In this solo YouTube commentary, the presenter reviews Bitcoin’s price action across weekly, daily, 1‑hour, and 5‑minute charts, emphasizing a bearish bias for the New York morning session. He explains why he targets a 2R profit objective, cites his historical 83% win‑rate across 81 videos, and outlines two specific short‑trade scenarios: (1) an ABC pattern where Asia accumulates, London breaks out, then retraces before New York pushes lower, and (2) a false‑liquidity‑sweep where price briefly makes two equal highs before descending. He highlights the importance of fair‑value‑gap (FVG) fills, order‑flow signals, and the 8:30 AM news catalyst. The presenter stresses trading what the market shows rather than personal bias, advises aligning three time‑frames before entering, and notes that New York afternoon often reverses the morning move. He concludes with a brief promotion of his sold‑out bootcamp and invites viewers to join a waitlist for future intake.
Chapters
What's up everyone, welcome back to another video. Yesterday we missed the target by a tiny little bit, but still the overall trade idea was spot on. Yesterday I did mention that when it comes time to around 8:30 AM, expect a move to happen, and boom, you filled in that fair value gap on the 1-hour chart. 8:30, we started pumping. Later on you retrace back into the CISZ, and then boom, to our trade. Easy. Of course, in the New York afternoon session it did end up going down, but That is the caveat of these videos that we make. And I feel like I have to further clarify this, not because anyone's complaining, but just so you guys don't take these trades wrongly. I am trying to catch the high probability move of the day. I'm not trying to catch the biggest move of the day. So for example, we have managed to consistently catch 2R, and that also means that the trades that we are taking mostly is just 2R, right? It's consistent, it gives you a high win rate, keeps your confidence as a trader high, and most of the time you do get 2R even if you don't hit you know, all of the larger targets. But still, uh, that's my personal trading strategy. Depending on what strategy you're using, feel free to adapt this, these videos, or like these analyses for your own purpose. But for yesterday, we're going to count that as a win, and that is going to put us at 67 out of 81 of all of the video— YouTube videos, or like the YouTube calls I've made since February. That puts us at around an 83% accuracy. So today we're going to do the same, and So far, just a quick little disclaimer, I'm already kind of in a trade at the moment, which price is starting to reverse a bit, but no panic. Either way, on the daily chart, what we need to look at is that yesterday's candle closed bearish. This does not mean that today is going to be bearish, but I'm going to be leaning towards the bearish direction today. Now, this fair value gap has not yet been broken through, which means there is still a chance that price will shoot up from here. So I'm going to talk about both of the scenarios in just a bit. Just understand that on the weekly chart, you are bullish, you are very bullish. In fact, you will continue to trade bullish until otherwise proven. So now let's get into the lower timeframes. And lower timeframes, at the moment, you have London filling in this fair value gap right here on the 1-hourly chart, and price is starting to head lower. So that's a good sign that goes in line with the daily bias. Basically, the 1-hourly order flow is already bearish, and so far it is looking bearish in general. So that's why my idea is towards the bearish side. Now, the only thing that I would love to see more, or like just a better setup, is for For example, this red box here—that's the Asia low. And London so far, you are taking out the Asia low, although there is not yet any indication that price wants to return back into the range. And so there are only going to be like two potential calls that I'm going to be making today, and they're both going to be pointing towards the downside. And the first of which is that today is going to be a ABC kind of setup: Asia accumulation, London breaks out, and then retraces a little bit, and then New York continues. And the second type of setup is going to be also pretty similar, actually. Instead of like price just going down from, like, immediately from here onwards, it will retrace to take out these 2 relatively equal highs first. So basically, you get a false liquidity sweep, and then you start heading lower. And what's also interesting to note about today is that we do have news at 8:30. So look for the move to happen around 8:30. So potentially, today is going to just be a setup all the way until 8:30. You may sweep out the liquidity and then boom, right the opposite way. If you see that happen, or if you see price just start breaking lower from this point onwards, That's going to be your go sign that you can start trading this lower. In terms of the targets, it's going to be tough, but I'm going to stick to my guns. What I usually do is just 2R, as simple as that. But if you want to aim a little bit further today, you could see 106,800. That's just a potential, not saying that it's going to happen, but 2R. And if you want to take, you know, you want to go for a runner, then go for that. Now that's going to be the 2 potential setups for today, right? Basically sweeping this out. Got it. Going down. The reason why I'm leaning towards shorts—I feel I have to explain this—is that on the daily chart yesterday you have a bearish daily bias, one hourly you have bearish order flow, and so far on a five minute even though we want to be bullish, it's important to understand that ultimately we want to be trading what the market is telling us, or rather we want to be trading what the market's showing us, not what we want to see happen. Now I want to see price go bullish, but I'm also aware that you know it doesn't matter what I think. And that is what the market is showing me. And so often I see beginners, like, they have a really clear idea of what they want to see in the markets. And like, even when the market is giving them warning signs that, hey, you know, the scenario is not playing out, they're still like really stubborn and they're really, you know, dead set on that scenario that they want to see. And then boom, they end up getting stopped out. If there's one lesson for you that you can take away from this video, it's that to trade what the market is trying to show you. At the moment, the probabilities seem like it's going to point towards the downside, but there's also potential for upside because Usually Asia tends to be accumulation, London tends to be manipulation, and New York tends to go the other way, right? That's the general idea that we have of the New York session. And so while there may be a bullish scenario today, if you get a candle close above 107,850 and the price starts, you know, holding, maybe forming a higher low here, you may start to go the other way. So this could happen sometime during the New York late morning or potentially even New York afternoon because the way most days play out, right? If you understand session profiles, Asia tends to be accumulation, London tends to be manipulation, New York tends to be distribution. But then what most people do not talk about is that New York afternoon tends to be a reversal. Most of the time when you see, like, after that high probability setup that I give you guys, the market tends to reverse the other way. And then the people that watch the videos late, they may be like, oh yeah, this guy's wrong because, well, the largest move of the day was actually going the other way. And that is not necessarily true because, like, I'm not trying to trade the New York afternoon. The calls that I make are specifically for the New York morning. But today I can also discuss the possibility of a New York afternoon reversal. So If you get something like this, then New York afternoon will probably give you this move. Although I will not be personally trading this because it doesn't align with my system. Basically, with my system, I want to see all 3 time frames being aligned before I take any trades. In a sense, the daily chart is pointing towards the downside. I do not see upside yet. The 1-hour chart in terms of order flow is also pointing towards the downside. And so on the 5-minute, I'm going to focus on taking shorts instead of longs. So even if the market reverses today and starts showing long signals, It is not too late to jump in tomorrow where I feel a fair retracement and then boom, right? This will maybe be the high probability move of tomorrow. But just for today, you're going to be leaning towards the short side. So just a quick one today. And by the way, uh, bootcamp is sold out like 1 month in advance. Like, we are full, full. In fact, we are over capacity. Like, accident— like, my team was, you know, sending emails to you guys saying that, hey, bootcamp is full. But then I was like, I wasn't aware of it. And I was like, oh yeah, we still have 1 spot. open. And so now we're ending up taking 1 or 2 more people on the next intake, which is fine. I can still handle it. But yeah, if you guys would like to join a program where you work with me one-on-one, yeah, me and you, to get you from where you are right now to basically full-time trading or just to get funded, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below, sign up to the newsletter, and you'll be the first to know when we open up the next intake, or like when we open up the waitlist for the next intake, because the next intake hasn't even started yet. and it's already over capacity. And yeah guys, look forward to the vlog that's being edited right now. I'm going to be posting it to my personal channel. I'm going to put that in the second link in the description box below. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in the next one. Bye-bye!
