In this video Roman Ceccardi delivers a comprehensive market commentary and intraday trading tutorial focused on Bitcoin, with brief extensions to Ethereum and Solana. He begins by warning viewers against "buying the dip" during the current multi‑month downtrend, emphasizing that most traders who entered the recent pull‑back have suffered large losses. He advocates waiting for clear trend‑confirmation signals—such as a break of structure on the daily chart—before considering long positions. Ceccardi then shifts to a tactical analysis of the daily, 1‑hour, and 5‑minute charts, highlighting a daily fair‑value gap that suggests further downside, a potential 1‑hour order block around $87,000, and the importance of the 7 AM‑10 AM New York “kill‑zone” for trade execution. He outlines his session‑based trading framework: avoid Mondays and non‑news days, prioritize Tuesday and Wednesday (manipulation and distribution phases), treat Thursday/Friday as calmer, and skip low‑volatility periods like weekends and Asian sessions. Risk management advice includes staying in stablecoins until confirmation, avoiding catching falling knives, and using the “Power of 3” concept to target high‑of‑candle sell points when bearish bias is present. Briefly, he applies the same bearish outlook to Ethereum and Solana, noting the lack of fair‑value gaps and the presence of CSD (continuous structural down) patterns. The video concludes with a reminder of an upcoming free masterclass and a call to follow his live trades on X.
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What's up? Welcome back to another video. Just to let you know, there is 5 days remaining until the big day. In 5 days, I'm going to be hosting a free masterclass breaking down the exact 80% win rate system that you've seen on this channel over the last 300 days. If you haven't signed up yet, make sure you sign up so that you know where you can attend the event. But anyways, in today's video, I'm going to get into the bigger picture kind of outlook on Bitcoin just to understand what's going on in the macro. Is it time to buy the dip? Besides that, I'm also going to get into the intraday setup for Bitcoin. But yeah, anyways, let's get into it. Starting things off on the weekly chart. And so far we have a weekly bearish bias, which means that the dump is not yet over. One of the biggest things that I will like to kind of just warn you before we get into anything else is that if you have been buying the dip, chances are you are losing money. Or at the very least, if you have been buying the dip over the last 3 to 4 weeks, maybe 4 to 6 weeks, you're losing money. And the reason why that is the case is because you are buying into something that is fundamentally still inside a downtrend. If you can just see here, ever since the start of October, basically like 2 months ago, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend, right? The weekly chart is not going to give you a very clear picture, but the moment you come down to the daily chart, you will understand what I mean, right? This is overall just inside a downtrend. Even on the 1-hourly chart, you are inside a downtrend. So if you've ever heard of the saying that the trend is your friend and you want to, you know, buy when the market's going up and sell when the market's going down, guess what? The correct thing to do right now is to be selling, not buying. A much better approach compared to buying the dip is to at least wait for confirmation that, hey, you know, on the daily chart, you have some sort of break of structure, some sort of changes to delivery. At that point, it is never too late to jump back into the ship. But what happens right now is that in your eagerness to kind of catch the bottom or to be able to predict the bottom, or maybe you hear some bull poster YouTuber say, oh yeah, $100K is going to be the support or $105K, they're convinced that that is going to be the bottom. Guess what? Every single person that bought the dip throughout this entire dump so far has lost a significant amount of money. Just the other day, I got messages of people losing $180,000, $75,000, $175,000. It breaks my heart to see it. But ultimately, what you need to understand is that there are 2 kind of possible scenarios that you could have inside the market. One is that you eventually end up being right, that, hey, you know, guys, I caught the bottom. The other side of that equation is like, hey guys, I made a shitload of money throughout this entire dip or throughout this entire pump. And so far, for those of you who have been following me, well, you guys are making money. I would like to think that we're one of the most profitable communities out there, or rather profitable YouTube channels, because I have been able to call literally every single major dump, and I've given you guys entries on how to take advantage of shorts so that you can make money. But not to go sidetracked, not to, you know, go off track here, just understand that do not buy the dip. As tempting as it may be when you hear other people talk about how, oh, $82,000 is going to be the bottom, oh, $88,000 is going to be the bottom, whatever. Nobody knows where the bottom is going to be. I have never claimed to know where the bottom is going to be. Me personally, I haven't even started buying into the dip yet. Just to give you an example, if anything, I can actually show you a tweet of like how my portfolio is looking like at the moment. And let's just say that I am heavily in stablecoins at the moment. So just understand that, and I am heavily in stablecoins at the moment, and that hasn't changed and is not likely to change until I get some sort of confirmation from the market that in fact it is going up and it is not going down anymore. Because I understand catching falling knives is A losing game, and there is no way to win. Just to give you an example, let's say you try to catch a falling knife, right? You buy in at $100K, boom. Next day you wake up, like, it feels good for like a solid 30 minutes, and the next day you wake up, it's $90K. Now you're down. So do you buy in more? Well, okay, time to throw in the rest of your money, and then boom, it goes to $80K. Bam, now you're out of money. Maybe you take a loss, like, what do you do? And in this entire process, going from $100K to $80K, you're losing sleep, you're Panicking, you're having you're damn near close to a heart attack. It's just not a particularly smart way to do it. Ultimately, one of the very famous quotes and something that I repeat quite often is that top pickers and bottom pickers usually end up becoming cotton pickers because this is a losing strategy, right? If you wait for the market to give you some sort of trend confirmation, that is going to be a much better way to approach it. And if you have been dealing with let's say you have suddenly lost a lot of money or maybe you've liquidated your account, I've also made a video recently. Just teaching you how you can bounce back from this instead of letting it compound into worse, or most importantly, just, yeah, how to recover your account. But anyways, it's time to now get into the, you know, lower timeframe stuff, and let's take a look at the daily chart. Now, first and foremost, I will have to, um, take a look at news because ideally we want to be trading on news days, and ideally we want to be avoiding non-news days. So as you can see here, throughout this week we have news on Tuesday, we have Wednesday, and then you have a couple of bank holidays on Thursday and Friday. So ideally the best days for this week is going to be Tuesday and And definitely not today. And you can kind of see that in the price action that we've been getting so far on the London session as well as the Asia session. For the most part, nothing has been happening. But just to go on to the daily bias, just understand that so far we have now tapped into this daily fair value gap, which means you are going to be looking for downside from this point onwards. Now from here, let's go into the lower time frame to see if we have some sort of area of interest that we can look for. And immediately right off the get-go, This is going to be a bearish resistance that price could potentially tap into later, especially if within the next 20 minutes, if you are able to close beneath this level, which is $87,000, this is going to become a new 1-hourly order block. So I don't know where I left off, but the SD card ended up running out of memory. I forgot to check it before filming. But otherwise, let's get back into what we were talking about before. Now, for those of you who are in VIP, and you know, for example, yesterday closed bullish, right? So technically today you should be going bullish, but The way that I'm just thinking about it is that, well, so far you are in very bearish order flow at the moment. And also this bullish close was on Sunday, which can be a little bit misleading, which is why usually I don't like to trade Mondays. It's just a little bit tougher to, you know, tell what is the true direction. Fun fact, actually, the system that I use heavily struggles on Mondays. Like right now I'm sitting at 129 wins out of the last 165 trades called. And I think the majority of the losses, the majority of the 36 losses that we have usually comes on Monday. as well as non-Newsdays. So if it's possible, avoid Monday. Also, you have seen it already, it's looking pretty choppy. But so yeah, even though the daily bias is supposed to be bullish, like just taking into account the overall kind of like conditions, I am going to make a call and say that it's going to be towards the bearish direction. However, once I go down into the 1-hour chart, I'm now seeing another reason why today we may be, you know, going long. Because over here you have relatively equal highs, which means that this could be a magnet for liquidity to target. This, however, does not mean that we are just going to target there. All right, let's get into the lower timeframe just to see if we can break this down a little bit more. First of all, we have just swept out this part, like this liquidity over here. So in the event that right now you start showing like 5-minute changes of delivery, specifically breaking above this level right here on the 5-minute chart, this could create some room for price to essentially flip this into a potential bullish order block and for price to go higher. Now, the specific timing that you are going to want to look for this is just between 7 AM to 10 AM New York. Today there is no news. So whatever happens, right? Let's say between 7 AM to 10 AM, this is something that happens. Then yeah, clearly we're going to target this area. But between 7 to 10 AM, if you start getting rejected from this one hourly bearish order block, then that is going to be the bearish call. Unfortunately, today is well. I've already kind of explained why Monday is a little bit lower probability and why it's harder for me usually to make an accurate proper call on Monday. It's not because the system sucks or that I suck. It's mainly market conditions. There's no news. There's no volatility. And in this case, we're just starting the week. To just. For the same reason why we do not trade the Asia session, because the Asia session tends to be an accumulation session while London is manipulation and New York is distribution. Monday tends to be the opening range, right? It's also kind of the accumulation range for the week. So Monday sets the tone. Tuesday, Wednesday, you may get some sort of manipulation, just like what we called last week with the high of the week. I literally made a video predicting that the high of the week was going to come here. And then in fact, it came here on Tuesday. The reason why that is the case is because Tuesday tends to be manipulation. Wednesday, you may get distribution, and then Thursday is when things start calming down, some sort of reversal, but things chill. Now, of course, that is just a rule of thumb. Price is not going to play out this way every single time, but just understand that that is the typical kind of profile for Mondays. And so even if you end up not trading today, that would actually be a wise choice because just like how, you know, crypto is, you know, people say crypto is a 24/7 market, but just because it is a 24/7 market doesn't mean that you're going to get opportunities 24/7. Most of the time, Saturdays are absolutely horrendous. If you try trading on Saturday, you are going to struggle mightily. If you try trading Saturdays, you are going to struggle mightily just because there is no volatility, there's no volume. And so even if you do everything right, even if you are the best technical analyst in the world, it's not going to help you if the market conditions are just terrible. When people say not every day is a trading day, not every week is a trading week, they truly mean it. And in terms of this week, we want to definitely prioritize most of our ammunition on Tuesday and Wednesday. And then potentially Thursday and Friday are going to be pretty chill as well. So now that you understand the call on Bitcoin, essentially it's just going to be depending on the reaction from this level right here. Of course, if price gets rejected from 87, you're going to start shorting. I will of course post this, like post whatever live trade that I take on X if I do take a live trade. Obviously, if you start breaking above this level during the kill zone, then the direction is going to be towards the long side. But hopefully you understand why today is a little bit harder to make an accurate or just a straightforward read on Bitcoin. Now going into Ethereum, let's just take a look at where we stand in In terms of the weekly chart, you're looking bearish. Of course, like why would I expect it to be different from Bitcoin? On Ethereum, you do not have any sort of fair value gap, and yesterday's daily bias is close bullish. In terms of the one hourly chart, I think you are en route to making a CSD. Now this changes a lot. Like in the event that you get this CSD, well clearly you're just going to trade this towards the downside because there is no imbalance. There is no relatively equal highs per se to fill in. And just understand, by the way, another scenario that could happen is that today and tomorrow we do pump because. Like the weekly power of 3 is pointing towards the downside, which means just like how last week I was able to predict the high of the week. It's just very simple, by the way. It's this concept is known as the power of 3. Essentially, you if you are expecting a bearish daily bias or bearish weekly bias, you want to look for price to go above the open, and that is where you look to sell so that you can capture the high of the candle and then the true expansion towards the downside. That so far is what I'm going to be looking at. Like we're not going to know this until at the very least tomorrow. So that is going to be the situation on Ethereum. Solana is the same. You are having a CSD already. So yeah, everything is looking pretty bearish so far. In terms of the daily bias, of course, everything's going to look bullish. But when you go into the lower timeframe, you will start realizing that, yeah, you're getting kind of like breaks of structure. And there's really only 2 ways that this is going to go. One is going to be an accumulation. You manipulate below the Asia lows and then you distribute to the upside. We've painted that out on Bitcoin in terms of Like taking out the relatively equal highs. And then the second scenario is that you break down, right? Accumulation, breakout, retrace, continuation, right? That's the only 2 kind of ways that this is gonna play out. And unfortunately, I don't really know. And unfortunately, I can't really tell right now because Monday, and also potentially because I'm filming this video before even 5:00 AM. Within the next couple of hours, I'm sure something is gonna happen and we're gonna have more information to act on this. But for now, thanks for watching this video and I'll see you tonight on X. Ciao ciao.
