In this market‑update video, the presenter delivers a top‑down technical analysis of Bitcoin from a smart‑money perspective. He begins with higher‑time‑frame observations, noting a bearish weekly candle that validated a weekly bearish order block and a sweep below $75,000. He explains how bearish order blocks and fair‑value gaps function as resistance and potential entry points for short trades. The analyst reviews the day’s price action across Asian, London, and early New York sessions, suggesting that volatility may be easing and that New York could provide a short‑reversal setup. He outlines the upcoming macro calendar—no news today, a FOMC meeting mid‑week, and further USD releases—highlighting how these events could drive aggressive moves. The presenter sketches a weekly outlook of continued downside bias, describing a market‑maker sell model and possible consolidation before a further drop. He concludes with a concrete trading plan: look for short entries at the bearish order block, target lower lows, and avoid trading on Mondays. The video also promotes a free macro masterclass for deeper macro‑crypto integration. The tone is instructional and analytical, with a cautiously bearish sentiment throughout.
Chapters
Good evening everyone, welcome back to another market update. So very, very red day today. None of this is surprising though because we have literally been following this exact scenario over the last week. And for those of you who are new here, I'm going to give you guys the higher time frame analysis and breakdown, and I'm going to tell you exactly why we might not be done with this down move yet. But for the ones who are, you know, have been tuning in, I'm going to give you guys the update on how to play today as well as heading into the rest of the week. So first things first, we are going to start off on the higher time frame because if we start our analysis off on the lower time frames, that's how we get lost in the noise. If we start doing it on the higher time frame and then move into the lower time frames, that's how we, you know, capture the moves that are in line with the higher time frame direction. And real quick, the first thing you want to take a look at is the fact that last week's candle closed in such a bearish way that it's honestly just hard to look at. So the scenario that we've been following Previously was the fact that after you swept this previous weekly high here, you failed to close above it, right? That signals a lack of interested buyers in keeping price above that level. And so that's why we had a bearish bias on this week. And it was so far so good, it played out. And I was basically calling for this level to get retested before any sort of up move. So the second thing that happened, last week's candle could not have closed more bearish because now with this close here, you have just validated a bearish order block on the weekly chart. Okay, bearish order blocks, for those of you guys who do not know, are resistance levels, which means for the most part, when you do return back into this level, you are going to expect downside continuation rather than expect price to just, you know, blow through this order block and just go up to $100K or go back to a new all-time high. Now, there is one possible scenario that could invalidate this idea, which is the fact that right now you are sweeping underneath $75K, right? This is what we have called for. For a while. And this is what we've called for basically since last week. And now that you have swept, there is— we are now basically existing in a very pivotal moment where if we do not close this week, like what we want to see basically is for price to sweep this low, but then close above, right? Sweep this low, but then close above. It's only the start of the week. So there is still a lot of price action to be had, but just purely based off of last week's price action, I think that this week is going to be, you know, continuation towards the downside. We have already seen that today on Monday. Where we had a pretty aggressive move. And in terms of Monday, we also kind of played this perfectly. For those of you who are in the group, essentially I updated in the morning that, hey, the fact that you have tapped into this bearish fair value gap during the London session— sorry, the Asian session— means that the London is probably going to give you a continuation. If you do get continuation, you're going to use this bearish order block right here. And so far so good, right? The moment this candle closed, boom, retested into that bearish order block, and off you go. If you had entry here, stop here, target here, it would have been a wonderful trade. Personally, I didn't take it because I literally just came back from a whole day worth of exploring around the city, which, by the way, check out the view. Pretty nice. Anyways, moving on to the game plan for today. So Asia definitely just trended downwards. London broke below Asia and continued trending downward. So I do think that based on the volatility that we have observed today, It's been a pretty volatile day. And based on this, I would even say that perhaps the daily volatility might be over, or at least the downside volatility might be over. And what we want to look for is perhaps just for New York to kind of chop around and perhaps even give you some kind of New York reversal setup. Why? Because we have just swept this previous key weekly level. Based on that, like, I think you're just going to slowly chop your way back up to $78,000 or even $79,000. Which again, you will return back to this bearish order block. Now, right before I get into, you know, marking out the daily profile and perhaps the opportunity that might be present for you guys who are watching the video now as we head into the New York session, we're going to have to take a look at Forex Factory. What we want to look for specifically is for news days because we ideally want to be trading on news days. That's when we get the most clean price action. That's when we get the highest volatility. Trading on non-news days, sure, it works, but you know, you're not going to be expecting the highest probability market conditions during those days. So We can see that today we have no news. Tuesday we have no USD news. Wednesday we have FOMC. So that's the key event that we want to look for, which means that Monday, Tuesday could just be some kind of a setup before a real aggressive move happens on the FOMC. Now there are a few things that they're going to talk about, uh, namely a lot of people are predicting that the Fed is going to reduce interest rates due to, you know, Trump's tariffs literally like just crashing and tanking the market. So Is that something to look out for? Could be bullish, but we don't know yet. And then Thursday, we have also USD news, Friday as well. So ideally, we want to be focusing all of our trading on the second half of the week, which means that the first half of the week could just be some kind of a setup. And in this case, let's try to predict what the setup could be. Right now, if we draw a Fib— sorry, right now we can see that there is a daily fair value gap right here. Today, again, the profile could just be that, given the fact that today has been pretty aggressive, And pretty volatile, even with the lack of news, means that perhaps New York might just chop around later tomorrow. If you get a retest into the bearish fair value gap either tomorrow or Wednesday prior to news, then the setup is going to be for bearish continuation to the downside. Something else that you can keep in mind is that we might just start forming some kind of consolidation here. Look for one leg up, second leg up perhaps on Wednesday, and then you're going to start tanking. That is going to be a market maker sell model. So that was for. The rest of the week, right? We're just kind of predicting the weekly setup. I don't know what's going to happen yet because again, in terms of weekly, yes, you are overall heading to the downside. The macro conditions do line up to the fact we're probably leaning more towards the downside than the upside, which by the way, if you guys want to learn everything you want to know about macro and how to apply it to crypto, I did a free masterclass the other day that lasted 2.5 hours with like 150 slides and like 5 to 6 different bonuses. We're going to keep the replay up for a limited time, so if you want to get access to it, click the first link in the description box below. Once you put in your email, check the first email that we send. The macro masterclass is going to be inside that first email. Otherwise, going back to what I was saying before, the weekly chart does not look to be lining up for bullishness. The macro conditions does not look to be lining up for bullishness. And well, well, as well, you have, you know, this bearish order block right here. But the one, you know, shining hope One glimmer of hope perhaps is that you have just swept below this weekly level. So if there is a reversal that happens, today will be the day that tells you. But again, just because of how many bearish factors are kind of lining up at the moment, as much as I hate to say it, I think Bitcoin's looking pretty bearish and we should be looking for bearish continuation until proven otherwise. It's the exact same setup that we called for during, um, right here where I was telling you guys not to buy because this is what happens when you get this type of retail trap. So the game plan for today is going to be pretty straightforward. If New York gives you some kind of opportunity to retest into this order block, you're going to want to look for a short targeting, you know, this low right here. Although personally, Mondays are not really a trading day for me. I wouldn't recommend trading on a Monday. It's much better to wait for price to hit the daily fair value gap after, you know, sort of forming a range here and then sweeping out all the range highs, hitting the fair value gap, and then boom, that's going to be a much cleaner setup that we can potentially get later on during the week. But otherwise, if you enjoy this type of analysis from the smart money perspective on crypto, subscribe and turn on the bell notification because we are going to be posting a video daily from here on out, keeping you guys updated on what's going on with Bitcoin so that you guys don't get caught off guard and that you are prepared to take advantage of whatever happens. Anyways guys, I'll see you guys tomorrow in the next video. Bye-bye.
