In this YouTube market‑update, the host reviews Bitcoin’s recent price action across weekly, daily, 1‑hour, and 5‑minute charts, explains why his previous trade call was counted as a win despite the trade idea not materialising, and presents his systematic approach to daily trade decisions. He stresses the importance of timeframe alignment (daily, 1‑hour, 5‑minute) and introduces a three‑level grading system (Level 1‑3) to filter trade ideas. The video outlines three possible scenarios for the day – a bullish breakout before the 10 AM USD news, a fair‑value‑gap fill leading to a bearish move, or a direct breakdown into a bearish order block – and advises caution, suggesting traders wait for confirmation around the news release. He also mentions a potential head‑and‑shoulders pattern near a daily fair‑value gap, but refrains from making an official call due to insufficient setup. The presenter wraps up by encouraging viewers to follow his Twitter for real‑time updates, subscribe to his newsletter for deeper content, and acknowledges the growing community around his analysis.
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What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Yesterday we talked about how price is going to take out this target, and indeed we did. The only obstacle that we face is the fact that price did not give us a retrace before hitting the target. But either way, because the condition for myself when I, you know, decide what to consider as a win or loss is that the target gets hit/direction correct without invalidation— that's a keyword— and I would say yesterday target got hit without invalidation. The trade idea itself that I gave didn't play out, but like, you know, we're tracking the analyses here, we're not necessarily tracking the trades. And so we're I count yesterday as a win. At least on the comment section below, I've seen that a lot of you have made money on yesterday's move. So we can confidently call it a win. That puts us to 64 wins out of the last 77 trades, or not trades, videos that we've made on YouTube so far over the last 4 months, which puts us up at around 83% win rate. So to those of you who are new here, just understand that I think you're at the right place because I tend to be right more often than I'm wrong. But otherwise, let's get into the update for Bitcoin today. Now, today is going to be a bit more complicated than yesterday. Just to give you an idea, yesterday, one of the reasons that made it tough for us to make an accurate prediction, even though we were still, you know, we still did well. The 1-hourly time frame was bullish, right? You have bullish change of state delivery over here. You have a bullish order block that broke above, came down to retest it, and ultimately, even though you, you know, wicked below that bullish order block, you did not close below it. And overall, you're getting another change of state delivery at the moment, and price is now retracing back into this bullish block right here. And so the 1-hourly chart is bullish. If you take a look at the daily chart as well, it is bullish because you have up-close candles. Now on the weekly chart, we have reason to believe that price may return back to this fair value gap right here, but overall it is bullish as well, except, uh, last week's weekly candle actually closed bearish, which means our bias for this week is actually bearish. So right now weekly is kind of bearish, daily is bullish, 1-hourly is bullish, and the moment we go into the 5-minute chart, like, it's of course giving mixed signals because it's the 5-minute chart and things happen quickly here. So at the moment though, It is showing bearishness because right now you're in bearish order flow on the 5-minute. Although ideally we want to be guided by the higher timeframe, you don't want to be making our decisions from the lower timeframe. So taking a look at the higher timeframe, these are going to be a few things to keep in mind. Now, one of the key tenets of my system that has allowed me to be so consistent throughout like the last 4 months is that there are clear criteria that I always use when it comes to determining the direction of the day as well as the potential trade setup of the day. And one of these criteria is timeframe alignment, meaning if I want to be short on something, I want the daily chart to be short, the one-hourly chart to be pointing short, and the five-minute to be pointing short. Specifically, those three timeframes. And if I'm long, or if I want to be long, then vice versa. Problem with today is that we do not have timeframe alignment because we have reasons to believe that the market is going down, but price action is showing us that it wants to go up instead. And so that makes it a bit tougher. But still, I'm going to give you guys the update, and like hopefully we make another correct call today. So on the daily chart, that's the daily fair value gap that we marked out yesterday. Ultimately, we started heading higher, and you have just filled in this daily fair value gap. And so. So now we have to make a very important distinction. Right now we have reason to believe that price is going to fill in this daily fair value gap and start heading lower towards this weekly fair value gap. That's what we have reason to believe. Now price action has not yet showed us that it wants to do this. Now if we take a look on the 1-hourly chart, we are still in bullish order flow. For all the people that use market structure, this is overall bullish market structure. So the market structure hasn't changed yet and the order flow hasn't changed yet. But the keyword here is yet. So within my system and just something that helps me filter trade ideas on a day-by-day basis because it's with so much information that you need to process in trading, you need some way to remain objective on a day-to-day basis so that you can remain consistent. And the way I approach this is that I grade my trade setups on 3 levels of 1, 2, and 3. Level 1 is that just straight up not enough factors have been met, and so this is not even a trade idea. So yeah, no trade yet. Level 2 is that it's starting to shape up, right? We're starting to see a few criteria being met, we're starting to see the direction, but it's not shaping up to be a— like, it's Getting there, but it's not a trade yet. And of course, level 3 is your, you know, A+ trades, or like, yeah, this is definitely a trade. Yesterday we were at a level 2.5, something like that. And again, today is going to be more of a level 2, because if you take a look here, we have a reason to believe that price is going to get rejected here, but it hasn't happened yet. And so that leads me on to today. Like, what I'm going to be doing today is that, like, I will still make a call. Don't worry about that. I'm still going to give you the analysis, but I'm going to be very cautious as to how I approach this day. I'm going to be patient to ensure that all of the criteria that I'm looking for are actually showing up before I jump into trade, because today is not one of those high probability conditions based on my system at least. And that's what I'm trying to share here. Like, my system can be very different from yours, which is why I'm trying to share here. Like, my system is very different from yours. Ultimately, I'm just sharing my perspective from my system, because this would be a trade like every day before the session starts. I look through the charts and I do this in my mind right now. These videos are just a way for me to share this. But anyways, with Enough of that said, let's jump into it. Um, daily chart, bullish bias, filling that fair value gap. Okay, boom, we already understand that. Now, 1-hourly, this is going to be the order block that you want to look at, potentially this fair value gap that you want to look at. Just remember that overall the trend is bullish, which means that there is a chance that this bearish order block could just get disrespected and this fair value gap could just get disrespected. So that would be scenario number 1, where if you break above this order block before or like during the New York AM session Just to give you another idea, today at 10:00 AM we have USD news. So if you break above this order block before 10:00 AM and you come down to find support, then this would be a reason for you to jump into a potential long trade idea. Entry here, stop loss there, and just targeting 2R or just targeting the current daily high. So this would be idea number 1. Now the thing that would invalidate this is if you fill in this fair value gap right here, there will be a chance that, you know, you just completely break through the order block. So This will kind of be like scenario number 2, right? If you fill in this fair value gap, then price is just, you know, potentially heading lower. And if this happens before 10 AM, then this is what you do, right? Just mapping out scenario number 2. And there's a scenario number 3, is that you just start breaking lower from this point onwards because this is a bearish order block. Now specifically, like, it's about half an hour until the New York AM session starts. And so if you start showing a movement, like specifically on a 5-minute chart, what I want you guys to notice is essentially this is a potential bullish order block right here. In fact, this is a bullish order block because price has broken above it. And so if for this to be validated, you want to form a higher low here and to make a new high. That's what you want to look for. Now, what gets invalidated is that if price breaks below this and comes up to find resistance here, this is a— what is known as a change in state of delivery. If you get this anytime between 7 AM to 10 AM without breaking above this high here, basically if price just starts breaking lower and starts showing bearish order flow from this point onwards, then it's going to be a pretty easy short all the way down to the previous daily low as well as the daily low from 2 days ago. So that will be the setup. Now just keep in mind that higher timeframe, you are pointing towards the bullish direction. And also like we have news at 10:00 AM today. So if possible, I would wait closer to 10:00 AM before I start taking any trades, specifically 9:00 AM, 9:30 AM during the futures open, or maybe even 10:00 AM. Or unless like if the conditions that I mentioned to you are fulfilled, then yeah, absolutely take a trade. But otherwise, like for me today, I'm gonna be playing it very cautiously and potentially even looking at other trade ideas and other pairs instead of Bitcoin. But either way, I will give you guys an update on what's going on With Bitcoin later on on Twitter, because that's where that's where I get to post these kinds of quick updates. If you guys would like to you know follow along that or just to get an update as to what the situation is because right now like I think you get the feeling that I'm sounding a little bit uncertain as well then yeah follow me on Twitter underscore the art of crypto. I'm going to leave the link in the description box below. So yeah guys like I wish I could give you a much better answer today like what I did yesterday just like hey guys it's going to go down or like last Friday hey guys it's going to go down just short it. Unfortunately today is not one of those days and you know sometimes. Sometimes it happens, right? Market conditions. And it's important to just, you know, identify these market conditions and trade accordingly. Now, another thing that I'm noticing right now as I'm hopping onto the daily chart is that we're getting a potential inverse— sorry, this is a head and shoulders. This is not an inverse head and shoulders. And if there's one place where you can form this, it's at this daily fair value gap. Again, tomorrow is going to be much more telling. If today closes bearish, then tomorrow is obviously going to be just a bearish trade. However, right now it's still level 2, and unfortunately this is not enough for me to make an official call. And so I'm going to state it clearly right now that I've given you guys the scenarios that could potentially happen. But because I am not telling you guys exactly where it's going to go, I will not count this towards an official call just because, well, it's very irresponsible, right? Oh yeah, I can always just give you a bearish and bullish scenario and I'll always be right. Exactly. So we're not going to count it today. But to the rest of you who've watched this video so far, just understand that I read every single comment. Thank you for all of the support over the last 2-3 weeks. I can really start seeing a community being built around this market update so far, and I will continue to do my best. Today is unfortunately not one of those days, but if you're also interested in you know getting more of these updates from the smart money trading perspective on Bitcoin and other altcoins, open to doing that. Then subscribe and turn on the bell notification. But otherwise, do subscribe to the newsletter because I'm setting a lot of value there and potentially a new masterclass that's coming up. The newsletter people will be the first to know. So sign up to the newsletter if you haven't already. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye bye.
