Bitcoin: This Is The ONLY Possible Play For Today

Welcome to another video. There is only really one trade setup possible for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana today, and if that doesn't happen, then most likely we're not going to get, you know, any sort of quality trade today. I'm going to break that down right after I talk about yesterday, which is, guys, now if there's one lesson that I want you guys to take away from yesterday, it's the fact that, all right, yesterday, uh, we talked about how there was going to be a CSD. That in fact happened, and then during the New York session, it just kind of chopped around. for most of it until eventually we got such a big pump that it immediately stopped everyone out. And one of the key things that I want you guys to take away from yesterday is that this is not random. One of the reasons why I spent so much time— and I know you guys are sick of hearing this by now, but like, market conditions are a really integral part of trading. Nobody really talks about this, but you've got to understand, trading is not just about, you know, what you do to, you know, Whatever the chart is. It's not about the trades that you take, the buttons that you press, or the technical analysis that you do. Yes, like, that is very important, but at the same time, you also got to keep in mind that you could have the best price action. In yesterday's case, as an example, we had, you know, all of the confirmations where we got the CISD, and then, you know, we were in the right timing, we were in the New York kill zone. Eventually, you got a second CISD even after, you know, forming a strong high over there where you swept out the liquidity. on that side of things, and then just to have the price like go turn completely against you. And this is an example of like price action playing out. And this is an example of where, you know, all of the conditions in terms of price action are met, but simply because you are trading in an environment that is not conducive to, you know, quality trading. In yesterday's case, it was a Monday and it was a non-news Monday. Both of those factors combined means that even if everything— means that even if everything else lines up, the chances of your trade playing out in the way that you want it to, which means ending up in a win, is lower simply from the market conditions. And so I know that you guys don't like it when, you know, I go on a long spiel about, oh yeah, you know, even if all these things, just keep in mind, like, you know, I gave you guys so many warnings yesterday. Like, the truth is it's important. And when I make these videos every single day on YouTube, I personally feel responsible for whether or not you guys, you know, end up getting a win or a loss. Due to my advice. And ideally, I want you guys to win as much as possible and have losses as little as possible. And so, you know, I really go out of my way to talk about these things, even if it ends up getting me less engagement on YouTube, because you guys matter more to me than some, like, getting an extra 100 views or 1,000 views in this instance. But with that out of the way, let's get into the trade setup for today. So far, what we're looking at is we have a bullish daily bias, but you got to keep in mind, even with the bullish daily bias, we have an overall bearish weekly bias, which means that any pumps that are occurring early in the week might just end up being some sort of a setup where this is the weekly open, and initially you have kind of like a manipulation, kind of a false move up before we eventually get new distribution, or rather the true move of the week heading towards the downside. Primarily because, again, we had a very bearish weekly close just last week, and that means we are looking at a weekly bearish bias. But not only that, we filled in this bearish fair value gap, and then we started breaking lower Right after filling in that bearish fair value gap. Not only that, but we have a couple of CSDs. And right now, even though we are in a bullish order block, it does not mean anything until we get some sort of clear CSD. And that means at the very least, right, at the very least, a weekly close above $93,500. If we get that, then yeah, you know, maybe we might be back into some bullish territory on the weekly chart. Until that happens though, we're just going to continue trading with the assumption that the market's going to go lower. Because at the moment, this is what the market is showing us. And if there's anything you guys know about being a trader, is that we trade what the market's trying to tell us, not necessarily what we want for the market to do. So anyways, going back to the daily bias, uh, yes, we have a bullish bias, but we're going to trade today on the bullish direction with a grain of salt. Uh, in today's case, probably a few grains of salt, because not only did we come into a bearish fair value gap on the daily chart, the overall order flow is still pretty bearish. So Even if we have a bullish daily bias, it doesn't mean that I'm just going to jump straight in and be like, oh yeah, you know, today, yeah, we're going to go long. Remember how I said earlier on in the video that there is only really one possible setup for today, and that is going to be this one that I'm about to discuss. This is in the bullish direction, and let me start off on the 5-minute chart because this is going to illustrate this a little bit better for you. So this blue box right here is a 1-hourly bullish order block that we're in at the moment. And in terms of the 5-minute chart, you can see that the London has traded below the Asia session low, which means that today the setup, like To longtime viewers of this channel, you already know what's up. An Asia accumulation, London manipulation, followed by a New York distribution, which means that the setup for today is you're going to want to see some sort of a bullish CSD, ideally an undeniable one, before— oh sorry, not before, but like in the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM. And specifically, you're going to want to, based on whatever the chart is showing you at the time, now at this very moment, you just kind of want to see a break of at least 2 consecutive bearish order blocks. So for example, right now this is a bearish order block and this is a bearish order block. If you manage to above both of them, then yeah, maybe you have the signs of kind of like an undeniable CICD. If you get 3 consecutive breaks, amazing. But like the minimum kind of like requirement is going to be a break above 2 bearish BD arrays on the 5-minute chart. And then for it to come form a higher low, if you get that and you start forming another high, then great. Like that's, that's your conditions met for an undeniable CICD. Just remember to approach today with caution. Again, I don't want to sound like a broken record here, but market conditions matter because It dictates how aggressive or how conservative you should be in your trading. When you have an A+ day, you have, you know, Wednesday, everything, timeframe alignments there. When you have an A+ day, for example, let's say it's a Wednesday and then you have like 2 pieces of news later on in the New York morning session, you have timeframe alignment, you have a strong high, you have a strong low, you have SMT, you have a clear session profile. You know, when all of these conditions are met and you are clearly looking at an A+ day, great, right? The moment CSD happens, as you get closer to that news window, boom, right? Just be aggressive. You don't have to wait for, multiple CSDs in the case that I'm recommending to you today. But in a day where you have no news— today we have no news, plus we have clear reason to believe that this pump here, plus this daily bias that is bullish, we have reason to believe that this is just going to end up being some kind of false pump before some kind of big dump later on in the week— then you got to play it with a little bit more caution. Where usually on a news day, on an A+ day, you would go for the early CSD, well, today maybe go for the conservative CSD, right? Wait for more undeniable confirmations, make sure that everything aligns before you jump into the trade. And that is how you take into account market conditions. And also, instead of 1% risk as you would usually, maybe go for 0.5% risk because market conditions matter, right? It's not just about whatever's happening on the price action. If it was as simple as, oh, if you come into bullish order block, you buy, if you go into bearish order block, you sell— if it was that easy, everyone would be making money. The truth is there is a whole lot of other confluences. And one of those confluences, one of those factors that you should definitely keep in mind is market conditions and how you adapt to the environment. Just going back into the 1-hour chart, we can see that we are now in this bullish order block, which means that if you do not end up getting that CSD on the 5-minute chart, today is going to end up being a no trade. Because if that doesn't happen, well, guess what? Price is going to continue to reach below for the bottom of this order block. And most likely— well, not most likely, but like more likely than not— you might end up with a candle close on the 1-hour chart below this bullish order block. So if that happens, then yeah, clearly it's bearish. And if that happens, it doesn't mean that, you know, we're just going to flip our bias and just go straight into a short trade. It means that you should probably wait for tomorrow. In fact, just like what I mentioned on Twitter yesterday, it's like I kind of shared the setup that would be possible in terms of like, okay, the best possible setup for yesterday. But at the same time, don't get me wrong though, this is maybe the setup, doesn't mean I'll actually be trading this. I stand by waiting for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday because that's when you're going to get all the news events, and that means your trading conditions are going to be a lot more clear as well. Don't get me wrong, even though I tell you that this is probably the only setup that's possible for today, You're better off not trading today. That's the truth. Like, it's not going to get me the most views, it's not going to get me the most likes, but that is the right thing to do if your goal is to trade properly. Anyways, if you do get that CISV, feel free to just go for it. Clearly, if all of these bearish order blocks on the 5-minute chart here get broken, it means that the market's clearly telling you that, yeah, that there is a bit of willingness to go to the upside. And if that happens, just feel free to take along, you know, Maybe go half risk. That's my only recommendation for you. So outside of that, let's move on to Ethereum because maybe we might get a more interesting setup on Ethereum. In terms of Ethereum, we're coming back into this bearish order block right here on the daily chart. In terms of the 1-hourly, let's try to break this down. Whoa, this is choppy. But yeah, you know, on Ethereum, it's definitely looking weaker compared to Bitcoin where we've already gotten some sort of a bearish CSD, or rather, we are about 17 minutes out from potentially confirming this bearish CSD. Either way though, we are technically like if you really read into it, like these three down candles right here are technically bullish order blocks. So you could say that we are still in a bullish order block. Not only that, we have swept out some sort of a swing low over here. So liquidity has been taken because of the five minute chart. Like yeah, you know, you swept below the Asia lows. So right now, all you're looking for in terms of Ethereum in order to confirm some sort of bullishness is for some sort of undeniable CICD to happen. In this case, it's what? As of the exact moment that I'm looking at the chart right now, that's 2925. You do not get this bullish CICD and price starts heading up, just understand that we're probably going to go down. I know, genius, totally groundbreaking discovery. If we don't go up, we're going to go down. But the truth is— but just one thing to keep in mind, like absolutely keep this in mind, even if everything else in terms of price action plays out today and it looks like it's incredibly high quality, just keep in mind that as long as you're dealing with a non-news day, then the probability Right? If on a news day you would usually get, let's say, 75% win rate, even if the exact price action thing happens, repeats exactly. But if it's a non-news day, you might be looking at a 45%, maybe 55%, or maybe like 60% win rate, right? Just the fact that you're dealing with lower quality conditions will, you know, kind of like mess around with how likely it is for the outcome that you're looking for to happen, right? That's the only thing I want you to keep in mind. Hence, you know, adjust your risk parameters accordingly. And if you do that, then my job is done. So in terms of Solana, we have a bullish daily bias as well, but we are not reaching back into the fair value gap at the moment. And in terms of the 1-hour chart, I mean, like, yeah, all the charts are looking the exact same. Now, if there is one recommendation that I would give to you is that maybe focus on Bitcoin because in cases like this where Bitcoin is kind of in a bearish state and clearly Ethereum and Solana are also in some sort of bearish order flow at the moment in terms of the 1-hour chart, it's best to focus on Bitcoin because If Bitcoin ends up dumping, Ethereum and Solana are going to dump even more compared to Bitcoin. But if Bitcoin ends up pumping, Solana and Ethereum may not be guaranteed to pump. So in the event today where we are looking for a bullish trade on Bitcoin, like just focus on Bitcoin, at least for now, based on these bearish conditions. But outside of that, I will potentially see you on Twitter later. No guarantees though, because I will be going somewhere later. But like Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, I'm going to be locked in with you guys because that's the news days that we're going to get this week. And more likely than not, those are going to be the best trading days for this week. And so I don't want to be missing out on that. And if there is a way where we can preserve our mental capital as well as, you know, actual physical capital on the days that aren't particularly worth trading, that's what I'll do. And that's what I would recommend for you as well. But outside of that, peace out. See you in the next one. Ciao ciao.