Bitcoin: Setting Up | FARTCOIN: Target Almost Hit

What's up everyone? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday we talked about the fact that Bitcoin was looking pretty uncertain in the sense that I do not know if these relative equal lows will be taken out yesterday or if these relative equal highs will be taken out yesterday. That's why I advised you guys to exercise caution and to potentially wait for the following day, which is today, before we dive into any trades. And in this case, this is one of those days where I think I don't see a very clear trade opportunity. And so I'm just going to leave it be. And then yesterday on Fartcoin, like our overall thesis was correct, right? With the direction being incorrect, but I did mention that, you know, with this trade idea here where we placed our stop loss here, the only thing that would possibly derail this is if Bitcoin were to dump. And if we take a look at Bitcoin, boom, right? When Bitcoin dumps, Filecoin kind of dumps. And that's why I kind of asked you to exercise some caution. So since February, we are now 42 out of 55 out of our trade analyses. Now, starting yesterday with the call on Bitcoin being that, you know, it was pretty uncertain and I did not give a trade, I'm just going to go ahead and put that up to 44 out of 55. Now with Fartcoin, I do not know if I should be putting that as a win or not because yeah, sure, we gave a good trade idea and we were right about the overall direction. We were also talking about how this trade could be derailed by a potential Bitcoin dump. Well, you guys let me know in the comment section below whether or not I should put that— count that as a win because so far, like even just on spot, like it's up over 10% overnight. So everything's so far so good on Fartcoin. But anyways, Given this accuracy, these are all of my publicly called analyses, which means YouTube videos. So if you're new to this channel and you're doubting if I know my stuff or not, well, you're in the right place. I would think so. Any further ado, I'm going to give you guys the update on Bitcoin today as well as talk about Fartcoin real quick, although I think we're about to hit the target. So Bitcoin starting off on the daily chart because we always start on a higher time frame before we go into the lower time frame so that we— whatever we see in the lower time frames, it is aligned with the higher time frame direction. Big mistake people tend to make is that they jump straight into the lower time frame and Boom, right? Look at the amount of noise on, let's say, the 15-minute chart. Is it going up or is it going down? We have no idea. For the astute eyes out there and says that we are ranging, you are absolutely correct. And that is kind of a similar situation we're going to be seeing on the daily chart as well. But taking a look at the daily real quick, yesterday we finally broke the inside bar because we have finally taken out the previous daily low and we failed to close above it. Now this by itself should be a bearish signal, but I was kind of monitoring the price the whole day today. And so far so good. It's seeming like it's giving you some kind of bullish direction, although not yet. So let me explain what I mean. Currently, this block right here, right, these 2 down-close candles need to be closed above. It's also the reason why I'm making the video a bit closer to the point where we may get a close above, because otherwise there is quite literally nothing to talk about. The reason why we want to see price close above this block is that it will potentially validate this as a potential bullish order block, which means if price were to return back into this area, we can look for a long targeting higher. Now, one of the Why we're pointing towards higher is that if we take a look at the daily chart, you'll see that the order flow is currently pretty bullish. Order flow being the fact that you have formed a bullish change of state of delivery over here, and currently this is the fair value gap that we're still kind of anticipating price to come into. And if price does come into this block right here, it's going to be a really good sign. So going back into Bitcoin, now that you understand what is the higher time frame direction, we overall want to look for longs. But then where the longs are going to come is still uncertain because one of the things that is very very concerning is the fact that first of all, you have now formed relatively equal lows here, right? This combined with this low right here forming right above the fair value gap is a classic signal for price sweeping out all of these highs, maybe breaking as change of state of delivery to the downside, filling in this one right here before ultimately reversing back towards the upside. Essentially, we're getting a delay to the trend, right? Price always moves from periods of high volatility to periods of low volatility, high volatility, and now low volatility again. Once you engineer this liquidity, you can sweep out the highs, sweep out the lows, fill in the fair value gap before moving up. So that's definitely the scenario that I'm considering the most at the moment, unless, right, unless there is always an opposite scenario. It's one of the things that I love to talk about in this channel, as well as just helping, like when I talk to students, especially guys in bootcamp. For example, I recently had the pleasure of bringing on Ahmed, which is a finance guy from the UAE into bootcamp. And one of the things that shows immediately, like that is immediately apparent from day one that he joins bootcamp is the fact that with his investment and finance background, he automatically thinks in terms of scenarios, right? It's never like, okay, price will definitely do this. It's more of like, okay, if this happens, then what do I do? If that happens, what do I do? It's kind of like preparing for scenarios. And then when they happen, you know, you sort of act on it. And I'm super happy that this is further validated by a professional in the industry. He's been working in finance for many, many years. And yeah, just a quick little, you know, backstory. And that's why it's super important to think about, you know, scenarios. And in this case, the first scenario is definitely going to be that which I about, which is you have relative equal lows, right? This is engineered liquidity right before some kind of higher time frame PD array. And it also just so happens that you have range highs here, you have relative equal highs, whatever you want to call this. Sweep this, boom boom boom, and then trick everyone out. Think— make them think that Bitcoin's going to go, you know, lower, that the quote unquote alt season is over, and then boom, reverse the market. And just to give you an idea of what would happen during— if that scenario were to come true, it would just be a retracement on the higher time frame. But on the lower time frame, would definitely look like a market structure shift. It would market structure break, change of character, whatever you want to call it. And but overall, like, you need to understand this is the current swing low and this is the current swing high that we're working with. Even if you don't want to look at it from that far out, you can say that the move started with this swing low right here, went all the way up to this swing high, which quite literally means that price can do anything, right? It can go left, right, upside down, inside out, whatever, as long as you do not break this high and as long as you do not break this low. The uptrend has not yet continued. And over here, the uptrend is not over until you break this low. That's the definition of a market structure break. Not this. Because if you just purely look at the market structure, right, those market structure gurus out there, this is what happens. Oh, we got a market structure break. But if you guys remember, we were calling for a long here. Why? Because overall, your order flow is in an uptrend, right? You want to base all of your analyses from the higher timeframe. Once you have that idea, then you understand that when you're in bullish order flow, sell-side liquidity sweeps right here lead to higher prices, which is also a similar story. Right? Right now you have all of these relatively equal lows. Boom, sweep. Everyone thinks it's market structure break, and then you go to the opposite side. That's going to be scenario number one. Chances are this happens next week, not this week. Now there's a second scenario, which is probably a little bit more applicable for today, which is the idea that if you do get a candle close, which is seeming like with one minute left to this one hourly candle close, it's seeming like you're going to get it. Then right now, essentially, like the quote unquote market structure is going to be broken. And from here on out, you draw a fib, and ideally you return back into a discount in order for you to get an entry. But based on how aggressively price has been, you know, being delivered today, I think that this will become your bullish order block. So you break above, come back into the bullish order block, and you can target this high here, but definitely for a 1R trade. Or if you target that high right there, you could potentially get a 2R, and that is just short of 2R. Now, you've got to be able to engineer these stop losses and whatever to achieve a 2R. Now, of course, there is always this target right here, which will give you a 2.5R. So this, I think, remains the intraday type of trade for today. Because overall, if we're talking about a much higher probability and high risk-reward kind of situation, we would definitely want to see this. Unless today plays out in a way where, for example, you break out of this order block, you come back down to validate it, and then tomorrow you immediately break market structure and stuff like that, and you just show signs that you want to continue going higher, then I'll be much more confident in telling you guys like, okay, hey, this is how it's going to happen. But for now, the reason why I'm planning out scenarios is because, well, truth be told, I am uncertain. And it's okay to admit that when you are trading. This is a game of incomplete information. It's a game of probabilities. And it's your job as a trader to try to stack the probabilities in your odds as much as possible. And in this case, I'm just kind of preparing for whatever situation there is. So at the moment, just to confirm this on the lower timeframe, Basically, what just happened is that on the higher timeframe, we have just gotten a change in state of delivery with this candle close above these candle bodies right here. And so once this happens, we have a clear drawn liquidity right there. And let's just see if we can confirm this on the lower timeframes. And yeah, you know, it's looking pretty much like bullish order flow. The only thing I would be concerned about is the fact that London initially swept above the Asia session. And so right now the trade is super clear because there are only 2 ways this can play out, right? One is either London breaks out of Asia, finds support, and then continues going higher, or London ends up being a manipulation above Asia and then New York distributes back to the downside. This is known as an AMD setup. It could also just be a continuation day. So right now, if we do take this trade, it's going to be super clear because the only way that this manipulation gets confirmed is if price breaks below this level right here, 94,800. That would mean that this is a distribution and price is actually going to, you know, just head down lower. And so if we do take this trade right here, stop loss is here. It's clear invalidation. This is a 2-bar trade. This is probably the only idea that I could see being valid today, unless when you get closer to the New York session, and if you get this kind of setup right here, then the play is definitely going to be to go short. But honestly, it's a bit of a hit or miss just because of the fact that one of the rules, cardinal rules that I teach when you are in bootcamp, is that you never want to be trading into weak highs and weak lows. Weak highs means relatively equal highs, right? Weak, like weak structure points are areas or like lows that has not swept any sort of liquidity. Just to give you an example of how that may look like, it's right here, right? This low forms without sweeping any sort of liquidity, and you can see what happens, right? Eventually it gets taken out, and price is attracted to these weak highs and weak lows. But for example, right here, this high forms after sweeping the liquidity, and that's why the move following That, you know, strong high. If you were to be trading this entire move here, right, it would be a strong move. It would be an aggressive move. And it forms after you get a strong high. Similarly, this is a strong low because there's swept liquidity, right? And there are many instances where you have weak lows or relative equal lows in this case that just eventually get tapped out because, well, they act as a magnet for liquidity. Right now you have weak highs over here. So I definitely wouldn't be comfortable telling you guys to go short. And there are also weak lows here, which is why I'm not telling you guys to, you know, go for a big, big long. It's more of like, okay, intraday, this is a situation. Only understand that today is probably a little less high probability and we have to act accordingly, right? Maybe if we do take a trade, we're going to get in and out real quick instead of trying to hold the trade overnight for multiple days for a, you know, big risk-reward day. Because at the very least right now, it could be setting up for that, but it's not there yet. Okay, that's the breakdown on Bitcoin. And by the way, guys, we have 9 days left before the free masterclass starts. In this masterclass, I'm going to be teaching you the 6 skills that you need in order to go full-time in into trading. And don't worry guys, this is not one of those like quote-unquote free webinars where I'm spending half the time talking about myself and the other half of the time sharing like some really basic information and then just ultimately try to sell you into something. This is going to be 2 hours straight of value and they're going to be, you know, multiple bonuses. And like, yeah, this is not something you want to miss. Again, it's absolutely for free. And one thing I can tell you for sure is that this is not going to be a waste of your time. If you are interested in the masterclass, make sure you sign up using the first link in the description box down below. But otherwise, let's wrap it off with a quick little analysis on Fartcoin because I think this trade has been picture— well, almost picture perfect, if not if we didn't get, you know, this second entry being stopped out. But still, right, price is heading towards the target of 1.29. Very obvious. The fact that price is so close now means that there's just one final push for price to go and you are going to be there. So real quick, that is a bullish order block that has formed today, and this is the bullish fair value gap that we can potentially trade from today. Essentially, if price returns back to here, then take a trade all the way up to here Entry here, stop here, target here. Pretty simple. Second is that if you— since we have broken above this order block right now and it's currently holding, you could actually just enter a trade from here, stop underneath the order block, target there. That's going to be a quick little 2R. Let me see if I can, you know, further spot any different setups if we go onto the lower time frames. Right away I can see like relatively equal lows here, which could be a concern. Also, uh, price is, you know, being delivered in a very choppy fashion. So yeah, honestly, ideal entry would be the sweep of that low there to fill in the fair value Yep. So that we can go higher from there. That would be my ideal entry. Definitely look out for this during the New York session. But otherwise, like, even an entry here, it's a little bit higher risk. So if you do take this entry, make sure you go half risk. But overall, like, Fartcoin's super close. But for those of you who are, you know, interested in Fartcoin, or maybe you might be holding Fartcoin in spot and, you know, you want to actually see it go higher, like, do we have room for that? Well, so far, like, order flow is looking pretty, pretty bullish. And in terms of the daily chart, this remains to be your order block that needs to be broken before you get any sort of change in state of delivery. And so if you do return back to this area, like you go long, like we assume the trend is going to continue until it breaks. That's how you do momentum trading. And so even if you have missed this trade here and you've missed the 15% move that occurred overnight, that's perfectly fine. Understand that the trend is overall still towards the upside and understand that these trends take a long time before they change. For example, you started going into the middle of a downtrend in the middle of January, and that downtrend lasted lasted all the way until the 10th of March. So 2 months basically. Like, it wouldn't even be like mid-March before you like get confirmed market structure breaks and changes in order flow and stuff like that to tell you that, hey, you know, the trend is now changed. Similarly, we have— you can argue that we have been in a downtrend since the mid of March till now in the end of April. So assuming you have another couple of weeks left before an uptrend, or perhaps even a couple months left of an uptrend overall, like, don't try to fade this yet until you get clear changes delivery on the daily time frame, or maybe you get a clear change in market structure, whatever. Until that happens, trade what the market is trying to tell you and not what you want to see from the market or what you think is going to happen in the markets. That is the words of wisdom that I'm going to leave you by. If you enjoyed these analyses from the smart money perspective on crypto, make sure you drop a subscribe button because I will be making these videos every single day, giving you guys the trade ideas, giving you guys the rundown of what's happening in the markets. But otherwise, guys, have a great day and I will see you in the next one. Bye-bye.