In this video Roman Ceccardi walks viewers through his technical analysis of Bitcoin and a select forex pair (USD/CAD) for the trading day. He begins by examining Bitcoin’s weekly chart, highlighting a clear downtrend marked by lower lows and lower highs, a bullish order block, and a fair‑value gap that suggest further downside unless Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 high. He explains his “power of three” framework—selling above the weekly open to capture the true expansion—and notes that while the weekly bias is bearish, intraday conditions could still allow a short‑term long trade if a bullish order flow materialises during the New York session. He outlines specific entry zones, target levels (e.g., $78,200), and the importance of monitoring liquidity points and news events, especially the Thursday USD news. Ceccardi then shifts to forex, reviewing several pairs and focusing on USD/CAD, which shows a clean, trending structure without gaps and aligns with his trend‑trading system. He discusses his system’s reliance on volatility, average daily move calculations, and the need for trending markets, citing gold, oil, NASDAQ, and USD/CAD as recent winners. He stresses risk management, noting that a 50‑pip average daily range informs realistic intraday targets. Throughout, he balances a bearish outlook on Bitcoin with a cautious, opportunistic stance on short‑term trades, advises viewers to respect market structure over “hopium,” and concludes with typical channel calls‑to‑action. Key take‑aways: - Bitcoin’s weekly structure is bearish; a break above $100k could flip the bias. - Daily and hourly setups still allow a potential long if bullish order flow appears. - The “power of three” concept guides entry timing relative to weekly opens. - USD/CAD presents the strongest forex setup due to clean trend and lack of gaps. - Trade sizing and targets should respect average daily volatility. - News calendar and holiday effects (Memorial Day) influence trade aggressiveness.
Chapters
What's good guys, welcome back to another video. In this one we're going to get into the Bitcoin weekly setup and then I'm going to get into the only other pair where I potentially even see an opportunity. So yeah, without any further ado, let's dive right in. But before we do though, rate the setup. Like, let me know if this looks clean or like, yeah, just drop it down in the comment section below. Finally have a slightly more permanent setup which I'm super happy about. But otherwise, let's get straight into the charts. Now just to kick things off on the Bitcoin weekly chart, just understand that so far you are still looking pretty bearish in the sense that, okay, if you take a look at market structure, right? If we zoom out a little bit, you will see that this is a high, low, high, low, high, low. And so far, this low here has already been broken, right? So this is a lower low. And right now, this is potentially— well, not potentially, this is 100% a lower high. Because in order to confirm a lower high, you need 1, 2, 3, right? You need a swing high, at which point you've already created that swing high. Which means that for the near future, you should expect more downside. Why? Because that is just what downtrending markets tend to do. You don't magically see downtrending markets just reverse just like that. Before Or taking out some sort of higher timeframe level. Now I know that in terms of the higher timeframe, you're already in this bullish order block, but like so far, I think the liquidity point is still going to be taken until proven otherwise. Now the point at which this gets proven otherwise, right, the point at which this bearish setup no longer becomes valid is if you take a look at this high right here at close to $100,000. Until $100,000 gets broken, that will signify a higher high, at which point we can consider getting into some sort of higher low. So me personally, I'm not looking to buy at these levels because me personally, I would rather wait for a confirmed trend reversal. The truth is nobody knows where the low is going to come, and it's a fool's game to try to predict the low as well. Like for example, people that thought that, oh yeah, this is super strong support for Bitcoin, right? They ended up buying in and guess what? They're down another like 40%. And what if we get this wrong, right? What if price goes another 50% lower compared to where we are right now? I don't know about you, but personally, I would rather not hold onto positions that are, you know, that have the potential to put me, you know, 50% down. But with that out of the way, just understand that so far you're also in some sort of a higher timeframe fair value gap. So just keep in mind, this is not where you buy anything. This is where you potentially run into some resistance and the price goes down from there. Now, don't get me wrong though, I am not asking you to, you know, sell everything. At the end of the day, I am not trying to give you investment advice. I'm just sharing like what I would do. And in terms of what I would do, I'm looking to personally Get myself positioned into some sort of a short so that I can take advantage of this move. If you recall my videos from October and November of last year, basically for a stretch of about two months, you know I was someone being laughed at for posting you know so many bearish videos. Like if you look at the thumbnails, it was like oh yeah, you know sell here. Oh yeah, it's over for Bitcoin, whatever. But that was also the point where those were the two most profitable months of the year for me because prices were literally just free falling. Everyone that followed, like if you made money during that period following me, you know that I was one of the only people that called the. And not only that, but took advantage of the dump all the way down. And I'm not saying that I am a bear, but I am saying that I am a trader. And as traders, we trade what the market is trying to tell us, not hopium, not cope. We don't want to have any sort of like opinions that are, you know, just based on what we want to see in the markets rather than what the market is actually showing us. And for now, the market is showing us that things are bearish. And so I'm going to trade it accordingly. But that aside, let's get into the daily setup for Bitcoin. Now, so far, if you recall from last week, We said that okay, this CSD was confirmed, and so we were expecting a movement towards the downside. Now the beautiful thing here is that you have gotten another CSD basically at this point on the daily chart, which means that yeah, this is just getting more and more bearish as the days go on. And the other thing to keep in mind is the fact that you are in some sort of an hourly bearish PD array at the moment, which means that technically you should be looking to short from this area. Now not only that, but the weekly bias is pointing towards the downside as well. So overall, we're going to be looking for shorts this week. Now is that short going to come today? That is the part that I'm not super. Because just because you have a bearish weekly bias does not mean that you go short immediately. The reason why we look at these weekly biases is because of the power of three. Basically, if you are bearish on the previous weekly candle, or if you're just bearish on this candle straight up, imagine that this is the weekly open. You want to look for sells above the weekly open so that you can take advantage of a move of like the true expansion towards the downside. This is the mechanism that every single candle, no matter what timeframe you are in, tends to play out. So, for example, on this bearish candle here, we look for a sell above the weekly open, take advantage of the move, and then you know eventually. Eventually, you're going to close back up. Now, in this case here as well, this is the weekly open. Sell high, buy low, and then return back to close. So this week so far, this is the weekly open. So on this weekly candle here, the weekly open is at 77,000 sharp. So right here, right now we're above the weekly open. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if we go slightly higher above the weekly open because if you come into the daily chart, you will see that not only do you have a liquidity point here that you can sweep, so basically sweep this out, fill in this daily bearish fair value gap. Before the true expansion happens. Now, just because I say that that is a possible scenario doesn't mean it will 100% happen. I'm just saying that Mondays are historically not the best day to trade anyways. And heck, so far this Monday, based on the lower timeframes as well as the daily chart, it's pointing us towards the upside. And can we do that? Absolutely, right? We have a pretty solid thesis here because we have a solid liquidity chart. So yeah, overall the weekly kind of like, just not to confuse you, the overall weekly move we're going to be looking for is going to be a move towards the downside because that's what the weekly bias as well as the overall kind of like trend is pointing towards. But based on the daily, which is, you know, based on the intraday trade basis, which is the point where we kind of enter and exit the trade within the span of a couple of hours, it is still possible to go for a long today. In fact, the setup does point towards a long today. Over here on the 1-hour chart, you already have a, you know, bullish order flow. In terms of the daily chart, you already have a bullish daily bias. And right now you have a weak low over here, or a potential weak low. So right now the play, at least for today, is going to be a retracement back into this order block right here. You're going to look for some sort of a bullish CISD sometime during the New York session, which is going to be between 7 AM to 10 AM New York. And once that happens and you get that 5-minute CISD, just trade it to a CF side and your target is obviously going to be $78,200. Now I will go and take a look at news because this is going to be really important to determine kind of like what days we're going to choose to trade this week or what days we're going to choose to focus our attention on this week. And based on what I can see, Thursday is basically our only news day as far as USD is concerned. So we're probably going to be going less aggressive on Bitcoin and we're going to be focusing a lot more Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, especially tomorrow. And on Friday, we're going to take a look at GBP and Canadian. But one thing's for sure, the fact that we only have one day with red folder news tells me that we could potentially start the week off just setting up for a big Thursday move. And so we want to be a little bit more careful at the start of the week. In fact, case in point, once I start going through the other charts other than Bitcoin, you're going to see what I mean. So now that the Bitcoin setup is out of the way, obviously you don't really want to see an hourly candle close underneath this level right here, $27,000. If you get that, Then yeah, the long setup for today is going to be invalidated. But like, for those of you that are confused, by the way, just, you know, one last mention, the higher timeframe stuff will happen later on during the week, but it will not affect what we're doing here in terms of an intraday basis where we're looking to get in and out of a trade within a couple of hours. In an intraday perspective, we're looking for a long. Now, for an intra-week perspective, we'll continue to be patient and that short setup is going to eventually show itself because again, we want to sell high and then buy low. That's how it works. Now, next up, I will show you every single forex chart at the moment, and you'll see that you have a gap. And gaps are not usually the best places for you to trade. At the very least, when there is a gap present, especially on Mondays, price does, you know, it's hard to tell if price is going to make a move to recover that gap. Usually it does, but then oftentimes this also kind of goes against the daily bias. And like, there's just a lot of uncertainty when there is a gap, plus the fact that, you know, it is Monday. The same reason we don't trade, you know, the Asia session, because the Asia session tends to be the accumulation Range of the day. Monday tends to be the accumulation range of the week, where it's a little bit harder to tell exactly what direction it's going to go towards. So for that reason, we're going to chill as far as Mondays are concerned, except for USD Canadian. USD Canadian is one of the only major forex charts that does not have a gap. USD Canadian has been incredibly kind to me over over the last you know few weeks. Like I can I cannot recall having anything other than you know wins. I'm basically on like an 80% win rate on this at the moment, and like it is the haymaker. And one of the reasons is because if you take a look at the higher time frame, this is moving super cleanly. Like, take a look at this, man. This is the stuff of dreams that you want to see if you're a trader, especially if you are some sort of a momentum trader. Because the worst times, right, at least for me, right? Overall, I have a pretty decent win rate. I do make a decent amount of money, but I do— sorry, not I do. The system that I'm using tends to struggle when there is a lack of volatility in the markets. My system is primarily a trend trading system, which means that price kind of needs to be trending. And for that reason, some of the biggest, you know, kind of moneymakers over the last few weeks has consistently been gold. It's been oil, it's been NASDAQ, and it's been USD/CAD because these are trending as compared to a few other charts. But that aside, so far we have a bullish weekly bias. So far we also have a bullish daily bias. And so far we also have a pretty clear liquidity level that we can reach for. And so in terms of the 1-hour chart, let's look if we can see any sort of bullish order flow. And over here we definitely have. So retracement back into here will lead to— well, at least we will look for a pump. During the hours of in between 7 AM to 10 AM. And in terms of an intraday target that we can go for today, let's take a look. We don't really have a bunch of, you know, swing highs that we can take advantage of, but I do see that there are a couple over there. And let me just see if this kind of lines up with the overall volatility, because one thing that's really important to understand is average daily volatility. So right now on the daily chart, we started things off today at about 1. Well, 1.38 basically. And so this makes this target very reasonable. This target a little bit less so. Now here, let me explain what I mean. Go into the daily chart. Let me open up this one and let me just pull it up. So you can see that this kind of averages out the average daily move of every single day. And you can see here, so far we're sitting at about 50 pips, which means that the start to finish of an average daily candle is 50 pips. Now, considering the fact that we started today off here, 50 pips would be roughly here. So we don't want to try to aim for too much more than What the average daily volatility tells us. This is just you know setting targets based on you know data and you know average volatility, which is not a terrible thing, which is a pretty smart thing to do. So yeah, that will remain the intraday target for today. Now if I had to pick and choose, I'd say both are valid. It's pretty rare that I will say that being a Bitcoin is a valid trade, but the truth is like Bitcoin is valid and USD Canadian is probably the only forex chart that is showing a valid setup, at least based on this system right now. Now. Is there one that I would prioritize over the other? No. But is there one that I would prioritize over the other? Not really. But what I will say is that ideally, today should be a no-trade day. I think today is Memorial Day or something. Plus the fact that it's a Monday, plus the fact that you have gaps all over, plus the fact that you have no news. Like, not every day is a trading day. And I guess I just spent, you know, 12 minutes recording this video just to tell you that. But still, if you're having itchy fingers and not even itchy fingers, but like if the setup Does kind of show itself, then it's not going to be a horrible idea to you. But with that said, like this video if you watched until this point, and subscribe if you want to see more daily trade analyses just like this. Also, I posted quite a bit of alpha on my X. There's just some really valuable articles, and like there is still quite a lot of alpha coming. Feel free to check it out. But otherwise, I'll see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao!
