Bitcoin: Not Looking Good On The HTF...

Right, welcome back to another video. Last week's trade ended up being straight up a no trade. If you guys remember in the video, I said that you needed an hourly CSD above this level before you can go for any sort of longs, and ultimately we didn't get it and price ended up dumping instead. But anyways, in today's video I'm going to break down the intraday setup for Bitcoin, I'm going to break down the weekly setup for Bitcoin, and let me tell you, um, this is not looking too good, at least for bulls. Uh, we're here to trade, so ultimately whether the market goes up or down, we are able to still make money. But just understand that in terms of bulls, it's going to be looking a little bit shaky. But just a heads up, Blueprint is now closed, which means that, well, I'm not sure when we're going to be opening doors again. But one thing's for sure, I'm going to be going all in to helping everyone within Blueprint just get to a point where they can go full-time into trading within the next 90 days. So yeah, at least for the moment, I will have nothing to offer you. So let's just get right into the video. So in terms of the weekly bias, we closed bearish last week. And so we're looking for bearish trades at the very least heading into this week. And The way that we're going to approach this is that if we get any sort of movement above the weekly open, which currently the weekly open is here, this will give us the opportunity to sell high into the real move that is probably going to go towards the downside. And so far, starting Monday, we're already trading towards the upside. So it doesn't mean that we're going to immediately start shorting, but the moment I go down into the daily chart, I think is when we are going to start seeing things in more detail. So first of all, if we take a look at the daily chart, the overall structure, we've had this liquidity level get taken out. And not only that, but you formed a CSD immediately after as well. This is known as a broken base. But in general, this is a strong high followed by a CSD followed by a bearish weekly bias. So if there's one signal over the last, like, basically since the 22nd of November, so basically the last 3 weeks, that is telling you that the market is about to start making the next move towards the downside, I think it's going to be this one right here. Of course, this one can get invalidated and The invalidation in this case is if you get a candle close above 93,350, you will invalidate that bearish order block and you will actually treat it— well, you'll essentially flip it and turn it into support instead. So in the event that that happens, great, you know, for bulls. But at least for the moment, all signs seem to be pointing towards the downside. If we take a look at the immediate market structure, if we just take a look at the immediate price action, and even if you kind of zoom out, I don't think it gets any more optimistic because so far you're not only forming lower lows and lower highs, which means in terms of market structure, you are pretty bearish, but You are also getting rejected off of bearish order blocks, and that has been happening for the most part, for the better part of the last like three four months, which means that currently you're in bearish order flow. So far you've had one two like potentially three moves up, but then you're already breaking market structure very aggressively, and this is right after filling in some sort of daily order block. So it's not looking too positive in terms of the bulls. But one thing's for sure: either today or tomorrow we're going to be looking for shorts. Now secondly, let's just take a quick look at the news. In terms of news, you can see that primarily we're going to get USD news on Tuesday as. Well as Thursday. So those 2 days are going to be kind of like the key trading days for this week, meaning if you're able to just like straight up no trade on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday and just focus all of your attention on Tuesday and Thursday, chances are the real move of the week, the one that I talked about earlier in the weekly chart, where if we go above the weekly open before the true move happens on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday towards the downside, that's kind of the scenario that we want to keep in mind at the moment. And before you start thinking that, oh, this power of 3 thing is just like a lot of woo-woo, I have used this time and time and time again, basically across every week. I've even used that same concept alone to be able to predict like this massive dump right here that happened. It basically predicted every major dump. And of course, I say dump because like the last 3 months has just been bearish. And like, yeah, this is a concept that works. So just understand that setup for this week, if I were to map it out on a day-by-day basis, Monday, Tuesday, and then Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and then the Friday you will start kind of like ranging, kind of like what we saw this Saturday as well. So Now that that makes sense, let's start getting into the intraday trade for the day. And in terms of intraday, we're definitely looking for shorts, at least just based off of yesterday's daily candle close. But besides that, guys, if there's one thing I have to tell you before I continue on with this video is that if you take a look at this Saturday and Sunday, it has been just completely dead. Like, there's basically a complete lack of price action. And for those of you that have been watching this channel, and if you have been trying to trade this you know, price action over the course of the last week, I'm sure you have struggled much like myself. And one thing I do need to assure you is that if you've struggled in like these types of market conditions, this is not a problem. This system that we are trading right now that has achieved us about an 80% win rate over the last like 300 days is primarily a system that thrives in trending conditions, which means when the market is making clear directional movement, we're able to make so much money from it, it's not even It's not even funny. This, of course, has a very high accuracy rate in predicting like the overall largest move of the next day as well. But the moment that it struggles is when you get into some sort of a range like what you're seeing today, like what you're seeing here on this 1-hourly chart. For the most part, you are just trading within a range, and it's no wonder that this system struggles because a lot of this, like a big part of this system involves like having multiple days of like trending price action and As you can see from the last 3 weeks or so of price action, we have not had more than like a 3-day period of like a one, like a unidirectional movement. For the most part, you're up, you're down, you're up, you're down, you're up, you're down. And this is not something that this system thrives on. And that's not necessarily a bug because there are 2 primary trading systems out there. One is a trend trading system, which is what this is. And secondly, you have range trading systems. Now, unfortunately, you cannot really optimize for both because when you try to catch 2 chickens at the same time, probably not going to catch either one. So when you optimize for both, you're not great at either. So just understand that these are tough trading conditions. Now, why did I spend 2 minutes just discussing like the trend, like this ranging conditions? Because we're about to head into Christmas week. Now, this week is very likely going to be the final trading week where we're going to get like just good price action. One thing to understand is that if during the weekends you see the market makers just completely disappear from the face of the earth and like there is Yeah, sure, crypto is a 24/7 market, but like you've seen it time and time again, right? Saturday has absolutely no trading volume. We assume that that is true. Then I want you to take a look at the price action when we get closer to the end of the year. So starting Christmas week is when a lot of the volatility tends to die down. So last year we got a little Christmas dump and ultimately like a New Year pump. So this one's a bit of an anomaly. But if we take a look at, let's say, 2024. But let's say if we take a look at 2023, starting Christmas week, All the way till basically like the first week of New Year, it's pretty dead. And even the week leading up to Christmas can be pretty dead sometimes. Now, going back to 2022, let's take a look at Christmas. So heading up into Christmas week, it was just completely dead. And then volume potentially starts picking up sometime during the first to second week of January. Realistically speaking, second week of January. Now I can go find a bunch of different examples, but just understand that if we head into the end of the year and potentially even the start of the year, we can expect things to start slowing down a little bit. Now, I'm still going to try to trade this, and I'm still going to be making these videos, don't worry, because even when we have a lack of volatility, we can still catch some pretty decent setups, especially if we only focus on the news days. So just understand that, you know, this is something that is not going to be surprising in the event that it happens. But enough talk about the higher timeframe, let's start getting into the intraday setup for today. So, so far we have a little value area over here. that we've already formed. In the event that we return back into this value area, we're going to be looking for this as resistance. Now that's option number A, which at the moment price does not seem to be respecting this because even after you tapped into this zone here, price seems to be edging up very convincingly towards— well, slowly but surely towards that level. Second level that you need to understand is that there is a bearish fair value gap over there. So both of these are potential levels of resistance. And in the event that you fill in this fair value gap, you are going to sweep above the value area high. Now one of the common misconceptions when that people make when they do volume profiling is that they assume the value area is going to be some sort of support or resistance level. That is not true. The inefficiencies within a value area that you can take advantage of is actually above the value area high and below the value area low. Essentially, if you're bearish, then you want to look for shorts above the value area high. If you're bullish, you want to look for buys below the value area low. It's the same thing with a range, right? When you have a range, anything within the range is not where the asymmetric opportunities arise. When you are in a range, you want to short the range highs and you want to go long once price sweeps below the range low, much like what you've seen so far here on this one hourly chart. So every single time you go above the range high, boom, right? That's an opportunity to go all the way back to the range low. And right now you just swept the range low. Not a guarantee that you are going to go back to the range high, but just understand that the opportunities in the value area is above the value area. In the event that you sweep out the highs, fill in this fair value gap, I think that sets a really nice precedent for price to just dump lower. Starting tomorrow. It may not necessarily happen today, but tomorrow for sure. And this will, you know, you just be retracing deeper into this bearish fair value gap in that case. But either way, in terms of the 5-minute chart, let's take a look. Um, today the setup is going to be pretty straightforward. Either you tap into this area or you tap into this area. Either way, you're going to sweep out the Asia highs. Uh, once that happens, if you get a change in state of delivery towards the downside on the 5-minute chart, then that is going to be your trigger. You will look for this to happen anywhere between 7 AM to 10 AM New York. And if that happens, then yeah, that's your trigger. And as usual, I'll be posting the trade setup on X if you guys want to follow along the live trades. But otherwise, just understand that this week asymmetric opportunities most likely going to be Tuesday and Thursday. Today there is no news, if possible at all. If you can avoid trading today, it's going to be very beneficial. But if you do take a trade today, just look for shorts because that's what the daily bias is telling us. And just understand you do not— like, you want to wait for more confirmations because today is not an A+ day. So you either adapt to this in 2 ways. One, you lower the amount of risk that you take on any trades that you take today. Or secondly, you wait for as many confirmations as possible, as many undeniable confirmations as possible before you dive into the trade. If there are days where you can just kind of like go Rambo mode and just take trades, like screw it, then those would be news days where, you know, you have timeframe alignment and all that stuff. But unfortunately, that's not one of those days. Yep. Play it safe, adapt to the subpar market conditions, and ultimately, yeah, you're going to be looking for a short either taking out the Asia high or in the event that you have already broken down by the time that you watch this video around 7 AM to 10 AM, then you can just momentum trade things lower. Basically, as more and more order blocks and fair value gaps form, you're just going to trade those lower. Just understand that today, um, if there is going to be a possible setup, it's just going to be an AMD basically. Just accumulation, London manipulates London/New York manipulates above the Asia high, and then you get distribution during the New York morning towards the downside. Today could also just end up being a really choppy day before, like, we fill in this fair value gap right here, and then tomorrow we get the aggressive movement down. Again, I'm not an oracle. I cannot predict what the market's going to do, but I can give you some higher probability outcomes, or like just high probability likely to happen type of scenarios, which is ultimately what I'm trying to do here on this channel. But anyways, just going to cover Ethereum and Solana real quick. So Ethereum, actually, funnily enough, it got a bullish Weekly close, which means technically this week's bias should be towards the upside. Unfortunately, we are probably not going to be looking for bullish trades on Ethereum unless Bitcoin really makes a some sort of a miracle comeback because so far you're trading into this bearish resistance and in the event that you close below this level right here at 3021, that is going to be a bearish change in state of delivery towards the downside and that is going to be happening on the daily chart, which is not a great thing. Secondly, yesterday we closed bearish, so technically you should be looking for a bearish trade today. Already you have filled. That fair value gap, just much like Bitcoin. You have swept above those relative equal highs, and so far, basically, in the event that on the one-hourly chart you break below, like the trigger for today is going to be breaking below 3107. If you break below 3107 by the time you watch this video, you're just going to be trading the five-minute all the way down. Basically, when you get bearish CSD, so it's essentially the same setup as Bitcoin, just that Ethereum has already filled that level. So looking slightly more bullish, but just understand that if Bitcoin dumps, Ethereum is going to dump as well. So that's The reason why we're not looking for any bullish trades. Solana closed bearish on the weekly chart, so we are going to be bearish on the week. And secondly, we have a bearish daily candle close, so we're looking for bearish trades. Secondly and thirdly, we have a bearish order block right here that price is kind of trading into. In this case, you have relatively equal lows that you could potentially sweep out first before you start going short, which I would highly expect to happen. Is it going to happen today? I don't know. But like in general, like this is the overall kind of like move that you want to look for either today, tomorrow, Wednesday. Um, but even for today, let's go down into the 5-minute chart just to see if there's any potential setup. I think ideally you still want to wait for a sweep of the Asia highs, but in the event that you watch this video and price is already doing something like this between the hours of 7 to 10 AM, you already feel free, like feel free to just take it. But otherwise, I think I've rambled on for enough today. I'll see you guys later on X. And to everyone that joined Blueprint, welcome. You did not make the wrong decision and like we're going to get you funded over the next like 90 to 120 days. Anyways, let's get to work. Ciao ciao.