In this YouTube video, the host (Roman Ceccardi) provides a comprehensive intraday trading commentary focused on Bitcoin, with additional coverage of Ethereum, Solana, and macro assets like the US Dollar Index (DXY) and the euro. He begins by acknowledging a recent three‑trade losing streak on public calls, but emphasizes that his systematic approach still maintains a roughly 75% win rate over 180 trades, underscoring the importance of discipline and understanding market conditions. He outlines a bearish weekly bias and a bearish daily bias for Bitcoin, explaining how range‑trading days differ from trending days and noting that yesterday’s market appeared manipulated, leading to choppy price action. The core of the video is a detailed Bitcoin trade plan: the price is currently in a range on the 1‑hour chart, with the Asia session midpoint serving as a key reference. London has been trading below this midpoint, suggesting bearish pressure. The host targets a short‑side breakout (CSD) on the 5‑minute chart, ideally occurring between 7:30 AM and 9:30 AM around the scheduled 8:30 AM news release (CPI, potential US shutdown). Critical price levels are highlighted – a close above 67,760 would invalidate the setup, while a close below ~67,000 would reinforce the bearish outlook and set up an Asia‑London‑New York continuation trade. He then shifts to Ethereum and Solana, both also in a bearish daily bias but showing slightly more relative strength than Bitcoin. For Ethereum, a 1‑hour CIV below $1,940 is required before considering a short, while Solana lacks a clear short setup at the moment. He advises viewers to prioritize Bitcoin due to the clearer signal. A macro segment reviews the DXY and euro moves at the 8:30 AM news window, noting that the usual inverse correlation between DXY and Bitcoin broke down (both rose), and the euro fell sharply, illustrating market unpredictability. Finally, the host promotes a free 6‑hour masterclass replay that teaches his full trading system, encouraging viewers to access the link in the description, and invites them to follow his live trading on Twitter.
Chapters
What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. I honestly cannot remember the last time this system ended up going through like a losing streak of 3. So far, officially, the last 3 trades that I've taken publicly on Twitter, like on a public call with you guys, have all been losses. But even with that, I think this puts us comfortably above 75% win rate across like 180 trades. So overall, like as long as we continue doing the right thing, it should even itself out. But what's also important to understand is that, you know, yesterday was another example of everything aligns with the system and boom, price just decides to go the other way. Instead of giving us a pretty, you know, solid, clean volatile move, we ended up just really chopping around after like a really big pump and a really big dump. And then, you know, the rest of the day was chop. So yesterday was clearly like, if it wasn't apparent yesterday, it should be apparent now that it is a bit of a manipulation type day. And there's nothing really we can do about that, right? Ultimately, like as traders, you know, conditions A, B, C, D, E are filled, we take action. And if they're not filled, then we don't take action. It's as simple as that. So let's continue doing the right thing because overall the system is profitable. And one of the most important lessons that you can kind of like take away from this is that even if you are in a losing streak, it's important to understand, all right, what is this being caused by? Is it, you know, market conditions? Is it that you are being, you know, undisciplined as a trader? Are you just doing random things? Or like in this case, it's market conditions, which is fine. Like, nobody expects a system to work every single day, 365 days of the year. Just like how, you know, yesterday we talked about how there is a difference between range trading systems and trend trading systems. This is not going to perform particularly well in ranging conditions. And on the flip side of things, range trading systems are not going to perform well when, you know, there are trending days. So it's just going back to that type of example. But either way, let's get into the daily trade for today. So far, we're still dealing with a bearish weekly bias. So what's really important for you to understand is that this was most likely the high of the week. You know, if you remember what I talked about on Monday, it's like, all right, anything— anytime you go above the weekly open is an opportunity for you to sell so that you can take advantage of an expansion towards the downside. To those of you who are more of a swing trader or potentially a day trader, then, you know, potentially you have taken advantage of that. If you did, congratulations. But, um, I'm an intraday trader primarily, so it doesn't quite apply to me, at least not on a, you know, kind of Like, okay, yeah, I know this is going to happen, so I'm going to take a trade. It's more of like it informs me of how I'm going to structure my intraday trades throughout, you know, every single trading day. And Tuesday, Wednesday, there's a reason why I was more confident going short. However, during the timing that we went short, price ended up doing up and down. But overall, like past the kill zone, past the, you know, the news timings, everything was just kind of pointing towards the downside. Case in point, if you take a look at the daily chart right now, you have— you're looking pretty bearish on the daily chart. So either way, we have a bearish daily bias, which means that we're going to be looking for shorts for today. Now, today makes it a little bit tougher of a day, just purely like straight up based on what I can see the moment I hop down onto the 1-hourly chart. It's pretty obvious that we're in some sort of range right now. And so far, for the past like 5 hours, price has been pretty boring, to say the least. We have not particularly moved much. And so we're going to have to navigate today with a little bit more caution, keeping in mind that the overall daily bias is towards the downside and the fact that most of London so far has been trading beneath the midpoint of the Asia. Now, this is really important to understand because the midpoint kind of dictates a lot about, or at the very least, it tells you a lot about where the market finds its strength at and whether or not market participants are believing that, okay, they would rather be leaning towards a bearish day or a bullish day. As an example, if you manage to trade above the Asia high and if you trade the majority of London above the midpoint of the Asia range, That is a sign that there is a lack of interest in pushing price down. In fact, the flip side is true, where there is a lot of interest in keeping price above a certain level. So clearly today is, you know, most of the price, most of London has been trading below the midpoint of the Asia. So that is kind of like the saving grace to where even though overall on the 1-hourly chart we are in a range, we are looking at a micro range here where in the event where we retap the midpoint of the Asia high, potentially sweeping out these relatively equal highs, basically the range highs, that might give us an opportunity to jump into a breakout trade towards the downside. So the way this is going to play out, A, is, you know, you kind of go back to the mid-range, and then you're going to want to look for a CSD towards the downside on the 5-minute chart. Now, before we look for that, what's important to understand is news timing. Today we have news again at 8:30 AM. Now, I understand that the US government is going through a bit of a shutdown at the moment, which is, you know, may or may not be caused by the Epstein files. I don't know about this, like, just based on what I've heard. Either way, what's important to understand is Not only have I proven this time and time again in the past with, you know, the trades that we've called here on this channel, where you guys remember, like, a couple months ago, like 2, 3 months ago, the US government went through, like, a shutdown for, like, a solid month and a half, 2 months. And even throughout, you know, that entire period, price was still exploding, right? There was still a lot of volatility at around the times when news was originally supposed to drop. So, for example, Tuesday, 8:30 AM, usually you get CPI, And on those days, even though there was officially like no news, price still moved as though there was news. Case in point, yesterday was also a very similar story where, you know, the news from yesterday was supposed to be postponed by 5 days. And yet, if you take a look at the 8:30 AM candle, case in point, right there, 8:30 AM, boom, right? Price explodes at 8:30. So this again goes to prove that one of the very controversial takes that I have about the market, which is it does not matter what news it is. What the result of the news is. What matters is that news is a volatility catalyst, which means when people see that there is news today, oh yeah, price is going to move at CPI at 8:30, right? That there's a reason for price to move. That is the sole purpose of news. So don't get too caught up in, oh, but the US government is going through a shutdown. Oh, but the CPI is bullish, so price has to go bearish or whatever. No, it doesn't matter. What matters is that there's news. What matters is that when there is news, the probability of the system goes up by a lot. Anyways, today we have news, which means that the ideal trading time window for today is going to be the hour leading up to news and the hour after news. So basically 7:30 to 9:30 AM is when you want to look for this CSD to happen. Right now, we're already kind of retapping that Asia mid-range. Now, what you want to look for is for price to again do that CSD. And ideally, you do not want to see price going above the Asia mid— sorry, the heck? It's fine to go above the Asia mid-range for a bit, but you don't really want to see price consistently kind of reclaiming that level, if you know what I mean. So the level that is going to just completely invalidate the trade setup for today is going to be this one right here at 67,760. In the event that you get a 1-hourly close above this level, that is going to invalidate your trade. Because so far, so far, if this happens, this is going to turn into a bullish 1-hourly CISD, where at the moment we have a bearish 1-hourly CISD at the moment. And this would invalidate the idea. And what happens when the trade gets invalidated? It means that we're not going to trade today. Not every day is a trading day. Not every week is trading week. Sometimes not every month is a trading month. So overall, that is going to be the overall setup for today. And obviously, if you manage to get a one-hour close below this level right here at around $67,000, that will further cement the fact that you are in fact bearish, and that will kind of set the precedent for some sort of an Asia accumulation, London breakout, and then New York continuation type trade. Highly, highly depends on. How price action reacts to this, um, this Asia mid-range though. Anyway, now that we're done with Bitcoin, quick heads up by the way, if you are interested in learning this full system for like free, I did a 6-hour masterclass a couple of months ago and you're able to get the replay, all of the resources and everything for absolutely free. Um, click the first link down below. But otherwise, let's get into Ethereum. Now as far as Ethereum goes, again, we are dealing with a bearish daily bias. Ethereum, I imagine, would be looking Quite a bit weaker compared to Bitcoin, although— So Ethereum, yeah, we're very much looking at a bearish daily bias. Now, again, I'm going to sound like a broken record here because like on events, on days and weeks where Bitcoin is in a very clear downtrend, the majority of altcoins are just going to follow suit. So yeah, on paper you have access to hundreds of thousands of crypto tokens that you can trade from, but the reality is you're really just trading Bitcoin because, you know, if Bitcoin dumps, everything kind of dumps. As far as Ethereum comes, it actually is looking a little bit stronger than Bitcoin, to my surprise. But either way, we're going to be looking for a short here. And I think with Ethereum, the very clear setup is going to be a 1-hourly CIV towards below $1,940. If you haven't gotten that 1-hourly CIV below that, I don't think you want to really consider that for a short. So as far as Ethereum goes, like, I think you want to relax. There is a potential where you can sweep out this liquidity point right here at $1,988 and then having some sort of an upside move. But at the moment, Bitcoin definitely looks like it has a clearer setup compared to Ethereum. So I would Personally, like personally, I would lean towards Bitcoin if I was you, just for, you know, the quality of the setup. One other thing to mention is, like, yeah, I'm actually going to get into like a 1-minute spiel later on the DXY and euro. So feel free to stick around for that. Otherwise, Solana, you are dealing with a bearish daily bias. And when you go down into the 1-hourly chart, you will see that you have not yet gotten that 1-hourly CSD. In fact, you might even be getting a 1-hourly CSD towards the bullish direction. So yeah, in terms of Solana, as far as shorts come, I would definitely just prioritize Bitcoin today. Both Ethereum and Solana seem to be having a little bit more strength compared to Bitcoin so far. And now let's get into DXY. You know, what's interesting about yesterday is that the dollar index and euro, like if you take a look at the 8:30 kind of move, you can see that the dollar index went basically up by like a whole point. Well, sorry, half a point. Let's see. Yeah, half a point, which is ridiculous, right? For an hourly candle, for hourly move for the DXY, that is huge. Yeah. And yet, even though people say that the DXY is inversely correlated to Bitcoin, which means DXY go up, Bitcoin tends to go down. Clearly, we have been proven wrong yesterday because DXY went straight up and Bitcoin went straight up. So yeah, by all accounts, I think this just kind of like brings us back to what we were talking about earlier, where the trade was sound, the logic was sound. It just didn't end up playing out in the way that we wanted it to. And ultimately, at the end of the day, that's fine. Sometimes you get situations like this that are a bit unexplainable and it's perfectly fine to, you know, not have an explanation. It's just the market's going to do what the market wants to do. And same thing for euro, right? Euro is also inversely correlated to the DXY. DXY goes up, euro goes down. Yesterday, 8:30 AM, euro just dropped like a rock into the ocean. Yeah, as you can see right there, 8:30 AM. So yeah, yesterday was a bit of a rough day. This week so far has been a bit of a rough week because like we got 2 instances, 2 days straight in a row where You know, all of the conditions were lined up, and, you know, price just didn't end up playing out the way we wanted it to. But let's hopefully try to get it back today. But if I am being completely honest, today is looking like a little bit more of an ambiguous day in the sense that, you know, as far as on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 is like, oh my God, I have absolutely no idea what the market's doing, and number 10 being like, oh yes, I would bet my house on this trade. Today is definitely lying somewhere between a 6 and a 7. It's like, it's possible to get a good trade, but at the same time, it's not the clearest day. So Just keep that in mind as you head into today. But otherwise, I'm gonna see you guys later on Twitter for some live trading. And yeah, ciao ciao.
