Bitcoin: We Were Wrong About The Bottom Being In... More Dumps Incoming...

What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Uh, something serious just happened on Bitcoin. This is not good news, and I'm going to break down why in this video. I'm going to also give you the setup that allows you to take advantage of this so that instead of losing money, you actually jump into a short and actually make money. Now before we get into talking about today though, I think it's important to reflect back on yesterday as well because yesterday's trade was a little bit— um, I don't want to say it was a fail, but like there just wasn't any trade. So just to explain what I mean, this is the fair value gap that we marked out that we were anticipating price to retrace back into and then give some kind of a bounce. And we were anticipating this to happen anytime between 7:30 to the hour after news, which is 9:30. And in fact, we did retrace back into this fair value gap at 9:00 AM. Now, once we retraced into it though, we did not really give much of a bounce because like one of the key things that I wanted you guys to look out for is a change in state of delivery. And at the time when we first got into this area right here, um, we didn't get the change in state of delivery. Basically, like, the trade just happened. But basically, between the hours of 7:00 AM to 10:00 AM, which is the New York kill zone, nothing happened. And so yesterday was straight up a no trade. And so that puts our record still at 96 out of the last 122 trades that we've called here on this channel. And by the way, make sure you follow me on Twitter if you want, like, more up-to-date or, like, real-time kind of, like, updates to these trades. There's oftentimes, um, like I'm recording these videos at like 5:00 AM New York and the news and the move might not happen all the way until like 9:00 AM New York and I'm not able to make a new YouTube video, so I just update it on Twitter. And yesterday I did, uh, and basically it was just a no trade. And from the Twitter comments yesterday, I actually saw a few people that got stuck into a position and they were asking me like, hey, You know, what's going on? And I'll tell you what's going on. There's a reason why I always mention the timeframe between 7:00 AM and 10:00 AM. If the trade doesn't show up in between the timeframes that I'm talking about— in yesterday's case, my timeframe specifically was 7:30 AM to 9:30 AM— if the trade doesn't show up during that moment, like as in the liquidity only got— as in the fact that the fair value gap only got filled starting at 9:50, And so when the move actually happens, like you'll notice, like this is technically a CIST on the 5-minute chart, but it's already like 10:45, and that's outside of the kill zone, and that's already late morning during the New York. And one thing you need to understand about intraday trading is that ideally you want to be catching your moves early during the New York session rather than close to lunchtime, because once lunchtime actually happens, what you tend to end up getting instead is just really choppy price action. Basically, you know, nothing's happening, or you just get straight up kind of like a reversal. And that's super common for, you know, just intraday trading. Again, ideally catch your moves early on in the New York session and you're going to be doing fine. So for the ones that got caught up in a trade yesterday, just understand that yesterday was not one of those days where like a setup was even present. And so that's why I'm calling it a no trade. Um, and if you follow me on Twitter, you would have also seen the fact that I was like, hey, you know, uh, some— I think the move will just end up happening during tomorrow's Asia session instead. And this is exactly what we got. During the Asia session, but we finally got the dump, and now we have more price action to work with, which leads me on to the second point. And this is the exact thing that we were talking about yesterday, which is the market maker sell model. I told you guys yesterday that this very— like, it's not completely out of expectation for us to get a market maker sell model. The way I was able to identify that is that, A, this is some kind of a higher time frame, uh, order block right here. And en route to getting to this order block, We did one and two impulses towards the upside, and the way you confirm and the way you validate a market maker sell model—if you take a look here—ideally, you want to see this line getting broken through, and that's exactly what I gave you yesterday. That's exactly what I told you yesterday. If we get a close beneath $110,700, we're going to get a validation of a potential market maker sell model. And so it goes without saying that today's setup is going to be pretty clear. We're going to ideally look for a retracement back into this level right here. And also right now, as of the time that I'm recording this, you now have a fair value gap forming in between the levels of 110,250 to 110,850. So ideally, you're going to want to wait for price to get into this level, and then you're going to look for a short all the way down back below the original consolidation, which in this case is over here. And you can see, like, today is absolutely textbook because, you know, See this one right here? That's also what we got. Bam, bang, bang. So this is clean market maker sum model. Like, the setup is going to be super clear. This is not a setup that you want to fade because this does not happen very often, but when it does happen, this is a very powerful setup. Now, let's take a look at the daily chart though, just to understand the risk profile that we're dealing with today. Yesterday's candle actually closed bullish, which means technically today we're supposed to be looking for longs, but I'm going to let the market maker sum model actually take precedence here because Like, again, this is just way too textbook for me to completely just write it off and just not mention it to you guys. And so yeah, now that we understand what's going on on the higher time frame, uh, also one more thing to talk about is that this is technically a change in state of delivery. So now that the 1-hourly order flow is now bearish, we're going to look towards like bearish targets. Just to explain what I mean by that, there is always some kind of objective behind every move in the markets. Every pump is trying to either fill in some kind of higher time frame bearish PD array, or it's trying to take out some sort of buy-side liquidity. Vice versa, every dump is always trying to take out some side— some sort of sell-side liquidity, or just filling in some kind of higher time frame bullish PD array. And in this case, it's pretty clear that this is the liquidity that we're aiming for. So right now, based on how like current price is going, like it's pretty clear that it's going towards this liquidity level right here, and potentially even lower. And just to zoom out onto the daily chart to see if there are any potential lower liquidity points, we have this level right here and we have this level right here, followed by a potential fair value gap over there. Now don't get me wrong though, you are still overall bearish. Like, to the ones that are watching this video and you guys are like swing traders, or if you're longer timeframe traders, just understand that we are still bullish, right? That nothing has changed in the sense that this is still your bullish order block right now. Price could spend this week, next week, the third week, fourth week, heck Price could spend as long as it wants when it is order block right here until this gets broken through. On the weekly chart, like, there is no cause for concern. Price is still looking very bullish, and this is just going to be an accumulation zone. The struggle that we run into when it comes to these higher time frame accumulation zones is that, like, you know, we're humans, uh, we're designed for instant gratification, right? When we think of a move, we want the move to happen immediately. I would argue that this is probably one of the reasons, one of the top reasons why people struggle with trading so much. It's It's like, you know what to do, or like, you know what you want to see from the market, but then it's this struggle between like knowing what is going to happen versus like waiting for it to actually happen that, you know, a lot of problems arise. And the nature of a higher timeframe move is that, well, they're going to take time. Given the fact that we're looking at this chart right now from the weekly perspective means that chances are it's going to take a few weeks. This is just how it goes. Similarly, if you are looking at a daily kind of accumulation zone, you may expect it to take a few days up to a few weeks. on the weekly chart. Yeah. It's only normal that it takes a few weeks. So like, just don't panic right now. Price is still looking great in terms of overall order flow. It's still very bullish in terms of overall market structure. It's still very bullish. So no panic here. And until like basically $100,000 is breached, all good. And if you're wondering like, oh, what if I buy into here and like I lose— like that was the top of the bull market and I lose money? Guess what? There's always going to be that kind of risk no matter what you do. Like, whether you take a trade or not, whether, you know, all the cards seem to be stacked in your favor, it's never going to feel perfect. Like, never. And I say this as someone who's been doing this for like 6 years. I've been through like 3 bull and bear markets at this point. I came in at the top of the bear market and then I went— so I went through 1 bear market, 2 bear markets, and this is my second, like officially my second bull run that I've actually sat all my way through. And like, the truth is, there's always going to be like, you're never going to feel certain. Like, you just have to look at levels that have statistically a higher probability of, you know, giving you more return than the chance of you losing money. And you just pull the trigger. The truth of the matter is that back when Bitcoin was like at $17,000, it didn't feel great to buy into it. At least it didn't feel great for at least a few months. And then it started feeling pretty good. And over time, you feel even more amazing. Thing is, with long-term predictions, it's hard to tell. Like, the fact— and also another thing is that if you're feeling uncertain about, you know, buying into crypto at this point, guess what? That's perfectly normal because like for the past 2 years, basically like from 2023 all the way until now, you could have just bought every major dip and you would be printing money. Welcome to a bull market. Fact is, right now it's pretty late, right? Objectively speaking, compared to 2023, it is pretty late. But who knows? This bull market could continue on for much longer. And would you rather, you know, be afraid and, you know, to take the risk thinking that, oh, you know, the bull market's over when all of the market structure and all of the order flow is still intact? Or are you going to be, all right, you know, I'm just going to take a risk. The bull market could go on like another 3, 4 months, maybe 6 months. Uh, price is going to go exponentially high from here, and I would rather take a calculated risk, you know, small risk here for a potentially big reward. Would you rather take that, or would you rather be scared? I leave that up to you. But anyways, now that the, you know, kind of like higher time frame stuff is over, Let's hop into the lower timeframes just to, you know, see how we're going to play this. So again, we already have a fair value gap over here. It's very unlikely that we're going to retrace all the way back up here to this bearish order block right here. So I'm just going to hop into the 5-minute chart to see if there are any other levels that we may have missed. So London so far has been leading the move in the sense that London has been pretty volatile. And I guess another, you know, potential resistance level that you can look at is starting at 109,900. Essentially, the playbook today is super simple, guys. Like, either you retrace into here, you retrace into here. Um, as long as you get some kind of 5-minute change in state of delivery, in the sense that, um, like for example here, this is a bullish order block, price goes up, this becomes a new bullish order block, price goes up, uh, until the point where bullish order blocks get disrespected. In this case, this bullish order block here gets disrespected, uh, price is now in bearish order flow. Once you're in bearish order flow, you anticipate price to respect bearish, you know, order blocks and bearish PDAs. And in this case, you are very much in bearish order flow. If you were to come all the way up here it's chances are that within this move here you're going to be in bullish order flow. And so ideally you want to wait for price to start disrespecting the bullish order blocks, start respecting the bearish order blocks and bearish fair value gaps. Once that happens, you put your entry, put your entry there, you put your stop there, and your target to R, and it's going to be an easy time trading. Besides that, we're also going to take a look at news because today we have news at 8:30 AM. So ideally you want to look for that retracement here to happen somewhere between the hours of 7:30 AM to 9:30 AM, which is an hour before news and an hour after news. And so if that happens and you get that changes delivery within that time frame, then boom, you're going to have a very high probability trade on your hands. And as usual, I will definitely update this on my Twitter as we go, so feel free to follow me at _TheArtOfCrypto. I will— I just keep you guys posted. Also, this is where I'm posting most of my altcoin trades and altcoin Just ideas in general. But anyways, if you've watched this channel for a while and you like what you see, you see that this, you know, this actually works. And if you would like my help to help you just learn the system for yourself, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. Otherwise, I'll see you guys in the next one. Have a great weekend. Bye-bye.