In this YouTube market‑analysis video, Roman Ceccardi reviews Bitcoin’s recent price action and evaluates whether the market bottom has been reached. He begins by recapping last week’s trade, noting a missed entry due to a fair‑value‑gap fill and highlighting his overall win‑rate of 122 wins out of 154 publicly called trades. He then examines the weekly chart, identifying a bullish bias as Bitcoin bounces off a bearish order block, and explains the significance of the range high/low dynamics. Moving to the daily chart, he points out a short‑term bearish change of state that could flip to bullish if price closes above $115 K, potentially redefining the $150 K–$106 K zone as a new bullish order block. Ceccardi stresses the importance of higher‑timeframe context before drilling into intraday setups. He reviews the news calendar, noting a quiet Monday‑Tuesday and anticipating major catalysts later in the week (Fed rate decision). He classifies today’s trading day as “B‑tier” – not ideal due to lack of news – and outlines a specific intraday long strategy: watch the 5‑minute chart between 7 AM‑10 AM for bullish order flow at a bullish order block or bullish fair‑value gap, enter with a 2R target and tight stop, and keep position size modest. He then briefly applies the same framework to Ethereum and Solana, highlighting their bullish weekly bias, key levels ($4,236 for ETH, order block for SOL), and the high correlation between BTC and ETH. Finally, he promotes an upcoming free masterclass on November 28 and encourages viewers to sign up for his newsletter, while ending with a light personal note.
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What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Bitcoin ended up pumping by quite a good amount over the weekend, and in this video I'm going to break down if the bottom is in or potentially we're maybe looking at a little bit more downside before the bottom is truly in. And yeah, without any further ado, let's dive right into it. Also, last week's trade, uh, just to break it down for you guys who, you know, ended up trying to take it, we had the fill of the 1-hourly fair value gap and then, you know, price immediately just shot upwards without giving much of a chance for us to go into a retrace actually. And so ultimately I think a lot of people would've missed the, you know, the entry, including myself because I was at dinner. So once you got the actual CSD, price ended up, you know, just going the opposite direction. And so out of respect for that, even though we did call the fact that, you know, you would retrace here and you would eventually go up, like the actual setup based on the system that we're trading here just didn't get fulfilled. And so that puts us at 122 wins over the last 154 publicly called trades here on YouTube. And overall, like last week was just kind of a rough week, kind of like what I've prefaced You know, early in the week and throughout the week as well, that the fact that we had so little news means that the entire week is not just— yeah, it's just not going to be ideal. The fact that we even got a couple of, you know, small wins from last week is already quite a miracle. But yeah, you guys are now seeing a very clear example of what happens when you start trading or trying to find trades in low probability conditions. Like, yeah, sure, it is possible to be traded. Is it smart to allocate, you know, mental and financial resources? into weeks like that? Not really. And the truth is, you don't really need to be trading every single week. And like, one good week out of, you know, the month is really all you need to make a really good living from trading. But yeah, that aside, we're going to get into the setup for today. Let's just kick things off on the weekly chart because, you know, we need to get an idea of what's happening on the higher timeframe before we can start looking at lower timeframe stuff so that we don't get lost in the noise. So last week ended up closing bullish, which means this week we are looking for a bullish trade. Again, we are still in the process of bouncing out of this bearish order block right here from the weekly chart. The fact that you did not close below this level here is a great sign because we were fully expecting the weekly to close below this level. But so far, again, the buying pressure has started coming in. There are interested buyers to keep price above this level. And if you guys don't remember what this level is, it's the level where if you close below, you are potentially going to get a bearish CSD from the weekly chart. And at that point onwards, we're going to look for price to retrace into it before we start selling short. The fact that it is not happening, in fact, the fact that price is showing a pretty strong reaction to the upside, good enough proof that, hey, the market is likely to go up from this point onwards. Where's the bottom in? I don't know, because you're kind of coming into the second part of this equation in a sense that for the most part, price has been forming a range, right? With this being the range high and this being the range low. Now, previously, price ended up coming close to the range low, and now ultimately price is coming back into the range high. Now, the thing to keep in mind when it comes to this is that, is that when you get to the range high, 80% of the time what price tends to do is either you revert back to the mean or you go back to the range low. Now, granted, the higher timeframe bias, we are looking at bullishness, but in terms of the daily chart, you have in fact gotten a bearish change of state delivery right here. So technically, the daily chart is at the very moment a little bit bearish, at the very least until you close, until you get a candle close above this level right here at $115K. At that point, you can say, okay, potentially this entire block from $150K down to $106K is going to be a new order block on the bullish side. So you can potentially look for a retrace into it, right? When you revert back to the mean, you're reverting back into just a level of support before price ultimately goes up. Now, we— this is not confirmed yet though, which is the only thing you need to keep in mind, because at the moment you are sweeping into range highs plus filling in this bearish fair value gap right here, which so far based on what we understand about these concepts like the fair value gap, plus, you know, based on our understanding of ranges, the correct move to expect here is for price to at least give a pretty short-term retrace. However, based on the weekly bias, based on, you know, all of these daily candles so far, the daily bias is still going to be towards the bullish side. And so we're going to be hunting for a bullish trade. It doesn't mean that today we are guaranteed to go long, but we look for a bullish trade for today. Now, before we get into the actual intraday setup, It's important to first understand what is going on in terms of news. And by the way, I found out recently that the reason why Forex Factory was not loading for me, maybe because of the fact that I am currently in Indonesia. Once I actually turned on the VPN, like, started loading. So joke's on me because the entirety— because throughout the entirety of last week, I was like, oh yeah, you know, Forex Factory is not working. In reality, I was the one who's not working. So let's just take a look at news. So Monday, no news. Tuesday, no news. So ideally, These two days are to be avoided because news actually comes on Wednesday, it comes on Thursday, and it comes on Friday. So Monday and Tuesday may just be you know kind of like a setup kind of day where we have a bullish daily bias right now. The daily, the weekly open is kind of here. So Monday, Tuesday, we may see price just you know dip below the weekly open to give the smart money, right? The people who are actually aware of what's going on, an opportunity to get in before price shoots up because before price shoots up in the direction of the weekly bias. And so this Monday and Tuesday is Maybe even going to give us an opportunity to buy in low so that we can ride the weekly wave towards the upside. This is exactly what we got last week as well, where price— let's take a look here. So the weekly opened 8 PM. All right, so this is where the weekly opened. And Monday and Tuesday, you actually went underneath the weekly open, but then the rest of the week you were going towards the upside. This is known as a concept called the Power of 3, and this is what we're kind of taking advantage of. Just coming back down to the lower timeframe. Again, just because we have a feeling or like this is a scenario that's likely to happen doesn't mean that we're going to look to trade towards that direction. Because ultimately, the trades that I'm calling here on these videos are intraday setups, which means we're opening and closing the trade quite literally within the span of hours. And so the setup for today intraday-wise, we are still going to be looking for longs. It's not going to be towards the short side. Besides that, that theory that I talked about just now is just kind of like theory, right? It's something that I have observed over time throughout the markets, that it's something that is likely to happen. But the market at the moment, in terms of order flow on the higher timeframe, on the lower timeframe, everything's pointing towards the upside. And so there's a difference between trading what we think should happen, uh, versus trading what is actually going on in the markets. And so we're going to stick to the second side of the equation, which is today we're going to be hunting for longs. Now, in terms of longs, there are 2 key levels that we want to pay attention to. The first one is right here at this bullish order block. And the second one is going to be this bearish— sorry, this bullish fair value gap right there. So in the event that in between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM, you get a bounce from either one of these levels in terms of the 5-minute chart, that is going to be your long trigger. Now, I want to preface this again that today is not a high-quality trading day. Now, if it were up to me, I would not be trading today because we have no news. And I have a very clear kind of bias as to, you know, what is going to happen Monday, Tuesday. Before we get kind of like a true move on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Essentially, if we could have like a tier list of like what the quality of trading days, today would probably be on the B side of things, right? It's not the worst, but it's not the best either. And if there are days where we want to be prioritizing our trading, it's going to be those A+ days. It's going to be those, you know, S-tier days. And that's going to be coming on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Again, your federal funds rate on Wednesday. So that is going to be huge. Like most likely you are looking at another drop of 25 basis points, which is incredibly bullish for risk-on assets like crypto, Bitcoin, the stock market, or whatever. So again, you have a huge news event coming up. So Monday, Tuesday, if you can avoid it, just avoid it. There is potentially even a pretty high chance that we are going to lose today just because of reasons that I've already mentioned from before, right? You're at range highs, fair value gap, stuff like that. But if there is a setup, we're still going to take it, only if all of the conditions kind of line up. So now that we're going down into the 5-minute timeframe, the thing that you want to look for is at the moment, The five-minute time frame is showing very bearish order, and you do not jump into trades until it starts going into bullish order flow. And bullish order flow is essentially when bullish order blocks and bullish fair value gaps are being respected. So an example of it would be here, right? There's a bullish order block. Price breaks up, retests the order block, respects it, goes higher, and eventually price comes back into this bullish order block and continues going higher. So this entire leg here was in bullish order flow. Now this entire leg here is in bearish order flow because well. Bearish order blocks are being, you know, respected, and bullish order blocks like this one is in the process of getting blown through. So between the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM, if you get bullish order flow, then you can go in, take a 2R. Essentially, if this is your entry, you place a stop loss like that, you target for 2R, basically 2 units of your stop loss. And if you have that, then that's done deal. Again, this is, as far as trading days go, this is not the best type of trading day. And so you want to You know, played accordingly, which is you take this a little bit more cautious, meaning you don't enter, you know, into huge sizes. And secondly, you take your profit a little bit sooner because there's no news and you're not anticipating a whole lot of volatility. And also lastly, just be aware that in terms of the higher timeframe, we have a reason to believe that Monday, Tuesday could be going down. Is that going to happen? Nobody knows, which is why all of these confirmations that I talk about in these videos are so important. And ultimately, I am very responsible As the person making these videos to you know inform you of all the risks that are you know associated with taking a trade like this, and it would be incredibly irresponsible of me if I were to just tell you oh yeah you just go long here and you take profit here or whatever. I know that is what most people want. Unfortunately, that is a very irresponsible thing to do due to the uncertain nature of the markets. But otherwise, yeah hopefully that gives you a pretty good idea for what's going on on Bitcoin. Now we're going to take a look at Ether real quick. And taking a look at the weekly bias, you are still looking pretty bullish. So you are also having a bullish weekly bias. Ethereum, by the way, is a little bit more bullish compared to Bitcoin at the moment, just based on how price action is shaping up. Although at the moment, you are quite a bit away from this level right here, which ideally you want to close above this level at $4,236 before you can say that you are truly in bullish order flow in terms of the daily chart. But still, today we're going to be looking for trades towards the upside, and this one is pretty clear. You have this bullish order block right here, but most likely it's going to be this bullish fair value gap. And if you fill it 7 AM to 10 AM, that is going to be the setup. Pretty easy. Now, again, I say this time and time again, but you don't want to be opening a long on both Bitcoin and Ethereum at the same day at the same time, because ultimately if Bitcoin dumps, Ethereum is going to dump. If Bitcoin pumps, Ethereum is going to pump, which basically just means that both of these assets are highly correlated, which means if you take 2 trades, you think that they're different, but they're not. They're the same trade, just with a different name tag. On it. Solana also looking pretty bullish, but in terms of Solana, instead of a further gap, you're actually looking at a bullish order block. In fact, from this point onwards, if you start seeing a shift in bullish order flow, you're already welcome to start going into Solana. Basically, if you start breaking here, entry here, stop here, target to R, and you're going to be set. By the way, guys, if you've been watching these videos for a very long time, I've never actually made a video like breaking down my exact system before, like in a step-by-step manner. And in the upcoming month, on the 28th of November, most likely, I will be holding a free masterclass on just, yeah, showing you guys exactly how to do, you know, what I've been able to achieve here on this YouTube channel. And if that is something that you may be interested in, I want you guys to sign up to the newsletter right now because they are going to be the first ones to be notified to sign up to this free masterclass. It's completely for free. If you've attended a free masterclass of mine in the past, you know just how value-packed it is. So yeah, the earlier you sign up to the newsletter, it's the earlier you're going to be notified when you are able to sign up. But for now, that's it. Hopefully it doesn't rain because I would really love to go play some basketball. But not looking likely at the moment. See you guys today. Ciao ciao.
