Bitcoin Will Head Lower, Is It Time To SELL EVERYTHING!?

What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. The editor is taking a little leave today as well as on Monday, so expect this video to be, well, just unedited. I'm going to record it in one take, as I usually do actually. But yeah, otherwise let's get into it. Yesterday we called a dump, like even though the system was kind of like pointing towards the upside. Yesterday was one of the situations where For lack of better words, I just used my judgment and it ended up being the correct call. So yesterday is the 91st win of the last 114 videos, or rather 114 calls that I've made on YouTube. And yeah, just going to try to, you know, maintain this streak moving forward. And I'm going to try to do the same today by making the right call. So in terms of the weekly chart, we have already taken out the objective that we were looking at. So, like, even if price were to just continue retracing from this point onwards, like, we've already completed the objective. So the weekly bias is already, you know, played out, which is exactly what I was talking about from the start of the week. We would expect a new all-time high sometime this week. It already happened yesterday. And so at the very moment, like, even on the lower timeframes, from what I can see, it's looking pretty bearish so far. So just be aware that, like, today's call is probably going to be towards the downside. As much as I Like, me as a crypto bro would love to have some kind of, you know, just bullishness. The fact of the matter is that, you know, after every new all-time high or like after every like major pump, it's very normal to go through some kind of a retracement. If you just take a look at when you formed this new previous all-time high, you quite literally went for a retracement from the 14th of July all the way down till like the 2nd of August, right? So that's a retracement period that lasted for a couple of weeks. Over here, you formed this new all-time high, and you were basically retracing from the 22nd of May pretty much all the way till the 7th of July. So that's about a month and a half. And you can go through each and every single major time where you take out some kind of major high, you do go through retracement. Am I saying that the pump is going to, you know, finish? Absolutely not. In terms of the higher timeframe, you're still looking amazing, right? You have higher lows, higher highs, like boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. Like overall, your bullish market structure on the higher timeframe is very much intact, and there's nothing to be concerned about. If anything, like right now you're kind of retracing back into this bullish order block right here, at least from the higher timeframes. I'm going to break that down later though, so don't worry about this. But just understand that as long as this low here is not taken out, this low being $112,000, as long as this is not taken out, you're very much still intact. bullish, like bull-wise. And even if this is taken out, as long as you don't close below it, like let's say you get a wick and then price starts to reverse, that's also a great sign. Once you take out the highs, you take out the lows. That's just how the market moves. For those of you who don't know, especially if you're new to like just smart money trading or like liquidity concepts in general, the markets always have some kind of objective whenever you're going for any type of movement. When you're trying to go to the upside, you are trying to aim for what we like to say buy side liquidity. This is known as— just think of it as a lot of people placing their stop losses above here, slash people that are interested to buy once you get, you know, kind of like a breakout. And so what you get with both of those parties is just people that are willing to buy at a very high price. If you're going short and you get stopped out here, you are essentially market buying. If you buy the breakout, you are also market buying. And so you have a huge party of just willing buyers at high prices, which the smart money and, you know, just The big funds, they will take advantage of this because guess what happens, or rather, guess what's needed in order to make money in the market? You buy low, you sell high, not the other way around. And when we say objective, this is what we mean. So at the moment, now that the price, like now that the market seems to start, seems to be starting to head towards the downside, we just need to think to ourselves, okay, is there like, what's the objective here? Is it more of just a retracement? Which based on market structure at the moment seems like it, or are we potentially going for sell-side liquidity, which is stop losses below here? Because essentially anyone who went long at any point here would be in profit or like in some kind of breakeven. And much like most retail traders, they don't really take profits, or rather they don't have a set system on how to take profits. And so maybe they're still opening, or rather maybe their positions are still open here. And price is currently just going back to stop them out, or at least make them panic, close their positions so that they don't make money. Because guess what? The market, or rather the financial market, is a zero-sum game. This means that when you make money from the markets, you're not just like printing that out of thin air, right? This is not like the real world or business or whatever. When you make money in the markets, you are actually in fact taking it from somebody else who ended up on a losing side of a trade. And most of the time when you win, guess who's paying you out of their own pocket? That's right, the smart money, the big players. Think of your exchanges, the brokers, like they are the ones paying you out of their own pocket whenever you win a trade. And so it is in their best interest to cause as many people to lose as possible because they're in the business to make money. And for them to make money, they need people to lose money. That's just the way this game works. And that's why it's important sometimes to read Or rather try to understand where, what they might be thinking. And so we can trade alongside them rather than trade against them. So anyways, at the moment we have retraced back to some kind of bullish order block. But again, we've already kind of established the fact that this is a bearish change in state of delivery on the daily chart, at least not fully yet. Like ideally you would still want to break this before you start looking for major shorts, at least from a swing trading perspective. Like don't get me wrong, swing trading-wise, you're still very much bullish, but just intraday-wise, You may have started to shift, and let me explain what I mean. But before I do get into that, like just understand that the daily chart because of yesterday's bearish close, in fact very bearish close, the daily bias for today is going to be towards the downside, which means ideally we're going to be looking for shorts today and not longs. So once we go into the one hourly chart, you will see also a different picture where not a different picture but a more zoomed in perspective of that. Big picture that I gave you just now. So this right here is what is known as a change in state of delivery. Even if you don't look at this level here, this is already some kind of change in state of delivery. Essentially, now that you have get now that you have formed a candle closure underneath this level, this entire block here now becomes potential resistance until proven otherwise. Like this can be proven otherwise by price just forming you know high highs high lows. But most importantly. Bullish order flow. Because unless that actually happens, you are at the risk of basically— right here you have an inverse— sorry, that's a heads and shoulders pattern, which I've drawn out this fair value gap. We're going to talk about this very shortly. But once you head into here, yeah, you're going to kind of complete the heads and shoulders pattern. And yeah, this is very much a retracement pattern, distribution pattern, whatever you want to call it. And it makes sense, right? Because Bitcoin formed a new all-time high. So at the very least, like for short-term traders and intraday traders, such as what we're are doing here on this channel, this is the opportunity— or rather, the correct move at the moment is to look for shorts, because that's just what the price action is telling us. And by the way, if you would like some help installing a system for yourself to be able to read the markets accurately and to actually make money from it, and if you would like to work with me one-on-one— that's me and you, I help you install that system— feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, um, let's break down what is going on on the 1-hourly. So already We've mentioned the change in state of delivery, and so right now we have a fair value gap that we can potentially retrace into, followed by a bunch of relatively equal highs. So you see this high here and this high here? These are relatively equal highs, and this is really great news for anybody looking for a short because these relatively equal highs are forming right before some kind of higher timeframe PD array. Now, the beautiful thing about relatively equal highs and lows is that they are a magnet for liquidity because most of retail is going to be looking at either one of these levels, right? This is an example of relatively equal lows. Most of retail is going to be looking at these and be like, oh, this is strong resistance because price tested this multiple times and failed to break above it. And so when price, let's say, breaks to resistance, they're going to be like, oh yeah, you know, let's buy the breakout. You know, resistance has been broken. And again, we fall prey into the thing about you know buying high for the counterparty to sell low. So this is a foli gap. This is just a typical typical manipulation type of setup that you get in the markets where you form relatively equal highs slash lows right before higher time frame PD arrays. And that's at the moment what I see. And just to like further cement this, let's take a look at news because news is going to give us. A lot of context as to whether or not this is actually going to be a setup followed by manipulation followed by distribution, or if this is just some kind of a false move. And just to give you an idea of how powerful this is, if you take a look at— let's hop down to the 15-minute timeframe. The dump yesterday that we called happened exactly at 8:30 AM. And this is— sorry, yesterday the news came at, guess what, 8:30 AM. And so news is like, it may not tell you the direction, but it sure as hell can tell you when things are likely to happen. And if you can read one level deeper into that, let's say you've got some kind of like a session profile kind of playing out. For example, London yesterday was just very consolidatory, followed by New York volatility, right? This is something that we can look for. Similarly, London right now is just forming relatively equal highs right before the New York session, right before some kind of 1-hourly high time frame PD array, and right before relatively equal highs. So it makes sense. If you sweep this, then this is going to be an easy accumulation, right? Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York sweep out the London, like basically a second manipulation, and then off you go with the distribution. And the timing that you're going to want to look for this to happen is anytime between an hour before news and an hour after news. So you're going to want to look for that manipulation to happen sometime around 7:30 for the move to start distributing at around 8:30. And then potentially for the move to end at around 10 AM, because this is currently what we have with news. The easiest way that I can explain news, and I say this every time, is that we are always dealing with a load of different variables when it comes to the financial markets. We have where is price going to go? Is it going to go up or down? How far up is it going to go? How far down is it going to fall? And then we have to figure out the timing, right? When is it potentially going to happen? And how long will the move last and stuff like that? The beautiful thing about news and news days is that it kind of removes, or rather narrows down the variables, because then you only need to focus on kind of like the behavior of price, because you pretty much know that something— you may not know what that something is, but you know that something is probably very likely going to happen at any time between 8:30 AM to 10 AM, because that's when you have news. And so it makes the job just that tiny bit easier. As a trader. But anyways, the setup for today is going to be a sweep above— like, you're going to want to look for the 5-minute. In this case, you're going to want to look for a sweep above these relatively equal highs, followed by a 5-minute change in state of delivery, which is just a change in order flow, essentially. Like, just to give you an idea, this would be kind of like an example of a change in state of delivery, right? For lack of a better term, look for higher highs— sorry, you're going to want to look for higher highs and higher lows heading into The sweep, but followed by lower highs and lower lows. Once you start seeing that, then that's going to be a cue for you to jump into an entry and to ride it. Now, as for specific targets, I can reasonably say that this is going to be a reasonable target because these are also, you know, just relatively equal lows. But it is also not a bad idea to just take some profit when you hit 2R. Basically, when you— let's say I take a trade here, I place my stop loss here. I'm just going to set my target at once this number turns into number 2, that means I get for every dollar that I risk on this trade, I'm getting $2 back. And believe it or not, that is all you need in order to sustain a very profitable career as a trader. It sure as hell is going to make your win rate a lot higher. And when your win rate's a lot higher, because you're not going for huge trades, it's going to help your psychology as well, right? You're going to feel a lot better about trading. You're going to feel a lot more confident. And that bleeds into other aspects of trading as well. That is a whole other different rabbit hole that I'm not going to dive into in this video, but just a little bit of alpha about trading psychology. But anyways, there is also kind of like an invalidation in the sense that right now I am looking specifically for these relatively equal highs to get swept out. But if it doesn't, and let's say price just starts breaking lower, then feel free to try an entry once you retrace back into this block right here, because once you break down From this block, this now becomes a bearish order block starting at 118,600. It becomes a bearish order block, and this is kind of like the entry that you would go for. Now, I don't think that this is likely to happen just because of how many relatively equal highs or just how much liquidity is, you know, forming around this fair value gap right here. So I do think that sweep is going to likely happen and probably going to play out something like this, right? This being the block. Price retracing back into the block once you break below it. Take an entry. It's probably going to look something like this. It's just that I'm not going to enter right now because we, like if I enter right now, I'm just putting myself at risk of getting stopped out before like the move happens. So that is the psychology of it. But anyways, have a great weekend, guys. This has been a fun week. I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye bye.