to be a trade towards the downside. As usual, I'll be posting any sort of live trades on my Twitter, so feel free to follow me there. Like, it's not like all of my live executions are just publicly documented. It's not being hidden behind some signals group or whatever. Obviously, executions usually include like Bitcoin, Even if I trade other stuff, which I do trade other stuff, like, it's probably just a little bit irrelevant to post it onto Twitter considering that most of you following me here tends to trade crypto. And when I say trade other stuff, usually it's closer to the traditional side of things. But otherwise, as far as Solana goes, you're also going to be looking for the exact same setup. Like, again, when Bitcoin is dumping, all of these altcoin assets tend to look exactly the same. Today I might lean towards You know Bitcoin a little bit more compared to Ethereum. Let's just take a look real quick if there are any other targets for Solana. So Solana actually has some very nice targets where you have some relative equal lows all the way down at 77 as well as 76. So basically, this is going to be the setup that you're looking for for Solana. Yeah, I would actually lean towards Solana and Bitcoin just because they have like really clear targets. As for Ethereum, just a tiny bit less doesn't mean that it's bad, but if I had a choice, I would pick. on Bitcoin just because their targets just make a little bit more sense where, you know, liquidity is kind of like stacked up together rather than with Ethereum. If you can see it here, like the liquidity is quite far away. Meanwhile, on Bitcoin, it's like, yeah, these are clearly relatively good lows. And overall, in terms of a like slightly longer-term perspective, you're also within some sort of a range. So that is going to be the setup, like if the Wi-Fi is going to load. Wi-Fi has been a real issue here so far. But yeah, like as you can see right there, very clearly in some sort of a range, and like, it just makes sense for us to sweep the range lows at some point. Like, we're currently in a situation where it's kind of like rangeception, where within this, you know, smaller intraday range, we're also within a weekly range, and then within the weekly range, we're also within some sort of a monthly range. So just understand that these are not conditions that the system performs well in. So if you have been struggling so far, myself included, like February is one of the worst months that I've had, Since I started documenting this stuff, and I guess that's the that's the beautiful thing about journaling and documenting your trades. You get to understand when are bad periods and why. And so far, because we have been in a range for the better part of this entire year, it's really normal that the system struggling. Although at some point volatility is going to return, and like in a like right now this during this period, the system may be struggling, but. once we get into more volatility, you're gonna see some other traders who are making a killing right now, they're gonna start struggling. Why? Because there is no system under the sun that's going to be optimized for both ranging conditions and trending conditions. When you optimize for one, you naturally lose out on the other. And the market always fluctuates between, you know, periods of ranging and periods of trending. And it's just like your turn, my turn, right? Every system will have its market condition where it will shine. And right now, unfortunately, it's not the right time. But that will also change because at some point we're going to be the ones making bank and we're going to be the ones laughing at other people who are not making money. But at the same time, it's also stupid to do that because like what I mentioned already, it just boils down to market conditions. But otherwise, I'll see you guys on Twitter later. For now, I'm going to get going. Ciao ciao.