In this video Roman Ceccardi examines Bitcoin’s recent price decline and asks whether the downtrend is over. He starts by noting the lack of news and then analyzes the weekly chart, which closed slightly bearish but still shows a bullish higher‑timeframe bias anchored by a recent order block around $108k and a daily CSD that created a new support zone near $112k. He explains that as long as price stays above the $108k‑$110k area, the bullish outlook holds, supported by upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts that should benefit risk‑on assets like Bitcoin. Ceccardi then shifts to intraday considerations, describing today’s market as technically bearish with low‑probability trade setups. He outlines two possible short‑term strategies: (1) a trade targeting a fair‑value gap around $113k with a 2R profit target and reduced risk, and (2) a short based on a newly formed bearish order block that aligns with a 1‑hour block. He emphasizes tight risk management, early profit taking, and recommends waiting for news‑driven days (Tuesday‑Thursday) for higher‑probability trades. Timing is crucial: look for a sweep between 7 AM‑10 AM and a 5‑minute change of state to the downside. Finally, he mentions personal logistics (travel to Hong Kong, no video tomorrow) and directs viewers to his Twitter @_TheArtOfCrypto for live updates. The overall message is that while today may be a down/choppy day, the higher‑timeframe remains bullish, and traders should prepare for multiple scenarios rather than predict outcomes.
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What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Even though we had quite a lot of news events and some really big news events last week, the magnitude of the move itself was not huge until today. So today Bitcoin has finally started dumping. Just going to answer the question real quick, is this over? Like, what is the top? Are we going to go down from here on out? Where are we in the higher time frame? As well as give you the lower time frame trade setup. So that sounds interesting to you, let's dive right into it. First things first, we do not have any sort of news on today, so potentially the intraday setup for today's It's not going to be amazing, but it's still going to be doable. I'm going to give you the setup. First things first though, let's kick things off on the weekly chart. And last week we almost closed bullish, but somehow we closed bearish indeed. But somehow we closed bearish instead. If we take a look at other charts, for example, take a look at Binance spot, potentially Bybit futures, we can see that it's mainly the same story in the sense that it closed bearish. So in that case, right, our bear— like, our weekly bias for this week is actually supposed to be bearish. Funnily enough, but like overall, we are still very bullish in the sense that if you take a look at the higher timeframe, this is again the order block that managed to get filled like a couple of weeks ago and price started pumping from that point onwards. And until this order block is breached, basically until you retest like the $108,000 area, you are still bullish until otherwise proven. And this can be like further cemented on the daily chart where we've already gotten a CSD. On this candle right here on the daily chart last Thursday. And that means that now this entire area here becomes your new level of support. And today we have just tapped into that level of support starting at $112,000. So if things go the way that we wanted to, then price is supposed to hold this level, or at least hold this box, unlikely to be retesting this area. However, that changes if you break below this box and you tap $110,000. Then it may start to get a bit concerning. But until that happens, I think we're still going to look for a bullish opportunity for this week just because of where we stand in the higher time frame. I know that we closed bearish, but it was just a very slight bearish close. And overall, again, we have lots of reasons to believe that we are bullish, including but not limited to the fact that we have just gotten the first of 3 rate cuts that are scheduled for the remainder of this year. For those of you who are not familiar with this, just understand that Bitcoin is known as a risk-on asset. In fact, so is all of crypto. It is known as a risk-on asset, and Risk-on assets are speculative by nature, which means it's not necessary for survival. I want you to think of it this way, and the thing you need to understand about these speculative assets is that they thrive when interest rates are low because then there is a surplus of just excess money that is flowing through the economy. And when there is extra money that people don't know what to do with, well, guess what? They speculate. This is the exact thing that we saw back in 2020 with the COVID speculation boom. And for Bitcoin to continue to go up, you need interest rates to come down. So far, the interest rates for the United States dollar has been one of the highest, and that is putting it alongside the Aussie dollar. It's putting it alongside the Great British pound, and basically all of the other major currencies have already reduced interest rates except for the United States dollar. And last Wednesday, we just started doing that, and there are two more rate cuts projected to come for the rest of the year. And so this already sets the tone for kind of what to expect, at least from a macroeconomic kind of standpoint, where. You can we can expect the next three months to be pretty bullish for Bitcoin, and so with all of that said, right on the weekly chart you are still looking pretty good. Again, on the daily chart, this is the level of support that you want to look for. In fact, you can even argue that this entire block right here is the level of support. So we're already in that support level, and since we are bullish for the week, one thing you need to understand is power of three. Whenever you are bullish on a certain candle, you want to look for an opportunity to buy underneath that candle open so that you can sell once you get the true expansion before the candle closes. And given that we are bullish on the week, it means that this is the weekly open. Right now we are tapping below the weekly open, and that will give us an opportunity to buy low into the low of the week, and then we're going to be able to sell high into the high of the week. So that setup is going to be pretty straightforward. So that's my thesis at the moment. And of course, this changes if we start tapping like $110,000, which I cannot predict if we are going to tap it or not. All I can say is that as a trader, what we do is not prediction, but rather preparing for different scenarios and then just simply reading and reacting to them when they do happen. So, so far, like, we're still looking very bearish. And so, like, technically the trade setup for today is supposed to be bearish. But again, like, higher timeframe-wise, we're actually looking for this area to be potential support. So if I have to, like, give you my honest answer, the trade setup for today, at least from the intraday perspective, is going to be just no trade because there are going to be better days to trade later on down the week. Just to give you an example, I'm going to pull up some news. Today you have no news, but On Tuesday and Thursday and Wednesday, you're going to have some news, and those are going to be much higher probability trading days. The way that I always explain, like, why news is so important and why we want to be trading on news days is that in trading, you're always dealing with so many different variables, from the direction of price to how far is it going to go. And then you have to also, you know, think about timing, right? When is it going to happen? How long is the move going to last? And the beautiful thing about news days and the beautiful thing about news in general Is that you pretty much know that something is going to happen at Tuesday at 8:30 AM. You just need to figure out if it's going to go up, down, left, right, or like how far are they going to go. So it removes a variable and it makes your job easier. So that kind of drives home the point of how not every day is a trading day, and I don't think that today is going to be a trading day. Again, we are technically bearish, but we also have reasons to believe that we can be bullish. But if you still want to trade today, like I'm not just going to tell you don't trade, but I can still give you a trade based on the system that we've used to achieve a public track record of 80% win rate over the last 7 months. And that's going to be the fact that you have a fair value gap right here starting at 113,000. In the event that you retrace into the fair value gap, you can look for a trade 2R, like just for 2Rs down below. The reason why I'm recommending 2R is because today's market condition, again as explained, is not the best. Now you can still take a trade, but I would highly recommend taking your profit a little bit sooner, slash going half risk perhaps. You just want to play much safer because of the uncertain market conditions, right? We always take this into account. So That's going to be setup number 1, retracing and then down. Setup number 2 is the fact that with this candle closure here 2 minutes ago, this is now your bearish order block, which means basically you're going to retrace back into this 5-minute order block right here, which also aligns with the 1-hourly order block, and then you're going to start heading lower. Again, the setup is going to be pretty straightforward. You're just going to be looking for a short, taking your profit at 2R. Now, as for which one of this is more likely, I don't know. That's the truth. Again, it's not my job as a trader to be predicting things, but it's my job as a trader to prepare for whatever scenarios are likely to happen and then simply reading and reacting when the timing comes. Which leads me on to the next point: what time you should be looking for this trade setup. Well, you're going to want to look for a sweep anywhere between 7 AM to 10 AM and then for a 5-minute change of state delivery towards the downside. In fact, right now, as of the time I'm recording this, it's 6 AM. So yeah, between 7 to 8, if you get a sweep and you start seeing Indications that it's going to go to the downside. That's going to be pretty straightforward. Otherwise, between seven to ten a.m., just want to want to look for this to happen. Whenever you guys watch this video, just understand again not the highest quality trade setup. Again, just understand that while the trade setup looks pretty easy, the market condition does not at least it does not scream high probability. So me personally, I'm going to be sitting this one out. I'm about to head for basketball. I do need to pack as well because I will be flying back to Hong Kong tomorrow. That said. Expect there to be no video tomorrow because I'm very likely going to be on the plane at the usual time that I'm recording these videos. And so I'm going to see you guys on Wednesday where I have the news day. And again, I've kind of already given you the weekly kind of outlook. So you should theoretically be prepared for what to look for throughout the rest of this week. Again, this is the higher timeframe level. Today is probably going to be down/chop, but tomorrow you can potentially look for some kind of an upside move. Otherwise, like I will keep you guys updated on Twitter. At _TheArtOfCrypto. That's where I'm posting any live trades slash any ideas about altcoins anyways. So if you want, feel free to follow me there. But otherwise, guys, have a great rest of the day and I will see you guys on Wednesday. Ciao ciao!
