In this video Roman Ceccardi provides a real‑time, smart‑money style technical analysis of Bitcoin, reviewing his recent performance and outlining a trade plan for the day. He begins by reflecting on the previous week’s win‑rate (68/82 public calls) and explains why a recent short trade did not achieve the expected 2R target due to low volatility. He then moves to higher‑timeframe analysis, noting a bullish bias on the weekly chart supported by a filled bullish fair‑value gap (FVG) and higher‑highs/higher‑lows market structure. He highlights two key weekly zones that can accommodate retracements without breaking the uptrend. On the daily chart he identifies a “broken base” – a past liquidity point that has been swept, creating a new bullish order block. He explains how a daily bearish FVG could be invalidated by a close above it, turning it into support and confirming the bullish order block. He projects possible price paths: a short retracement into the broken base followed by a move toward the 108,400 target, or a brief dip before continuation. Ceccardi then discusses the role of news, breaking trading decisions into three variables: direction, magnitude, and timing. He points out that upcoming news events on Tuesday/Wednesday (including JPY news) are likely to drive volatility, while Thursday/Friday may be quieter. Moving to lower timeframes, he examines the 1‑hour chart (bullish order flow, key FVGs, and a bullish order block around 107,112‑107,131) and the 5‑minute chart (strong bullish bias). He outlines a precise trade setup: look for bullish order flow between 7 am–10 am New York time, respect bullish order blocks/FVGs, and target a 2R profit around 108,400. He advises tight risk (0.5‑1% per trade) and cautions against short positions unless bearish order flow dominates the 5‑minute chart. Finally, he reiterates his overall bullish bias, emphasizes alignment across timeframes, and provides a call‑to‑action for viewers to subscribe, join his bootcamp waitlist, and follow his daily analyses, noting an 80% win‑rate since February.
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What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Now we ended last week at 68 out of 82 of all public YouTube calls since February. However, I don't think it was necessarily wrong last Friday, but I wasn't like, you know, the market just basically didn't play out. Essentially the setup that I gave you guys was that, hey, once you get into this zone right here, look for a short. But keep in mind that because of the volatility that we have already experienced throughout that day, that, you know, there might not be a lot of volatility left for For the rest of the day, and that indeed came true. And I did mention that if you do take many trades, just look for a two R. In that sense, I'm going to say that I wasn't wrong. But then the market also didn't give us necessarily what we wanted, which is a two R target. So yeah, just basically the market was just not very volatile. Not going to count it as a loss, but probably not going to count it as a win either. But you guys let me know in the comment section what you guys think. I will go with the majority decision. But anyways, today we're going to try to repeat that win streak and try to keep it alive. And yeah, just give you the rundown on what's going on with Bitcoin today. And to kick things off, on the weekly chart, you are bullish overall. Again, you have just filled in this bullish fair value gap right now. And so even though last week was a bit choppy where you didn't really have a direction, like price went up, price went down, eventually you closed a second doji candle on the weekly chart in a row. So yeah, still very indecisive, but overall the trend is towards the upside. Not only is bullish order flow being respected on that fair value gap right there, but also if you take a look at market structure, it is also being respected. Again, order flow, market structure, that's just higher highs, higher lows, and we will expect this trend to continue until this changes course, until we're proven otherwise. And in terms of the higher time frame, the 2 levels that you need to pay attention to is like, as much as I hate to say it, it's like you can do quite literally anything between these 2 levels here. You could retrace all the way back down into this fair value gap right here and you it would still be fine. The uptrend would still be intact. This is the same exact method that I used to basically not panic when— back when this retracement happened. Because right here, you have a couple of fair value gaps. That's one, and that's two. And guess what? Price just retraced back into a 50%, right? Just retraced back into a discount. And ultimately, the trend continued. So ultimately, when you're in doubt, as they say, zoom out. But in this case, we just follow— I just keep the higher time frame flow in mind. There is a lot of noise that can be introduced in the lower time frames. But hey, as long as you keep the higher time frames in mind, you're going to be good. And so weekly, you are bullish. However, because of last week's bearish candle close, you may be just a tiny bit bearish to start the week, or maybe, uh, in the later part of the week. Although if, if I had to guess, I think we are going to the upside. So first of all, we're already coming into a bearish fair value gap on the daily chart, which could support the theory that we may get Lower. Now, one thing, one important thing to understand is that on the daily chart, this is already a broken base. Essentially, that is a past liquidity point right there. You've swept out that liquidity right here, and the price immediately in the next, next couple of candles, you did a very strong move towards the upside and you broke structure. Not only have you broken structure, but this is now your new bullish order block. This is what is known as a broken base, and this is one of the highest probability reversal-like patterns out there in the sense that this was a downtrend and then boom, now you just get a sharp turn back into an uptrend. And so right now you're retracing back into the base where we would usually look for an entry. We also have a change in state of delivery. So far the order flow is bullish, weekly is bullish, uh, daily chart based on yesterday's candle is bullish, which is why we're getting a bullish move at the moment. But right now just keep in mind that you are entering into a bearish fair value gap, although If my prediction's right, this should be invalidated. But to be safe, if you wait for price to actually break above this fair value gap, right, basically get one— all you need is one daily candle close above this fair value gap right here, and then boom, you're going to flip it into support and prices are going to start heading higher. Basically, a close above this fair value gap will completely fully validate this bullish order— sorry, this bullish broken base right here. That's valid, and boom, at that point it's never too late to still go long. Because so far, this could still be potential, even though I don't think it's very likely, but it could still be potential resistance purely based off the last weekly candle. Again, weekly bias is bearish, and daily we're coming into a bearish resistance area. Now again, I don't think it's very likely that we, you know, retrace a lot, but you could see some kind of a down move this week before moving higher. But overall, the trend, like if we keep the trend in mind, you may just get something like this. Instead. But more likely than not, probably something like this— come back into this bullish order block and then boom, start heading higher, and then flipping that bearish fair value gap into a bullish inversion fair value gap, and then off you go. At least that's on the daily chart, right? Just keeping this in mind before we move into the lower time frames. And taking a look at the 1-hourly chart, it is also in bullish order flow so far. And again, you're coming into a zone of resistance at the moment, which will Like this knowledge was going to help shape what we're going to do in the lower timeframes. Now, before I get into any of the lower timeframe stuff though, it's important to take a look at news because ultimately the way I always explain news to you guys is that in trading, there are always 3 variables that you're trying to figure out. One is, is price gonna go up or is it gonna go down, right? Direction. Second is how far up is it gonna go and how far down is it gonna go? That's basically the magnitude of the movement. And then your third variable that you're always dealing with is simply when is it going to happen, right? And how long is it going to take for that move to fully play out? And news is— news days are amazing in the sense that you basically know that, for example, on Wednesday at 8:30 AM, you got something's going to happen, price is going to move. Is your job— like, your remaining job is just to figure out where it's going to go or like how far it's going to go. That's it. And that's why we want to ideally be trading on the news days what we can see right now, Tuesdays and Wednesday this week seems to be the high concentration news events. On Thursday and Friday, probably expect the volatility to kind of like die down, just like what we saw last Friday. And today we also only have JPY news, and so today could be just the remaining— like the remainder of the day that we have in front of us could just be a less volatile day. But still, overall, From what we can see so far, all of the signs in the lower timeframe order flow seems to be pointing towards the upside, as well as the fact that we got a clean breakout above the Asia session. And currently we have left behind a couple of fair value gaps on the 1-hourly chart. And so the setup today is going to be pretty simple. Asia is basically going to be accumulation. You're going to get the breakout and then probably a retrace and a New York continuation. There are going to be a couple of zones that you're going to want to pay attention to on the 1-hourly chart for this continuation to happen. One of them is going to be right here at this fair value gap, and the second one is going to be right here. Although do not disregard this bullish order block right here. And basically, like, price has the potential to bounce from here, here, and here. What matters is the timing. Right now, as of the time that I'm recording this, it is 6 AM New York. And essentially all you want to see happen is when you get into 7 AM to let's say 10 AM, you want to look for price to give you a change in state of delivery. Basically, You just want to see bullish order blocks being respected, bullish fair value gaps being respected, and bearish fair value gaps and bearish order blocks being completely blown through. So as an example here, this is a bullish order block. Price breaks out, respects it, and yeah, like, just look for bullish order flow and you're going to be Gucci to target for a 2R trade. Now again, Mondays for crypto can be volatile, just like what we've seen last week where I was like, yeah, I'm pretty sure I know what the direction is going to be, but I'm not sure about the volatility. Again, It's tough to guess when there's no news. Monday so far seems like a volatile day, especially for crypto. But just in case, if you do take a trade today because of how volatile Asia and London have already been, just be cautious and potentially take a 2R trade or just go— might take your profit a little bit sooner. Anyways, if you do get a bullish continuation today, the target is going to be very simple, straightforward. It's going to be 108,400. Like, this idea can be easily invalidated, and what you're going to want to look for is for price to just start forming bearish order flow in the hour from now leading up to 7 AM, 8 AM, and if you just keep seeing bearish order flow and price, like, it does not change, then guess what? Today is going to be a no-trade day, at least based on the system. Because ultimately, with the system that I trade, I want timeframe alignment. So the daily bias is currently bullish. The weekly is currently bearish on paper, like, just purely off of the last weekly candle, it is bearish. The 1-hour chart is bullish at the moment, right? Overall, it is bullish, though you're touching into a bearish zone. And then the 5-minute is clearly, very clearly bullish. Let's just say that based on the system, today is probably not the best day to trade. Purely because, like again, we're overall bullish. We have reasons to be bullish, but we're also running into some bearish resistance at the moment. But the key thing to realize is that keep the higher time frame trend in mind, right? Because ultimately, if the higher time frame trend is up, then chances are that this fair value gap and this order block is just going to get completely disrespected, and price is just going to start heading higher. And so I'm not going to sit on the sidelines to let this pass by. The alternative, by the way, to a retracement, because you've already filled in this fair value gap technically, is that if price actually closes above this. Order block right here at 107112, like 107131, before 7 AM. Like basically right now, 6 AM. If this candle closes above, you could totally just look for a retracement at 7 AM or 8 AM into that order block and just continue trading higher towards the 108400 target. Overall, just keep in mind though that because of how volatile today has already been, New York could just be really choppy, and the highest probability trade for this week is likely going to be after you get a candle close on the daily chart above this So let me just refine that down. So once you get a close above this daily fair value gap right here, in fact, you can even refine it down to a balanced price range. If you can get a close above this, then boom, this is going to be the highest probability scenario for this week. Just keep in mind that if you take a trade today, this is going to be kind of like a level 2, level 2.5 setup. It's not going to be A+, but it definitely fits enough criteria to where it is valid, but definitely not the type of day where you take on like 2%, 3%, 4% risk. More of like a 0.5%, 1% max. And Of course, if today starts breaking lower, I would highly recommend not jumping into a short yet because again, tomorrow is going to be very telling. Tomorrow has news day. Wednesday also has a news day. So it is never too late to jump into a short after 1-hourly order flow has given you that kind of confirmation, as well as the daily. Like basically, yeah, if you get a bearish kind of close today, or if you just completely start getting rejected off of this fair value gap right here, then obviously the next day you're just going to trade it lower. And you have 1, 2, 3, 4 potential liquidity points and lower potentially. Like you have a lot of bearish targets to select from. For today, the setup is very simple. From what I can see at the moment, it is going to be likely Asia accumulation breakout, and then New York— like prior to New York, you're going to retrace and price is going to continue. But keep in mind that we have a couple of time frames just being misaligned, or that we are running into just a little bit of a higher time frame resistance, which again could be broken through easily. But just keep this in mind, play a little bit more cautiously. Take some profit at 2R. Definitely take your profit once you hit this target right here. And do not risk more than 1% on any trades that you do take today. Most importantly, you want to see the market give you the signs of continuation. It is— everything I say will be invalidated if you start just making bearish order flow on the 5-minute chart. And to give you an example of how bearish order flow looks like, in fact, look no further than what we did before here. Basically, once the price starts breaking down, right, it just— you form new bearish order blocks, and then you break down, and then you respect the bearish order block. And like, price just keeps forming bearish, bearish, bearish order flow. And ultimately price just continues heading lower. So that's something very important to keep in mind. As long as you do not have bullish order flow in between the hours of 7 to 10, then today's probably just a no-trade day. Personally, if there is a setup, I'm gonna be looking for it here, here, like, yeah, I've given you guys the game plan. Anyways, if you enjoy these analyses done from the smart money perspective on crypto, then make sure you subscribe because I'm gonna come to you daily with these kinds of analyses. And so far we have about an 80% win rate since February. Gonna look to maintain that, of course. And lastly, we are completely sold out, like one intake in advance for bootcamp. But if you would like to sign up to the waitlist to potentially work one-on-one with me, where I get you from where you are right now to funded within a 60-day period, then click the first link in the description box below, sign up to the newsletter because we will be announcing once the next waitlist opens up, because right now we Like the next intake hasn't even started yet and it's already completely sold out. But anyways, have a good day and safe trading, everyone. Ciao ciao.
