Bitcoin: Today's Gonna Be EXPLOSIVE

What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Yesterday's video ended up being absolutely spot on. Like I was saying, if price were to retrace into 1, 2, or 3, just look for some kind of change in state of delivery. That happened here right at around 9:30, well, 10 AM during the London close. And ultimately price shot straight to the target that I set for yesterday and then started fully reversing from that point onwards. So today the setup is very simple. From what I can see at the moment, it's going to be likely Asia accumulation breakout, and then New York— like prior to New York, you're going to retrace and price is going to continue onwards. So yesterday is a big win, putting us at 69 out of 83 of all public analyses since February, which comfortably puts us on an 83% win rate on all of these videos overall. So if you're new to the channel, just understand that you're probably at the right place because we tend to be right more often than we're wrong. Now in the previous video, like in yesterday's video, I also asked you guys in the comment section below To like if you guys wanted to count Friday as a win or not, and quite literally everyone said to count it as a win. So we're going to do it, putting it at 70 out of 84 actually. And so today we're going to get into the video. Hopefully I'll be able to maintain this win streak, and yeah, let's just keep going. So if you remember from yesterday, I mentioned the fact that the weekly candle, because it's closing bearish, we're actually supposed to look towards the bearish side until otherwise proven. On the daily chart, what ended up happening yesterday is that Even though we did go above this fair value gap right here, we did not close above it, which in fact price actually went really high, but then showed a lot of weakness heading into the daily close, which leads me to believe that today may be kind of a sell day. Although the daily chart hasn't yet shown a bearish candle, usually we want to short after we get a bearish daily candle close, which means if today closes bearish, then tomorrow we look to short. But overall, at the very moment, if you take a look at even the lower timeframes, we are starting to get a change in state of delivery. To the traditional pattern traders out there, you will know that this is a heads and shoulders pattern. And most importantly, for the order flow traders and the people that are trading smart money like I am, this is known as a change in state of delivery, which is now bearish. At least on the 1-hourly chart, it's bearish. Time will tell whether or not it is actually going to be bearish or if it's going to be bullish. But based on what current price action is showing, even though I would like to see Bitcoin go up, I think it's very important that we trade what the market is trying to tell us and not what we want to see from the markets. So for today, based on how price action is kind of shaping up, I'm going to personally lean towards the short side with a potential bullish scenario that I'm going to give to you. But just keep in mind that if we do get a bullish scenario today, it is not going to be like one of those big explosive moves. Chances are it's just going to be like a 2-hour trade and get out, basically. So to break down the bearish scenario, now one of the things that I do have to like kind of caution against is the fact that overall on the daily chart, I want you guys to take a look at this, right? And this is a previous liquidity point that got swept here. And after you swept this liquidity right here, you actually broke structure immediately in a really strong move. So far, you're retracing back into this order block that has been formed, and currently you are on the process, right, you're in the process of heading towards the upside, which means that as long as this theory holds, this is right now a bullish order block that we should be looking for price to actually find support at and then continuing to bounce, okay? This is the overall flow on the higher timeframe. Even on the weekly chart, we have just filled in this weekly bullish fair value gap, and price has shown a willingness to go towards the upside. Even overall on the weekly order flow, it's already bullish. So weekly, daily is both pointing towards the upside, right? That's the overall flow. I'm going to get into intraday. And one thing you need to understand about intraday is that it only applies to today. It doesn't— like, sure, it's good to keep the higher timeframe flow in mind, but on a day-to-day basis, it doesn't quite matter because we're not trying to capture it like this, you know? We're just capturing this, or maybe we're just capturing this, and that'll be enough to make really good money. So just to put it out there that overall, I think like the proper scenario should be towards the long side. Taking a look at the lower timeframes at the moment, it is not giving us really strong long signals. And so I'm gonna discuss both a bearish and a bullish scenario. But honestly, I like, if I'm being honest, it's kind of tough to tell today. Also, later on we have news at 8:30 AM, and at the moment that I'm recording this video, it's about 6:00 AM. And so in about 2 and a half hours, expect some kind of volatile move that, yeah, we're just gonna break down the scenarios. I'm not super confident on move today either, just because like we're getting some kind of— we're just getting conflicting signals, right? Higher time frames pointing up, but like lower time frames pointing down. And usually I would like to see all 3 time frames kind of aligned in the same direction, kind of like what we got yesterday. And yeah, just gonna, just gonna break this down. First of all, that is the fair value gap that has already been filled. I'm gonna remove this, gonna remove this, and I'm gonna remove that as well as that. So currently, what are the areas of interest that we can look at? So far we can see that there is no real fair value gaps order blocks. The only thing I could potentially see is this one right here. So potentially price may come down to here and then retrace the other way. Now on the lower time frames, what's also interesting is that London, right, only now has swept the Asia lows. And this, by the way, is the reason why I say that there is a potential bullish setup today, because the entirety of the London open kill zone, you can see here, did absolutely nothing prior to the New York open. You have swept below the Asia lows heading into some kind of support. So When I say support, I mean this daily order block right here, as well as potentially right there on the 1-hourly order block. If we trade alongside the higher time frame flow, we are supposed to look for longs today. But because the 1-hourly has shown a bearish change in state of delivery, we want to take this a little bit more cautiously. And I will give you the exact kind of like criteria and triggers that you want to look for before you dive into a long so that you don't end up counter-trend trading. Ultimately, the trend is your friend and you don't want to go against the trend. On a 1-hourly, Remember, the 2 key areas that we're looking at right now is at $106,000 as well as $105,600, potentially $105,500, right? It's within that range. We understand from our understanding of session profiles that Asia tends to be accumulation, London tends to be manipulation, and New York morning tends to be distribution. Now, this changes on a news day because we all understand that at 8:30 AM, because there is news, There is going to be some kind of move during that time. Basically, there is going to be a lot of volatility being introduced at that time. And since everyone is anticipating the volatility to come during news, you get a lot of news days where the London kill zone doesn't really do much of anything. In fact, Asia and London in this case ends up being a 2-session accumulation. And then we will look for the New York morning prior to the news to be manipulation, and then after news, or like during news and then after news, to be distribution in the other way. And that's going to be the setup that I'm going to be banking on Today. So currently, this is— well, we can remove this as well because that fair value gap has already been traded through. So just to keep things simple, this is potentially a day where this is A, we're going to get the manipulation underneath, probably within the next hour, or like we're going to stay around here for the next 2.5 hours or so, maybe 2 hours. And if price starts showing a changing state of delivery, basically breaking towards the upside, and like, let me just paint an example of what we're looking for specifically. If you take a look at this bearish order block right here, price broke down of this bearish order block, came up to retest it, and then respected it, right? Basically, price failed to break a new high. In fact, if you look at every single bearish order block that was formed within this swing here, you can obviously see that this is bearish order flow because bearish PD arrays are being respected. You have also bearish fair value gaps that are being respected. And I see the comments out there. A lot of you seem to be commenting on the fact that I have somehow managed to turn the word fair value gap From fair value gap, 3 words into 1 word. And hey, we're going to stick to this trademark, fair value gap. So, um, basically what you want to look for, for a change in order flow, is you want to start seeing bearish order blocks as well as bearish fair value gaps to get this respected. And you want to start seeing bullish order blocks and bullish fair value gaps to be respected. And then you want to trade it higher. Basically, at this point, you can already start looking for longs, and that signal is going to come in the form of a change in state of delivery. And if you get that, then that's going to be your trigger to go long. However, I would personally wait until sometime around 7:30 AM before taking any trades, potentially even 8 AM, potentially even 8:30 AM, because we have news at that time. Oftentimes during news events, you may get a situation where, let's say, price— like, let's look at yesterday, for example, just to show you an example of how the setup is going to look like. So this right here is a bearish order block, right? At the time that price was, you know, from going down, There was bearish order flow. Now, this was a bearish order block that eventually got broken through. This is exactly what you want to look for. Basically, this is called change in state of delivery. Once this happens, the trigger, or rather the setup that you would like to take, is going to be right here at the start, or rather the line where the change in state of delivery happens. Stop underneath the candle bottom, and then you want to target for 2R. Now, I don't usually recommend going for more than 2R as a beginner because when you target like a really far away target, there is a much higher likelihood Relative to 2R, that your target does not get hit, and maybe you get stopped out breakeven, maybe you even get stopped out, period. And for a beginner, arguably the most important thing for you is confidence. In fact, for most traders, the most important thing that you need to have is confidence. Because if you do not have the confidence to trust in yourself, in your abilities as a trader, in your system to be able to consistently generate profits over time, then guess what? It's going to be very tough for you to take any trades and actually stick to them because, well, you lack confidence. And the best way to build confidence as a trader is to Not aim too large of a move, just aim for 2R, get consistent with that, achieve like a 40%, 50%, 60% win rate. And then over time you're going to be like, okay, when you win, you feel good. When you feel good, you gain more confidence and it's much less likely that you're actually going to go into a lose streak if you, you know, if you're just targeting 2R. But anyways, that's what you want to look for. But oftentimes with news, you may get this before the news, right? Let's say, let's paint a picture of how this might play out today. So 7:30, you get the change of state of delivery. But then once news happens at let's say 8:30, your position might get swept out before price forms another change of state of delivery. So this is the only thing that I want to caution you against. If you take a trade before news, just pay attention that you may get a false liquidity sweep before price actually heads towards the upside. But the prerequisite is that you want to see this happen at least, and especially at 8:30, you want to see this happen at least. Now there is another way that this could play out, of course, and I could just totally be wrong on this like bullish Setup right here, and the price is actually just straight up bearish because you have formed a change delivery here. So if that happens, basically what you want to look for based on the one hourly time frame, we will have a couple of fair value gaps. Sorry, I think I said that wrong. You'll have a couple of fair value gaps, and then you'll have another one right here. And these are going to be like the two key areas that you want to look for during from the one hourly session. And also this changes delivery line right here. At actually, let me read that out. Sorry, let me read out the fair value gaps. For you guys, which is 106200. That's the start of the first one. The CSD is at 106750, and the second February gap is going to be 106800. Now, I have no idea which one's going to get hit. I would assume not the higher one because we have two hours left before news. So if you get a bearish rejection, it's probably going to happen at this February gap right here at 106000 to sorry 106200 to 106400. Basically, what you want to look for is for price to enter into this February gap and then start showing. Again, changes the delivery to the downside. Basically, you just want to see bearish order flow be respected. And the best way to tell is that you do not get— like, price doesn't trade much higher than this 5-minute order block right here, right? You can see that there's a block of orders right there, and if price comes into this area, it's going to be resistance for price to start heading lower. Now, of course, this changes, right? In fact, we're going to be looking at this order block right here from 106,400 to 106,700, because if you start forming the changes to delivery, and especially if you are able to close above this 5-minute order block, then that's going to be like— you can basically flip this potential resistance into potential support to drive price higher. But overall, like, there's really no, like, in-between. And the criteria in this case is very clear: just be patient. Don't go into the trade today if you are even not confident on how it's going to play out, or if you're not— or if you're even a little bit unsure about whether or not it is changing state of delivery. Because ultimately, Water flow is pointing down. It's a news day, so there will be volatility and things can happen quick. And because, and the reason why I'm giving you this advice is because right now the signals on the various timeframes are not quite aligned in the sense that there is no one clear signal pointing in one direction or the other. And because of that, you want to play cautiously, wait for the right triggers to, you know, happen and then get into it. Now I will be updating this in Twitter as, you know, as things unfold because Honestly, truth be told, if I could record this video 1 hour later, I think that would be much more useful to you guys. But I'm about to head out, so unfortunately I have to record this video and just make like predictions or like share you— share the scenarios with you guys. But overall, guys, if you go long, just keep in mind, take it at 2R. But if price shows willingness to go towards the downside, then that's going to be much more likely to play out in a more volatile fashion. And you could potentially even target all the way to 104,400 today, or at the very least 105,000. As the target for today if you are going towards the short side. Now again, if you're going to the long side, this— the trigger is very specific. You want to look for price to bounce either from here, like at 106,000, or to tap into the order block at 105,650. And then after you tap into that, that will be potentially New York morning manipulation and the price to drive the other way. Overall, keep in mind that if you are feeling unsure today, it is also okay to wait until tomorrow because, for example, If today closes bullish, then tomorrow 100% we're going to go bullish. If today closes bearish, it's going to make much more sense for tomorrow to also take a continuation trade towards the downside rather than try to make predictions and just to be unsure. Ultimately, your performance as a trader is going to boil down to the quality of decisions that you make, not the quantity of decisions that you make. If you can identify just 1 or 2 high probability A+ trades throughout the week and you're able to risk, let's say, 3 to 5%— well, 5 cents is overkill. But if you're able to risk 3% of your account on that A+ trade and be able to get a 2R out of it, that's a 6% account gain in one single trade. And you do not need to do that many times throughout the week in order to make a really good living as a trader. And speaking of making a good living out of trading, if you're interested in working with me one-on-one— yes, me, you, one-on-one— to get funded within a 60-day period, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below to book a call to sign up to Bootcamp. Now, full disclosure, we're already sold out 1 month in advance. So if you do get on a call, it is to sign up to a waitlist when we next open. Because of the 1-on-1 nature of this and how personalized this type of coaching is, I'm only able to take on 3 to 4 people a month. That also means that if you do decide to invest in this, it is probably going to be the highest quality program that you'll have ever joined. Don't take it from me, take it from the people that are in bootcamp. But obviously with the short supply, it is also very easy for me to sell out. So yeah, if you do book a call, just understand that you'll be on the waitlist for the next intake. And not this next one that's going to be starting in a week. But anyways, guys, if you're interested in more of these analyses from the smart money perspective on crypto, Bitcoin specifically, and some more coins to come soon, then subscribe and turn on the bell notification. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao!