In this video Roman Ceccardi reviews his recent trading performance, noting a 90‑out‑of‑111 win record, and explains why yesterday’s bullish move didn’t produce a trade. He then assesses today’s Bitcoin market: despite a bullish daily bias, price is approaching a higher‑timeframe bearish resistance zone, making the day potentially low‑probability. On the 1‑hour chart he identifies an order block near the current price and outlines a trade plan for the 7‑10 AM New York window, recommending a stop below the low and a 2R target. He discusses three possible scenarios – bullish continuation, a breakout to the downside, or a market‑maker sell setup (heads‑and‑shoulders) – and specifies the trigger conditions for each (e.g., a 1‑hour candle closing below 116,200). Ceccardi stresses his “timeframe alignment” rule (daily, 1‑hour, and lower timeframes must all point up) and says he will only take the trade if alignment holds; otherwise he will stay out. He also comments on market quality, noting that today lacks news and is therefore choppy, advising traders to conserve capital and focus on higher‑quality days. The video ends with a promotion for a prop‑firm bootcamp, a reminder of his win rate, and a call to like, subscribe, and watch future weekday updates.
Chapters
What's good, guys? Yesterday's trade ended up not getting filled. However, we did get the correct direction. So yeah, yesterday was just a bit of a no trade. So we are still currently on 90 wins out of the last 111 videos. But outside of that, during the afternoon session, you did get a retracement into the fair value gap before price continued to pump. Like price basically just like we read the direction correct, but like price just did not give us any sort of retracement and just continued like going straight up. So nothing we can do about that. It's basically just no trade. So that brings me on to today. And today is a little bit of an interesting situation because yesterday's daily bias closed really bullish. However, in terms of the daily chart at the moment, we are now coming into this kind of like bearish resistance zone. And the thing you need to keep in mind is that even though yesterday's bearish— sorry, yesterday's candle closed bullish and all the daily bias today is actually bullish, we have to play this a little bit safe in the sense that It's Friday, it's the end of the week, and we are hitting some kind of higher timeframe resistance, which means that price could very well just retrace at any given moment. And that's something you need to be careful of. So in terms of the 1-hourly chart though, we are coming right into some kind of 1-hourly order block, which means that at the moment that I'm recording this, it's very close to 5 AM New York. Around the hours of like 7 AM to 10 AM New York, if you start seeing price just bounce from here, you get 5-minute changes to delivery. And price just seems to start heading up, then you can totally take a trade from that point onwards. Place your stop underneath this low and just target for 2R. This is a very similar trade that I just took on the euro. Actually, the chart that I was trading at was the euro futures because I was trading this from a prop firm. Anyways, just to show you the executions real quick. And speaking about prop firms, actually, if you would like my help to get from where you are right now to funded within the next 90 days, basically trading full-time within the next 90 days, feel free to click the first link in the description box below to book a call for bootcamp. This is where we help traders like you go from like inconsistent to just consistently profitable. But anyways, it's a setup that's very similar to what I took today in the sense that, you know, you got that manipulation right into some kind of higher timeframe fair value gap/order lock, and then price, you know, just gave that kind of reaction. And ideally you want to see like, again, price is currently dumping at the moment, which is why I said Like between the hours of like 7 to 10 AM, that is what you want to ideally look for. Now just keep in mind that even though this could potentially be an AMD setup, again, we come to this conclusion from the daily bias being bullish. And even though this is a possibility, we don't just want to just jump straight into this conclusion because there is also a likelihood that this ends up being a breakout and, you know, price just continues later on down the line and it starts breaking lower. Instead of, you know, staying high. So just keep in mind that that is a very likely scenario. And also, you just had one, like, basically 1, 2, and 3 impulses up into some kind of higher timeframe key level, which also means that this could potentially, right, just potentially be a market maker sell model. And the trigger for this is going to be a 1-hourly candle close basically underneath this bullish order block. If that happens, then you will potentially flip the support into potential resistance, and then price is going to continue heading lower. Now, am I going to be taking this trade though? That is another question, because for those of you who follow this channel, just understand that one of the core tenets within my system, like, I only take a trade when I have timeframe alignment, basically. And timeframe alignment is when all 3 timeframes are aligned in the same direction, in the sense that I need the daily chart to be pointing up, which at the moment it is. The 1-hourly chart is also pointing up. But let's say this happens, and then the hourly chart starts pointing down, but the daily is still pointing up. Which means I am now getting timeframe misalignment. And so I'm not going to be personally taking this trade, but in the event that this happens, just understand that that would be invalidation of this bullish idea and the price is potentially going to head lower instead. Now, if that doesn't happen though, we still again give the benefit of the doubt to this order block right here, and it should ideally still be bouncing from this level until otherwise proven. And so again, the trigger that you want to look for is just some kind of willingness in price to, you know, head towards the upside. But just again, if I could give you like one bit of advice, you know how they say, like a popular saying in trading like, oh, you know, not every day is a good trading day, or like, not every week is a good trading week. And that is in fact true, because if you, if you take into account what type of trading conditions we've had this week, you will very immediately see that the highest, like, leverage moves, or like the moves that were just happening the most cleanly, happened on Tuesday and they happened on Thursday, because those were the 2 news days that we had. Today we have no news, and the price action is kind of reflecting that in the sense that, you know, it's a little bit more choppy. Not to say that there is no trade today, it's just in terms of the spectrum of like, okay, this is a really high-quality trading day and this is a really low-quality trading day, you know, it's— we're definitely leaning more towards a low-quality trading day than a high-quality one. And so if you're able to just conserve your ammunition and, you know, save your— not only your physical capital, physical capital meaning financial capital, but also your mental capital, right? Just your willpower and all this stuff. If you can save it for days where you have news and the move looks a lot more clear. Where in this sense, when I say clear, it means that at the very least your timeframes are aligned. At the very least, you're not getting bullishness heading right into some kind of higher timeframe bearish PD array or like some kind of higher timeframe resistance. Basically, yeah, you know, there is no clear-cut direction at the moment. So we can only— like, I can only paint out scenarios for you basically. Now, if I had to have my money somewhere, again, it's tough to say because like I will be trading around the hours of like 7 to 10. And specifically what I'm going to look for is either you start heading towards the upside, in which case I'm going to take a long, and if it starts heading towards the downside, I am just straight up not going to trade. So hard to say what my call is today. Again, this is just a little bit uncertain of a day. Also, you potentially have a heads and shoulders forming at the moment. So yeah, just see how the market reacts. Again, the trigger for this is going to be a 1-hourly candle close underneath 116,200. If you do happen to get that, then Yeah, that's going to be pretty straightforward. You're just going to have a head and shoulders pattern, and depending on like if your system doesn't require timeframe alignment, then yeah, just feel free to trade that lower. But otherwise, yeah, it's going to be pretty straightforward. Again, because of the low probability day, or like the low probability nature of today, just make sure you take a profit at 2R. Don't aim for too big of a move. The days where you could have aimed for big moves were like, you know, Tuesday, Thursday. Like this was a pretty, by all measures, right? This was a pretty decent move. And unfortunately, today is not one of those days. And It's normal. It's getting close to the weekend. Perfectly normal. But anyways, if you've found this video helpful, drop a like, subscribe if you would like to see more. I'm going to be creating one of these videos every single weekday, just giving you the rundown on what's going to happen and the best trade for the day. Now, over the last 111 videos, we have been right on about 90 of the calls. And so yeah, we tend to be right more often than we're wrong. But outside of that, have a great weekend, guys, and I'll see you in the next video. Bye-bye.
