In this solo‑host video Roman Ceccardi provides a detailed market‑structure analysis of Bitcoin and outlines a concrete trade plan for the upcoming week. He begins by reviewing the macro backdrop, noting that the weekly low was swept but the price closed above it, indicating potential buying interest. He explains the “power of 3” concept – buying below the weekly open and selling above it when bullish – and ties it to the recent weekly candle. Moving to higher time‑frames, he stresses the importance of confirming bullish bias on the daily before looking at lower frames. On the 4‑hour chart he identifies a key resistance around $96,000 that must be broken for a stronger bullish case, and on the 1‑hour chart he highlights a “broken base” pattern with a liquidity sweep, Fibonacci golden‑pocket zones (0.618‑0.705) and a primary entry near $82,000. He discusses two possible scenarios: a short‑term bullish pump early in the week (driven by FOMC‑related volatility) versus a bearish continuation if price falls below $80,000, which would confirm a market‑maker sell model. The video concludes with risk‑management advice, a reminder to stay flexible with bias, and a call‑to‑action for a free email trading course and channel subscription.
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Welcome to Good Guys. Welcome back to another video on Bitcoin. Last week we were pretty spot on with the analysis, and now in this video we're going to get into the game plan for this week. We're going to talk a little bit about macro for Bitcoin. We're going to talk about the weekly close and also give you guys the game plan for today. So last Friday we talked about how even though price has shown a change in state of delivery to the downside, and even though we have a market maker sell model, the fact that these relatively equal highs are over here, 1, 2, 3, will act as a draw on liquidity. And ultimately, we looked for a scenario to break to the upside to invalidate this bearish change in state of delivery and to potentially even invalidate the market maker sell model. Now, are we completely clear out of the water now? Not exactly, but I would say that we have more bullish signs than anticipated, and it all begins on the weekly chart. Now, something we anticipated last week is that we wanted to see this weekly low get swept and for the price to not close underneath this weekly low and to actually give a bounce. This would signify that there are interested buyers and there is strength in this area. And so This will lead me to believe that hey, this week we can start looking for longs. I also did mention that last week was a very cautious week and was not the week that we look for longs right away. It would be much higher probability if we waited for the week to close and then we take the trades next week. Why? Because usually when we get a sweep of a key level plus a bullish candle close, this signifies strength. And so now we can much more reasonably anticipate a bullish week for this time around. And so with that weekly close, we are in a much better position now to start looking for longs. And the way that we're going to play this is simply. Simply put, one way. This is currently the weekly open, and when it comes to, well, candles in general, they always have an open, high, low, close. So the way that you should play this if you are bullish is that you want to look to buy below the open, to sell above the open before the close, right? This is known as a power of 3, and it's generally how most weekly or just any candlesticks tend to operate. If you're bullish on the next candle, then you look to buy below the open. If you are bearish on the next candle, then you look to sell above the open. It's as simple as that. So in this case, in this week, this was the candle open and then price dipped below. If you were bullish at the time, then you would be looking for buys anywhere under this wick. What you will end up with is that you will buy into the wick rather than, you know, buy into the top, if that makes sense. This concept, by the way, is taught inside my free email course. If you would like a free trading course sent directly to your email, feel free to click the link in the description box below. Otherwise, that's the weekly close, and now we move on to the daily. Now, In terms of the daily, just taking a look at the bigger picture because we always want to do higher time frame analysis first before we jump into the lower time frames. This block still remains the key block that we want to break. Like, until price overcomes this block, we cannot say fully yet that, hey, you know, without a shadow of a doubt, we are bullish. But again, we can start looking for some signs in terms of the lower time frame to start positioning ourselves early on before this move happens. Like, there are 2 ways to play it always. Like, You either position yourself early or you position yourself later after you have confirmation. Now, chances are most of you are not going to be as patient to, you know, wait for this thing to happen before taking any trades. And so we're going to play— no, I'm just going to discuss the— not to say risky, but like the earlier. Like, if you want to jump in now, how would you approach this? And now let's move on to the 4-hourly timeframe, and we can see that for the most part, market structure is still pretty much the same. In terms of like major structure, we can draw it from this, this, this. So until essentially this high is broken here again at $96,000, we cannot say that we are fully bullish yet, right? For all we know, this could just be some kind of retracement before further downside. And so we have to play this really cautiously if we want to jump in on the lower time frames. Again, the much higher probability play would just be to wait for this high to get taken out, for this change in state of delivery to occur. And then without a shadow of a doubt, we can say we're bullish. And so if you are looking for longs right now, then you have to play it cautious. So let's take a look right now at the 1-hourly chart to give you guys some entries. So time to remove this bearish CSD block, and now we can draw this bullish CSD block. So essentially, this entire block here will act as, you know, quote unquote support. Basically, we want to look for buys around this area. Now specifically, what I want to look for, the exact setup that I want to look for, has been seen last week. This is known as a broken base, so where you have a sell-side liquidity sweep followed by an immediate break in market structure. So the entry that you go for is usually when you retrace into the— if you draw Fib from the low to the high of the broken base, then you want to look for buys within the discount zone. And so this gives us like 3 potential levels to look at. In fact, I only have really like one level at the moment, which is $82,000. Why? Because Over here you have a swing low and you have a swing low over here. This is a swing low. This is a weak low. And while yes, this may be a strong low, this is the exact same scenario that we painted out last week where we didn't want to short here because we have relatively equal highs here that will act as a draw on liquidity. Meaning even if we wanted to short, it would be much better to wait for all of retail to be stopped out from these relatively equal highs first, right? Basically shorting at this point here when everyone's getting stopped out, and then that would be a much higher risk-reward play. Same thing here. We don't want to just go long here because you have relatively equal lows left behind right here. And so this also lines up with the 0.705 and the 0.618 golden pocket basically within the broken base within the CSD. And so if you were too long, then I think the play for today, potentially tomorrow, but maybe today depending on whether or not we have news or not, which speaking about news, let's take a look at some news real quick. So this is the situation for this week. We have Monday with Red Folder news and I think Friday, no, we don't have non-farm payrolls. So So the best trading days for Bitcoin throughout this week is going to be here on Monday, Wednesday, because that's when FOMC. And you have— oh no, actually this is going to be a pretty short week. So expect most of the volatility to actually come early on during the week. And the way that I'm going to be looking to play this is, again, you have the weekly open. You want to look for buys underneath the weekly open. So this lines up with that. Once all the liquidity has been swept, this will also line up with the fib of this broken base. And so expect something like this to happen if you were to get a second broken base, meaning If you sweep this liquidity here and you immediately break this high here at $83,800, this would mean that you have a double confirmation, which is 2 broken bases followed by each other. So you have your first one here, that's your first broken base. And then if you sweep this one again and you go up like that, that will be your second broken base. The double confirmation is an A+ setup. This is way higher probability than even the basic broken base. And this is something that you can take 9 out of 10 times, 10 out of 10 times, and expect a positive EV result. And so that's going to be the game plan for today. Potentially tomorrow, but given the fact that we have news later on today, will line up. And so the weekly profile that I would expect for this week would be like kind of like a, you know, early, early week pump before some kind of midweek reversal if we were still bearish. Or the second scenario would be that we just completely blow through this. Like if you sweep this liquidity, by the way, you do not see a bounce and you start just trading lower. And especially if you break below $80,000, this will be the second scenario. Like we don't always want to be just married to one bias. We want to consider all the possibilities. If we break below this low here, especially with bullet like a bearish candle close on a one hourly time frame, this would definitely confirm a market maker sell model. And in this case, this would be also a bearish change to delivery. In fact, it wouldn't be bearish because overall the trend is still bearish. We are bearish until otherwise proven. Right now, taking along here is definitely the more risky move. It's the counter trend move. If we were to just follow the trend, we can say that hey, the highs have already been swept. This is just a retracement move, and we're going to hit lower. And the condition for that to happen is actually if you were to break, like if you were to just sweep the liquidity and then just start getting rejected, right? The moment you see that happen, get ready to get into shorts because, well, price is just going to head lower from that point onwards. As much as I hate to admit it, because again, I do hold a lot of bags and I don't want to see Bitcoin go down. And yet there are times when you just have to separate yourself from, you know, what you would like to see and to see what the market is trying to tell you. And this is one of those cases. If you watch until this point so far, drop a like button. It truly helps me out a lot. And if you would like to see more analyses done from a smart money perspective on crypto, then make sure you subscribe to this channel and turn on the bell notification. Until then, I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye-bye.
