In this video Roman Ceccardi analyses Bitcoin’s current market structure, arguing that the asset is topping out and entering a bearish phase. He reviews recent price action, highlighting a heads‑and‑shoulders pattern, change‑of‑state delivery, and several fair‑value gaps (FVGs) on daily and lower timeframes. Ceccardi explains how swing traders can manage risk by placing stops below recent lows and expects a potential new all‑time high within a month if bullish retracements occur. For intraday traders, he outlines a short‑biased system that requires alignment across daily, 1‑hour, and 5‑minute charts, emphasizing the importance of timing (kill zones) and avoiding premature entries. He provides a concrete trade‑for‑the‑day: enter on a retracement into a bearish order block, set a stop above the block, target a 2R reward‑to‑risk, and invalidate the trade if the 1‑hour candle closes above 107,700. Throughout, he stresses discipline, patience, and decision‑quality over trade quantity, cites an 80% win‑rate claim (75/90 successful analyses), and promotes his paid bootcamp for learning the system.
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What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Bitcoin at the moment is showing some very concerning signs because it does look like things have started topping out. Ignoring just this kind of like heads and shoulders pattern, you have also gotten some kind of change in state of delivery. And in this video, I'm going to break down exactly how to take advantage of this, whether or not if you should take profits if you're swing trading or doing something more long-term, and also give you guys the trade for the day. Before we get into it though, I am not quite sure what to think about yesterday because ultimately we did predict the dump You know, to perfection. Now the CSD actually happened outside of 10 AM, and essentially we only got the lower timeframe, you know, kind of confirmations at 10:30 AM, which is outside of the trading window that I kind of gave. Although I still did mention it on— then I believe that I mentioned it only on Discord. I didn't mention it on Twitter. But anyways, because we had relatively equal lows, like just to give you an idea, that was the low right there, and that is the other low. This tends to act as kind of like a magnet for liquidity, and so ultimately that Even though we got the order flow confirmation, the trade ended up getting stopped out before price eventually started heading higher, and then it still went lower anyways. This was also the reason why I mentioned that, you know, no more than half risk because there are relatively equal lows. And so yeah, guys, you let me know what I should consider that. I mean, trade itself was definitely a loss, but I'm sort of grading myself in terms of analyses. We're currently 75 out of 89 so far, but you guys let me know if you want to Call it a win. I'm inclined to call it a loss, but at the same time, it also kind of happened outside of the time window that I was predicting. But yeah, for now, we're going to call it a loss. So that makes it 75 out of 90. But you guys let me know in the comment section below. But anyways, in today's video, we're going to continue to maintain our 80% win rate. And kicking things off on the daily chart, there are a couple of important things to note. First of all, yesterday's candle ended up closing bearish, and so today's candle should be, you know, like today's daily bias is going to be bearish. But secondly, there are also a couple of fair value gaps that have formed. Now, I'm going to answer the question about swing trading First, because this is going to be the easiest to get over with. First thing you need to understand is that we are currently still in bullish order flow. Like recently, with this candle close above you know this candle right here, this has already changed the state of delivery. And if you guys remember what I talked about when it came to swing trading, you wanted to look for a retracement back into you know either this fair value gap, either this CSD, or even this fair value gap right here. Now we have gotten this multiple times in the past where you get this fair value gap and you filled it not once, not twice, but you filled it three times before you started heading up. Even Like looking before this, you had a couple of fair value gaps. So if you take a look here, that's a fair value gap right there. That's the second one. And ultimately price ended up retracing back into the second one before, you know, ending up going higher. And so am I saying that you are going to come all the way here? Well, I'm saying that it's going to be a possibility. But either way, taking a look just at the major trend, yes, you are still bullish. And if you're swing trading, just put your stops underneath this low right here and you're going to be all good. Chances are you are going to get a new Bitcoin all-time high sometime within the next month. And so now we get into more of the intraday trading. And so again, the daily bias is bearish because the daily candle closed bearish. And currently you have filled in a bullish fair value gap. So there is a potential that price could head up from this point onwards, but there is also the potential for price to start heading lower. Why? Well, daily bias is bearish. And also we have gotten a bearish change in state of delivery right there. And so currently this becomes the bearish order block that we have to pay attention to on the 1-hourly chart. Unless this bearish order block is traded above, I don't really want to be looking for longs. And by the way, This is probably a very common issue that beginners tend to run into. Okay, the 1-hourly is bearish, the daily is also bearish, but then you have, you know, kind of like a daily support level. So which one do you prioritize? Well, in cases like this, I always say the same thing. Just go back to your system. When you are feeling confused, you do not have to trust yourself to make the right decision. Just make the decision that you would take when you are trading your system. And in my case, the answer is going to be very simple. I trade my system when I have daily bias pointing down, the 1-hourly pointing down, as well as the 5-minute pointing down. Essentially, I look for timeframe alignment. As long as either one of these timeframes are out of alignment, then I wait until they go into alignment before I start taking a long. So yes, while it may pump today, and I'm going to give you the conditions for that, I am not personally going to look for a long, at least until tomorrow. Well, tomorrow's Saturday, so at least until next Monday. And the reason for that is because I'm just following my system here. And that's a lesson that you can take away, just being disciplined and patient and waiting for the right conditions to form before doing anything. But outside of that, let's break down what's happening on the 1-hourly chart. First of all, now you are fully in bearish order flow. The moment you take out this low right here, you are even more confirmed that you are in bearish order flow. And we have already established the fact that there is a lower retracement level that Bitcoin could reach for. So I wouldn't be surprised if you start dumping from this point onwards. And now let's hop into the lower time frames to see if there is, you know, anything that we can gather. Firstly, we can see that the Asia high has been swept out during the London open. For those of you who do not know what this means, Asia usually tends to be accumulation, London tends to be manipulation, and New York tends to be distribution. Now this is just a rule of thumb. Sometimes you can get an accumulation, breakout, and then continuation. So to the upside, it would look something like this. And sometimes it is your classic AMD. The job of us traders is to kind of read and react. What I'm trying to do in these videos is just to read what the market is doing and then give you guys an accurate kind of read. And judging from the results that we've gotten so far, I would say I'm pretty accurate on this. After all, proof is in the pudding. Ever since, you know, the videos on February, I've made about 89 videos— sorry, 90 videos— and we're right about 75 out of 90 times. Which puts our win rate above 80%. By the way, if you'd like to learn this for yourself, feel free to click the first link in the description box below and sign up to bootcamp. While I'm not going to promise you that you are also going to get an 80% win rate, what I can say is that this is going to be a system that helps make you consistent as a trader. If that sounds interesting, click the link. If not, don't worry about it. Back to the video. So the reason why I bring up the topic of AMD is because usually if your daily bias is towards the downside, ideally you want to look for some kind of manipulation during the London session above the Asia high. This would kind of mark like the high of the day, and then everything else from that point is just going to fall. And this is exactly what we got. This is, by the way, the same condition that we looked for on a bullish day. On this day, because the previous day closed bullish, we were bullish on this day. And this was a 1-hourly fair value gap. In fact, at the moment, this is a daily fair value gap as well. And during the London open kill zone, you swept underneath the Asia low, and then boom, the rest of the day you just started going up. So this would be the exact kind of, well, just inverse kind of setup that we would be looking at. Essentially, this is a 1-hourly resistance. You sweep the Asia high during the London, and right now the condition for the trade is going to be pretty straightforward. Essentially, if you take a look purely from the 15-minute or even the 5-minute chart, this is already ripe for an entry. But given the fact that it's almost 5:00 AM right now and timing matters when it comes to trading, we want to ideally be taking a position sometime closer to 7:00 AM or even anywhere between 8:30 Or 9:30. And the way that we can further kind of narrow this down is to take a look at news. Today at 8:30 AM, you're going to have USD news. And so we're going to try to position ourselves closer to, you know, 7 AM or even 8:30 AM. But either way, the setup is going to be pretty clear. Essentially, once you get a retrace back into, you know, let's say this bearish order block right here, that's going to be your entry trigger. Placing an entry there, placing a stop above, and then just targeting for 2R. Now, the reason why you go for 2R is that for most beginners, in fact, for most people, 2R is a really great target to hit because it helps you win very consistently. The problem that you face when you go way too far in terms of your target is that you're not going to win as often. And for a beginner who, you know, may not necessarily have a lot of data on whether or not their system works over the long term, this is not a sustainable trading method because once you go through a lot of losses, you're gonna, you know, start introducing a lot of doubt into yourself. You're gonna feel bad. When you feel bad, Most people nowadays are very weak-willed, and so, you know, they just quit. So if you have been in trading for a while and you still haven't quit, I would just like to say that good job, keep it up, because the only people that really fail from trading are the ones that give up after not seeing results for like, I don't know, after working on this for a couple months. Like, let's be real, you're not going to get results from anything if you're only willing to stick with it for, you know, a couple of months. So essentially, the setup for today is going to be pretty straightforward. At the moment, we already got that manipulation move. Now you may get a secondary kind of manipulation above the previous daily high. Which is right there. It's not even actually $108,000, but basically you have like relatively equal highs over there. Now chances are, I do think that we go down from here, but if you get a third kind of like manipulation move, just understand that this would be kind of like a 3 drives pattern. Um, not very obvious on the 5-minute, but you'll see it on 15-minute chart where that's kind of like a high, second high, third high, and then 3 drives pattern. You will leave behind some kind of relatively equal lows over there and price is going to start heading lower. Now Basically, the setup for today is pretty simple. Like accumulation, you already got the manipulation right now. You just need a strong move down and then just trade any of the retracements lower. In terms of targets for today, what you can look for is again, this fair value gap should pretty much be disregarded. So like the ultimate target for this will be 104,600. Although I highly doubt that that is going to get hit during an intraday basis. So for today, yeah, just target 2R really. Like at most you will go with 104,600 if you do it. If price does it, great. If not, yeah, just take a 2R and get out of the markets. And expect volatility to come around 8:30 AM or the hour before and the hour after. Now let's kind of talk about the invalidation scenario, because so far you have filled in a daily fair value gap. This is technically a strong low from the 1-hourly time frame, so there is a chance where today you could just pump like this instead. And the condition for this to happen is that you need a 1-hourly candle close above 107,700. That would be my recommendation before you remotely even start thinking about jumping into anything. The reason for this is because until this happens, the 1-hourly order flow is actually still bearish. And as traders, we want to jump in only when we get, you know, full confirmation. There is a mistake that a lot of people tend to make, which is diving in too early, basically. Now, the biggest mistake that I see that really screws up beginners is that they always enter with premature confirmations, meaning there is something that they would like to see. The moment they get, you know, even just one sign that that is happening, boom, they just jump in. But in reality, like, you don't want to be taking many subpar trades. In fact, you don't want to be taking any subpar trades at all if possible, because like yesterday's example is a great kind of illustration of what happens when you take trades without ticking off every condition within your system. One of the core tenets of my system, and something that you will learn in bootcamp as well if you do join, is that you want to be taking trades between, you know, all your entries ideally should be coming within the kill zone. And yesterday, what we were looking for ended up happening outside the kill zone, and that's why we got manipulated. And we ended up getting stopped out. Trading is not just about, you know, price action. It's not just about technical analysis. Trading, especially when you're trading smart money, is also about understanding the behavior of price at certain timings. When certain— like, yes, sure. And I think this is the missing puzzle too for a lot of you, which is pairing your understanding of technical analysis with timing. Certain order blocks, like for example, an order block that forms at like 5:00 PM and an order block that forms at 9:00 AM is vastly different in terms of their probability. And they are both fundamentally and technically the same, except for the fact that they happen At different times, and yesterday was an example of you know taking a trade without taking timing into account, and that's why I got stopped out. It happens; doesn't happen often anymore, but it happens. But yeah, going back into this one, ideally you want to have a one-hourly candle close above 107,700. Until that happens, you're still in bearish order flow, and entering any time before that, yeah sure, you might be able to catch quote unquote the bottom and just see Bitcoin pump from that point onwards. But there is also a much more higher likelihood that you will just get stopped out because price is actually still bearish. And so we wait for. You know, all the bullish confirmations before we start going bullish. And even at that point, let's say you do get that kind of close. Ideally, you're not even taking a trade today because once this happens, it's probably going to be like the kill zone is probably going to be over. It's going to be like New York afternoon, and we're about to head into Saturday, which is a very low probability day and a very low volatility day. And so yeah, my advice today: focus on the shorts. However that kind of shows up, then that's going to be the direction for today. If Price starts to reverse, then that opportunity will be saved for next Monday or even next Tuesday, where the conditions are going to be much more favorable for us taking a high-quality trade. And I'll leave you guys off with this: traders are paid based on the quality of the decisions that they make, not the quantity. So focus on decision quality. If you can do that time and time again over the long term, then you are going to win as a trader. And if you enjoy these analyses from the smart money perspective on crypto, then feel free to subscribe and turn on the bell notification because I'll be making a video just like this every single weekday. Until then. Have a great weekend, guys. See you in the next one. Bye-bye.
