Bitcoin: They are Manipulating You

What's up everyone, welcome back to another weekly market update. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin, we're going to talk about what's going on with BlackRock, we're going to look into the DXY and the stock market as well as Bitcoin dominance to give you a better idea on what to expect from the crypto markets in the near future. And then we're gonna get into a few coins that I think are pretty interesting and also a few coins that were suggested to me from you guys on Twitter. So basically every week before I film this market update video, I will ask you guys from Twitter what coin you would like to see and if you want me to talk about your coin in the next market update. Just go ahead and follow me on Twitter right now at underscore the art of crypto and stay tuned. Anyways, let's kick things off with Bitcoin. So I know you guys might be tired of hearing this at this point because every week I seem to come on and I tell you, hey, Bitcoin's, you know, this is finally going to be the move that takes Bitcoin higher. And yet every week something, either the SEC, either Robinhood announcing that Solana, Cardano, and all that stuff are securities, which caused them to tank like hell. Like whatever it is, there just seems to be some kind of wrench into our plans. And again, I've said many, many times over the last month, probably. At the moment, there is no reason to believe that this thing is just absolutely going to tank lower. Now, I know I have said before that if you do get a daily candle close beneath this level here, that would be invalidation. And yet every single time the market comes down here, just seems to take liquidity and then bounce the other way very, very strongly. And you can see that this is especially true during this move here. You just simply went down to take out all the liquidity and then look at this. Strong candle body closes to the upside. These are bullish engulfing candles to the upside, which indicates market makers' involvement in moving the market higher. Now, the reason why this pump is a little bit different from the rest of the pumps is because right now we don't just have— like, for example, this last pump here, that was just a bullish engulfing candle, and I told you guys like, okay, this is now a bullish order block and that you can buy anywhere within this zone, and yet we got stopped out. But the thing that makes this pump different from previous pumps in the last 3 to 4 weeks is the fact that you have a change of character over here. So if we come back to this swing high here, the reason why this is called the swing high is because it is the highest point amongst 3 candles. Now recently you have just gotten a candle body close above this previous swing high, which indicates a change of character. Now if you break here, right there, that would be a break of structure. I'm not going to get into the difference between change of character and break of structure right now. If you want to get access to that, I'm actually releasing a free course this week and that will go into all the specifics of my trading strategy. And yes, you heard that right, I will teaching you a part of my trading strategy in that free course. Now I know what you're thinking, most free courses suck absolute balls. This is not going to be one of them. This will actually change the way you trade. If you want to get access to it, sign up to the waitlist using the link in the description box below. And now let's get back to the video. So this is change of character, which is step 1 in indicating that the market makers, you know, want to bring the markets higher. So right now we already have the change of character confirmed, and now all we have to do is identify a potential entry point where we can get into the markets before it takes off. And you do that by drawing a Fib from swing low to swing high, and also the fact that you have a bullish order block confirmed over here. Now look at where the Fib lines up. The Fib, the 618, just happens to be the middle of this daily bullish order block. So let's zoom in to the 4-hourly chart to see if we can get a better picture of what's going on on the lower time frame. And yes indeed, we can narrow down the daily order block into this 4-hourly order block here. And check it out, this order block just happens to line up with the 0.618. So I will be looking for an entry anywhere between 25,600 to 25,400. Now, this is going to be the ideal range to enter. Now, sometimes the market seems to just pump or dump without giving you a chance to retrace and get an entry. So what do you do there? Well, now just remember the concept that I talked about over the last few videos. And in fact, if you have been watching my channel for a while, you should understand this. Whenever the markets need to go higher, right? Think of the markets as a Ferrari. In order for this Ferrari to go up or down or anywhere at all, you need fuel. where do you get fuel? If you want to go up, then you get fuel from down below. At the moment, that is the point of liquidity, or rather fuel, that I'm looking at over there. And in fact, this fair value gap would provide a pretty good entry. Whenever you take out sell-side liquidity and the market bounces, that is pure indication that the market makers want the markets to go higher. So look out for that if you don't get the ideal entry. Now, this is just what I would do. This is just my opinion. And again, I know I have been saying this for many, many, many weeks now, but just based on looking at the price action, I I don't see a reason why you wouldn't go up, especially to take out this range high here, $27,270, right around this week essentially. So that is going to be the target for this week and potentially even higher next week at about $29,500. But you get the idea. The moment doesn't give me a reason to be bearish yet, so just look out for that. And just another thing to confirm the theory behind Bitcoin is the fact that the DXY is currently heading lower. Now, for those of you who don't know, whenever the DXY goes up, Bitcoin tends to go down. Whenever the DXY goes down, Bitcoin goes up. The reason for that is simple. The DXY is called the US dollar index, and this is basically denoting the strength of the US dollar. And what is Bitcoin valued against? Bitcoin is valued against the US dollar. It makes sense that if the USD goes up, Bitcoin goes down. USD go down, Bitcoin goes up. It's as simple as that. Now there are a lot more specifics as to why this dynamic like even exists. I'm not going to get into that in this video, but that is just the simple gist that you need to know. And at the moment, the DXY is in a pretty strong downtrend with clear market structure looking to make new lows around the 0.618 to 0.705 level. Now, how do I get that level? Well, I come down here and draw a fib from the swing low to the swing high of this macro move. Like, if you've watched any of my previous videos before, then you know what this is. This is called a discount zone. Now, what is a discount zone? Essentially, if I were to sell you an iPhone right now for $2,000, you probably wouldn't take it because that is in a premium. Like, I'm selling to you at a premium, which is essentially anything that is above the 0.5. That is known as a premium. Now, anything below The 0.5 is known as a discount. It would be like me selling you an iPhone for $500. You would probably take it because it's a good fair value. So this premium discount is what the market makers look at, especially the big money, the smart money, and the institutions. That is what they look at in order to get into the large positions. So essentially, at the moment, the DXY seems to be heading down to the 618 and the 705, and we have literally been talking about the DXY coming to this point ever since, uh, I would like to say Almost a year now. Like we all predicted the DXY top back then, and now I'm telling you guys that it's going to come back to the 618. It's going to come back to the 705 because that's just the way markets work. So as the DXY heads lower, that is going to provide the catalyst that Bitcoin needs to go even higher. Now on the opposite side of the coin, you also have the S&P 500. Now the S&P 500 is highly, highly correlated to Bitcoin, and it is also highly, highly correlated to the DXY because the DXY is basically. Let's put it this way. As the US dollar is going up in value, people are going to want to move their assets into USD because that's where they can get a bigger return. And I know that doesn't make sense to you because we are all retail investors and we're probably not looking to invest into the US dollar. But for institutional investors looking to get just that 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% return every single year, this USD being strong is actually a very solid investment. Now, what happens when all the big money puts their money into the USD? Well, the stock market goes down. This is why Bitcoin and the stock market is inversely correlated to the DXY. So At the moment, if the DXY does go lower to the target that I have set, which is at the moment between 99 points and 97.8 points, then you can expect the DXY to just either go back to the previous high or just make new highs. So a 5,000-point S&P 500 is highly likely. If that happens, Bitcoin's definitely going to $35K. But for now, let's not think too far ahead. And until this point is hit, I do believe that the target for the S&P 500 is around the 4,545 points and around 4,600 points. Now, until that target is hit, I do believe that the S&P is going to continue strongly going to the upside, and that is a catalyst for Bitcoin to go strongly to the upside as well, especially once the S&P like just ranges a little bit up here. That's going to allow the liquidity flow from the stock market into the crypto markets, and you know, that's generally how money flow in the market work. And also, some of you pattern traders might be looking at this and thinking like, oh, that looks like a very, very nice rounded bottom, and you would be right. This is generally a bullish, bullish structure. For now, I have my target set around $4,545 and $4,600. When the S&P 500 hits that point, then we can do another reevaluation of Bitcoin. But at the moment, Still bullish, and I hope I have given you the reasons why. Now, before we get into the altcoins and Ethereum and a few coins that I'm going to talk about, for example Solana, let's talk about the Bitcoin dominance because this is a huge, huge, huge chart that you need to look at before you even start looking at altcoins. Because when Bitcoin dominance is high, it means that Bitcoin, like this 49% here, means that Bitcoin currently makes up almost 50% of the entire crypto market cap alone, which means that as this thing is going up, it means more people are putting their attention on Bitcoin rather than altcoins. So if you are an altcoin investor, investor or trader right now, you are trading an asset that is weak. So as a trader, it is a very important skill for you to identify what pairs are worth trading and what pairs are not at any given time. Now, you always want to trade the pairs that are moving, and hence why for the last 3 to 4 weeks I have been talking repeatedly about how Ethereum just looks relatively weak compared to Bitcoin. And now you see the reason why. That is an explanation. So what is the situation with Bitcoin dominance? Essentially, I am looking for the Bitcoin dominance to, well, To be honest, right now you have just broken above the range high, and you see that Bitcoin dominance actually tried to get rejected off of the range high and tried to revert back to the mean, to somewhere around the mid-range. And if you can't visualize the range, this is what I'm talking about, right? That's the range low. You can see most of price is just trading between these 2 levels, and Bitcoin, the dominance, actually tried to revert back into the mean or even back to the range low. But clearly you see that didn't work and it's still going higher, and there is good reason to believe that this thing is still going to continue higher. So Right now, the general advice would be focus on Bitcoin and any pairs that are just looking strong at the moment. But that's not going to be a lot of altcoins. In fact, a lot of altcoins are going to be extremely weak compared to Bitcoin at the moment. So focus on Bitcoin until it sort of, as what I've explained in the S&P 500, goes to a point, starts ranging, and that's when the money flow is going to flow from Bitcoin into the altcoins. And that's where altcoins are going to take off, and that's when you should focus on the altcoins. Not right now. So talking about altcoins, let's get into the Ethereum chart. And again, I do not have much to say about Ethereum because, you know, sort of just in a gray zone. Like, as a trader, it's also important to understand that one of the biggest reasons why most people don't make it as traders is because they think that the more trades they take, the better, like the more money they're going to make, when in fact that is not true. Because as traders, you want to trade less, but you want to trade the best. That is one tip that is going to take you over the top if you have been struggling as a trader. Like, just focus on the ones that are strong, focus on the coins that are moving, focus on the pairs that are good to trade. And Ethereum at the moment just doesn't seem like it, but it could be good soon. At the moment, I just don't see it. And if there is any update on Ethereum, I'm going to post them on my Twitter. So make sure you follow me on Twitter at _TheArtOfCrypto, and I will give you an update then. Now, before I get into the altcoins and the potential trade ideas that I think are looking good, I'm going to give you a quick update on what's going on with USDT. Now, this is from the private Discord group, which I've already shared, you know, sort of what I think about it, but I'm sharing with you guys right now. So essentially, for those of you who don't know, there was actually a lot of FUD going on with USDT last week with the whole situation with Binance and Robinhood and the SEC like bringing regulation to the market And people are being afraid that USDT is gonna you know just fall, and USD is gonna fall, and basically the entire crypto market is gonna fall. Now, whenever you run into a situation like this, it is always important to remember that in every single year since pretty much when I've joined the crypto markets back in 2018, you pretty much have like every month you have some kind of FUD against the USDT. Here's what you need to understand about the USDT. Now sure, it can deviate away from one dollar because that's just the way the markets work, right? You create panic, you put enough stress on the system, and it's going to deviate a little bit. But every time USDT bounces back, and for For what reason? Well, I can't tell you exactly for what reason. Well, simply put, if USDT falls, so does crypto. Most of liquidity in crypto comes from USDT or with USDT. And because of this, like, you can imagine just how much vested interest there is in crypto, not just from the retail side, but also from the institutional side and the governmental side. And I know the governments want to create a CBDC and stuff like that, but you just gotta remember, at the end of the day, follow where the money is. And there is a lot of vested interest in crypto. I don't think they will let it fall. But again, that does not mean that crypto won't ever fall. Or that USDT will never collapse, just like how people used to think that TerraUSD or Luna stablecoin didn't really have much risk of collapsing, and yet it did. So at the end of the day, USDT is as safe as it can be. If you really want to go into a safer coin, I would recommend USDC. But at the end of the day, if you are holding any stablecoin or if you're holding any crypto at all, if USDT were to fall, crypto is going to collapse and so is your portfolio. And is there a way that you can mitigate that risk? Absolutely. Invest into traditional assets like gold, like real estate, like forex pairs. Like the Swissy and the Singapore dollar, stuff like that. But is there a way that you can mitigate that risk while being in crypto? No, because at the end of the day, crypto is a new technology, and this is the risk that we take in order to invest into this revolutionary technology. Now, if you take a look here, this is just a little bit of a quote that I can provide for you, which is that the markets have always and will be a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient, from those who lack belief to those who have conviction, from those who are fearful to those who take risks. As long as you remember that You will be fine in any investment situation. So that is the situation with USDT. Now just one last piece of news update before we get into the altcoins is the fact that BlackRock has recently filed paperwork for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Now this is absolutely huge. This is one of those events that is like a catalyst for Bitcoin going not just to $35K, but in the next bull market it is a catalyst for it to go over $100K, $200K, $300K. Because BlackRock is essentially the world's largest fund. They have over $8 trillion in assets under management, and that just what the public number suggests. I would assume that that is going to be a much larger number. Essentially, BlackRock owns half the things you own. They probably own the companies that make your plastic bottles. They probably own a stake in H&M or whatever clothes that you wear. They own basically half the world. And in the past, they used to be very vocal and was highly against Bitcoin. But recently, they have changed that stance because they have just filed an application for a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund with the SEC. The application was filed on Thursday and uses Coinbase for custody and market pricing. If approved, this would be the first product of its kind in the US. And while the SEC has a history of being very ambiguous and like just not a big fan of crypto ETFs, and because of that history, the SEC may not approve BlackRock's application. But here's an interesting little piece of information. BlackRock's record of getting ETFs approved is 575 to 1. Either way, this is an exciting piece of news, and let me tell you what this means for the crypto markets. It means that institutional investors are looking to get into Bitcoin, and at what price? At low prices. So ladies and gentlemen, this is long-term highly, highly bullish. In the short term, we'll still have to see. We'll follow the price action closely. And if you watch until this point so far, let me know if you appreciate these news updates, or would you rather just me focus on the TA side of things? Let me know in the comment section below. And now let's get into the altcoin TA. We're going to start off with BNB. Essentially, all you need to know about BNB is that it is looking extremely weak, and I wouldn't necessarily buy something just because it is, you know, cheap, because the markets do not function like a supermarket. In a supermarket, if you see toilet paper going for 70% off, you're probably going to buy a couple of rolls just because, you know, you're going to need it in the future anyways, right? It's a good deal, so you buy it. But the markets do not function like a supermarket. Just because something is cheap does not mean that it is good value, and that holds for BNB as well. I know BNB has been absolutely like just one of the strongest coins. In fact, BNB was my best performer in the last bull market, and it gave me just huge, huge returns. And I still hold until today large amount of BNB. But at the moment, it is sad to say that BNB is looking weak at the moment. Essentially, if BNB does not bounce at this level right here at $240, then there is a very good chance that it's going to drop another 40 to 80% over the near term. Now, why do I say that? Well, for those of you who have watched any of my videos, you know that this is sell-side liquidity, and this is on the weekly chart. This is not some baby chart. This is on the weekly chart. And usually, if the market makers want the markets to go up, they target the sell-side liquidity as fuel. The fuel tank is full. That is going to be good enough reason for BNB to take off from here. And yet, it is still looking pretty weak, especially if we zoom into the daily chart. It does not seem like it is making large moves to go to the upside yet. Just like with Bitcoin, I want to look for clear change of character, meaning swing highs being broken on the daily chart to the upside with a candle body close. Then I want to look for more clear order blocks to form. For example, this here could be a potential order block. Now, not confirmed yet, and I definitely wouldn't buy here. But if you do get a situation where you get change of character, you know, you break previous swing highs and then you get clear order blocks and then price just bounces, that is going to be a good sign that BNB is reversing. But at the moment, if I were to be doing anything, I would be leaning towards going short here. And I know you might be thinking, wow, but BNB price is already this low, like why short here? Simply put, anything that is low can go even lower. For example, BNB is currently down about 68% And yet there is potential for it to drop another 40 to 80% from current prices. So remember, anything that's low can go even lower. It's all a game of percentages at the end of the day. And currently BNB looks weak. I would definitely be leaning towards shorting this all the way back to— minimum target is $148.50. Now I know that seems ludicrous. That's about a 40% drop. If you go into the weekly chart, This is where the liquidity void exists, right? If I draw a fib right now from where it all started, you can see that we're already in a discount, which means that if BNB were to bounce, it is either going to bounce here within the golden pocket, which is between the 618 and the 705. And if it does not bounce here, a $40 BNB would not be out of the question. Again, if you think that this isn't possible, I just want you to remember for a second that in the last bull market, everything looks strong. It would be ludicrous to Imagine Solana being anything less than $50. And yet, based on the way Solana is going, it's looking like it's gonna go below $10. In fact, it was below $10 just 6 months ago. So things can change quickly in a bear market. For example, if you thought Solana was cheap back here, like, oh, you know, support, support, support, support, bought at all of these points right here, you would've been absolutely screwed because from those points it still went lower by almost 70%. Like, even if I don't use a point that high, let's say I just buy here, it even went lower by 54%. All right, that's just a good example of why you don't buy things just because they're cheap. So speaking about Solana, there have been multiple people on Twitter talking about Solana and they want to see an update. So here is the update on Solana. Essentially, because of Robinhood delisting Solana and the SEC stating that Solana is a security, I wouldn't even consider buying this at the moment just because of how much uncertainty is surrounding it at the moment. Now in the future when it does bounce, yeah, it wouldn't be too late, but for now I would just short this back to zero. Like, those bullish plans was like 2 weeks ago. A lot can change in 2 weeks because it was actually looking pretty, pretty good to start reversing to the upside until this happened. You know, this is what I mean by the last 3 to 4 weeks have been a bit tough because every single plan that I had just seemed to be some kind of unexpected news event that just throws it off completely. So, but either way, the TA is still strong. I'm going to still be here giving you guys the market update every single week so that you guys have opportunities and you guys can make money with the knowledge. In fact, speaking about making money, I remember Remember, took some cues from the AOC update video, watched the sweep of daily liquidity, sweep of Friday high, entered on the retrace of the 4-hour bit breaker structure, and look at that, 95% gain. If you guys have made money thanks to the market update videos that I've been doing each week, let me know in the comment section below. Let me know on Twitter. It would mean so much to me to know that this type of content is helping you guys out. And even if you haven't made any money, if you appreciate this type of content, just let me know in the comment section below. Anyways, Solana target at the moment is going to be Well, believe it or not, $9.50. Essentially, until things change for Solana, I really wouldn't consider even like bothering to buy this. Like this fair value gap recently got filled here and it's currently bouncing. If it doesn't bounce from here, like easy going to come back to around the $11 to even $9.50 area. So for now that remains the target. So it's either $11 or $9.50. That is going to be the short target, right? If you like basically any pumps right now, just short it until things change. And if they do change, then you will hear from me in next week's market update video.