In this video Roman Ceccardi returns after a brief hiatus to provide a multi‑timeframe technical analysis of Bitcoin and issue a cautious trade outlook. He begins by noting a bullish weekly close that lifted Bitcoin above a key level, interpreting it as buyer interest and a bullish signal for the week. He then marks a daily fair‑value gap and a 4‑hour fair‑value gap, explaining that lower‑timeframe structure currently conflicts with the higher‑timeframe bullish thesis. Ceccardi describes his order‑block methodology, citing over 1,000 backtests with an 80 % success rate, and points out that recent bearish order blocks and weak lows suggest bearish pressure on short‑term charts. He outlines price targets: a real bullish breakout would require a daily close above $88,000 and a weekly bullish candle to push toward $94,000, with a potential move to $100,000 if the weekly remains bullish. However, given the weak lower‑timeframe structure, he advises against taking a long position today, labeling it a “no‑trade” day unless the market sweeps the equal lows during the New York session, likely after the 8:30 AM unemployment claims news. He briefly mentions that other crypto pairs, especially Solana, may present opportunities, but the focus remains on Bitcoin. The video concludes with a promotion of a revamped free 7‑day email trading course that addresses the seven most common trader problems.
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What's good, guys? I know it's been a long time since the last video, but I was traveling over the last few days, hence why I couldn't make a video. But today I finally settled in, got my new setup. It's time to bring back those daily uploads. So taking a look at Bitcoin right now on the weekly chart, last week we had exactly what we were talking about, which is a weekly close above this level right here. Basically sweeping these lows and not closing below it signifies that there are interested buyers in keeping price above this level. And that's a really good thing if we are bullish on Bitcoin, which hopefully we are. And in this case, because we had such a bullish weekly close last week, this means that this week we are also very bullish. I know that this is already getting close to being the end of the week, but what's interesting is that this week has been relatively boring in terms of volatility, and we have news later on in about 4 hours. So I think today, if any day, will likely give us some much-needed volatility. So right off the get-go, we're going to mark out a fair value gap that we can see on the daily chart at the moment. which is right there. Perhaps we might fill it, but I don't think we are going to return to that today. And taking a look at the 4-hourly chart, there are a couple, you know, relatively equal lows at the moment, and the high right here has already been swept. That was a 4-hourly fair value gap, I believe. And price is currently kind of breaking structure to the downside, which means that the lower timeframe does not look to be aligning with our higher timeframe thesis at the moment. Because on the weekly chart, the fact that we had a bullish weekly close means that, well, first of all, the previous weekly high needs to be, you know, taken out, which it already has. So perhaps the bullish move of the week has already been taken out. Just to explain what I mean, every time we get a bullish candle close, the drawn liquidity is going to be on the previous candle high. So you can apply this from the weekly timeframe all the way down to the 1-hourly or even the 5-minute timeframe, where, for example, on the 1-hourly, if you get a bearish candle, then you would anticipate the previous 1-hourly low to get taken out on the very next candle. I have had data of more than 1,000 backtests at this point on this concept. And it works 80% of the time. So taking a look at the weekly, perhaps the higher timeframe objective has already been taken out because you know the previous weekly high has already been swept. So and one of the reasons why I'm kind of leaning towards the bearish side at the moment is because of the fact that we're having kind of weak market structure on the lower timeframes, meaning you have swept this high here, which means this becomes a strong high. But then these relatively equal lows here are known as. Weak lows. And weak lows tend to be targeted, strong highs tend to be protected. I wouldn't be surprised if you came down to sweep all of these lows, fill in the February gap. And honestly, at this— at that point, maybe you bounce. But more likely than not, one thing to keep in mind is that on the higher time frame, you are still within bearish order flow until otherwise proven. So just to give you an idea of what I'm talking about, basically since the start, or rather the middle of January, you have been, you know, forming bearish order blocks, breaking down, forming another bearish order block, and then respecting it again. Boom, that's a bearish order block. Boom, price comes up, fails to break above it, heads downwards. So for now, until you break above basically like $94,000, at the moment it's still looking pretty bearish. And the first step to actually like real, real bullishness would be at least going above $88,000, ideally getting a daily close above it. Or even better yet, if this week you can maintain a bullish weekly candle, then boom, next week 100%, I think you are going to target right here, $88,000, and potentially even higher. But that would be to draw on liquidity if you get a bullish weekly close this week. All in all, the TLDR is that at the moment it's looking kind of uncertain in the sense that the higher timeframe is kind of pointing towards the upside, but the lower timeframes— like, I wouldn't be comfortable, you know, telling you guys to go long here because you have these relatively equal lows. I gotta call the market as I see it, not based on what I would like to see or based on whatever is going to get the most views. That is my responsibility to you guys as the person making these videos. So in this case, the TLDR is that— there is probably no trade today unless you sweep either one of these, you know, relatively equal lows right there sometime during the New York session, or perhaps even in the New York morning. It could happen after news. Like, just to give you an idea, we have, uh, 8:30 AM, we have unemployment claims. That is a piece of news. But today, the majority of the news are actually concentrated within the, you know, the euro pairs. Like, I called the trade earlier today on the GBP. That's, you know, kind of almost on the way to playing out fully. But just on Bitcoin, I would expect the volatility to come in after 8:30. But in general, I think today is going to be a no-trade day for Bitcoin. Now perhaps there is a trading day for the other crypto pairs, but honestly I think it is very unlikely unless you have an outlier like Solana, for example, which is moving very differently compared to Bitcoin at the moment. Where if you take a look at the Bitcoin and Ethereum chart, you can see that they look pretty similar, but the Solana chart is definitely outperforming both of them. And so in this case, you may have a setup on Solana. But we're not going to talk about Solana. But I— what I will talk about is the new and improved free email course. Guys, I spent the last few days working on completely revamping the current free email course that we have and basically identifying the 7 most common and biggest problems that most of you are facing when it comes to your trading. And inside, I have provided you a step-by-step roadmap on overcoming those problems. If you would like to receive this for absolutely free, delivered straight to your email over the next 7 days, click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in the next one. Ciao ciao!
