Bitcoin: Range Breakout Equals New All-Time High Soon?

What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Yesterday's call ended up being the wrong one in the sense that it was indeed ending up as an AMD and New York eventually started dumping. And the exact time as to where it started dumping was exactly at 10 AM, which is when the news was hitting. Even though we got that bounce from the fair value gap and we did get one and maybe a couple of CISDs overall, because of the daily bias pointing towards the downside, I should have realized that, hey, the call should be towards the downside. That was yesterday was also one of those moments where I was like, I'm reasoning from the bottom up, and so just take my call with a huge grain of salt. But regardless of what happened, like yesterday was definitely a clean loss, and moving forward I should definitely remember to trade the system, not what I want to see. And it's funny because like I even went on a whole spiel yesterday talking about, oh yeah, you know, you should trade what the market is showing you rather than what you want to see. And then yet, like as I'm saying that, I'm making that mistake. It is what it is though. I do apologize for the bad call. Overall, today is going to be a much more simple call, and today is going to be much more clear. So let's get into it. Again, daily bias— sorry, weekly bias is still towards the upside. But I think this overall screwed us yesterday because we were looking at too high of a timeframe compared to the timeline that we're actually trading on, in the sense that we are taking intraday trades here, trades that are opened and closed within a couple of hours. And then I was looking at the weekly chart yesterday, which kind of confused my Overall bias, but today the daily bias is clear. Not going to make the same mistake as yesterday. Yesterday was a bearish daily bias, and so the direction should have been downside. In this case was also a bearish close, which means today's daily bias is going to be towards the downside. That's still pretty straightforward so far. Bitcoin is still hovering within the range, even though the higher time frame February gap has been filled. It does not mean that we're just going to bounce straight from here. No, actually, I think I forgot something really important. Yesterday we were sitting at 105 because yesterday was a loss. Now it makes it 106. So I'm currently 86 out of 106 out of all of the YouTube public analyses that I've made here. So even though we have been through a losing streak, like that does not change the fact that the system is still overall like plotted out over a long time horizon. It is still pretty profitable, or at the very least it is right more often than it's wrong. And so if you're new to this channel, Don't be put off by the few losses that we've had since last week. Just understand that again, like, if you take a look at the daily chart, this is really tough market conditions to navigate in the first place. It's the same thing that I've been kind of saying throughout the entirety of last week. When price is ranging, you know, direction is oftentimes not clear, and it becomes really tough to trade at that point. Now, overall though, we know that it's still going to go up. Heck, maybe by next week or within the next couple of weeks, we will start to go up again. But for now, we're still within a range. But the good news is that at the very least, the range lows have been swept. Higher timeframe bullish PD array has been filled. And so this already sets the stage for some kind of a pump moving into next week or even the next couple of weeks. Anyways, losing streak aside, just wanted to, you know, reassure any new people here at the channel that, hey, if you're new to the channel, again, don't worry, we tend to be right more often than we're wrong. But anyways, on the 1-hour chart, now we have a much clearer picture as compared to yesterday. Now yesterday also, one other thing that I missed was that, sure, like all of these liquidity was swept, but that was what I was paying attention to. And I completely missed the fact that we had a change in state of delivery over there. And yesterday, in fact, price was retracing into a level of bearish, like just a bearish PD array. Now a couple of comments that I read from yesterday, like you guys spotted this and good job for spotting this. Like yesterday was just straight up a loss. And so I truly, truly do apologize for making a wrong call. Not going to let this happen again, hopefully. Like, now this becomes even more clear because yesterday we have another bearish change in state of delivery. And so far, the price action from today has been— if you've ever heard of the statement before, elevator down, staircase up, then you know what comes next, right? Elevator down. So at the moment, price action has been very choppy, you know, just returning back into— in fact, I'm going to remove all of the drawings. Price is very choppy returning back into this zone of resistance at the moment. Which means that given, like, depending on how the Asia and London has been playing out so far, we could be having an Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York distribution setup just like yesterday, where again London tricked everyone, including me, into thinking that price was actually going up. In fact, again, we had the change in state of delivery and this was a resistance area that it was coming back to. And so that was manipulation, right? Again, tricked everyone in thinking it's going to the upside and then New York, you distribute. Heavily towards the downside, and I think this is going to be a very similar case for today. The main reason is because check it out: this is the Asia session right here. This is the London, and so far this is sweeping above the Asia highs, and currently it's forming some kind of a distribution. The well, the Asia highs basically, and within this one hourly bearish order block. Now the condition of a trade for today is going to be pretty clear. Now hopefully within the next few minutes you will break. Or rather, you will have a candle close beneath like 118, basically. If you get a candle close beneath this level, essentially that means that on any retracement, you can start taking a trade towards the downside. The reason being, this high was swept here, which makes this a strong high. For those of you who do not know what is the difference between strong highs and weak highs, strong highs are basically highs that have swept prior liquidity. This makes them much stronger because if you know anything about how the markets move, And just even a tiny bit about liquidity concepts, you know that the objective of all market movements is to take out liquidity. So the reason why you start dumping is because you need to stop out people who have their stop losses underneath sell-side liquidity, and vice versa for buy-side liquidity. In this case, once everyone here has been stopped out, then you have a reason to revert back to the other way because that is where the liquidity is and that is where the objective is. In this case, of course, if we're taking a short, ideally we want to be shorting from strong highs because otherwise you run into situations where if you have a bunch of weak lows, for example here, relatively equal lows are also considered weak lows. And look what happened yesterday. Again, something I missed, not usually something I miss, but that's why, you know, we're gonna try to redeem ourselves here. But anyways, first things first, you do need that candle close underneath this level before you get a confirmed change in state of delivery on the 5-minute chart, which is the lower timeframe. The reason why we need to wait for that is because just because you have a higher timeframe doesn't mean that you just set a limit here, you place your stop loss here, and you just take a trade. You could. Don't get me wrong, but the stop loss that you're going to be setting in this case is going to be pretty wide. And it also means that you need a much bigger move in order to achieve a 2R target, which is what we try to achieve here on this channel. So if you go into the 5-minute, then this becomes different, right? Because the moment you get the change in state of delivery, right, I want to paint this picture for you. On a retrace, you could theoretically set your stop loss here and your entry could be here. And 2R comparatively to just trading from the 1-hourly chart Right? Even with just half the move, you would already be achieving 2R. And that's the power of having, you know, just 3 timeframes, right? Or even just multi-timeframes in general. The guys who are trading strictly purely from one timeframe, like, you're really missing out. And I know timeframes can be confusing, but as long as you understand that there is a certain purpose to each timeframe, then that's the way that you reduce a lot of this timeframe confusion. Anyways, until that happens though, just expect the market to continue chopping up. And now let's talk a little bit about that invalidation scenario. In fact, before I get into that, the target for today is going to be pretty clear. It's going to be like TP1 will probably be right here at 117. Now, of course, this is besides the fact that, like, again, the recommendation on this channel, and I've been talking about this for months now, each and every single one of these videos, take some profit at 2R and set your stop loss to break even. 2R is usually all you need as a trader in order to make a really, really good income. And Anything beyond that, like, you're just going to be hurting your win rate at the expense of, you know, not a whole lot different, right? If you just go for 2R each and every single day, it's very likely to happen. That's step 1. Step 2, that means that you're going to be feeling good because wins or more wins leads to you feeling better about doing trading as a whole. And once you start feeling better, guess what? Those positive outcomes are going to reinforce the good habits, which is, you know, you're going to start looking for the same type of trades again and again. And over time, this builds into kind of like a cycle of where you're positively reinforcing yourself to being a consistent trader. Now, picture a different scenario where if you're, let's say, aiming for 5R per trade, right? Chances are you're gonna be losing many more trades. You're gonna be much more prone to running into losing streaks. And because of that, that creates a negative feedback loop. And so if you have been trading for a while and you have always aimed for like just huge returns on each and every single one of your trades, and you're just losing motivation, this could be something that fixes it. But anyways, 2-hour aside, target for today is probably going to be there. And if you use a fib yesterday, in fact, I'm pretty sure this is not even going to be great. But if we use a fib, yeah, we didn't even hit the measured move from yesterday. But if we get a measured move expansion for today, then yep, you're probably going to be looking at, you know, $116,000. Although again, we're trading intraday here. We're not trying to capture the largest move of the day. We're just trying to catch a high probability move within each and every single day. So now let's get into the invalidation scenario, which is good to understand, right? My call this time around is going to be towards the downside, but this is fully invalidated if A, you do not get that change in state of delivery, right? If price just keeps forming bullish order flow, then guess what? Um, no trade. Secondly, the reason why it is a no trade is because so far the 1-hourly order flow is bearish in the sense that at the moment, for example, this is a bearish order block. We discussed that just now. Price came back into the order block and got rejected and formed a new low. At the very moment, we are now back inside a bearish order block, which means that in this entire leg here, we are bearish. Now, on the daily timeframe, we are also bearish. And so until the higher timeframes switch direction, we are not going to start just taking longs on the lower timeframe, right? Just because the market is pumping does not mean that you need to jump into that move. The trend is your friend in the markets. If you can trade with the trend, that is how you're going to be able to tap into The moves that are just like really obvious, they're really easy, they're moving really cleanly, they're moving a lot, they don't really leave much room for doubt. That is only achievable when you're trading with the trend. And in this case, the trend is very much towards the downside. But that could change today because the invalidation scenario in this case for our short idea is that if you trade above this order block right here, which means if you get a candle close on a 1-hourly chart above 118,900, that means that you have just invalidated this order block. And you could potentially start looking to flip this resistance, right, into potential support. And so tomorrow could be a day when you start going long. And this again fits into the weekly bias, rather the weekly Power of 3 scenario that I've already painted out earlier, you know, this week, at the start of this week actually, where because last week's candle closed bullish, this week, the PO3, we wouldn't be surprised if we start the week off with a downside movement because this is how Power of 3 works. If you are bullish, right, take a look at the weekly open from last week. We had our eyes set on this fair value gap right here. We anticipated it to get filled. So a retracement underneath the weekly open gives you an opportunity to ride this wave up, right? Because that is how Power of 3 works. And given that we still have a lot of news heading into the rest of this week, right, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, then yeah, it makes sense, right, that we still have room for a pump. Although, just play it safe for now. And do not get into any longs until at the very least, like the one hourly and the daily timeframe has shifted into bullish order flow. For now though, if we get a close above here, then tomorrow is the day where we start looking into longs, not today. But today it is just purely shorts. And again, because of where we are in terms of the higher timeframe, in the sense that within this whole daily range here, we've already filled in this weekly family gap with that move right there, means that take it easy right on the shorts. Overall, in a higher timeframe, if you're a swing trader, this is where you start loading up on long positions because this is a strong low swept out 2 relatively equal lows and filling in the fair value gap. It's only a matter of time until we start pumping. So even if we're shorting now, again, remember, this is purely intraday. This is not like if you're an investor, if you're a swing trader, right? This does not apply to you. This is only for intraday. And speaking about intraday, expect the moves that I've mentioned today to happen before 8:15 AM or potentially even 8:30. Basically the hour before, like starting from like 7 AM. Till about 9:30 AM is when you can expect the short move to start happening because that is when you have news. I always like to explain that in trading, you're dealing with a variety of variables at every single moment. You're dealing with, you know, trying to figure out, oh, is price going to go up or down? How far up is it going to go? Or how far low? Or like, how low is it going to go? And then you have to deal with like timing, right? Because even if you get the other 2 correct, if you don't get the timing right, then yeah, you know, you still don't really have a quality trade. The beautiful thing about news days is that, hey, you pretty much know that something's going to happen. In the hour leading up to 8:30 and the hour after 8:30, because that is when you have a lot of volatility, because that is when you have news. All the market participants are gonna be looking at that specific event and that specific time, and they're probably gonna take some action. And so news kind of, kind of like removes a variable so that you can focus on the other 2, which in this case I've already shared. But anyways, if you enjoy the methodology and if you like the systematic process that I approach the markets, as I've demonstrated in each and every one of my videos, and if you would like to learn this for yourself, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. To apply for bootcamp. But otherwise, guys, I'll see you in the next one. Bye-bye.