In this video Roman Ceccardi provides a detailed technical analysis of Bitcoin, reviewing weekly, daily, hourly, and 5‑minute charts to assess the current market bias. He references his performance record (58 successful analyses out of 71 tracked since February) and explains why recent bearish calls are excluded from his score. The weekly and daily charts closed bullish, reinforcing a bullish bias that is supported by a filled bullish order block and a bullish fair‑value gap. On the 1‑hour chart he identifies additional fair‑value gaps and order blocks, and notes a clear change of state of delivery indicating bullish market structure. He then drills down to the 5‑minute chart, discussing session dynamics (Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York continuation) and outlines possible entry scenarios: a long trade if price retraces into identified zones and shows bullish order flow, or a short trade if price breaks below key order blocks, targeting the February gap. He also mentions a separate video where he analyzed 20 charts and listed 5‑6 top‑coin picks for the week. Throughout, he emphasizes risk‑aware, aggressive positioning when market conditions align across timeframes, while providing contingency plans for opposite moves.
Chapters
What's up everyone, welcome back to another video. Last week we talked about how— such a funny thing how this happens— last week I gave you guys a bearish scenario where after you get a change in state of delivery on the 5-minute, you can look to trade towards the downside towards this target right here. Ultimately price did go way further than that, but it's so funny that right after I ended the video it happened within the next like 30 minutes. But last Friday I also did mention that I would not count whatever calls that I made towards the official call count. Because I just wasn't certain as to what was going to happen. There were signs leaning towards the downside and there were signs leaning towards the upside. I gave conditions for both. The downside one happened, and I myself said that I would sit out for last Friday. So overall, we are still sitting at 58 out of 71 of total analyses since publicly starting to track this since February. So not going to count this towards the score count. And today we're just going to give you an update, show you guys what's up. And how to take advantage of any moves for this week. For those of you that are new, just know that you're probably in the right place because we tend to be right more often than we're wrong. And so removing everything, taking a look at a weekly chart, last week closed pretty bullish. That's a good sign, which means now we have reason to go bullish again. Yesterday's daily bias closed bullish as well, so we have reason to believe that price is going to go bullish. This is coming at a time after we have filled in this bullish order block right here. And potentially this bullish fair value gap right here, which means that today we have a pretty clear bias towards the upside. And now let's move into the 1-hourly chart, see if there are any, you know, areas of interest that may support our theory. And right away we can see that we have this fair value gap down here, which means that if we do retrace back here, that will give us a reason to trade it higher. Alternatively, we also have a couple of bullish order blocks that have just been filled. We have 3 areas of interest basically where we can look for price to, you know, come either sweep out liquidity or whatever, but ultimately the bias is towards the upside. At least this is what we can see on the 1-hourly chart. Another beautiful thing about the 1-hourly chart is also the fact that we have undeniable change in state of delivery right here, which means that at this point, at this current point, price action in terms of market structure and order flow is undeniably bullish. So this is much higher of a probability market condition compared to just last week, where, for example, if you guys remember Like the reason why I'm mentioning this, by the way, is because this is a really important lesson as to avoiding, you know, just subpar market conditions. For example, trying to trade in any— like last week was kind of like a weaker week for weaker week. Well, a bit of a tongue twister. It was a bit of a weaker week for, you know, our analyses. And we ultimately managed to read some directions right, but the magnitude of the move wasn't very large in the sense that, you know, we got direction right. But then let's say if we targeted this one, it stopped just shy of the target. And that was the story of last week where, you know, we still managed to catch some trades here and there, but the problem is that the market conditions were not favorable. And we also made the call to just, you know, take lower risk and play it safe last week. But this week's a little bit different. You can see that the market structure, order flow, everything's kind of lining up. And so when these weeks come around, when these days come around, the lesson here is that we are a bit more aggressive when it comes to this. And so that leads us on to the lower timeframe. So let's see if we can find any potential areas of entry. So we've already marked out 1, 2, 3. Today is going to be pretty straightforward. If you do get into a case, you're just going to trade it towards the upside. That is the official call from my side. The only thing that could be a cause for concern, right, and this is not even a huge cause for concern because this is all happening on a 5-minute chart. In terms of the 1-hourly, it's aligned. Daily, it's aligned. Weekly, it's aligned. Everything is pointing towards the upside. So this is merely just, you know, picking at the details and seeing where exactly where we want to go in. So on the 5-minute, what we can see is that we have broken above the Asia high. Ideally, if we are bullish on the day, we want to see London break below the Asia low because Usually Asia tends to be a session of accumulation. London tends to be a session of manipulation, which means New York tends to be a session of distribution. Either that or continuation, depending on how you want to read it. So given that, like, London tends to mean manipulation, it means that this up move right here taking out the Asia high could be a fake move. Basically, the real move for today is actually going towards the downside, which again would not be surprising because if we paint it out on the 1-hourly chart, we have right here, right here, and right here. And by the way, I have a feeling the camera is kind of like like lagging out every now and then. If that's what you're seeing in terms of the video on the final video, just understand that it's not your fault. It's probably my camera. A retrace back into this area here would not be surprising. And so today could also be a day where we just retrace. Now it highly depends on what price action does. I can give you guys the game plan, but how price action decides to shape up in terms of order flow on the 5-minute chart is going to determine how you're going to play this. For example, once you retrace into here and if price starts showing a willingness to go up, then with a change in state of delivery or with bullish order flow specifically on the 5-minute, then yeah, you know, just trade higher, just momentum trade basically. Another thing that I haven't mentioned yet is that yes, while London could be a session of manipulation, there is a different type of setup. And basically these are the only 2 different types of session profiles that play out, which is Asia accumulation, London breaks out, retests, and then New York continuation. So this is the second scenario that could happen. And if it happens, it's going to happen either at this order block here or this order block here. And so all you want to look for is for price to show bullish order flow on the 5-minute chart, bullish change state delivery, whatever, and you are good to go for a New York continuation. Now, just to give you a little contingency plan, because ideally we want to be buying at the Asia lows, if you start getting like— basically, if you start breaking below these order blocks, coming up to retest it, and then break below again, then your setup today is going to be to short at these areas, basically turning these bullish support areas into flipping them into resistance. That will be your setup, and your target is going to be back down to this February gap right here at the Asia lows. Both are possible because right now, in terms of the 5-minute chart, you have relatively equal lows, which means a draw on liquidity or like a magnet for liquidity, right? A lot of people are setting their stop losses here. I cannot tell you which one's more likely at the moment. Everything on the higher timeframe is pointing towards the upside, so we look for reasons to go long, and that will be a pretty quick take for today. Now, for those of you who weren't aware, yesterday I posted a video where I analyzed 20 charts, and I gave you guys like a list of 5 to 6 of the best coins to trade for this week, ones that are most likely to give you a high probability setup for this week. Some of them are already playing out as we speak. You are not too late yet. Feel free to click this video if you want to get kind of like my weekly outlook and like my top picks for this week. But otherwise, see you in the next one. Bye-bye.
