In this video Roman Ceccardi delivers a live market‑analysis and trading‑strategy briefing focused on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. He starts by confirming a bullish daily bias for Bitcoin, citing a breakout from range, a new high, and a confirmed Change‑of‑State Delivery (CSD) on the daily chart that creates future support. He explains that the current retracement is likely heading toward a fair‑value gap, which he views as a short‑term target for the week. Moving to lower timeframes, he stresses the need for a 5‑minute CSD to validate the bullish thesis, and describes the role of order blocks, hourly PD (price‑delivery) arrays, and the importance of aligning multiple timeframes before entering a trade. He outlines risk‑management rules: a maximum of two trades per day, half‑risk positioning on non‑news days, and a “two‑bullet” rule to prevent revenge trading. Session dynamics are discussed, noting that the Asia low was swept during the London session, setting up a typical pattern of Asia accumulation, London manipulation, and New York distribution. He then compares assets: Ethereum shows stronger relative strength than Bitcoin and is prioritized for long trades, while Solana lags behind but is bouncing off an hourly PD array. Throughout, he promotes a free live‑trading event and a 30‑day live‑trading program, directing viewers to links in the description. The video concludes with a brief sign‑off.
Chapters
What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday we had a nice clean movement on Bitcoin and today is looking pretty similar. So let me just dive right into the video and break down the setup that you should be watching out for today. So far, the daily bias is bullish. As I've already mentioned, you should be expecting some sort of a bullish movement throughout the rest of the week simply because A, you have finally broken out of the range, you have retested and you have now formed a new high. Besides forming the new high, you have also confirmed one more CSD towards the upside on the daily chart, which means that this entire block here is going to act as future support when you come back down into it. Besides that, it is very clear right now that Bitcoin is in an uptrend. Do I mean that the bottom is in? I don't mean that, but I don't mean that because, well, just take a look at the overall like higher timeframe market structure. You can see that this is potentially just going to be a retracement into this fair value gap over here before prices dump, which is going to be my short-term target for, um, well, the rest of this week and potentially even the next. Seeing how we are right now incredibly bullish, well, let's take advantage of it. So far the daily bias is bullish. Now, if we go down into the lower timeframes, we will be able to see that currently price has retraced back into this order block right here, which means it's going to be a straightforward setup today. When you get some sort of a CSD, which this entry that you're seeing on the chart right now, I'm not actually in it yet because we haven't gotten the CSD, which is very important, right? Because ultimately there are a couple of things that you do need to keep in mind when it comes to trading, which is A, you need to have an opinion about the market, right? You need to have a thesis on what the market is likely to do in your opinion, but Your opinion aside, you also need the market to give you confirmation that, hey, I agree with your thesis. And in this system that we're trading right now, that comes in the form of a 5-minute CSD, which is basically, if you take a look at the 5-minute order flow right now, it is bearish, right? We're forming lower highs and lower lows. And currently, until this one here is broken, we are not yet in an uptrend. So it's not enough to just understand, you know, hey, the daily bias is bullish, so our direction is going to be bullish for today. And secondly, we are currently in some sort of an hourly PD array, but that is not enough because Being in an hourly area of interest is only enough to tell you that price is likely to bounce from this level. At least that is our thesis. But to get the confirmation before we jump into a trade, we need the 5-minute chart to also reflect that. And that is all we're looking for. So in between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM today, we are going to be looking for that change of state of delivery. Now I'm going to give you a couple of guidelines as to how to navigate today. Let's say scenario A, price pumps immediately and you form a new order block, and then you potentially do something like this, right? If this happens without sweeping the low, Then you are still like, the trade idea is still valid, but you want to go at maximum half risk because A, today's a non-newsday, and B, you have relatively equal lows. So even though every other condition is checked out, simply because of these 2 factors here, we go half risk. Now, the second scenario is that let's say that we do get in on here and we go half risk and we eventually get stopped out and then price shows a bullish CISD at around 7 to 10 AM, then we enter again. One of the core rules of my trading system is that we have 2 bullets to fire each and every day. So if we end up getting stopped out on the first one, We can still reenter as long as the conditions are present. Now, this rule does 2 things. One is that if we do end up getting a bad entry on the first one, but the conditions are still present and you're still within the session, you're allowed to, you know, just reenter as long as the conditions are met. But the second thing, the reason why it's capped at 2 and not more is because we don't want to, you know, allow ourselves to get into revenge trading. For example, let's say on the first one, uh, you ended up getting stopped out, and then the second one you end up getting stopped out, then chances are that initial idea that you had, it's probably not going to happen. at least within that trading day. And so having 2 bullets or like just 2 trades maximum per day just prevents us from getting into overtrading. And this has been one rule that has saved me from immense amounts of frustration. It's like 2 trades, boom, done. Now this obviously applies to, you know, every single trading asset out there. And just to mention one last thing before I move on to Ethereum and Solana is that Bitcoin, you have already swept out the Asia low. This happened sometime during the London session, which means that this is potentially going to set up for an Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York distribution type of day, which if you guys know anything about how A+ setups looks like with this system, it's that you see the Asia low during the London into some sort of an hourly PD array followed by a pump during New York followed by distribution during the New York session, which is exactly what we're going to be looking for today. So all we need honestly is for the CIC to happen and we're going to be all good to go. As usual, if you want to follow along with my trade executions, I will be posting them all to X, so feel free to follow me there if you would like. But otherwise, uh, let's move into Ethereum. Ethereum, we are looking pretty decent as well where we have already pumped And if you recall the chart on Bitcoin, let me just pull up the Bitcoin chart so that you're able to get a good glimpse of this. If you take a look at the Bitcoin chart at the moment, the same order block that Ethereum has broken through, Bitcoin has not yet broken through, which means one thing: Ethereum has a little bit more relative strength at the moment compared to Bitcoin, which means that as far as the long is concerned, we might even want to prioritize Ethereum because it has a higher likelihood of pumping and also pumping more. So take a look at Ethereum. So far we have this bullish PD array, which Ethereum, again, because of how much stronger it is compared to Bitcoin at the moment, where Bitcoin's already inside the PD array, Ethereum has not yet touched the PD array. So in the event that Ethereum touches this and you get that 5-minute change of state delivery, this is going to be the ideal setup. That is not the only scenario though, because in the event that Ethereum continues to pump, then well, you're just going to trade newly formed order blocks and fair value gaps and just momentum trade Ethereum towards the upside. Again, I will be posting this on X if you guys would like to follow along with it. Now the conditions are largely similar to Bitcoin though, because The Asia low has already been swept. You have a bullish 30 buys and you're coming into an hourly PD array. One of the other things that stands out to me is that, well, Ethereum, you don't have relatively equal lows. As far as longs are concerned, I might be prioritizing Ethereum a little bit more than Bitcoin, at least as far as today goes. Solana is still again being a bit of a laggard because like take a look at the order block. Solana is still very far away from it. And in a situation where you could have the choice of trading Bitcoin versus the choice of trading Solana, I think you would much You would be much better off trading Bitcoin just because you would get a lot more certainty when it comes to Bitcoin. Now, one of the positive things though is that Solana is already bouncing off that hourly PD array. So who knows, there might be a little bit more strength as far as Solana is concerned. On Solana, you don't have relatively equal lows either. Again, I think I would just prioritize Bitcoin. Well, given the choice between Solana and Bitcoin, I would prioritize Bitcoin. But given the choice between Bitcoin and Ethereum, I think the best play today is just going to be Ethereum. Ethereum straight up. Which leads me on to just one final thing. We're 2 weeks out from the live trading event, which is a completely free event where you're gonna see me live trade this system like alongside you for 2 days in a row. Now, if you would like to see how the system is executed with real-time decision making, feel free to just click the first link in the description box below to sign up, again completely for free. And if you would like to live trade alongside with me for the next 30 days, there is also an option for you, which is the second link in the description box below. I'm not going to talk too much here. Just feel free to check it out. If you're not interested, don't worry. I will never pressure you. But yeah, otherwise, that's about it for this video. I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao.
