In this daily market vlog, the presenter walks through a Bitcoin trade plan for the day, emphasizing the role of volatility measured by the 14‑day Average True Range (ATR). He explains that the system performs best during high‑volatility periods, citing a past October‑December window with $4‑5k daily moves. Currently, ATR shows only about $2k (≈2% of Bitcoin’s $80k price), indicating low volatility and fewer reliable opportunities. The analysis then shifts to technical signals: a bearish daily CSD (Change of Supply/Demand) establishes a down‑trend bias, and a short‑term 5‑minute CIC (Change of Imbalance) is expected to trigger a downside move after the 8:30 AM New York news window (7:30‑9:30 AM trading window). Key price levels are identified ($80,000 psychological level, $80,400 hourly fair‑value gap, $81,000 order block). The presenter outlines the trade execution steps, cautions about potential false signals, and promotes his Bootcamp and Blueprint live‑trading calls for viewers seeking deeper mentorship. The video ends with a call to subscribe for future alpha content.
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What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Had a couple of like really long travel days, but now I'm finally getting settled back into, you know, just some sort of a routine. So gonna bring back the daily videos. But anyways, I'm gonna get into the markets today. Specifically, we're gonna be looking at Bitcoin and we're gonna potentially check out a couple of other charts just to see what's going on. But either way, today we are gonna have news at 8:30 AM New York, which means that chances are it's gonna be a pretty decent trading day. So without any further ado, Let's just dive right into it by starting off with Bitcoin. So now the overall situation on Bitcoin is kind of same old, same old, but I will bring up something that I think is really interesting, which is this is something known as average true range. And essentially this shows you the average amount that Bitcoin moves from top to bottom of the daily candle averaged out over the last 14-day period. I know that sounds a little bit like a mouthful, but basically like at this current point, like the average daily range, right? Which means from top to bottom of every single Bitcoin daily candle is $2,000. Now, if you just take a look at this number right here, and the moment I zoom out, this is going to illuminate like how and when and why we have like immensely good periods on Bitcoin, especially for the system that we're trading here. Like the majority of the wins tend to come at certain periods. And the majority of the time when I'm either not trading or looking at the charts, but can't really find any good opportunities, or 3, even when I find a good opportunity, it just doesn't end up playing out fully to take profit. Well, this is gonna tell you a lot, right? Right? If you remember, like one of the best recent, like kind of like bursts of performance that I had on this system and even just on YouTube alone, and even back then, like I ran this thing called a VIP group where I basically live traded with a group of 100 people for an entire month. And one of the best performing kind of like periods for the system was from October to basically like middle of December. And if you just take a look at the average true range during that period from October You started getting like, you know, around $4,000 to $5,000 of daily movement per day on Bitcoin. And that kind of sustained itself all the way till around the mid of December, at which point it just completely just fell off a cliff. And yes, over here we did get a couple of, you know, kind of big dumps, but afterwards, like volatility has just been on a downward trend ever since. And essentially what I'm trying to get at here is that this system performs exceptionally well when there is volatility in the markets. And I'd say like traders in general will perform better when there is volatility because if you really think about it, like for a trader, we don't need to, like for investors, right? They're basically limited to buying low and then selling high, right? They can only make money one way on the market. But when it comes to traders, we can make money both ways. All we need is movement. And in times where volatility is just completely dead, it's also the reason why I haven't just been trading. It's also like, this is also the reason why like I just haven't been trading Bitcoin too much over the last, or rather in, you know, recent times because it's really hard to do anything when top to bottom of the daily candle, all you're getting is like a couple of thousand dollars. And again, this like by itself, amazing, right? You move $2,000, but it's like relative to right now Bitcoin is close to $100,000, right? It's at $80K. But here's the thing, right? $2,000. Yeah, you know, it sounds pretty decent, but it's also relative. For Bitcoin right now, that's 2% a day. Where in the past, you know, you've had periods where, you know, back in 2021, where at the peak of it, you were moving $4,000 on average a day. And The price of Bitcoin back then was like $60K, right? So it's very relative. But what all I mean to say is that right now the volatility on Bitcoin is just really low at the moment, which makes it really tough to, you know, just find solid opportunities. And even again, even when there are opportunities, it just, you find that they're not playing out as well. Or like for example, we set some nice, you know, TPs, but it just never gets hit. That's probably why. And this is something that I was just discussing yesterday during one of our bootcamp calls and like to basically like teaching them how to, you know, select the assets that have a relatively high volatility compared to other assets. Because those you will tend to get much better results using the system at the very least. And if you'd like to join bootcamp and just work with me personally, as well as work with the team personally to get you to where you want to be within the next, you know, 120 days or so, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, let's get into the actual daily setup of Bitcoin for now. So at the moment, I'm going to remove everything that's on the charts because that's going to be a little bit, you know, distracting. Now, first thing that, you know, kind of brings my eye to is the CSD that we just got on the daily chart, followed by the fact that we have gotten a bearish CSD. But right now, now that you've got the bearish CSD and you have a bearish daily bias, the setup for today is going to be pretty straightforward where you're going to retrace back into that CSD line and you're going to head towards the downside. Now, I did actually try to live trade this kind of dump yesterday with the Bootcamp guys live on the trading call. But ultimately, these candles here, which confirmed the CSD, right? That's the first CSD. That's the second CSD. They ultimately happened a little bit too quickly. And also, they just kind of went straight down. So it wasn't like that was movement that we could have taken advantage of. So that makes it tough. For today, hopefully it's going to be a little bit different. This line over here is right above this high that was formed at around kind of like session. So right now you're going to look for a sweep of the Asia highs followed by a 5-minute CIC towards the downside, and that's going to be your trade of the day. And obviously you're going to want to focus your trading in between the hours of 7:30 all the way up to 9:30 because that is the hour before news to the hour after news, which again, if you've followed my channel for any period of time, that tends to be the highest probability kind of trading window that you could possibly get, period, like in general. Because when there is news, there is reason for there to be volatility. If every single trader in the market is looking at the fact that we're going to have red folder high impact news at a certain time, well yeah, you know, everyone's going to be preparing for that time. So once you hit that time, if you get these signs, then yeah, obviously fantastic, you're going to just trade it towards the downside. Now I know immediately right now you might be thinking, okay, we have a bearish— sorry, we have a bullish CICD over here. This is one of those moments where I would say, you know, Prioritize what's happening on the higher timeframe because yes, this is a very small CSD in the context, in the grand scheme of the fact that you are in a downtrend right now, not only on the 1-hourly chart, but you're also in a downtrend on the daily. Like daily bias is bearish, so everything's pointing towards the downside. And so this is one of the ways that you can kind of catch some sort of a top and then just not get faked out by any false pumps, right? Because what we're trying to do here, we're trying to follow the trend. And when you follow the trend, good things tend to happen. Follow the trend, trend is your friend. So in terms of the hourly, obviously, like if you go, like you don't have to just stop at this line right here at $80,000. Although the fact that it is kind of like a psychological number, plus the fact that this is the CSD line on the daily chart, plus the fact that it's right above the Asia high, probably needs, like lends a lot of confluence to this level to be, you know, like, okay, once you hit this level and you get that 5-minute CSD, that should be the level to look out for. Now on the flip side, you could also come all the way to $80,400. Because that's a bearish fair value gap on the hourly. You could also go slightly higher, but I don't really expect price to go above like $81,000 because this is the original order block where, you know, this entire dump happened. So you could go really high, in which case the day where we kind of short the market probably isn't going to be today. Um, so I wouldn't look for this level— like, I wouldn't look for price to come all the way back to this level. In the event that you come to here, here, or potentially even here, like, just look for that breakdown, and once it happens Just get in and it's gonna be a pretty straightforward trade. For today, I'm actually gonna be hopping on a Blueprint live trading call, so I may or may not be able to update near stuff on Twitter as it happens, but this should give you a pretty good idea of what to expect when it comes to Bitcoin for the day. But yeah, at this point, if you enjoy my philosophy when it comes to trading and how, you know, trading can be immensely simple and you could have a lot of time freedom to just be able to travel whenever you want to while still making a decent amount of money, Feel free to click the first link in the description box below. That's the kind of result that, you know, we help you achieve. But otherwise, yeah, I'm gonna see you guys tomorrow for another video. And like, we've got a lot of cool content planned, so stay tuned. Subscribe if you haven't already, because like a lot of alpha is coming your way. Ciao ciao.
