In this video Roman Ceccardi examines why Bitcoin has sharply declined, attributing the downturn to a higher‑than‑expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, imminent Federal Reserve rate hikes (≈50 bps) and ongoing quantitative tightening. He explains how these macro forces pressure risk‑on assets like crypto, especially given leveraged exposure. Ceccardi then shifts to technical analysis, comparing Bitcoin price against USDC and USDT to identify the short‑term bottom. He highlights the CME futures gap around $24,600, noting that Bitcoin has filled the USDC‑based gap but not the CME gap, suggesting further downside until the gap is fully covered. He discusses swing‑low liquidity points around $24,400 (USDC) and $26,800 (USDT), arguing market makers may push price lower to capture liquidity before a relief rally. Using a 15‑minute Fibonacci retracement from the recent move, he marks the 0.5 level as a discount zone and proposes intraday long entries targeting $26,600–$26,900. He advises traders to stay bearish until a break above the prior swing high at $28,300, focusing on intraday scalping and monitoring lower‑timeframe fib levels. The video also promotes his Twitter (@TheArtOfCrypto) and a private Discord for real‑time updates and trade alerts, and references a longer hyperinflation video and a separate scalping tutorial.
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What's up everybody? In this video, we are going to discuss whether or not the bottom is in already. In this video, we will also be talking about what the Fed is about to do and how that is going to affect the crypto markets. And most importantly, we're gonna get into some low time frame stuff that you guys will be able to take advantage of this week if you do choose to dive into something. If that sounds interesting to you, make sure you stick around to the end of this video. Promise it is going to be very helpful to you. Now, first thing to answer is why is this happening at the moment? Why is price taking such a massive downturn? And the answer to that question can be found over here at the Consumer Price Index, because last week the Fed announced that, hey, CPI was higher than what the market was expecting. And because of that, the market sentiment is what's causing the markets to take a downturn, well, ever since the report has been released. Because most of the time, highly inflationary periods tend to cause a lot fear amongst investors, and hence market has been going down. Now, a few months ago, I actually made a video that said that we are already in hyperinflation, and many people have not watched that video yet. It is like a 40-50 minute video that dives into hyperinflation, how it works, and most importantly, what you can do in order to fight back against inflation. If that sounds interesting to you, check out that video, but Fair warning, it is a pretty long video, but it does go pretty in-depth. Now, the second part to this equation is why is price continuing to take a downturn? Because the CPI has already been released. You know, technically speaking, price should have rebounded by now. And the thing that you want to look for is the June FOMC meeting that is going to be happening 2 days from now on Wednesday, that is June 15th, where everyone, like basically every single major publication, is expecting the Fed to to raise interest rates by about 50 basis points. Now, this is very bad for equity markets like the stock market, namely, you know, the S&P, the NASDAQ, Dow Jones. But it is also very bad for risk-on assets like Bitcoin, like Ethereum, like crypto, because there is a lot of leverage going on in these markets. And when interest rates go up, it basically makes it harder for people to borrow money in order to you know, invest into these very high-risk assets. And besides this, there is also a process called quantitative tightening that the Fed is currently going through where they're expected to sell trillions of dollars worth of assets out of their own portfolio over the coming 3 to 5 years. And when you add all of these pieces of information together, then it makes sense that, hey, the market is going to go down still. But the real question that we're gonna need to ask ourselves is where is going to be the short-term bottom and where is going to be the midterm and the long-term bottom. Because even though news are very bad, markets don't simply just go down all the time. There will be rebound periods. And in this video, that is exactly what we're going to be diving into. Now, all of this stuff that I mentioned here, I already posted on my Twitter, so make sure you go follow me on Twitter @TheArtOfCrypto if you want to get the latest market updates. But besides that, let's now get into like, is the bottom already in in the immediate short term? And to do that, we're going to need to hop over to Bitcoin against USDC because I don't know if you guys remember the last time that the market crashed from here to here, which was basically during the Luna crash. During that time, USDT actually lost its peg against USD, whereby 1 USDT was no longer equal to 1 USD. It was about 0.95 or 0.93, I don't remember. But that is the reason why on USDC you can see that the bottom during the last dump was at 24,400. Meanwhile, if I go on to USDT, The bottom was at about $26,800, give or take. Now, why is this important? Well, it is important because when we take a look at the Bitcoin CME futures, you can see that there is a gap over there. I don't know if you guys can see this, but there is zero price action going on during this gap over there. And if you simply take a look at the bottom of the CME futures gap, you can see that it hovers somewhere about $24,600. Now, why is this important? Well, let's go back to Bitcoin against USDC. Now, if I zoom over to this, the bottom of this candle, right, I want you to take a look. The bottom of this candle was at 24,427.94, which is essentially right there. So with this in mind, it means that at least based on USDC, the price of Bitcoin has filled in the CME futures gap already. But at the moment, you can see that on the actual CME futures, the gap has not been filled fully at least. And because of that, we might even expect price to keep continuing lower until this gap has been fully filled before some kind of a relief rally. Now, it is also interesting to note that there are currently 2 gaps above the price at the moment that price will be attracted to, because gaps on the CME futures always get filled. And to those of you who understand that, you can take advantage of, you know, when price moves to fill in these imbalances when everyone else is scrambling Not knowing what to do. So currently, that is my belief, that we are probably still going to go lower just a little bit more before a potential bottom is going to form, at least in the immediate short term. The second thing that backs up this theory is the fact that if you take a look at against USDC, you can see that the swing low is right there. And currently, we have not yet taken out the swing low. So usually when this happens, when swing lows form, you can see of it— like, you can think of it as a liquidity point, right, where basically people are expecting this level to hold. And generally, when price gets to this level, most of retail are going to be looking to buy because they think that this is support. But in reality, what the market makers are going to do, they're going to take price a little bit lower before reversing things, which also means that currently Bitcoin has not yet found a bottom at current prices. And we might expect Bitcoin to go all the way back down to $24,400 when compared to USDT in order to take out this liquidity before getting that relief So my sincere recommendation to all of you is that at least until these prices are hit, or until we break structure on the daily chart, or at least on the 4-hourly— and breaking structure essentially just means when price breaks a previous swing high. So right there would be the closest previous swing high at $28,300. So until price breaks this level, which means that it has formed a high high and comes back down to form a higher low, until that happens, we are bearish until otherwise proven so. So until that happens, we are mainly going to focus our efforts on intraday trading, which is basically you enter and exit within the same day. And if you want to find out whether or not you can actually make money doing that, I have already made a video about that which I'm going to link at the end of this video. But otherwise, the final thing that I want to talk about, which is, you know, a trade that you guys can potentially get in on, is I'm just going to go back to Bitcoin/USDT and we're going to take a look at this. So I want you guys to pay attention to this because if you draw a fib, right, currently I'm on the 15-minute. If you draw a fib from here to here, which is— here is basically where the move started, and this is assuming that this is the bottom. Now if you draw a fib from there to there, you can see that the 0.5 is right here. Now the thing you need to understand about markets is that anything above the 0.5 is price trading at a premium, and anything below the 0.5 is price trading at a discount. Currently we are trading at a discount, assuming that this is the range right here. Now, the algorithms that control price, that are essentially responsible for 80% of daily trading volume, they are designed to keep the price in equilibrium, right? If price deviates too far away from equilibrium— and because of that, we have to pay attention to the 0.5 fib, where assuming this is the bottom right here, you could start looking at lower time frames, 5 minutes or the 1 minute, And try to go in on a long and take profit at 26,850 or 26,900-ish. Now that is going to be my target for this relief rally. Any higher I cannot guarantee, but assuming that this is the bottom, I do believe that we will go to 26,900 before any further down moves because price just simply needs to go back to equilibrium for a little bit before price continues downwards. And at the same time, you could also take some profit at 26,600 for anyone of you who bought the dip on this dip right here. So currently the short-term bottom might be in, but in the midterm, which means within this week or the next couple of weeks, I do expect price to still continue downwards to $24,400 to take out that low, assuming that we are following the USDC valuations. And just a final note, everything that I've said in this video has already been said in the private Discord group. So if you guys want the latest market updates as well as following along with all of the trades that I'm taking, this is the place that you're going to want to be. For now, may the gains be with you, my friend, and go check out this video that details how you can make money scalping or just trading intraday. Bye-bye.
