Bitcoin: We're Setting Up For A BIG Move

What's up guys, welcome back to another video. Whatever that we talked about yesterday pretty much happened in the sense that, you know, on the higher time frame we had a reason to believe that things were going down, but, um, we were still looking for a long side trade on an intraday basis. If you guys also remembered what I said about Ethereum in terms of like, you know, if I had a choice between Ethereum and Bitcoin, I would probably choose to go long on Ethereum. And ultimately that ended up being the correct choice because this was much stronger, and overall the setup basically played out, right? This was the 1-hourly fair value gap, around the New York kill zone, you— when you get your change of state of delivery, price ultimately ended up going to the upside. The only problem was that most of the upside move actually came after the New York kill zone. And that was pretty much the same story with Bitcoin as well, where, you know, throughout the New York session, you didn't really get much of a setup. So I'm just going to calculate this as a no trade because most of the movement actually came after the New York session. And if you guys remember the exact conditions that I gave you yesterday, it was to look for a bullish change in state of delivery around the hours of 7 AM to 10 AM. That did not happen. And so that was just, yeah, this was just not the conditions present for the setup to happen. Now, if you were trading later during the New York session and if you managed to catch it, congratulations. But strictly speaking, from the perspective of the system that we are using here to achieve like an 80% win rate over the last 300 days, yeah, this is just a no trade, right? This is the importance of waiting for all of these confirmation signals. And the reason why I always emphasize these confirmation signals and why you have to be hesitant with waiting for these confirmation signals is that it's so that you can, you know, avoid getting into just false signals, right? Or as one of my students in boot camp would like to say, uh, you don't want to be seeing ghosts. And so yeah, but anyways, yesterday was Monday. We had clear reasons to believe that it was not going to be one of the best trading days out there. In fact, it wasn't going to be a good trading day either. The fact that you're getting rejected from this daily fair value gap, we were already anticipating things to go down. So yeah, no trade is just— it's not much of a surprise. Now today though is going to be potentially a different story. Now to kick things off first, we are still looking to trade on ideally Wednesday because this is when we're getting the federal funds rate and as well as just a whole bunch of other news as we go later on throughout the week. So ideally today is still not going to be one of those A+ trading days. In fact, today may not even be the best trading day, but there is still a setup present here. Just take a look at the daily bias. We are bearish of course, But now you are into this bullish fair value gap right here. And in terms of the weekly bias, because last week closed bullish, we are in fact looking for a bullish move throughout the rest of this week. And just like what I mentioned yesterday, it's perfectly normal for Monday, Tuesday to dip below the weekly open, right? Just to give you an example, last week, if you were bullish, you ideally want to be taking a long position underneath the weekly open so that you can ride the position to above the weekly open. And this week so far, we're getting that, right? We're currently trading underneath the weekly open. And so this gives us an opportunity to dive into a trade towards the long side, taking advantage of the weekly power of 3. And so that is still intact. It's just we don't know when the pump is going to begin. So starting things off, we are here at this key level. So today we could potentially anticipate some sort of an upside move, although yesterday's daily candle closed bearish, which means today we are actually supposed to be looking for a short trade, which I'm going to start breaking down in this, you know, 1-hourly section here. So once we're coming down into the 1-hourly chart, we can see that we had a heads and shoulders pattern, you know, kind of play out yesterday. Now if you just kind of mark it out from, you know, the neckline, we can see that, yeah, we've mostly played out this heads and shoulders pattern. And so right now there are only really 2 kind of like plays that are possible here. Let me just remove everything so that I don't clog up the chart too much. A is going to be through this fair value gap right here on the bearish side of things, and B is going to be a potential bullish order block play. So right here, if you get a candle close above, this is going to become a bullish order block. So In the event that you get a candle close above— what is this— 114,400, which we are most likely going to get the candle close, in fact, potentially even in the next couple of minutes, this is going to become potentially a bullish order block. The only problem is that in terms of daily bias, we are bearish, which means ideally we should be looking for a trade into the fair value gap for price to continue downwards. And we'll see if the lower timeframe gives us a different take on things. So far, the Asia session has been swept during the London session. So if you were trading the London session, you could have taken advantage of this manipulation move. To trade towards the upside. Now we're about to come back into the Asia high plus this fair value gap. So that, like, as much as I would like to say, yeah, today we're going to go long because of, you know, price filling in this daily fair value gap that I marked out just now, there is a difference between, you know, what we think should happen versus what the system is actually telling us to do, right? This is part of what makes trading so difficult. You have to, you know, trust the system. The proof is kind of in the pudding here because over the last 300 days we have won Many more trades than we have lost because we follow the system. Now, we may not like it. You know, I don't like the fact that I'm— I have to look for a short today. But at the end of the day, if we're looking to make money, then you trust the system, especially if it's a proven profitable system. The call today is still going to be towards the downside, but I'm going to give you the invalidation kind of like criteria where you can potentially start looking for a long. And I'll actually give you my game plan as well as to how I would approach taking a long trade. Before I get into that though, Guys, we are going to launch another masterclass in a month from now. This masterclass, I'm going to actually break down this exact system that you've been watching and listening to over the course of the last 8 months. If you would like to get early access to it, sign up to the newsletter. It's the first link in the description box below. When the link goes live where you can sign up for this free masterclass, it will be sent to the newsletter first. So yeah, just sign up so you can secure your spot. But otherwise, getting into the lower time frame stuff, again, the ideal trading time is going to be 7 to 10 AM. If you see something like this happen at around the hours of the New York Kill Zone, then this is going to be the trade that you want to take. Again, make sure that you have a bearish change state of delivery on the lower timeframe during that time window before you dive into it. If you do not get these confirmation signals, it means that we're going to be having that invalidation scenario, which is price may, you know, come into the fair value gap, come into this one, and you start showing bullish changes state of delivery. Then most likely this bullish order block is going to be the one that is respected instead. Now, am I going to be taking straight? No, because one of the key criteria within my system is that we need timeframe alignment, which means we're going to take a long. We want the 5-minute chart to point towards the upside. We want the daily chart to be pointing towards the upside. We also want the 1-hourly chart to be pointing towards the upside. At the moment, the daily chart, in terms of the daily bias, is pointing towards the downside so far. In terms of the 1-hourly chart, we are also in a state of bearish order flow at the moment where this was the bearish chase delivery. So right now, in the event that you come back here, right, it's just again following the system. We are looking for downside, which means that even if this were to happen, it's never too late to jump into a long tomorrow, especially if we get a bullish daily candle close today. It means that you're most likely going to leave behind some sort of fair value gap, some sort of order block where tomorrow we can jump into this and take advantage of that. When people say that, you know, not every day is a trading day, not every week is trading week, this is prime example of that. Right? As much as you know, we kind of mapped out the scenarios for yesterday on as well, at least on Bitcoin. Like Ethereum, you did get some kind of movement, but on Bitcoin, like as much if we mapped everything out, ultimately the you know confirmation criteria just didn't happen. That's the nature of non-news days. Take a look at Monday. There was no news. Today is also a non-news day. So I wouldn't be surprised if today is also going to be slightly choppy, just like what we got yesterday. But still, like the following the system, you still have a possible trade here, which is towards the short side. If you can avoid trading today. That's what I would do. But, um, later on during the New York session, I will be hopping onto Twitter just to call some live trades if I do get into any. Uh, if I don't get into any, I'll also drop an update for you guys just on Twitter. So feel free to follow me there because obviously I don't have time to, you know, make another video, edit it, and post it, you know, throughout the day. But anyways, let's go into Ethereum now to see if we can, you know, potentially have a better setup. So in terms of the daily chart, we also closed bearish, but again, this is a bullish fair value gap right here that we're trading into. Does not mean that we're just going to go long today though, because in terms of the 1-hour chart, you are also in a pretty bearish state. At the moment, you have 2 bearish PD arrays to work from. One is this one right here and this bearish order block. And the second one is going to be this bearish fair value gap. In the event that you trade into either one of these levels, then at 7 to 10 AM, and you get the bearish changes at delivery, that's going to be what you want to look for to go towards the downside. So in terms of Ethereum, this is painting a much clearer picture pointing towards the short side. Whereas on Bitcoin, we could have some sort of an argument that, you know, price could potentially go to the upside. But yeah, Ethereum is so much more clear. Secondly, we have these relatively equal lows here that we can pay attention to. Relatively equal lows, by the way, is just like, think of them as like magnets for price to go towards. Just because when you have relatively equal lows and relatively equal highs, there are going to be a lot of traders who, in the event that price gets into either one of these levels, they're going to be stopped out. And they're going to be stopped out at a very bad price. Imagine if you were going long and you get stopped out here. Guess what? You just ended up selling low. And if you know anything about you making money in the markets, ideally you want to be buying low and selling high, not selling low. And yeah, if you're short and you get stopped out, well, you're going to be buying high. So there's a lot of interest for the market makers to, you know, kind of drive price to these areas and then tap everybody out and then expand heavily towards the upside. At least that's the theory for now, right? We haven't gotten that confirmation yet. Today is going to change everything. For example, if today just, you know, you break above this order block, you break above this fair value gap, and you just start trading higher, then yeah, obviously tomorrow we're just going to start diving into longs, right? We're not going to speculate that, oh yeah, yeah, this liquidity has to be taken. No, it doesn't. Like, ultimately, we as traders, we need to trade whatever the market is telling us, not what we want to see from the charts. So in terms of Ethereum today, we're also going to be trading towards the short side, and the setup is very similar. Right now, on session, you're about to trade above the Asia high. So yeah, Fair value gap, look for a bearish change in state of delivery, and that's going to be an easy setup. This is Solana. Let's take a look here. Solana also closed bearish, but it is quite a bit more bullish compared to Ethereum and Bitcoin because it's actually pumping quite aggressively at the moment. Let's take a look at the 1-hour chart, and boom, like, Solana is a different story because now you have bullish change in state of delivery. Sure, you may still have these relative equal lows here, but now you have a solid setup towards the long side where you could potentially look for price to come back into this order block. 7 to 10 AM, Within the order block, you also have another, you know, smaller order block right here, plus a bullish fair value gap. In the event that you come back here, I think the call for Solana is going to be towards the long side. The only caveat, the only kind of warning that I would give you in regards to Solana is that if Bitcoin dumps, Solana is going to dump as well. So just have your wits about you if you go for a long. This is a very easy target at $205. But if you see the market start shifting towards the downside, especially if you start seeing Bitcoin put in that bearish scenario that I gave you just now, then yeah, you know, maybe consider stopping your position out at breakeven or taking a small loss. Or closing it out for a small profit rather than risking, you know, price potentially dumping from that point onwards. But yeah, setup for today is a little bit clearer compared to yesterday, but still, but ideally we're still going to be wanting to, you know, hold on to our ammunition and trade tomorrow instead of today. But otherwise, yeah, I'm going to make an update later on Twitter just to share my thoughts on what scenario is more likely and what I'm personally going to be doing. But otherwise, yeah, see you guys tomorrow. Time to hit the gym.