In this video Roman Ceccardi provides a market commentary that blends macro‑economic analysis with short‑term technical trading guidance for Bitcoin, Solana and Ethereum. He begins by noting a short‑term price signal (a dip on the 5‑minute chart) and explains that the week’s high news flow raises the probability of success for his systematic trading approach. He then dives into a macro overview, arguing that the recent up‑trend in the US Dollar Index (DXY) is driven by four factors: (1) Trump‑related tariff actions that could stoke inflation, (2) the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance after earlier rate‑cut expectations, (3) interest‑rate differentials that make the dollar attractive relative to other major currencies, and (4) heightened geopolitical risk prompting a flight‑to‑safety into the dollar. He links higher 10‑year Treasury yields to rising inflation expectations, suggesting that despite anticipated Fed cuts, the dollar may stay strong for the next 2‑3 months, which could suppress crypto prices. Ceccardi then translates this macro view into a Bitcoin thesis: while Q4 historically favors crypto, the current macro backdrop could produce a 2‑3‑month dip. He cautions against buying spot now, recommending waiting for confirmation via specific bearish candle closes (around $108,300 or $100,800). He reviews recent performance, noting a successful short‑term trade that hit his target on a non‑news day, and emphasizes that his system has been short‑biased for the past five weeks, delivering strong returns to his audience. The bulk of the video shifts to intraday trade setups. Using the daily, 1‑hour, and 5‑minute charts, he identifies fair‑value gaps (FVGs), order blocks, and “PD arrays” (price delivery patterns) as entry criteria. He highlights a filled fair‑value gap from the London session that could act as a high before a potential downside move, and stresses the need for a change‑of‑state delivery signal (a dip on the 5‑minute chart) before entering. He outlines a news window from 8 AM to 10 AM New York time as an “A+” trading opportunity, given clear daily bias and multiple PD arrays. Asset‑specific analysis follows: - Bitcoin: bearish daily bias, focus on short entries around the identified order block and FVG, wait for 5‑minute dip signal. - Solana: similar bearish outlook; a short entry is viable once price breaks below $152.70 on the 1‑hour chart, with a target around the fair‑value gap. - Ethereum: multiple order blocks and fair‑value gaps on the 1‑hour chart, all pointing to downside; longs are discouraged. Throughout, Ceccardi promotes his newsletter and a paid masterclass that purportedly teaches the system achieving an ~80 % win rate over the past 300 days. He ends by inviting viewers to follow his live trades on X. The video’s purpose is to inform crypto traders about the macro forces affecting crypto prices, provide concrete short‑term trade setups, and market his educational products.
Chapters
By the time 8:30 AM rolls around and you start seeing price start, you know, dipping on the 5-minute chart, that's going to be your signal to go short at that moment, and you're going to target to— ah, right. Welcome back to another video, guys. Yesterday's trade was a bit of a banger, if I do say so myself. Came back up into the order block and off we go. This is once again another example of trading what the market is telling us rather than what we would hope to see from the markets. Today we're going to hope to replicate that success from yesterday as well as the success from Monday. So, so far we're on a roll, but we already kind of expected this because this week we have a lot of news incoming. And on a week where there's a lot of news, the probability of the system that we're using just jumps by a lot. So yeah, definitely look to take advantage as much as possible this week because, you know, this type of week doesn't come around every single month. But anyways, um, to those of you that have signed up to the newsletter, just understand that by the time that you're watching this video, the link to sign up to the masterclass will be live. But to those of you who are not on the newsletter yet, and if you haven't yet signed up to the masterclass, I will put the link public tomorrow. But for now, it's going to be first dibs to the people that are already on the newsletter. But anyways, getting into the video today, before I actually get into it, um, just wanted to talk real quick about the dollar index because from what I've seen so far, the dollar index has now started to go into a bit of an uptrend. If you take a look at the weekly chart, this weekly candle close from last week has now cemented a potential change in state of delivery in terms of the DXY. And the reason why I'm mentioning this is because the dollar index is a very huge predictor of whether or not crypto is going to go up or down. Simply put, when the dollar index goes up, crypto tends to be inversely correlated, which means dollar index up, crypto down. This pump on the dollar index could be a reason why we're seeing Bitcoin just not perform as well as we have expected it to. And I've did a lot— I basically spent the whole day researching this today. And I think it kind of boils down to 3 reasons why this potentially may be happening and what this means for crypto moving forward. I'm gonna get into the intraday setup in just a bit, but if you wanna listen to a little bit about macro and how this is gonna shape the next 3 months, then yeah, feel free to stick around. So one of the big reasons why the dollar could be pumping right now is due to Trump. And one of the first reasons is going to have to do with inflation because I don't know if you guys noticed this, but a couple of months ago, the Federal Reserve started cutting rates. And back then, their tone was like, okay, there's probably gonna be at least 2 to 3 rate cuts Before the end of the year, and now if you notice, the Federal Reserve has taken on a much more cautious approach, a much more ambiguous approach where okay maybe we like it may happen, it may not. And one of the big reasons why this is happening is because of Trump's tariff deals that you know he kind of brought up recently with China. Just to give you some context, the more tariffs go up, like everything else just becomes really expensive, like cost of goods, you have to pay your people more, and like it just. affects the entire supply chain. And when that happens, well, that's going to lead to higher inflation numbers. And the reason why this matters is because the Federal Reserve, like, one of their key tasks is to prevent inflation from running out of control, is to keep the economy in a state of balance as much as possible. Now, who defines that? That's a whole other story. But if inflation is about to go, you know, kind of rampant, they cannot lower the interest rates because that's counterintuitive. You raise interest rates to fight inflation. So usually, You know, when the Fed cuts rates, that's usually a very positive event for crypto because, well, the dollar's gonna weaken, interest rates go down. But that's kind of like what Trump is doing right now is kind of putting a dent into all of this. Now, the second thing that you need to understand is one of the reasons why the dollar is pumping despite the rate cut is, could be due to another reason, which is the interest rate number itself. Like, it doesn't just exist within a vacuum. Interest rates are always correlated to the interest rates of other currencies. So just to give you an example, European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, like basically every other major economy in the world right now has a lower interest rate compared to the US dollar, which means that if you were to put your money into somewhere, right, to either buy US dollars or let's say to buy euros, you'll get a bigger return out of buying US dollars because you have a higher interest rate. And that could be a reason that even though the rate cuts are coming into effect, it is not lower than the other major currencies. Yet, and that's why people are choosing to go into the US dollar. Third, it could be due to geopolitical risks. Right now, the world is very much unstable, especially compared to just 5 years ago. And the more dangerous, or like, the more unstable the world becomes, people look for a safe currency to get into. Historically, that has been the US dollar. That could be another reason. And fourth, actually, this should be going back into inflation because I completely forgot to mention this. In terms of inflation, we're already seeing that, you know, the smart money and the market participants are already kind of expecting inflation to go really high because the 10-year Treasury yields right now are almost a percentage higher compared to just a couple of months ago. Now, in September 2024, it was sitting at, I believe, 3.5% or 3.6%. Right now it's sitting at 4.3%. And what this means, right, if you don't know anything about this, is that when bond yields go up, when 10-year bond— when 10-year Treasury yields go up, it means that people are either expecting a lot of inflation to come into the market, or they're expecting the economy to grow. This time around, you could argue that it's a combination of the both, but I think it's very much inflation fears at the moment. And so all of this is kind of adding up to the fact that, yeah, the rate cuts are coming. Usually they would be a bullish event for crypto, but because of what Trump is doing right now, we could potentially be seeing the next 2-3 months where the dollar index actually pumps rather than goes down as people flock into the US dollar. And this is not going to change unless all those other factors that I mentioned changes. And so this puts a dent into this overall kind of Bitcoin thesis where, you know, we're expecting kind of a new high. You know, people say Pumptober, you know, Pump November, Pump December, whatever. Usually Q4 of crypto tends to be pretty bullish, but this is very much a different story this time around. So what I would still say is that long term, there is definitely a macroeconomic kind of reason to believe that crypto could go lower. But I would say that until we get confirmation, which I mentioned already in yesterday's video, that we get a candle close beneath either here or here, which is exact levels is 108,300 as well as 100,800, we can't really be too sure and we can't really just jump into like just selling all of our crypto right now. But what we have at least been doing is that over the last 5 weeks we have been shorting aggressively. Like to those of you who have been following this channel, you guys not only did not lose money, but you guys also made a lot of money because we've been calling every major dump. And we're going to look to continue doing that. But just keep in mind that in terms of the macro, now's not a good time to be buying spot into crypto at the moment. I know people say, you know, buy the dip, but this is kind of the start of what could otherwise be a 2 to 3 month dip. Like, overall market structure is still bullish, but it's definitely looking a little bit shakier. But now that that's out of the way, let's get into some, you know, Intraday trades, because I'm sure that's what you guys are here for. So in terms of the daily chart, yesterday we closed bearish. So again, we're going to be looking for bearish trades. And if you guys remember, I set these 2 as targets for yesterday. In fact, I actually did mention that this would be the target for yesterday. I'm super surprised that it actually hit because yesterday was a non-newsday. And usually on non-newsdays, price tends to be a little bit choppier. It doesn't move as aggressively. But hey, it happened. So right now, even though the target has been hit, it's still a bearish daily bias. And so we're going to continue to look for shorts. Now, it's never too late to jump into longs until at the very least we get a bullish daily close. Then at least we can jump into some, you know, a more certain move, a more certain reversal. That's a much better way to do it because ultimately we don't want to be catching bottoms here. And my favorite sayings that I've said this time and time again, top pickers and bottom pickers usually end up becoming cotton pickers because this is just a very easy way to lose money when it comes to the markets. So right now we move down into the 1-hourly chart to identify what sort of PD arrays that we have to look at. And the first thing that jumps out at me is going to be this fair value gap right here that we have filled during the London session. So now that this has been filled, sure, you could still fill it again. Like, just to give you an example, this is, you know, potentially a high that could be swept as we head into New York. But right now there are 2 ways that this goes. One is that you have another leg up before you break structure, before you break order flow, and you start heading towards the downside. Or with this candle close here, Technically, technically, this is already a bearish order block, which means that could just, you know, dump from this point onwards. Now, I cannot predict what is going to happen like 4 hours later, 5 hours actually, because right now it's only 4:00 AM New York. Which, by the way, shout out to everyone on X yesterday that was reminding me that yes, daylight savings happened. So like everything's pushed back by an hour. It's so funny yesterday on X because I was like, oh yeah, it's already past 10:00 AM, I'm not going to take a trade, just to realize, oh, It's actually 9 AM. There was a bit of a dumb moment, especially because on X just a few days ago, I was posting to you guys like, yeah, guys, remember next Monday the clocks are going to shift backwards, so be careful of that. And yet I was the one who fell for it. But anyways, that was a— just a little side story. So yeah, I cannot predict what is going to happen in the next 5 hours. But what I can tell you at least is that today we have news at 8 AM and 10 AM New York. This is amazing news because basically the entirety of the 7 AM to 10 AM window is going to be tradable for today. That is an A+ setup because, well, we have very clear daily bias, we have very clear PD arrays, and we have a couple of pieces of news. So in the event that either one of these scenarios happen, you are all good to go for a short. Now, this of course does not matter if you do not get some sort of 5-minute change in state of delivery. Um, so even once these levels are swept, you need to wait for that change in state of delivery. That's going to come as an example here where this becomes a potential bearish order block. Of course, this has already been blown through. So once you get the change state delivery, of course, this has already been blown through potentially because right now it's the London session and it's not yet the news, you know, time. But as you get closer to news, once you see the behavior of price align with a specific time, that is when you know that things are going to go really well. Shout out to all of the comments that I got from yesterday about, you know, people getting huge wins on Solana. Congratulations. In terms of Solana, let's just look at it real quick. So far, this is going to become the next Uh, kind of bearish PD array, um, with a potential fair value gap within that order block. So Solana is going to be the same exact story, like you're just going to be looking for downside. I wish we could pump from this point onwards, but in terms of Solana, you're going to be looking for a revisit into the fair value gap because over here you don't really have an order block. You don't get the order block, by the way, until you get a 1-hourly close beneath $152.70. So until that happens, you're going to be returning back into the order block— sorry, back into the fair value gap. back into the order block as well, actually, before downside. And you're going to want to look to take a trade potentially between 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM New York, because that's when you are getting news. Now lastly, we're going to take a look at Ethereum real quick. Now on the daily chart, you are definitely bearish, like no question about that. In terms of the 1-hourly, you are looking very much similar. Here you have an order block, and you're going to have a potential fair value gap as well. In fact, you have quite a few fair value gaps. That's going to be one of them, that's going to be 2 of them, and this is going to be the 3rd one. So yeah, lots of areas of resistance. Uh, everything is still pointing towards the downside. I'm not looking to take any longs. I would highly suggest that you don't look for any longs today, even if there is a long setup. Again, it's never too late to jump in tomorrow. By the way, appreciate all of the support that you guys have been giving lately. Like, I read every single comment and much love. Anyways, I'm going to see you guys tonight on X if I take any live trades. And just a reminder, sign up to the masterclass. It's where I'm going to be breaking down this exact system that you've seen achieve an 80% win rate over the last— well, for the better part of the last 300 days. Anyways, see you guys tomorrow. Ciao ciao!
