In this video, the presenter reviews a recent Bitcoin trade where an attempted >2R move reversed to break‑even, using the experience to illustrate two contrasting trading approaches: a consistent small‑win strategy (targeting 1‑2R) and a "home run" strategy that seeks larger profits but tolerates more frequent reversals. He emphasizes the importance of defining one’s trading objective before applying any system, accepting the inherent trade‑off between win rate and payoff size, and maintaining patience for proper entry setups. The bulk of the video then shifts to a technical analysis of Bitcoin’s daily market structure: a bearish weekly bias, a broken swing‑low, a bearish fair‑value gap, and a retracing order block. He outlines specific entry criteria—price sweeping two equal highs around $76,150, a CSD on the 5‑minute chart, and no 1‑hour close above $76,100—while noting the current news‑free environment and a moderate risk appetite (level 5‑7). He also promotes his X (formerly Twitter) feed for sharing trade execution details and promises more aggressive trading in future videos.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. What an amazing turn of events. We had the picture-perfect trade yesterday. I even called it on Twitter, and for the first 20 minutes, we basically went above 2R. So, you know, shout out to everyone who took this trade. And if you follow the system to a T, we usually go through 2R and we kind of call it a day. But me, I was looking to be a little bit more greedy yesterday, right? As you can see right here. In fact, if we just take a look at X— in fact, by the way, now that we're on my X, um, to see my execution, check out all of these. Like, there is so much alpha in them that, like, you guys are missing out if you're not If you're not watching that or like reading the things that I'm sharing. But yeah, otherwise, check it out. This tweet right here basically gave you the entry. I placed my stop slightly below. Yeah, not really. It was just about there. It was just about there. So there, right there. So yeah, I was going for a little bit above 2R, right? 2.37 in this case. Because if you go into the daily chart, you will see that price was in a pretty good spot for that to happen. As you can see right there, that was a previous daily high. Like I just thought, you know, Based on most conventional measures, you know this would be it. But no, price decides to stop just short of my target and do a full and do a full reversal. So yeah, instead of you know taking profit on basically like two and a half thousand dollars that was made in the span of about twenty minutes, the okay I just got stopped out break even. Unfortunate, but it is also the reality of going for a bigger win, which is kind of what I would like to take a couple of minutes to share if you would hear me out. So essentially there are two ways that you can go about trading. First of all is the kind of like consistent but you know small wins. Where you target no more than 1 to 2R. Now, as a result of that, you're going to have much more consistency, right? You're not going to run through as many losing streaks. You're going to have a higher win rate. And your results are going to be much more consistent. You're not going to get as many, you know, kind of like huge upswings or huge downswings. Now, on the flip side of things, you could go for what I like to call trying to hit a home run, which is kind of what I do most of the time with my own personal trading, even though that is not what I prescribe to you. But I will explain the reason for that in just a bit. But when you are going for a home run, it is very natural that you— well, first of all, you have to, you know, not have the tendency to want to take profit early because otherwise you're just going to cut your home run short. But secondly, as a result of aiming for bigger wins, there is going to be a much higher likelihood where your moves don't end up, you know, going to completion. And you might have to walk out of the trade being up $2,500 and then coming back down and leaving the day with nothing. Now, that is not a flaw of the system. That is not even a mistake. It is a natural thing that happens as a result of your objective. In my case, when I go for the big runs, Whenever I do win, I'm gonna make way more than the guy trying to go for a small consistent win. But as a result of that, I have to stomach, I have to accept the fact that there are gonna be more moments like this compared to if I was just going for the consistent, you know, 1.5R, 2R, and I can maintain an 80% win rate pretty easily. Like that is absolutely no problem. Before you start judging anything through all the systems or before you even start, you know, thinking that, you know, certain things that happened is a mistake, I want you to get really clear on what is your objective first. Before you even think about that, because the truth is, some like this is not a mistake. This is just part of the system and part of the goal that I'm optimizing for. So with that out of the way, let me know if you appreciated that bit of alpha. I'm going to get into the overall daily Bitcoin setup now. Yesterday it was picture perfect. The only other thing that I would kind of like add to that is by the time that I recorded the video, I think it was you know around four or five a.m. We got the CSD at six a.m., and it wasn't until all the way till nine a.m. ish that we finally got a retrace back into the order block. And that is like my entry was roughly at around that kind of like 10 AM mark. So yeah, it's very normal for you to need to wait quite a long time for the entry setup to kind of like present itself. And so patience is key here, right? You don't want to be jumping in just because you have the idea correct. The entry also matters a lot. But anyways, let's get into the daily setup for Bitcoin. Now, so far we have a bearish week-end close and right now Bitcoin's in a very interesting situation. Well, What do I mean by that? Well, that's because you now have left behind relatively equal highs, but it's also very clear that Bitcoin is currently in some sort of a downtrend. And if you go onto the weekly chart, you will see this downtrend a little bit more clearly where you have a bearish fair value gap right here and price is having a bearish weekly close as well. So you are, in terms of the weekly bias, you're bearish. In terms of the overall market structure, you're bearish. Like if we just zoom out, like this is very clearly where you have swing high, swing low, and right now you've broken through the swing low, right? So market structure is broken. So yeah, overall you're really bearish. But at the same time, you've left behind relative equal highs over here, which kind of leads me to believe that, you know, price may return back into, you know, this level at some point. But we're not going to count on it. The fact that we have a bearish weekly bias, plus the fact that we have broken through, um, just various levels, plus we have now come back into some sort of bearish order block, means that we are going to be looking for shorts until otherwise proven. So over here on the 1-hour chart, this is where you got your CSD. And secondly, this is the order block that price is currently retracing back into. And so the setup for today is honestly going to be pretty straightforward. Right now you're coming back up to swipe out these 2 relative equal highs right here and right here. So chances are, I think we're going to come all the way up here to $76,150-ish, and then we're going to start— and then that is the point where we're going to start looking for some sort of a short setup, in my opinion. Now, one other thing to definitely keep in mind as well is the fact that we also do not have news today. So in the spectrum of like, you know, from 1 to 10, where 1 you want to be as conservative as possible and 10 being the fact that you want to be as aggressive as possible, I'd say we're sitting somewhere around a 5, 6, maybe at most 7. So So it's not to say that today is completely untradeable, but we definitely want to wait for these highs to get swept out first, followed by a CSD towards the downside on the 5-minute chart, ideally without a 1-hourly close above this blue box right here at $76,100. Because the moment you close above this box right here, it kind of like shows you that, hey, maybe you're about to flip this bearish order block into some sort of bullish order block instead. And that's not— that's going to be a no-no. If that happens, we're just literally going to write off Bitcoin and we're no longer going to trade it. Simple as that, right? We have scenarios in mind, and if you know all if some of these conditions are not met, that means that at the end of the day, it's just going to be an idea. It is not a good enough idea to turn into a trade setup. Now one of the things that I will be doing for sure on X, if you follow me, is that I will be looking through forex charts, and if I see any trades on any other assets, I'll definitely be calling them. But otherwise, just a short and sweet video. Tomorrow is today that we're going to be a lot more aggressive with our trading. But until then, happy trading, and I'll see you in the next one. Ciao ciao.
