In this video Roman Ceccardi provides a macro and intraday outlook for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies at the start of the new year. He begins by reviewing the yearly candle, noting that despite a bearish close, a bullish fair‑value gap suggests a possible retracement later in the year, likely in Q2. He explains his quarterly theory—accumulation, manipulation, distribution, and continuation/reversal—highlighting that Q2 typically features market manipulation. Ceccardi then moves to daily session analysis, describing how the Asia, London, and New York sessions form a fractal pattern that currently shows Asian accumulation, London manipulation, and New York distribution, all supporting a bullish daily bias for Bitcoin. He identifies specific intraday trade setups using concepts such as PD arrays, bullish order blocks, fair‑value gaps, and CSDs, emphasizing key price levels (e.g., $92‑93k, $93,400) and optimal timing around the 9‑10 AM news window. The same methodology is applied to Ethereum and Solana, with Ethereum showing a bullish order block on the hourly chart and Solana requiring a 5‑minute close above $136 to confirm a bullish CSD. Ceccardi references his past performance (≈75% win rate) and encourages viewers to subscribe as the channel nears 30 k subscribers, wishing everyone a happy new year and profitable trading week.
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What's good, guys? In today's video, we're going to talk about how the yearly candle is going to affect Bitcoin as well as crypto moving forward for the next few months. Also, we're going to give you the intraday setup because today we have news, which is rare for a Monday. And of course, this is the first day— well, the first official trading day of the week, or rather the first official trading day of the first official trading week of the year. So it's a bit of a mouthful, but let's just say that today is probably going to start off with a bang and we're Yeah, you don't want to miss out on the opportunity. But just to kick things off, last Friday, if you guys took this setup, my congratulations. We basically marked out 3 PD arrays. And once you get into it, as long as you don't get a candle close underneath this level right here, this is all good to go for a long. And yeah, if you guys took advantage of that, congratulations. Me personally, I'm still currently on a team retreat right now, which means that I'm not necessarily doing the most work at the moment. We will be returning home. next few days. But like, for now, just bear with the poor visual quality until, you know, that changes. But anyways, just to kick things off with the yearly candle close, we ultimately closed bearish. Now, is that the end of the world? Not necessarily. Usually when you close bearish on a candle, you are anticipating the next candle to also follow in the direction of that previous close candle. So the fact that it closed bearish means that you are anticipating some sort of bearish move. Is that the end of the world? The reason why it's not is because over here you have a bullish fair value gap, which means that there is a very high possibility that you retrace into the bullish fair value gap sometime during the year. And as for when that is, I will have no idea, but if I had to guess, it will probably come in Q2, so around, you know, like April to around June. The reason being is that if you take a look at just quarterly theory in general, there are 4 unique kind of like segments in terms of how the markets like to move. First, you have your accumulation, manipulation, distribution, And X, which can either be continuation or reversal. And usually the second quarter of every year tends to be the manipulation. So the first three months is kind of like setting that opening range, and then in Q2 you're going to manipulate below, and then Q3, Q4 you can potentially go higher. Now, am I making a prediction that's like multiple months in advance? Yes. Is things bound to change in between now and then? Absolutely yes. But I'm definitely going to keep you guys updated as we go through the months. But anyways, now that that's over, let's get into that weekly— sorry, let's get into that daily trade. So to kick things off, we are definitely looking very bullish to start the year. Not only have we gotten 5 consecutive bullish closes, but we have also gotten, well, multiple CSDs. And like, yeah, overall it's just looking really good for a long, and especially so, and especially more so if we manage to close above $93,400 today. Now just the fact that I'm saying this right now means that it's probably not going to close above $93,400. 3,400 today, just because like the markets have a way of wanting to just mess around with, you know, traders and how they feel. Like you think this is going to happen and then the market's just like, oh nope. So, but either way, we're still going to be looking for a long today just because we have an incredible amount of bullishness. Remember what I talked about earlier with the 12-month candle? When you have a bullish close the day before, then you are anticipating the next day to trade higher, which is currently what seems to be happening so far. Now, What I can see here is that during the London session, you have actually traded below the, the Asia session just to fill in that 1-hourly fair value gap right there. And this kind of gives me the impression that the manipulation has already happened. Basically trading below the Asia lows on a day with a bullish daily bias, with the fact that you have a 1-hourly PD array right underneath the Asia lows, is a textbook setup when it comes to, well, days where you have a bullish bias. Now, of course, the opposite will be true when you have a bearish daily bias. If you sweep above the Asia high during the London session, which usually tends to be the session of manipulation, just like what we talked about earlier with— in regards to quarterly theory, how the first, second, third, and fourth quarter kind of have their own unique characteristics. Well, guess what? This is a fractal concept in terms of the daily, right? If you take a look at it every single day, you have 4 sessions. You have the Asia, London, New York morning, New York afternoon. Guess what AMDX tends to correlate with? That's right. Today we are potentially having some sort of Asia accumulation, London manipulation, and a New York distribution towards the upside, towards the direction of the bullish daily bias. And so far, based on what I can see, the signs seem to be adding up towards that direction. So even from right now, you're already welcome to just start taking trades as you retrace back into bullish order blocks or bullish fair value gaps. This right here would be an example of one of them, and this right here would be an example of another one of them. Now you can also use the hourly chart to kind of like give you kind of like broader picture areas where you want to be looking at. Now the first one, of course, as in the event that when you watch this video, you're trading above this level at 92,000, 93,000, basically, that's going to be a very easy setup for you to just, you know, take something like this because at that point, this entire block here is going to become a new bullish order block after filling in the fair value gap, after sweeping the Asia lows during the London session, which again, is just going to equate to a very solid trade. As for a time that you want to look forward to, it's going to be— like, we're going to want to look for 10 AM basically, because this is the news that is going to be dropping today. And so far, um, first week of the year, we're starting off really strong because Wednesday, Thursday, Fridays are news days as well, which means that this week is very likely to be a very high probability trading week. And the fact that again, this is the first trading week of the year, there's Usually added volatility. So overall, like we're going to look to make some very decent money today, or and as well as the rest of this week. And one thing's for sure: this already you are having one hourly, you know, bullish order flow. So in the event that you get any sort of new bullish order locks or fair value gaps, that is already enough for you to just trade it towards the upside. So no need to wait for like specific levels. It's literally just momentum trading. But if you are able to concentrate your trading to the hour before news to the hour after news, which basically means like the The most ideal trading windows for today is going to be starting at 9 AM as you lead up to the news. If you can take that CSD, if you can take the 5-minute order block or fair value gap, once you get into that kind of like timing period, then that is going to be how you maximize your chances of catching a very solid trade. So yes, even if you retrace into here right now, you are able to take a trade. Now, if you want to maximize your probability, then that other scenario might 9 AM is going to be when you want to focus on the market. Now besides that, we're going to talk about Ethereum. Now Ethereum on the— we're not going to talk about the yearly chart because like, yeah, Ethereum's mainly just what we use for intraday trades. So Ethereum, you have a bullish daily bias in terms of the 1-hour chart as well. Let's take a look. Now this is also pretty beautiful because we are coming back into this entire block here, which is a bullish order block. Now Which means that again, the overall order flow is already bullish. You have a bullish daily bias. You have swept below the Asia high— sorry, the Asia lows heading into some sort of bullish PD array, and you're already showing signs of a CSD on the 5-minute chart, which means that in the event, like right now, okay, right now it's already good enough for a trade. It's just if you want to maximize your results or potentially maximize your chances, then you're going to want to wait for that news. Timing. Now, is it wrong to jump into a trade right now? No. Again, just in terms of probability, that's what you want to watch out for. Now, in terms of Solana, you are also looking very bullish. In fact, I would say Solana is looking even a little bit more bullish compared to Ethereum. Now, in terms of the daily chart, you are having a bullish daily bias. In terms of the hourly chart, you have the exact same setup where that is going to be a PD array that you are able to take advantage of. The only problem is that you are not really having that CSD yet. So in terms of Solana, You really want to see a candle close on the 5-minute above $136 before you start jumping into a long, because that would be an undeniable CSD. Basically, it shows you with undeniable proof that, hey, order flow is now bullish. And like, at that point, you can jump into a bullish trade and you're going to be pretty safe. Now, outside of that, outside of that, yeah, nothing too much. Last year we did amazing. We averaged pretty much like a 75% win rate throughout the entire year. Gonna try to do better, or just at the very least do the same for this year. To those of you who have been following me for a while, thank you so much for your support. Like honestly, this channel would not be where it's at without you guys. Now we're currently about like ten subscribers away from thirty k, so if you've been watching this channel for a while, you find value from these videos and you haven't subscribed yet, highly encourage you to do so. But otherwise, happy new year and happy trading. Ciao ciao.
