In this real‑time market commentary, the presenter walks through his systematic approach to Bitcoin trading on a day with mixed signals. He begins by reminding viewers of his earlier warning about a possible retracement and explains why he refrains from making a call when timeframe alignment is absent. He then details the daily chart’s fair‑value gap (approximately $118,050‑$118,700) and a bullish order block, noting that the daily bias is bearish despite the gap. Shifting to the 1‑hour chart, he highlights a potential change of state: a candle closing below $118,270 would signal bearish order flow, prompting a short bias. He contrasts this with the weekly chart, which remains bullish after recent gap fills, and discusses how a weekly bullish bias does not guarantee immediate upside. The presenter evaluates exchange‑specific price action, observing that Bybit has already swept certain lows while Binance and the spot market have not, underscoring the challenges of decentralized markets. He emphasizes the importance of following his trading system over personal desire, noting his own long‑position bias due to holding crypto assets. He outlines a short‑side trade plan: entering the order block around $118,650 and targeting the fair‑value gap near $118,600‑$118,700, while remaining open to a long entry only if the daily closes bullishly above $118,600. He also mentions upcoming news at 8:30 AM, the London session’s potential impact, and the broader weekly outlook that could lead to a new Bitcoin all‑time high and an alt‑season. The video concludes with a promotional plug for a trading system designed for the upcoming alt‑season.
Chapters
What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Yesterday we mentioned the fact that, in fact we mentioned it extensively, that we would have some kind of retracement and not to be surprised if it happens. And the fact that I would say that I'm going to make it a no-call if it does end up retracing, because straight up my system requires timeframe alignment and yesterday was not a day where I had timeframe alignment. So for all of those reasons, we are still at 90 out of the 111 videos that, or rather 90 out of the 111 previous calls that we've made. And so yeah, today hopefully we'll be able to get something. And I do think that today is going to be a much better trading day for reasons that I've already established yesterday. So just to give you an idea, today we have news specifically at 8:30. At the very moment right now, I'm recording this video at 6:40 AM. So in about a couple of hours, we're going to have some news. And the beautiful thing about this is the fact that we have a daily fair value gap that was left behind right here. The daily bias is bearish, yes, but Like if you go down to the 1-hourly chart, there is a very high potential for price to sweep out 1, 2, 3 relatively equal lows right here, right? Sweep out either one of these lows starting at $118,050. If you start sweeping out this low and you start showing a reaction towards the upside, then that's going to be a pretty easy trade. The only problem with that is the fact that on the higher timeframe, if you get a 1-hourly candle close underneath this candle body right here, At 118,270, you're basically going to get a bearish change in state of delivery, and you're actually going to want to look for shorts instead of longs. And this comes back to that timeframe alignment issue that I talked about yesterday. Because of yesterday's candle, it was going up, right? My bias yesterday was not going to be down. Again, timeframe alignment. And because of that, I wasn't looking for a short, even though I was fully expecting something short to happen. And so today is also kind of a little— kind of a conundrum because You have this fair value gap right here, and you have that daily bullish order block right here. But the daily chart is currently pointing towards the downside. So I'm still going to like look for a long today just because of how I'm understanding the higher time frames. But again, today is— yeah, there are a lot of days on this channel in the last 6 months where, you know, it's just super clear and direction is easy. Unfortunately, today is not going to be one of those days because the daily chart is pointing down. The 1-hourly chart is potentially going to point down, but then Like we have a bullish bias heading into this week, right? If you take a look at the weekly chart, it is bullish, and this is bullish after filling in these fair value gaps right here on the daily chart. And this is a really good sign. So I could be jumping the gun here by looking for longs immediately, especially because on the daily chart, um, you, you currently just got a deviation above the value area. For those of you who know anything about volume profiling, you know that this right here is a value area. And areas underneath the value area low and areas above the value area high are known as what is discount and premium. At the moment, we have just swept out the value area high, and so it wouldn't, it wouldn't be illogical to look for shorts here, especially because yesterday's daily bias is short as well. On the 1-hourly chart, we are quite literally on the brink of just a massive change in state of delivery. Like, technically, you're already in bearish order flow. So yeah, actually, Guys, I'm doing— I'm usually doing these videos like in real time with you guys. I don't have necessarily a super set structure, or like I may not know the idea immediately, but hopefully this kind of gives you a glimpse into how I think through like what trades to take. Quite literally, I am in real time just talking through like, okay, I'm considering this, I'm considering that, I'm looking at that, and because of this, I'm, you know, potentially changing my mind. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. So You know what, guys? We've made the mistake before in the past where I was trying to call things that I personally wanted to see from the markets. Again, I hold a lot of crypto bags, so ideally I want to see the markets go up. And so, you know, I'm definitely going to be leaning towards the long side. Unfortunately, the daily chart and the one-hourly chart both are not showing bullishness yet. So it's going to be—I'm going to be very hard pressed to, you know, say or rather call what I would like to see rather than just read the market for what it is. You know, it's funny actually because I always tell myself, or rather I always give you guys this advice, but I was. I was on the brink of like, no, just not following my own advice. So with that said, I think the call today is going to be towards the short side for a very important reason, which is daily chart and 1-hourly chart at the moment are still pointing towards the downside. Now you have potential during the London session because now you've swept underneath the Asia low. So there is potential that today could be an accumulation manipulation distribution, and manipulation would really only happen after these lows are swept. But then if I think about it, why not trade it to these lows instead, right? That would be A much like higher probability play. I don't know. There are days out there where things are looking really clear. Ideally, I always save my— personally, whenever I do trade, I try to trade in situations where it makes sense. I try to trade on days where it's just the highest probability, right? You have news, you have clear timeframe alignment, and price action is also showing like just clear session profiles even on the lower timeframe. Unfortunately, today's not one of these days so far. But yeah, the way I think I'm going to play today It's going to be right now we are breaking below the Asia session quite literally. The one-hourly chart at the moment is showing a huge, you know, just block of resistance right here. And so when you do retrace into either one of these blocks at the moment, we can also refine it down to this fair value gap at 118,600 till about 118,700. So that's like the first fair value gap. And also, yeah, this is also the start of the order block. So in the event that you retrace back into this zone specifically, 118,650, you going to take a trade down to there, and I think that's going to be the setup for today. Again, there are things that I would like to see, and there are things that the market is actually showing me, and I think I'm going to make the call based on what my system is telling me rather than what I want to see. Ultimately, success in trading is going to boil down to not trading based on how you feel or like what you want to see, but just trading according to the rules of the system. And in my system, I'm going to trust the 1-hourly timeframe and the daily timeframe more than You know, again, what I want to see, slash stuff that's happening on the 5-minute timeframe. So yeah, in the event, like, in fact, even right now, you're already pretty close to going back into the zone. Now, there's a potential that you could sweep out these couple of highs right here, depending on what chart you're looking at. If we start taking a look at the Bybit chart, yeah, those are definitely relatively equal highs. And so there is potential that you could sweep it out. But again, like, looking at that level, you would be basically breaking through the order block. So the call for today is going to be pretty straightforward. You're gonna enter this order block right here, and then you're gonna go down. Not too far though, because again, the relative equal lows are apparently already swept on Bybit. That may change things. That may change things. Because on Binance, it's not swept yet. Let's take a look at the spot chart. Spot chart is also not swept. Yeah, this is the tough part about crypto, eh? Because it's so decentralized. Yeah, I'm gonna stick with me original call. I'm gonna think that price is gonna head towards the downside. Regardless, I would not be looking to take a long anyways, purely because of the fact that timeframe alignment is not yet there. If I'm going to take a long, I would rather for price to fill in the fair value gap today. And then if it closes bullish, right? And that's not going to be particularly hard because all you need to do is close above like 118,600. As long as you get a daily bullish close today, we're going to have an opportunity to jump into longs tomorrow. And tomorrow is not a news day, but we do have news on Thursday and Friday. So again, we— it comes back to what I was talking about at the start of the week. We have a bullish weekly bias, but just because you have a bullish weekly bias does not mean that you're just going to pump straight away. There is a type of setup where price just quite literally based on like, I'm going to do a recap of power of 3 again. If you have a bullish weekly bias, in the event that you go below the weekly open, which we currently are going below the weekly open so far, then you have an opportunity to buy low, right? Buy into the low of the week before you sell once you get that true expansion. That, I believe, is still going to be the weekly profile for this week. It's just taking a couple of days to play out, and that's perfectly fine. So today's call is going to be towards the short side, but it doesn't mean that higher timeframe we are bearish, because you're going to fill in these couple of order blocks over here. You are going to fill in this fair value gap. And yeah, potentially in the next couple of days, in the next few days actually, heading into the rest of the week, you are going to see a big pump and Bitcoin potentially forming a new all-time high. And speaking about Bitcoin all-time highs, like, we're About to start a full-on alt season. If you would like to just get set up with all of the systems you would need to succeed and to make something out of this alt season, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. I'm fully confident that we'll be able to help you because we've done the same for quite literally many other people. Anyways, guys, I'll see you in the next one. Bye-bye.
