In this solo YouTube commentary, the creator provides a detailed Bitcoin market analysis for the day, beginning with a review of recent performance (a recent loss bringing his win‑rate to 85/104) and an explanation of why Tuesday trading is generally more favorable. He outlines a bullish weekly thesis based on the "Law of Power of 3," expecting an initial retracement followed by a true weekly expansion. The daily chart shows a bearish close, creating a misalignment with the weekly bias, so he advises lower‑risk positioning and waiting for stronger confirmations. Shifting to a bottom‑up approach due to the lack of timeframe alignment, he predicts a potential ABC setup, highlighting key zones such as order blocks, fair‑value gaps, and strong lows on the 1‑hour and 15‑minute charts. He emphasizes the importance of a 5‑minute Change of State (CSD) as the decisive entry signal for a long trade, and outlines his risk‑reward target (2R, with possible higher multiples if the price reaches the prior daily high). Throughout, he stresses accountability by tracking win‑rate, posting trade calls on Twitter (@TheArtOfCrypto), and encouraging viewers to follow his systematic methodology. The video concludes with a conditional long call contingent on the CSD, otherwise a no‑trade day, and a call‑to‑action to book a coaching call via the description link.
Chapters
What's good, guys? Yesterday we ultimately ended up getting that sweep beneath this low, but ultimately, even though with a 5-minute CIST we took a trade, I called it on Twitter, this is the proof, uh, we got stopped out. And it is what it is. Like, we've already mentioned the fact, like, I went on extensively yesterday about the importance of having, well, rather trading on a Tuesday. Yesterday was not a Tuesday, and I did mention that at the start of the week we could definitely see just a retracement down below. before the rest of the week goes up. Because if you take a look at news, the majority of news is today, tomorrow, Thursday, Friday— basically the rest of the week we're going to have news, which means that this is going to be a much better trading week compared to the last 6 days that we've had, especially from last week where there was completely zero news and price was just chopping around. So overall, this is really promising. But just to keep myself accountable, um, for those of you who are new to this channel, just understand that I do publicly track all of these, you know, videos in terms of their win rate. And yeah, with yesterday's loss, I think that puts us to 85 out of 104 because my last, like my last call was also a loss. It is what it is. Last week and yesterday was a little bit tougher of a trading week. And yeah, if you are looking to just get more, you know, up-to-date updates, don't know if that makes sense, feel free to follow me on my Twitter because this is where I will call in trades as discussed in the videos. Not always, but if I'm taking a trade, it's going to be called on there. But otherwise, let's get into today's video. And to kick things off, again, the weekly is still really bullish. I'm only realizing now that the camera is bugging out again. So if you happen to see like the screen kind of freeze, don't worry about it. It's not your problem. It's probably just a camera issue. Anyways, I will try to get this video over with pretty quickly though. So last week closed really bullish. Again, based on the Law of Power of 3, we can definitely look for an initial retracement to form the low of the week sometime during the week before a further upside, or rather the true weekly expansion. Okay, if you're bullish on the week, basically expect a retracement. And this retracement here that goes underneath the weekly open is an opportunity for you to buy low and then sell high once you get the expansion. And so this is definitely what's been going on yesterday. And so overall, you're still bullish. Now, for those of you who are swing trading, this is the fair value gap from last week that I've been talking about basically the entire week. It already got filled and it already closed towards the upside, which is exactly what we want to see when when it comes to a bullish reaction on Bitcoin, which means this week we are very much safe to trade, you know, continue trading long. Now, of course, there is always probabilities to trading. Nothing is ever certain, but this puts the probability in our odds. We can safely say that the likelihood of this week going higher is, well, it's more likely to happen compared to the bearish scenario. And so that's the, you know, thesis that we're going to be trading from. If you're a swing trader, the ideal entry would have been here, but even if you are, If you missed that, just understand that with last week's bullish weekly close, this now becomes the new order block, which means throughout this entire— well, I don't want to say entire, but throughout yesterday we've been retracing into this order block. And this also plays into what our Q3 thesis where retrace and then you get a true power of three expansion towards the upside. So this is all still playing out really nicely. Now on the daily chart, this is where we start running into a slight bit of an issue because yesterday closed. Bearish. And ideally, if we want to trade long, we want yesterday's candle to also be bullish because that indicates that today's daily bias is towards the upside. This is going to be much more clear once we go into the lower time frames, but just understand that due to the fact that we do not have time frame alignment on the daily chart, today's trade, whatever I'm going to call, which is most likely going to be a long trade, you will find out in just a bit, that the chances of this winning is going to be just a tiny bit less, right? And so the way we want to treat this is not to like, oh yeah, today we're just not going to trade. But if we're going to trade, go a little bit lower risk, okay? And wait, you know, just be a bit more cautious in general. Wait for the right confirmations to be in place before you go in. And, you know, just play it a bit more safe today, purely because we do not have timeframe alignment at the moment. Overall though, this is a strong low. You have swept out both of these lows, as I have discussed throughout last week. So this is already a strong low. Now all we want to see This week is a close above 120, and that will indicate a daily bullish change in state of delivery. And yeah, like everything is just going to go up from that point onwards. And this is of course being discussed on the daily chart, so just expect this to at least take a few days to play out at the very minimum. But anyways, now that the daily chart is over with, let's get into the lower time frames. Now lower time frames-wise, I'm going to remove this because, well, yesterday's scenario has already played out. We have already lost. Today is to be pretty straightforward because we have, you know, proof that, hey, you know, ideally we want to be looking for longs this week. And as well as the fact that currently for the majority of the London session— in fact, London is already over because I'm recording this now at a proper timing of 5:15 AM— we're already trading majority of London above the Asia high. This is a really good sign if you want to look for today's setup, which is potentially an ABC kind of setup. So essentially, we are kind of like reasoning from bottom to up. In this case. Usually I would say, okay, with the daily bias, if it's bullish, then we look for bullish PD arrays on the 1-hourly chart to, you know, trade from. And then we go into the 15-minute chart or the 5-minute chart to confirm the thesis, right? That's top-down analysis. But today is a bit different, right? Because the daily bias is not aligned with our overall direction. And so I have to reason from the bottom up this time around. And in this case, again, because the majority of London has been trading above Asia, we can Predict that today is probably going to be an ABC type setup. Now, I could be completely mistaken, and we indeed like we eventually get our AMD instead. Basically, Asia accumulation, London manipulates, right? Trick everyone into thinking that price is going to go higher, and then New York just starts dumping. This would align with the daily bias. So, but again, we do not know this yet because we do not have the right confirmations yet. And this is one of the reasons why I just enjoy. Not enjoy, but like straight up, I choose to only trade on days where we have full timeframe alignment. When you have no timeframe alignment, guess what? I'm going to be guessing here, right? I'm going to be kind of like grasping at straws. Sure, I may be right sometimes, I may be wrong sometimes, but overall, like if you like kind of plot this out towards the long term, your success as a trader is predicated on taking the high quality decision over the lower quality decision over time, right? If you can do that for a couple of years, guess what? You're going to compound your account. You're probably going to hit 7 figures in funding. And overall, you're just going to achieve like freedom from trading, right? That's what it means to be a good trader or to trade well. Now, unfortunately, due to the nature of YouTube and the fact that I am making daily videos, I still have to make a call today. It is what it is. But just understand that today is a lower probability day. And ideally, I'll probably be waiting for tomorrow. Like, for example, if today's daily candle closes bullish, and then yeah, tomorrow's just going to be that much higher quality of a trading day. So just understand again, this is the reason why today is going to be— we're going to play it a bit more safe. And the other reason is, of course, like we're reasoning from the bottom up this time around. Ideally, you want to be reasoning top-down, not bottom-up. So again, I'm already kind of justifying this trade to myself at the moment, but still, we can still read a couple of things from the chart today. So that leads me on. Now that we have, you know, a reasonable prediction that today is going to be an ABC setup, we're going to look for areas of interest where price could retrace to before going towards the upside. And in this case, it's going to be this bullish order block over here and this fair value gap over here on the 1-hour chart. Another thing that kind of gives confluence to a potential long setup today is the fact that these relatively equal lows back here has already been swept, which means that this is a strong low. The only problem is right now you also have relatively equal lows over here. Now, is this going to get swept today? I don't know. I can, like, but I'll give you both scenarios so that you can make a judgment for yourself. So back to the 15-minute. Now, the only thing you want to look for is that, hey, these lows are definitely going to get swept. These are relatively equal lows. So expect, you know, from now, like 5 AM to 7 AM-ish, You are going to start going lower. Now, whether or not you come fill in this fair value gap or you bounce from this order block, I don't know. I cannot predict that. In fact, my job as a trader is not even to predict like where the bottom is going to be. It's just marking out areas of interest. Once the price heads into those areas of interest, then what— like, as long as we see confirmations on the lower timeframe that, hey, you know, order flow is going in the direction that we want it to, then we can start trading, right? Whether or not it comes to here, it comes to here, doesn't matter. What matters is once you're here, look for the reaction. Going down into the 5-minute, the thing that you want to look for specifically is for bullish order flow. Now, what does that mean? Now, this is a state of bearish order flow, right? For example, you have this bearish order block right here. Price breaks down, comes back up, gets rejected from this bearish order block, and forms a new low. Now, this eventually changes because, like, this is your new bearish order block. And then price, if it's still in bearish order flow, it should get rejected from the bearish order block and start heading lower. But it does not, right? This time it invalidates it. This is a change in order flow. This is what you want to look for. I want you to picture for a moment, if you spend the next couple of hours going lower, you're going to be in bearish order flow. Now, you do not enter until you get a change in order flow towards the upside on the 5-minute chart specifically. When you get that, I will potentially call this on Twitter. And if I don't call it on Twitter, then use your judgment. Just look for bullish order flow because, like, we can have a theory that price will bounce from these areas, but that is just what we think is going to happen. What's important is that the market also confirms this theory before you jump in. Okay, your TP again, as usual, is going to be 2R. This is what I recommend to the majority of people— just go for 2R. And if not, then potentially you could look for either one of these targets to get hit, especially the previous daily high right here at 119,800. If you go up to there, then you're potentially looking at a 3, 4, maybe even 5R trade depending on where you enter. Now, before I get into the bearish scenario, if you've been watching these videos for a while, One, you know that it works, and two, if you enjoy the way that I, you know, systematically trade, and if you would like to learn this for yourself, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. Book a call. Otherwise, let's move on to the bearish scenario. In this case, it would be simply put, like once price comes into these areas and you do not get a change in state of delivery, yeah, you're just going to keep trading this lower. Now I've already kind of like outlined my overall like direction, and a higher timeframe direction is towards the upside. But again, Today we have not yet seen higher time frame confirmations that it is indeed going to the upside. I will still take a bet that potentially if you get that CSD, you will go to the upside. But if that CSD doesn't happen, then today is just going to be straight up no trade because I am not looking personally to be taking shorts here. So my call is towards the long side, but only if you get the M5 CSD. If that doesn't happen, then I'm just going to mark today as a no call. And of course, like, if you like just up to date on what trade I'm going to be looking to take, feel free to follow me on Twitter, _TheArtOfCrypto. That's where I'm going to be posting these updates. Otherwise, hopefully this gives you a really solid idea on what to expect for today, and I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye-bye.
