In this solo YouTube video Roman Ceccardi provides an intraday Bitcoin trade analysis for the NFP‑driven Friday. He begins by reviewing yesterday’s successful setup, updating his win‑rate tally (≈80% since February) and emphasizing the importance of counting community feedback on trade outcomes. He then outlines his analytical workflow: start with the daily chart to establish a bullish higher‑timeframe bias, then drill down to the 1‑hour chart to locate a bullish order block that was retraced during the Asian session. Ceccardi explains three possible scenarios for the upcoming New York session – a bullish sweep of the low leading to a rapid pump, a retracement into the order block without a sweep, or a deeper decline down to $94,000 while remaining in an uptrend. He ties these scenarios to order‑flow concepts, describing how bullish or bearish order blocks and fair‑value gaps signal liquidity sweeps. The upcoming non‑farm payroll (NFP) release is highlighted as a catalyst for heightened volatility, and he provides concrete entry, stop‑loss, and target guidelines (2R minimum, up to 2.5R) for each scenario. Throughout, he stresses the trader’s role in preparing multiple outcomes and reacting swiftly. The video concludes with a promotion for a free 2‑hour masterclass on six essential trading skills, especially scenario planning, and a call‑to‑action for viewers to subscribe and share their results.
Chapters
What's good everybody, welcome back to another video. Yesterday's Bitcoin setup was so picture perfect, like I couldn't have said it better myself. You guys remember yesterday I said that if there was going to be a setup yesterday, it's probably like— this is probably the most obvious one and probably going to be the only one. And indeed, once we broke out of it, we confirmed the changes there, delivery, retrace back into the order block, boom, 2R. Instant, easy, clean. Of course, there is always this target right here which will give you a 2.5R. So this, I think, remains the intraday Type of trade for today. Open and close within the hour. My only hope was that I could have gotten the video out sooner for you guys, and the bias yesterday was also picture perfect in the sense that we were predicting price to go higher. And so today I'm going to give you guys the update. But before I do, it's time to update this. So yesterday we were sitting at 44 out of 56, I believe, with a five-point win. And yesterday I asked you guys to let me know if you guys think it's a win or a loss. Over here we have a win. Good advice. Count it. Okay, that's win, I guess. Hey Casey, what's up? I guess I'm going to claim this as a win. Back to shirtless summertime trading again. Absolutely, man. I am shirtless at the moment that I'm recording this as well, which is also the reason why I haven't turned on the camera. It is getting hot here and it's not because of the wins that we've been pulling off. So count this as a win. Count this as a win. And one guy, Kevin, I respect the honesty. If stop loss was hit, no win IMO. No problem. Based on the majority advice, I'm going to just count it as a win. Like, so that puts us Our running total up to 45 and 57, I believe, which is close to 80%. And with the win from yesterday, that puts us up to 46 and 58, which I think we're definitely getting close to the 80% number. So for those of you who are new to this channel, welcome. Just understand that you are in the right place because these are all publicly called analyses. Basically, I give you a breakdown for the day, and if it comes true, then we count it as a win, and if it doesn't, then we count it as a loss. So far, we're doing about 80%. In terms of win rate since February, and I'm going to continue to, you know, maintain the momentum and just keep going from here. So starting things off today on Bitcoin, it's time to first go on to the daily chart because we always start from a higher timeframe before we go into the lower timeframe. The big mistake people make is that they start from the lower timeframe and then they got lost in all the noise, and then they forget the fact that you're supposed to be trading in line with the higher timeframe flow. And taking a look at the higher timeframe, yesterday's daily candle closed pretty bullish, and so today the daily bias is going to be towards the upside. But secondly, just understanding the fact that we are currently in bullish order flow at the moment. Which means that even if you do not pump today, you would you want to be looking for retracements into bullish PD arrays or a sell side liquidity sweep that will ultimately lead to higher prices, which was the thesis that we came up with yesterday, which was exactly what we did in the trade yesterday, right? We looked for a change in state of delivery, for a change in order flow on the lower time frames, and then boom, we ended up trading in line with the higher time frame order flow. There were I guarantee you there were a lot of people on Twitter. And you know, wherever who were calling that this was you know quote unquote a market structure break. And this is the problem that you run into if you only understand market structure and if you only study the lower time frames. Because if you were to have kept the higher time frame flow in mind, you would have been able to see that hey, you're not supposed to be looking for shorts here. You're not supposed to be going into this bearish fair value gap or like after this quote unquote resistance got swept. You're not supposed to short from there because your higher time frame flow is where's the upside. You would not be able to see that if you were purely on the one hourly chart. That's why. That's why it's so important to keep the higher time frame in mind and always start your analysis off on the higher time frame. Now, understanding the higher time frame though, yesterday, because our daily bias was bullish, that means that today we are also looking for some kind of a bullish move. And immediately, based on what I can see from the 1-hourly time frame, I can see that we are in a bullish order block at the moment. We retraced back into it during the Asia session, at which point we started pumping, although London pretty much reversed that entire Asian move. And currently we are getting really close to the Asian lows. So I think even though today is going to be a bullish day, there are only really a couple of possibilities that this could play out. One is that you're going to go for another sell-side liquidity sweep, given the fact that right now it's about the end of the London session, right? It's about 5:30 AM. So it's only about an hour and a half until the New York session starts. Anywhere between 7 to 10 AM, you want to look for price to actually sweep this low right here and to give you some kind of a bullish reaction to take a long. But otherwise, if that doesn't happen, If you start, you know, coming into this level and then getting rejected off of this block, for example, during the New York session, then chances are you are going to actually go for a retrace, which would not be surprising. Like, it wouldn't be alarming actually, because right now you have a daily fair value gap right here. It doesn't matter if you go all the way, even halfway to this candle, as long as you're not getting candle closes underneath $94,000, you're actually still pretty bullish. I would even say that this is a daily bullish order block, right? So you can quite literally retrace all the way down to $94,000. As long as you're not closing below this, you're actually still safe. The bullish trend is still And so today, even though the daily bias is supposed to be bullish, I could see a world where we do not get a pump and we just retrace into here, fill this in, and then maybe Saturday we chop around, Sunday, Monday, and then we start moving again. Now, one thing to keep in mind just to help predict whether or not volatility is going to be coming in is today at 8 AM we have non-farm payrolls, or as the forex guys would say, NFP. So today is NFP Friday, which means that more likely than not, it's gonna be a pretty volatile day. So based on that, I'm going to talk to you about the first scenario. I do think that is probably more likely, although again, it's hard to say because you want to be looking at the behavior of price at certain timings. In this case, 7 to 10 AM, you either get a sweep here and you start pumping. That's going to be scenario number 1. And I'm going to give you the exact breakdown on what to look for to confirm, you know, what a pump is. Second is you break down, retrace, you do not get a change in order flow, and you continue going downwards. Now remember, you can go down anywhere until $94,000 and you're going to be safe. The uptrend will be safe. And then the third scenario is that we do not even touch this level in the first place. We are currently, if you guys remember, this is a bullish order block, right? Which means if we get a change in state of delivery above this block right now, this can validate this as a bullish order block. Although, would I take this as an A+ setup? Absolutely not. Why? Because right now you have one low and two lows. In fact, these are, you know, flat candles, which means that currently this is looking like kind— this is looking like a magnet for liquidity for price to sweep everyone out before doing a reversal move. That's at least— that's what I think will happen based on experience. I've seen this happen one too many times to not, you know, call this. But if you do get a change in delivery convincingly and New York session, right, let's say in the next couple of hours you pump, you retrace, New York session, you know, 8 AM, and then boom, this is also a likely scenario, which means for today you have a couple of setups. One is going to be right here on this order block, and you're going to target 2R at a very minimum. So that's going to, you know, be taking out yesterday's previous daily high, which would make sense. That would be the target for the Daily bias. Secondly is that you get a sweep underneath these levels, right? Maybe underneath this level as well. And then New York, you start pumping, and then your entry is probably going to look somewhere here, stop here, and then your target 2R or even here for about 3 to 4 hours. And the third scenario is that you start breaking down and going lower. Now again, it's hard for me to say which one's going to come true at the moment because ultimately one thing you need to understand is that the job of a trader is to prepare for, you know, multiple scenarios. And when they do happen, it's like, boom, you just react. You're already prepared for it. And so with that said though, I'm going to show you like exactly what to look for in the lower timeframes in order to confirm what is known as a pump. And the keyword here is that you want to pay attention to order flow. Order flow means that in bearish order flow, bearish PD arrays such as bearish order blocks and bearish fair value gaps are being respected, right? That's bearish order flow. Basically, from this point here, right, price comes back into bearish order block. Boom, it goes down, forms a new bearish order block. All right. And it keeps going down, right? The bearish order blocks are respected. So in this entire leg here, you have bearish order flow. Now, this could be changing though, because right now you are in bullish order flow. If you take a look here, you have your bullish order blocks, right? That's bullish order block is respected. That's another bullish order block, and currently it looks like it's being respected. Another thing that kind of points me towards the upside, by the way, and why I don't think this is going to be likely to happen now that I zoom into the lower time frame, is the fact that right now London, you have just taken out Asia lows. For those of you who have been following this channel anytime within this week, you know I have called more than one, you know, Asia AMD kind of setup. The other day was on Tuesday where we had Asia here, and then we manipulated below the Asia lows and a boom, right? Off we went. And currently it's looking like a pretty similar setup. The only problem is right now you've left behind relatively equal lows, right? That's the only consideration as to why I think, um, you know, you may get a sweep before price continues. But Overall, like, just read the order flow, especially when you get closer and closer to the news event. I'm just giving you guys the scenarios so that you're ready for whatever happens, so that you are able to make money regardless. And speaking about these trading skills, in about 9 days I'm going to be hosting a masterclass, guys. This is absolutely free. I'm going to be teaching you the 6 skills that you need in order to go full-time into trading. One of them is how to think in terms of scenarios, how to properly plan out scenarios in a way where you're not, you know, thinking about too many scenarios so that you start overthinking, but not too little so that you get fixated on one of those scenarios. And for those of you who have joined the masterclasses before, you know this is 2 hours straight of value. It's not going to be any fluff, not going to be any BS. If you are struggling in trading right now and you're kind of stuck, you know you should be making more but you're not sure what the hell is wrong, then I would highly recommend you sign up to this masterclass in the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, guys, the setup for Bitcoin today is, well, to be determined. You just want to look for bullish order flow once either This bullish order block gets closed above, right, during the New York session. Either that, or once you get a sweep below these lows, you want to look for bullish order flow to confirm that you have a move. Chances are, if this happens, you really want to see it happen instantly, right? Almost instantly, because it's going to be 8 AM. There's not going to be any news. It's Friday. It's the last day of the week. So if it doesn't happen instantly, then, you know, expect the day to end up being kind of like a retracement day, and for this previous day's high to not get tapped. But ideally we see a change of delivery on the 1-hourly confirming that bullish order block, and then just for price to be delivered cleanly towards the upside. If you get that, then literally just momentum trade. But otherwise, right now we're wrapping up a very solid week with wins throughout the entire week. And if you guys love these analyses from the smart money perspective on crypto, then make sure you subscribe because I'll be coming to you guys with these videos more and more often. And drop a comment down below if you have made any money. Using the analyses that I have been giving you guys so diligently on YouTube. But otherwise, I will see you guys in the next one. Take care, have a great weekend. Bye-bye.
