In this YouTube market analysis, the presenter (Roman Ceccardi) examines Bitcoin’s price action across multiple timeframes, applying a smart‑money framework that emphasizes session dynamics (Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York distribution). He starts with a weekly perspective, identifying a bullish order block and a bearish fair‑value gap (FV‑G) that could be respected or invalidated. Moving to the daily chart, he notes a bullish candle but highlights equal lows and a weekly FV‑G that may cause a retracement. He explains the concept of a “balanced price range” where overlapping FV‑Gs increase probability of price returning to the range before a potential move to new highs. He then drills down to the 1‑hour and 5‑minute charts, describing today’s low‑probability environment due to a lack of news, and outlines two primary scenarios: (1) a continuation of the bearish bias if price breaks below the current order block, leading to a potential New York‑driven downside move; (2) a short‑term bullish bounce if London manipulation pushes price above the order block, creating an “AMD” (accumulation‑manipulation‑distribution) setup that could be retested in New York. He stresses the importance of reading market conditions, distinguishing high‑probability from low‑probability zones, and adjusting trade size and risk accordingly. Throughout, he promotes a free masterclass on probabilistic and scenario‑based trading, invites viewers to a WhatsApp community, and encourages subscription for future smart‑money analyses.
Chapters
What's up everybody? Yesterday we quite literally made a video on how with London sweeping out the Asia's high, there is potential for today to become essentially manipulation during the London and then New York distribution. But the other scenario would just be price, you know, falling from here on outwards because you have just swept the Asia high during the London. For those of you who are not familiar with what's happening at the moment, Asia tends to be accumulation, London tends to be manipulation, right? Guess what happens when you manipulate above the highs? That's right. New York tends to distribute towards the lows. And so that puts our total win rate to 48 out of 60, which is a whole number, 80%. That means that since February until now, in the last 3 months, I have made 60 analyses and 48 of them have came true so far. So to those of you who are new to this channel, you are in the right place. We'll try our best to continue to maintain this, you know, streak. And for the people that have been watching over the past couple of months, I hope that you have made some money from these calls because nobody is doing it quite like we do. So anyways, today I'm going to give you the update on Bitcoin. Currently we are still within this daily order block, and of course, as usual, we're starting things off on a higher time frame because we always want to ensure that we are trading in line with the higher time frame flow and not against it. At the moment, based on what we can see, yesterday's candle closed bullish. However, we have a bearish fair value gap over here in an overall bullish uptrend. And so this one right here can kind of be disrespected because of the overall trend. The only thing that might concern me, and something that may lead me to believe that Bitcoin is actually going lower still, is the fact that we have relatively equal lows here, as well as the weekly fair value gap that we marked out from before. If you take a look here, that's where the weekly fair value gap is, and it is right underneath this point right here. On the daily chart. So at the moment, again, just like what we mentioned on Monday— well, yesterday— that I wouldn't be surprised if we were to retrace into here before we continue the uptrend. And so based on this theory, again, this is why we do the weekly analysis first before we even hop onto the daily analysis, so that we understand that if you do get rejected here and if you sweep out all of these relative equal lows to fill in the fair value gap, you are actually just playing into a higher timeframe, you know, game plan. So this brings me on to the overall kind of like conclusion, which is in terms of the daily, we are still within this bullish order block, which means there is still a chance for price to continue pumping today. But if price pumps, we will actually expect price to actually get rejected off of this fair value gap to take out these relative equal lows. Now, the condition that needs to be met for this, you know, bearish scenario to get completely invalidated is the price to actually trade above this fair value gap. If that happens, then we can expect or anticipate price to retrace back into this fair value gap. And fun fact, this is actually known as a balanced price range where you have a fair value gap from before here, and then you have a fair value gap here, right? This essentially overlaps. A balanced price range is much more high probability than just any old fair value gap. And so if you were to break above this, you can expect price to return here to find support and then for continuation to potentially the current all-time highs. Now, at the moment, just to— just so you understand and just so you're not confused, The game plan is for price to actually still get rejected here because this is a bearish fair value gap and we have a higher time frame, you know, kind of game plan in mind. So both are valid and both I have given you the scenarios that kind of like validates and invalidates each idea. And this is, by the way, the job of us traders. It's not necessarily to predict what the market is going to do, but rather just preparing for multiple likely scenarios that could happen. And when they do happen, All your job is, is to just read the market, determine which scenario it is, and then react accordingly. That is the job of a trader. Those who understand this will win, and those who don't, well, they tend to have a hard time with the markets. And speaking about this skill, this is something that I'll be teaching in the upcoming free masterclass in 4 days. I'm going to be teaching you this skill, like probabilistic thinking, scenarios-based thinking, amongst like the 6 skills that I'll be talking about. And this is absolutely free. I'm just gonna talk about the 6 skills that you actually need to get funded. There's not gonna be any kind of fluff, no BS. It's just gonna be 2 hours straight of value. And yesterday we made a little WhatsApp group. So if you would like to join, I am the one personally sending messages on there. If you'd like to, you know, maybe connect and see kind of like the behind the scenes and the sneak peek what's happening in this masterclass, feel free to click this right here and you can join in. Don't worry, this is not a scam. This is quite literally me. You can see it on my computer right now. Not going to open my WhatsApp actually, but like just telling you guys that this is a new addition and this is not a scam, and I would actually really look forward to seeing you guys in there. But yeah, uh, masterclass, if you want to sign up, remember it's the first link in the description box below. No fluff, just going to be teaching you how to get funded. Moving back onto the Bitcoin chart, now that we go into the lower time frames, let's take a look at what we can see. And the moment we go into the lower time frames actually is when the struggle kind of begins, because there is quite literally Nothing going on in terms of the lower time frame. Sure, we have this fair value gap over there that has it been filled? No, not yet. That was from yesterday. So yeah, we have the fair value gap and we have this previous high here, and price overall is just kind of ranging. So based on the one hourly chart, I think the key to understand here is to identify that today is kind of like a low probability trading condition. Even if we take a look at if there is news today, you can see that there is absolutely no news outside of the New Zealand dollar, and even that is. Is supposed to happen in the Asian session. So basically, for those of you who live outside of the US, it's going to be relating to tomorrow, not today. So today is absolutely zero news, and that is why the market has been chopping around since yesterday. And even yesterday's move wasn't very volatile, but we managed to catch the right side of the move. The only possible trade that I could see today— but actually, before I get into that possible trade, one thing to understand is that, like, the high probability opportunity is going to lie in waiting and being patient waiting out this low probability condition for price to enter some kind of high probability, you know, higher timeframe PD array. In this case, this fair value gap right here before we start executing. That is if we are looking for shorts. There is also another possibility where price just starts breaking down from here. Right now, as of the time that I'm recording this, it is the end of the London kill zone. And if we open up the New York, for example, right now, this could potentially become a bearish fair value gap. Let me just draw this out so that you guys are not confused. If price starts closing below this one, then we have an opportunity later during the New York to actually take a trade continuation towards the downside. That is also a possibility. But at the moment, this is looking like kind of a low probability day. And if we do take any trades, ensure that we are getting in and out pretty quickly. This also is part of the job of a trader, to identify when you are in high probability conditions and when you are in low probability conditions so that you can act accordingly. So that you're not trying to force anything in low probability conditions. And when you are in great market conditions, yeah, absolutely go balls to the wall, take on as much risk as possible, take multiple trades, because that is when the money is made. So at the moment, looking at the 1-hourly chart, I really do not see anything outside of this order block right here. So let's take a look at the 5-minute chart to see if we can potentially identify any opportunities. And right away, you can see that the Asia low here has been swept out during the London session. So just like yesterday, we had a London manipulation and New York distribution. So today it could also be London. Well, at the moment, it really highly depends on whether or not this block here gets broken through. If it does, then absolutely look for New York to retrace back into this block and for you to take a trade towards the upside. So this would be a classic AMD setup. But again, um, this kind of like misaligns. It does not align with the overall flow because the overall flow is with the downside, right? Even from the daily chart, the 1-hourly chart, it's kind of pointing towards the downside. There is, of course, a reason for us to believe why price could return back to the upside. And so the only thing to keep in mind here is that what I'm talking about right now is just preparing you for, you know, multiple scenarios that could happen. But the key, you know, skill that's going to serve you well today is going to be reading what the market gives you and then acting accordingly. For example, we have a clear idea. For example, if price breaks underneath this order block right here, you know, we just start trading in. And a lot of people lack this flexibility because they see the fair value gap up here and they think that Price needs to come back to the fair value gap, but in fact it doesn't. It's all about reading what the market is doing at certain timings of the day, and that is going to be the kill zones. So who knows? Price could completely invalidate this you know bearish theory. It could actually break above the order block and start trading higher. And if it does, then this is going to be your target. And if it doesn't, if it starts breaking down from this order block right here, well then it's going to be a kind of like an Asia plus London accumulation before. You know, New York kind of like breaks out. That's probably going to be the setup for today. Again, it's either that or Asia manipulation. London trades higher, right, over the next couple of hours. New York retraces a little bit, and that is going to be AMD, just like the setup that I shared with you yesterday. And overall, if it's AMD, this is going to be your target. And if you are trading continuation, obviously you're going to be trading into the previous daily low down here at $93,450. And if you zoom out a little bit, you can actually see further targets right here at $92,850 as well as $92,700. Although chances are today is not going to be a particularly volatile day because you do not have any news whatsoever, which also means that today is one of those days where we really want to exercise caution and try to avoid trading if possible. And if you do get into trades, ensure that you are getting into something that is absolutely A++. There is like no doubt the market is showing you exactly what it wants to do at certain timings of the day. If it happens, then get into it. But otherwise, it's also completely fair to identify the fact that today is a low probability day. And it's much better to wait for this range to, you know, continue to engineer the liquidity and then trade at the extremes, right? That's where the opportunity in ranges lie. A lot of people get screwed up by ranges, not because ranges are inherently a bad thing. It's that people are expecting trending conditions when the market is in reality inside a range. So they're expecting price to just pump straight up, but then in reality, it's going to do something like this, and the expectations and reality are mismatched. That's how a lot of people get screwed up. The way you win Or rather, the way you prevent yourself from getting screwed up by ranges is like 90% of the problem, or right, 90% of the solution lies in simply identifying when you are in a range, right? What conditions are present that will lead to the market having, you know, really low volatility? Today's one of those days because we have no news. Once you are able to identify that, then boom, the remaining 10% of the solution lies in understanding that, first of all, if you do take trades within a range, you want to, you know, try to take some profit at the range low, try to take some profit at the range high, or even, you know, closing out your entire position at the range low or the range high, right? Basically in and out pretty quickly. The second thing to understand is that the asymmetric, you know, opportunities are going to lie above the range high and below the range low. Essentially, if you want to look for shorts, try to look for shorts above once price sweeps above the range high, because what's above the range high? It's liquidity. A range is used by the smart money to engineer liquidity, essentially getting people impatient to jump into positions in the middle of the range so that ultimately they can stop out both sides before continuing the real direction. Whether that direction is down or up does not really matter, but understand the nature of ranges. And that's how it's kind of like a range trading guide 101. Anyways, that's enough for me. Been trying to break down the conditions today. Ultimately, just even just understanding when you are in high probability and low probability conditions is like 80% of the game. And that's kind of the lesson that I wish to impart to you today. Anyways, if you enjoy these analyses based on the smart money perspective, make sure you subscribe because I will be coming to you with more of these market updates. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in the next one. Goodbye.
