Bitcoin: Reversal Confirmed, Big PUMP Incoming?

What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Yesterday ended up almost correct in the sense that I was talking about how like these relatively equal lows would be swept and not to just jump into a long at here because you eventually get stopped out before price actually goes up. Uh, price eventually swept out one of those, uh, relatively equal lows and then started pumping immediately. But like I was saying, my specific trigger was like this level right here. So because of this, like because of this minor little Miss, I'm going to say that yesterday was basically just a no trade. I wouldn't, I wouldn't count yesterday as a win. You guys let me know though, but I don't like purely like because I didn't enter a trade, so I was waiting for those lows to get swept. So it is what it is. Was a no trade for me. But anyways, we're still like 89 wins out of the last 110 analyses. So let's just try to continue doing a good job on today's video. Now, to those of you that are new here, welcome. Chances are you're in the right place because we tend to be right more often than we're wrong. And quick little announcement: tomorrow I'm very likely going to need to miss, or rather break my. Like I have maintained at least one video every weekday for the last at least like four to five months, and tomorrow we're going to need to break that because I'll be traveling during the time when I usually film these videos. So expect there not to be a video tomorrow, but otherwise let's get into the video. So kick things off on the daily chart. It is yesterday's candle closed bullish, and you left behind a little fair value gap over here. Which, as you can see, is already filled. I'm going to get into that later, but the session, or rather the trade for today, actually showed up during London. Although you're not too late yet, even if you're watching the video now. But anyways, because yesterday's candle closed bullish, we have a bullish daily bias today. And today is a Tuesday, and I'm highly expecting today to just go higher. And so that is the daily bias for today. So going down into the 1-hour chart, let's see if there are any, you know, areas of interest that we can look at. There is that order block over there, but besides the order block, you have those relatively equal lows that were left behind yesterday. Yesterday that finally got swept today during the London session, which is also if you know anything about trading or if you know anything about session profiles, especially if you've watched this channel for a while, you know that London tends to be the session of manipulation. And if it just so happens to happen at the low after sweeping out sell side liquidity on a day where we are bullish on our daily bias and this liquidity also we were talking about since yesterday, like we want to see that swept and price will very likely show some kind of. Reversal, you know that this is a really good sign, right? And even so far as of the time that I'm recording this, you're already getting some kind of displacement and some kind of change in state of delivery. And this is now potentially going to become an order block that we can utilize to get a retracement and then for price to head further towards the upside. Also, this is a strong low, and the reason why this is the case is because this is a low that gets formed after sweeping out 1, 2, 3, 4 levels of liquidity. So any sort of low that's formed after sweeping liquidity, we call that a strong low. And liquidity that is, or rather a low that is not formed before sweeping any sort of liquidity, we call it weak lows. Hence why, like for example, 1, 2, 3, and 4 here, they are considered weak lows because they did not sweep liquidity. Actually, not this one because this swept here, but like weak lows. The reason why we never want to like trade before weak lows are taken out, and the reason why we always want to take longs, with strong lows in place is because this is highly unlikely to get revisited because you have already achieved the objective that the market has set out to accomplish. Just to give you an idea of what that means, every single move in the market is always done with some kind of a purpose, and the majority of the time that purpose is always to seek out liquidity. What is liquidity? I want you to imagine everyone is probably— anyone who went long at any point here would have probably set their stops somewhere below this low, right? Assuming they haven't taken profits yet. And because— and the reason they do that is because these are, you know, retail traders would look at this, the fact that, oh, like price bounced off of these levels like multiple times. And so this is quote unquote strong support. And so they're going to put their stop loss under here. And even in terms of like the traditional training that we traders go through, we're always told to place our stop loss underneath previous swing lows or above previous swing highs if we're shorting. And so this just gives a perfect recipe. The liquidity— I just want you to imagine everyone is probably setting their stop loss in the vicinity of this level. And so once this is swept, there is no longer a need for the market makers to, you know, bring the market lower unless they are seeking out more sell-side liquidity. In this case, you have a strong low here and potentially a low there. But again, that is just one step of the equation. Second step is you want to see how the market reacts after sweeping out these lows. Ideally, you want to see a strong reaction going away from that liquidity level to signify some sort of confirmed liquidity sweep. And now the market is sending it higher. And this is exactly what we're getting right now. Assuming that this candle closes above this level right here, which is at 114,465 over the next 26 minutes, then this would be known as what is a broken base. Essentially, a liquidity sweep followed by an aggressive market movement towards the upside that ideally breaks structure or just some kind of change of character. And of course, we will have a confirmed change in order flow. And overall, a broken base is one of the higher probability reversal patterns. So reversal from this down move here, you get the broken base, and then the setup is going to be pretty clear. Hopefully that makes sense. And outside of that, which is going to be like the only key level that we're taking a look at or focusing on for today, is going to be when you retrace into 114,374, all the way down to like 114-ish is where you want to start looking for entries. And by the way, if you've been watching me for a while and you see the accuracy that's been displayed on these videos in the last 6 months that I've been doing daily videos. And if you'd like to learn this system for yourself by working with me one-on-one, yes, me and you, we work one-on-one to help you learn this system, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below. If you're an intermediate trader that has been doing this for a while now, but you just haven't, like you're just seeing a lot of inconsistency, sometimes you win, but then most of the time you lose, then Bootcamp is going to be a huge help for you. If that sounds like you, then it's going to make sense. But otherwise, let's get back into the video. So speaking about session profiles, like just continuing on the session profiles from earlier, we can see that this is the Asia session. And during the London session, you made an aggressive move to take out the liquidity, right? That is the objective that we were mentioning before. Now that the objective has been taken out, we want to see signs of reversal. In this case, that is a change in state of delivery. And this is what I mean. Like, if you were looking at the London session, you could have entered a trade at the change in state of delivery, put the stop underneath the low, and just target 2R. Now, Just because price has already started moving away does not mean that you're too late because we've already identified that 1-hourly order block. So the second retracement into the order block is going to give you what you need in order to take the trade. So anyways, based on the session profiles that has been displayed so far during today, I can reasonably make a prediction that Asia is some kind of accumulation, London is manipulation, which also means that New York is most likely going to be distribution. whereby you stop everyone out and you make the market think that it's going lower. There are going to be people that are going to, oh yeah, support has been broken, so we're going to short the breakdown, right? You know, buy the breakout, short the breakdown. You guys know what that means. And a lot of people are basically now trapped, right? They maybe started shorting around these areas. And the goal and the way to truly hurt these people is to drive the market in the opposite direction as quickly as you can. That's why we look for those aggressive movements once liquidity sweeps has happened. That's a really good sign that, hey, the objective has indeed been taken out, and we are looking to stop everyone out, stop out all of these people that shorted a bit too late, and then boom, that money is going to go to the market makers, which I feel like I need to explain just a little bit. So one thing you need to understand about the market is that this is a zero-sum game, which means that when you make money, right, when you win a trade and you make money from the markets, you're not actually just printing that out of thin air. It's not like business or just the general economy where it is not a zero-sum game whereby the more, like everyone can win, right? The money's always getting printed and as long as you generate value to society, you're generally gonna get paid and this can go on infinitely. But that's not the same for the markets because for every winner there is a loser, for every loser there is a winner, which means that when you make money, you're actually taking it from somebody else that was on the losing side of the trade. And if you understand anything about how financial markets operate, you know that they are pretty much run by the market makers, right? Otherwise known as the smart money or the big money, right? The big funds, the bank traders, the bank funds, the government funds even. And this matters because they are the ones who hold all the power because how much more capital they have at their disposal. Even if 100,000 of us retail traders were to band together, it's very unlikely that we'll be able to move the markets in any meaningful way. In fact, one of the reasons why, you know, WallStreetBets, you know, that trade with GameStop, The short squeeze. The only reason that worked— not the reason, that was one of the only times where retail managed to kind of like outsmart smart money. And there is a reason why that was talked about so much, because it generally doesn't happen, right? Majority of the time, smart money is in control. And the way you kind of use this information is that the more you're able to trade alongside the smart money, right, which is kind of what I teach and what I do here on these YouTube videos, I try to break things down from the perspective of the smart money so that we're able to trade on the same side of the smart money rather than trading against them. So now that all of this has been broken down, you understand that now there is a clear motivation for smart money to try to stop out as many people as possible so that whoever's losing, the money goes to the smart money, right? They're in this market to make money. They're not here to do charity. And so it is in their best interest to stop as many people out as possible. So now that you understand that, let's get into just the general things that you need to look for. So today we have news, and specifically that news is going to be coming at 10 AM, which means the hour leading up to the news and the hour after news is probably going to be the most, let's just say, volatile. That does not mean though that you cannot get an entry prior to news. Specifically, what you want to look for is, because we want to see price actually come back into the order block right here, it means that this low here is actually a weak low. And we ideally want to see this weak low being taken out before some kind of, again, aggressive move that changes state of delivery. And then you're going to enter here, place your stop here, And then you're going to target 2R. That's that much is pretty straightforward. Now what if the market just starts pumping from this point onwards? Maybe it just comes back into this order block and it does not retrace all the way down here. Just feel free to momentum trade this all the way towards the upside. Just be aware that as you head up to news, a lot of the times there tends to be a liquidity sweep that happens right before the news is dropped. So let's say around 9 AM, if you start seeing the market start heading lower, and then eventually let's say 9:30 you sweep out the low, that is also just another form of confirmation that hey, the market is just sweeping, cleaning out some of the late Entries so that they, the market makers, are able to position themselves better before the market moves in the other way. Now, this does not just like this is not just limited to this area right here because while this is a strong low, there is still a possibility, right? Just possibility, although not a high probability compared to this one right here. There is also a chance that this could get swept out before the move continues. Just understand that in terms of the higher time frame, both the one hourly and the daily chart, you are pointing towards the upside. So let the higher time frame be your guide. There's going to be a lot of noise that happens on the lower time frames, and don't get confused, right? Keep the higher timeframe in mind, understand that regardless of what liquidity sweeps happen, the direction is going to be towards the upside, or at least that is what we're going to be aiming for today. And with that in mind, hopefully that gives you a generally pretty good idea of what to expect as you head into today. Now, the only caveat, the only thing that you need to be careful of is that 5-minute changes their delivery. Just because price enters into this area or maybe sweeps out the low here, or maybe sweeps out this low here, it does not mean that you just jump in immediately. Because you need— like, there is something that is known as what we want to see from the market, right? I can tell you what I would like to see from the markets, but what's most important is that once whatever you want to see with the market happens, the market actually confirms your theory, right? It confirms your thesis. It is called trading not what you want to see, but trading what the market is showing you, right? This is the job of us traders, is to be as objective as possible when it comes to this. And I just want you to picture this for a moment. If you were to retrace all the way back down to those areas, there is a chance that order flow could bearish heading into it, which means that you're going to be— if you just start taking a long here, you're going to be trading into bearish order flow, and that's not what you want to see. So you want to again see signs that the market is indeed going to head towards the upside, and then you— it's never too late to just jump in at that point. For example, let's say something like this happens. You take an entry here, you place a stop here, and then boom, right? It's still going to be 2R. In fact, this is going to be a much tighter stop loss compared to if you were just entering here, here, and then you would have to look for a bigger move, right? You do not have to catch the first entry. It's perfectly fine to go for the second one. And again, because we have news today, it's also in your best interest to start looking for trades closer to when the news is about to drop, because there tends to be some kind of manipulation that happens during news days, or at least prior to news. Now, the targets for today— obviously keep the Asia high in mind. Like, if price heads to 115, that's a good place to take profit. Otherwise, this high right here, or in general just the previous daily high— all of these are potential take profit points. But as usual, I always recommend you guys to just take your profits at 2R because you don't really need more than 2R in order to be a consistently profitable trader. But anyways, like, just as a little contingency plan, there is also a possibility that price just continues heading lower. You do not get that 5-minute change of state delivery towards the upside. If that does not come to fruition, then just understand that that is a no trade. And even if the market were to head lower today, that is not a trade that I'll be taking because of timeframe alignment, basically. I use 3 timeframes for all of my trading: the daily chart, the 1-hourly chart, and the 5-minute. And I only take trades when all 3 timeframes are aligned, which means that because the daily timeframe is pointing towards the upside, I'm not going to be taking shorts because that would go against my timeframe alignment rule of my system. Over time, I have realized that this rule has saved me from many bad trades. Like, in general, like, just having rules for, you know, entries that you do not go against will help save you from a lot of bad entries. And so Yeah, even if it were to start going short, I would only be looking for shorts starting tomorrow. And overall, I do think the probability or the likelihood that we continue going higher today is going to be higher than going lower. And so trading is all about just taking the higher probability outcome over the lower probability outcome and repeating that over a long period of time. That is how you eventually become a consistently profitable trader. And so that's what I'm going to do, right? So even if we go short today, just consider it as a wrong analysis. I personally would not be taking a short. I'm only going to be looking for long study. Anyways guys, see you on Thursday once I have settled into the new location. Until then, see you. Bye-bye.