In this solo trading commentary, the host reviews the recent rough week and outlines his approach for the day’s crypto market. He explains how his weekly bias (downward) has held, but intraday execution has been erratic due to New York session volatility. He focuses on a strong Bitcoin order block and a 1‑hour bearish CSD, expecting a “staircase‑up, elevator‑down” pattern. The trader argues that news—specifically the U.S. government shutdown and the 8:30 am data release—acts only as a catalyst for volatility; price action is already priced in and the market moves regardless of the headline. He stresses strict adherence to his systematic trading plan, warning against letting intuition or “pocket‑card” analogies override the rules. He then walks through short setups for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, highlighting key levels (e.g., 66,660 USD for BTC) and chart structures (order blocks, fair‑value gaps, PD arrays). The video ends with a reminder that live trade execution is publicly posted on Twitter, an invitation to a free 6‑hour system recording, and encouragement to stay disciplined during a losing streak.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. We have had a super rough week so far with like a couple of losses in a couple of days where we didn't trade. Uh, yesterday was one of those no-trade days, so let's try to redeem ourselves today. Um, well, I say that, but you know, this highly depends on what the market gives us. As traders, we have zero control over what the market does. Um, we can only, you know, choose to act when the market is giving us a setup, and outside of that, like, yeah, it's just, it's just chilling. But, you know, so far the funny thing is that the weekly bias that I painted out at the start of the week has been, you know, just kind of playing out where we had a brief moment above the weekly open and then ever since then we've been dumping straight down. Now, the problem with this is that even though the overall kind of like higher timeframe prediction was, you know, spot on, the actual intraday execution has been not so because, well, every single New York session where we expect some sort of a dump, price has either pumped In this case, just to follow by a dump. So today is looking slightly more promising compared to yesterday, just because like there is a really strong order block that we are coming into at the moment, and we have spent the majority of, you know, both Asia and London coming back into that order block. So it should be pretty interesting for— so like if I had to guess, we're probably going to get some sort of a setup. Now, has the— has this week's price action been affected by the US government shutdown in any way, shape, or form? I'm sure it has, although I wouldn't say that is the primary reason or that is the only reason, because so far the other markets have been moving pretty cleanly as well. So we're just going to take it as it is and just understand that daily bias so far is towards the downside. Heading down into the 1-hourly chart, we have this order block. We have this 1-hourly bearish CSD, which means that in terms of order flow, you are already in a bearish zone. And today what I'm looking for specifically is kind of like a staircase up but then elevator down type of scenario. For those of you who have followed me on Twitter, I've already mentioned this setup earlier. And by the way, if you guys would like to follow along with any of my live executions, I don't gate this behind a signals group or whatever. Like, it's all on Twitter, publicly documented. So yeah, feel free to follow me there if you want. But otherwise, like, yeah, we're looking for a bearish setup after tapping into this bearish order block. Now, what's interesting for today is that we also have news at 8:30. So the ideal trading window for today is again 7:30 to 9:30. But again, like, the US government is technically on a shutdown, but what's important to understand here is that just like, like one of the very controversial takes that I, you know, always talk about is that the news itself does not really matter. And case in point, the other day, like just a couple of days ago on Wednesday, that was when the official kind of like shutdown happened. And on paper, there was not supposed to be news at 8:30. And yet if you take a look at the chart, these couple of big candles here happened right as the 8:30 candle kind of started. So yeah, you know, there was on paper no news and yet the market still moved as if there was news. And the thing that you want to take away from this is that The news itself does not matter. It's just something that the market makers and the smart money and the big players, they use, you know, kind of after the fact to justify it to retail traders where, oh yeah, the market dropped because the CPI went up. No, the market dropped because, well, it's kind of priced in. If you know how to read price action, you see this happen. Like, you see this kind of setting up even before the news. Whenever the news drops later on, it's like no surprise. And case in point, I publicly documented my trades for like a solid year now with like more than 180 trades documented. And so far, we've had a pretty decent win rate. And part of how I'm able to achieve that is understanding that a lot of this is just manipulation and it's priced in. If you know how to read the price action, you're going to be good regardless of how the news turns out. So moral of the story, news is just a catalyst for volatility. The result of the news, whether or not there is news, does not really matter. The only thing that matters is that when there is news, people will expect some sort of move to happen. at around that news. And it is our job as traders to figure out what that move is likely going to be. And that is our job today. And based on what I'm seeing so far, I definitely think it's kind of like a staircase up, elevator down kind of scenario. Now, as for when I am going to dive into the entry, I'm going to let you guys know later, of course, on Twitter. But for now, let's go into the 5-minute chart just to see how this is playing out. And you can see that the Asia high has already been swept, heading into some sort of hourly PE array. This is one of the textbook setups that I always talk about as far as trading goes, because You are looking at a potential Asia accumulation, London manipulation, followed by a New York distribution at the moment with a daily bias towards the downside heading into just like, yeah, this is as textbook as it gets. So at the moment, I'm just going to be looking for some sort of an undeniable CSD towards the downside. Probably like this would be a good place to start at around 66,660. Pretty nice number. Once that happens, then you're looking at a potential strong high here. Again, it's AMD. That's what we're gonna be trading today. And obviously, like, as you approach that news window, if you just continue to pump straight up, kind of like what happened yesterday, even though we were bearish yesterday, the price just continued pumping straight up. And ultimately, I know that the price did end up dumping, but at this very moment here, enough conditions, like, there was enough things that were not matching up with our system for us to be like, you know what, I know, like, in my head and based on feeling, it's probably a valid setup, where, you know, you have an inverse— sorry, this is a heads and shoulders pattern. And you have a variety of other factors that, you know, logically speaking, it was going to go to the downside. But the problem with kind of like falling into that temptation of just taking a trade just because you kind of know that it's going a certain way, or that you feel that it's going a certain way, is that it ultimately deviates away from your system, right? If you do that enough times, in fact, even if you do that just once, the next time some scenario like this Pops up again, you're just gonna like your brain is just gonna justify to yourself where hey remember that last time where you took a trade based on you know yeah you just knew it was going this way and you took it and you decided to kind of disrespect the system that ended up playing out well so the next time you get presented with an opportunity like this yeah you know I did it last time you know got a good result let's try it out again and we all like you know I know that is not a recipe for consistently profitable trading. So that is that. It's kind of like those moments where I'm going to use poker as an analogy here, where you get a really good, you know, kind of like, it's kind of like poker where I'm going to use a poker analogy here to kind of describe this, but it's kind of those moments where you get like a pocket 4, for example, and you're like, you know, pocket 4s, usually you fold that, at least as far as probabilities go. And maybe you will get, you know, at the moment the cards open up, oh boom, there's 2 4s. Yeah, you could have had a full house, you could have had a 4 of a kind or whatever, but But the point is, you did not know that at the beginning, right? You followed the game plan because you trust that the game plan is ultimately going to make you profitable. And regardless of what the outcome is, yesterday would have been a good outcome. But as far as the inputs go, it would not have matched with the system. And that's why it's perfectly fine to just let that go. So today, in the event that you start pumping, like, and you continue to pump heading into that news window, then yeah, it's not going to be looking particularly good for a trade. Now, if you start breaking down prior to that news session, Guess what? This might be the first A+ trade setup, or rather, uh, this is not the first one, but it could definitely be the first win that we're going to have this week. So definitely pay attention to this. And obviously, if you get— if you manage to get a candle close below 66,000, like, period, that is a very major level that is going to just basically confirm that you're going to go into a downtrend. And if that happens, make sure you take advantage of it. But otherwise, let's get into ETH. And by the way, if you guys would like to learn my full system for absolutely free, I have a link down below where you can get access to a 6-hour-long recording of me just breaking down my system. And it's all for free. If you want, click it. If not, no worries. Otherwise, Ethereum, so far you have a bullish daily bias. If you recall from yesterday, what I mentioned on Ethereum is that it's looking a little bit more uncertain, at least compared to Bitcoin. And, you know, case in point, you just kind of like formed a range. So at the moment, our range low has been swept. So technically, you're supposed to be going for the range high. So like, as far as Ethereum goes, you are supposed to look for a long today. Problem is, like Bitcoin is having a bearish daily bias. So basically this means that if Bitcoin ends up dumping, Ethereum is going to dump as well. It's just how crypto works. So even though you're supposed to look for a long, I would try to avoid it and I would just try to avoid Ethereum like straight up. Although setup-wise, you are definitely looking at a very similar setup to Bitcoin where you have a bearish CSD on the hourly chart. You're coming now back into some sort of hourly PD array. And if you go into the 5-minute chart, Um, you are, you know, manipulating above the Asia high. So if you do end up getting this, I would definitely lean towards Ethereum for some sort of a short. And lastly, let's take a look at Solana. Solana, you are looking at a bearish daily bias, which means that you're going to be looking for a short today. As far as the hourly chart goes, you are coming back into some sort of fair value gap as well, although this is going to be a bit larger. You have a 1-hourly CSD. In terms of the 5-minute chart, yep, exactly the same setup. No surprise there. So overall, we're going to be looking for a short on Bitcoin. Now, if we don't get that, then yeah, today might just end up being another no-trade day. This week has been rough so far, which is like, it's normal to have like a week or a couple of weeks where, you know, trading becomes really rough. Case in point, December last year was pretty rough where, you know, usually on a given month I might take like 10 to 15 trades. In December, I think there were only like 7 or 8 opportunities total, and they weren't the best opportunities either because, well, you have 2 weeks of basically holidays. So like a week or two is nothing in the grand scheme of things. And what's important is that just because we're going through a bit of a losing streak right now doesn't mean that we need to, you know, deviate from the system. It doesn't mean that the system's broken. Doesn't mean that we need to switch strategies. It just means that this is a rough period and that is perfectly fine. But otherwise, guys, I'll see you guys on Twitter later and have a great weekend. Cheers.
