In this video Roman Ceccardi delivers a weekly market outlook for Bitcoin, beginning with a promotional plug for his Blueprint trading program, citing a student’s $100K challenge win as proof of the system’s repeatability. He then outlines a bullish weekly bias based on the previous week’s candle close, identifying key weekly support zones such as a fair‑value gap and an order block that could serve as entry points if price dips below the weekly open. Ceccardi stresses the importance of news days, noting that non‑news Mondays historically yield lower win rates for Bitcoin, and recommends halving risk and demanding an extra confirmation on such days. He contrasts Bitcoin’s single‑chart dynamics with forex’s multiple independent pairs, suggesting traders diversify into forex for more frequent opportunities. Moving to the daily and hourly charts, he observes bearish order flow, a bearish CISD, and multiple fair‑value gaps, concluding that today’s likely trade direction is short but may end up being a no‑trade day due to low‑probability conditions. He provides tentative price targets around $70,300‑$70,400 and outlines possible scenarios for the rest of the week, emphasizing that tomorrow’s news day could clarify the market direction. Throughout, he repeatedly reminds viewers that the Blueprint bootcamp closes soon and encourages enrollment, citing several successful students as evidence of the program’s efficacy.
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What's good guys, welcome back to another video. It's a new week, that means new opportunities in the market. Now I'm going to get into the Bitcoin kind of weekly setup, I'm going to get into the daily setup, but before we get into it, like, huge shout out to Dylan for passing a— well, I think this is his 4th account at this point. He managed to pass a $100K challenge in 3 days. Now the reason why I shout out Dylan, and Dylan, shout out to you if you're watching, is that this is something that can happen the moment you have a repeatable and a profitable system. which is exactly what Blueprint was built to install, right? You're tapping into the exact system that has helped me, Dylan, and countless other people get multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of funding and to basically just be able to go full-time into trading. Like, if you can make $10K in 3 days, you know, you would have options, right? Blueprint closes in 6 days. And if you've been thinking about it, if you're on the fence about it, just think of this one thing, right? If you've been trying to make trading work for many, many months in a row and you still haven't figured it out yet, maybe you need to try a different type of approach, right? And hey, worst case, if you don't like it, there's a 7-day full money-back guarantee. And so yeah, you know, there's not really much risk. But anyways, it's time to get into the video now. So starting this off on the weekly chart, because this is a new week on Bitcoin, we're looking at a bullish trade, right? Because the weekly bias is bullish. Now, just to show you how the weekly bias last week ended up playing out, we started Monday going below the daily— the weekly open. Tuesday, we were still trading slightly below the weekly open. And then ultimately, you gave a true expansion towards the upside. This is how you use weekly and daily biases, which is, you know, based on the previous candle close, you have a buys. So this week we are bullish, which means that anytime we go below the weekly open, that is an opportunity for us to get into buys below the kind of like open of the week, which means that chances are the bottom of the week, right, the low of the week is going to come at, you know, a couple of key levels, right? The first of which is that fair value gap over there. The second of which is this order block over here, right? In the event that the weekly open just dips below, right, Monday, Tuesday, if you dip below, that gives you an opportunity to buy low and then potentially to sell high as we get into that true weekly expansion. Now, second thing to keep in mind is news. Super important that we a look at news because news kind of tells us what are the highest probability trading days of the week. Now, first of all, starting things off on Monday, today's a non-news day, so chances are we're not going to get the best trades today. And this applies especially a lot to Bitcoin as well because historically speaking, I've lost personally the majority of my trades on non-news Mondays because oftentimes what I see personally is the price action will be aligning perfectly, but because it's a non-news Monday and things are just kind of setting up for the rest of the week, Like even though everything in price action aligns, it just ends up not playing out, right? So same exact setup, but much lower win rate on Mondays. And this is just a data point that I have. So this doesn't mean that we cannot trade today. It just means that because the probability of the day itself is lower compared to days like Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Thursdays, especially compared to Newsdays, then we're going to do something about it, right? To adapt to these lower probability conditions. And that something is potentially like whatever trades that we take, we go half risk instead of full risk. And secondly, we wait for more confirmations, right? If usually we wait for like six confirmations minimum, maybe this time around we wait for seven before we even dive into a trade. Right? That is how you adapt to like slightly lower probability conditions, which definitely looks to be the case today. And it's going to become even more apparent the moment we go into the lower time frames on the Bitcoin chart. But before that, like understand that there is really only one amazing trading day this week at the very least with Bitcoin. Like I'm not saying that moves are not going to happen on you know non-newsdays, but I'm just saying like chances are they're less likely to happen. And this is one. That's the moment that you would be really happy to have access to something like forex where you have, you know, for example, Dylan made an absolute killing on gold today in the Asia session. That's not something you can realistically say for Bitcoin because throughout the entire day so far, Bitcoin has been chopping around and Asia session or not, it's just not really been making many moves. Meanwhile, you look at gold and, you know, there's been a strong pump and it's slowly but surely just kind of edging its way towards the upside, right? At least there's something to take there. And the beautiful thing about forex is that you have, you know, most of your different forex charts are going to move independently of each other. Meaning, like, for example, if you take a look at Bitcoin and then you take a look at Ethereum, if Bitcoin ends up dumping, Ethereum is going to follow, right? So you're essentially looking at the same chart, right? There's no difference, just different kind of like packaging, like you have a different brand name. But with forex, you're actually looking at independent charts, right? So in times like this where we do not really have many catalysts for volatility, it's a good idea to have different options to look at so that instead of looking at one opportunity daily, you could potentially have 5 to 10. Right? So just a note for you, to anyone that is thinking about, you know, that's kind of on the fence about forex. It's a lot less difficult than you would think. And like, yeah, it's honestly not that complicated. But just to get back to the video, let's take a look at the daily chart again. Like, I'm not saying that price will definitely come down to this order block, price will definitely come down here. I'm not even saying that price will 100% bounce, right? The bias just acts as a guide where, you know, when you're trading in line with, you know, the direction of the last weekly candle, it's been proven that we have 70 to 75% of the time we do tend to go continue in that direction, right? But then there is that 25% of the time where, you know, things start to reverse, right? Like if you take a look at the weekly chart, for example, well, following this weekly candle right here, we should have been looking for shorts. Eventually at some point price will reverse. But you can see that the majority of the time, as long as we follow that trend, like we're going to be right more often than wrong. It's just we cannot predict exactly when it will be wrong. So in order to get more data on that, it's time to go into the lower timeframes just to see how things are developing. So in terms of the lower timeframe so far, like what I can see, like something that immediately jumps out is the fact that In terms of the hourly chart right now, we are incredibly bearish in the sense that not only have we gotten a bearish CISD, but clearly price is reaching for some sort of lower level at the moment. You have relatively equal lows over here right before some sort of daily key level. So chances are the trade setup for today is likely going to be towards the short side. But chances are, if I'm being honest, the trade setup for today is likely going to be no trade just because of how, again, Mondays is kind of like opening range of the week. Just like how we don't trade Asia session on Bitcoin because Asia tends to set up for London and then London kind of sets up for New York. Same thing here. Ideally, if we can wait until the London session of the week, which means Tuesdays and Wednesdays, perfect, right? They're going to be much higher probability. So if I'm going to give you my honest opinion, chances are it's going to be no trade today. But like just taking a look at how price is currently setting up on the 1-hourly, again, you're already in bearish order flow. In terms of the daily, you technically also have a bearish change in state of delivery. So, so far you have both the daily and the hourly looking kind of bearish at the moment. So yeah, I do think that the trade for today is going to be a bearish trade. Now, is it going to come here on this PD array where you retrace into it and go down? Likely, pretty likely actually. But otherwise, like that's probably the only one that I can see. Like by the time you watch this video, if you know price is continuing to just make bearish momentum, then just feel free to trade that lower because there is no guarantee that price is just going to stop at this daily fair value gap over here. Could even go lower. In fact, let me take a look at the hourly chart to see if it could potentially go lower. And yeah, you know, you have quite a lot of imbalance. You have another fair value gap. You have another fair value gap. You have an entire order block over here. So yeah, you could go a whole lot lower than where price currently is right now. And just taking a look at the way that the daily and the hourly are kind of setting up at the moment doesn't look particularly bullish. But still, don't— like, again, anywhere beyond this point, I can't give you a guarantee. It does look like there is a very high chance that you are going to reach, you know, $70,300, like $70,400 today. But any lower than that, I can't give you any sort of guarantee. In fact, any lower than that, I can't really give you much of a guarantee because at that point, you can also make the argument that, okay, you have a bullish order block over here and Right now, price is in a range low and potentially a range high. Now you've swept out the range highs, so now you're going to go for the range lows. Once you go fill in the range lows, you're going to come into support. Once you sweep the range lows, come into support, this could be the low of the week, kind of like what I discussed with the weekly bias earlier. And the rest of the week could potentially look like that. And the only way that we're going to find out if that is going to be the case or not is to wait until tomorrow, which is a news day, which is again, at that point, you either have filled this and started to, you know, kind of head it towards the upside, at which point tomorrow is going to be a super easy trade, or Not right. You're going to feel this and you're going to kind of get rejected, and then tomorrow is also going to be a much easier trade. But still, if you're looking to trade today, the direction is probably going to be downside, and I will try to keep you guys posted on X if I do see any trade setups. But again, chances are today is going to be a no trade day for reasons that I've already explained. But outside of that, like remember, bootcamp closes literally this weekend. So if you're thinking about it, join in. But just trust me when I say that there is a reason why I'm confident this can solve your trading issues, right? Because you're either not working with a proper system or there's something missing. And you don't know what that is. And oftentimes the moment you fix either one of these bottlenecks is when things start shooting up immediately. As based on what you've seen from Dylan, you've seen it from Webber, you've seen it from Vincent, you've seen it from Ehsan, you've seen it from Srikanth, you've seen it— like, I could go on and on, but you get the idea. Otherwise, I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao.
