BTC, SUI, SOL, ETH, XRP - The Key Setups For Today

What's up guys, happy Friday! Yesterday we called it to perfection. Asia high gets swept in between the hours of 5 to 7 AM, and then boom, off you go. That is your typical AMD setup complete. So this is going to look like, okay, sweeping out potentially the London high, maybe also taking out the Asia high before you form a high of the day and the price continues to head lower. Let's see if we can confirm this though on the 1-hourly chart. And to do that, we're going to draw out this order block right here, and this order block also happens to align with the London high. Is it a coincidence? I don't think so. So in order to get an AMD, you're going to want to see price, you know, tap above this area right here, potentially even the H high. Either one is valid. And then you're going to want to see a change in state of delivery. Essentially, I've already talked about order flow. This entire period here is bearish order flow. And you want to look for just basically, if you are starting to go up to tap these areas, you're going to have a little bit of bullish order flow. You want to see the order flow change, come back, bam, that's where you enter and put your stop loss above here. And you're gonna be Gucci. And then of course, the rest of the day ended up being a reversal. But you guys know how it goes in this channel. We're not trying to catch the biggest move of the day. We're just trying to catch one high probability move during the day when all the stars kind of align. And, you know, we're systematic that way. So for those of you who are thinking, oh, you know, I've seen some of the comments there, oh, your analysis was wrong. Guys, come on. We're calling 2R trades here and we're calling just one high probability move. It is impossible for me to predict the biggest move of the day. Like if I try to do that, yeah, you know, I'm gonna fail miserably. In fact, very little people are able to do that. Trading is a game where you have a system where certain conditions are met, go into it, you have a certain exit condition as well. And that is what we're trying to do here. So yesterday marks the 83rd win, I believe, out of the last 101 videos that I've done. And today we are going to try to continue this win streak. And the special thing about today, it's a Friday. So I'm also going to talk a little bit about altcoins. Specifically, I'm going to look through Solana, XRP, SUI, and Ethereum. And so this video is going to be a little bit more rapid-fire than usual, just to save a little bit on time. Officially though, the analysis, like the proper analysis that I'm going to be calling, is just on Bitcoin. But I'm also going to talk about, you know, other altcoins as well. And to be honest, I even considered just doing altcoins straight up today because Bitcoin is just not very interesting at the moment. So yesterday's daily bias closed bullish, and so today we are potentially looking for bullish. Now let's go into the 1-hourly chart, and immediately we are coming to the point where we are seeing a change in state of delivery over here, where order flow has now shifted bearish. Not only that, but you swept above the Asia high during London. And so what is likely going to happen today is potentially an ABC kind of— well, this is technically AM already, so distribution is already going on at the moment. So you either see price continue heading lower, or potentially we take into account these relatively equal highs over here And price actually might just sweep out some lows right here and then potentially reverses. Overall though, I don't think Bitcoin is going to be in the highest probability today simply because the daily chart is pointing towards the upside, but the 1-hourly chart is pointing towards the downside at the moment. And so we're getting timeframe misalignment. Hence also the reason why I wanted to make a video on altcoins today instead. There is just not too much to talk about on Bitcoin today. But so far things are looking bearish at the moment. This will change. Potentially, but as of the time that I'm recording this right now at 4:30, yeah, it's looking kind of bearish. So I'm going to give you guys the bearish setup for today, but just understand that this is going to be lower probability compared to other days. To kick things off, today we do not have news. Today's Friday. There is no news today, which means the price action today is going to be a little less high probability. In fact, you may even end up with just an inside bar where— an inside bar, for those of you who do not know, you have the previous daily high here, previous daily low. So far you can see that we did not take out the previous daily high, and so far price is already heading towards the downside. An inside bar just means a day without much volatility. For example, after we got this big candle right here, you know, this is an inside bar where nothing really happens. Is that likely to? I don't know. But news, or rather the lack thereof, is something to consider. So at least on the 1-hourly chart at the moment, this becomes your new area of resistance, right? This 1-hourly order block right here. And we're going to remove all the other stuff. And potentially we have a liquidity point down here, and we also have a liquidity point down here. Now overall though, at the moment you want to look for a retracement and then heading towards the downside. Trade is going to be pretty straightforward. You're going to want to take advantage of this fair value gap right here that exists within this bearish order block right here. And then, you know, just target a 2R. As usual, like trading in general, if you go for just 2R every single time, you're going to have— you're going to find that you're going to win much more trades. Your trades are going to be much more consistent. You're not going to run through too many drawdown periods because, well, you're not aiming for a lot. And the problem comes when People that aim for a lot don't have the expectation, or at least they're not mentally ready for the fact that if you aim for a really big move, it's going to take you a few more losses before you get one of those, you know, home runs. You can either be like, you know, more consistent, you know, hit, just make sure you hit the ball, or you could go for a home run. Just understand that there is a difference in, you know, win rate when it comes to both approaches. Now, there's nothing wrong with either approach. You just got to be ready to take on more losses if you're going to be going for bigger moves. So at the moment, setup is pretty clear. You enter into this fair value gap specifically. Even you have an order block right here at 119. 700. So this is like just to further refine it down. You can also say like just this box here. But yeah, so far you've got the manipulation, so far you get distribution. Like price is, I would assume, likely to continue towards the downside. But at the very least, like I don't see how you— like we would have a bullish setup today. Now assume for a moment that this low gets taken out here. Price will need to go all the way above this bearish order block right here to confirm any sort of long position. You could take a long with a lower timeframe, kind of like CSD on the 5-minute. You could, but this is going to be a lower probability kind of setup compared to if you were to just follow whatever's happening at the moment. But even in this case, just understand that because the daily bias is bullish, because yesterday's daily candle closed bullish, the daily bias today is supposed to be bullish. At the moment, the 1-hourly is kind of pointing towards the downside, and the 5-minute, well, of course, we've already talked about the second profiles. So just understand that we have a bit of timeframe misalignment here. So if you're going to take this trade, Just kind of reduce your risk or maybe be a little bit more cautious. Or even better, look at the altcoins that I'm gonna be talking about right after I tell you guys about Bootcamp. If you would like to work with me one-on-one to install this exact system that you've been seeing on these videos that have achieved more than an 80% win rate over the last 5 months, then we're about to close this month's intake. The next time you'll be able to join is probably gonna be next month. But if you're interested to join, click the first link in the description box below and book a call for Bootcamp. Otherwise, this is going to be pretty straightforward. Some may even argue that the move for the day has already been missed, but we're still going to try with the New York AM. So now let's move on to the big boy, Ethereum, and see if there is a setup there. So on the daily bias, you are incredibly bullish, and so far this is a fair value gap that you could potentially retrace into on the daily chart. Daily bias is bullish, and let's just take a look at the 1-hourly chart. So far it is coming down, but you are also heading down into a 1-hourly fair value gap. With a liquidity point right here, and so the setup like I'm going to call potentially a long on Ethereum even though I'm calling a short on Bitcoin. But there is a slight difference here. You have a liquidity point right before a one hourly fair value gap, and if we take a look at the session profiles, this is still above the mid-range of the Asia high. Now you could argue that this could be accumulation manipulation distribution heading towards the downside, but still like it's worth taking a shot here in between the hours of like. 6 to 7 AM, if you see price head into this retracement zone or potentially slightly lower at this lower fair value gap right here— I know it's tiny, but this is still a valid 1-hourly fair value gap— if you see price head into either one of these levels and you start seeing a shift, 5-minute shift in change of state and delivery, then yeah, feel free to take A2R. Although if there is one thing that I will caution you guys about when it comes to taking trades on altcoins, just understand that if Bitcoin were to dump, everything else is going to dump as well. So after looking through all of these coins, I'm going to give you kind of like a best altcoin to trade for today, and you're only really going to want to limit yourself to one trade. I know it's tempting to take, you know, if all of these setups are going to win, then, you know, why not take all 5 setups, for example? But that is a very horrible idea because the nature of crypto is that as long as Bitcoin goes down, everything's probably going to go down as well. And so you're essentially just taking 5 similar trades just with like a different name tag on top of them. If you win, yeah, sure, you're going to win all of them. But if you lose, guess what? You're going to lose all of them. So either one of these fair value gaps is the setup today. Going to look for a 5-minute change in state of delivery. And now let's move into Solana. Solana, like the— if you guys watch the video that I did on Solana just, um, I think on Monday, this has already played out so far. So to anyone that has gotten into Solana and you have been making money with it, congratulations. This was pretty easy, pretty straightforward. At the moment on the daily chart, you have a bullish daily bias. This is your fair value gap that you want to potentially look for a retrace, but only next week though. So let's move into the 1-hourly. We are going to be looking for longs because of the daily. And again, like, the setup is pretty straightforward. This is your fair value gap, potentially another fair value gap right there, and this also happens to add up with a bullish order block. So between the hours of 6 to 7, you want to see price retracing to either one of these levels, and you're going to want to look for a long. The only thing is, I would highly recommend Ethereum. Now, the only thing that you want to keep in mind with Solana as well as Ethereum is that you have relatively equal lows over here. So there is a risk that, you know, this one could just get stopped out before, like, basically you're just going to go for this liquidity. The way that you're going to be able to prevent yourself from getting stopped out though is to look for that 5-minute change in state of delivery. Yes, the key levels matters. Like, once you enter into the key levels, it matters even more that you see the right reaction from the market. Because at the moment, we have an idea of what the market's going to do, but it does not get confirmed until you see a 5-minute change in state of delivery, basically. And yeah, until that happens, don't enter into this trade and you're gonna be able to prevent yourself from getting stopped out if there is that risk. Again, XRP, like you're starting to see the trend now. It is all very similar. You have a fair value gap over here, you have that order block over here. Just look for retracement, you know, during 6 to 7 AM. But honestly, now that I'm looking at all these altcoins, I may not even recommend you taking them, at least in terms of the long side, just because of the fact that at the moment we are kind of predicting a dump on Bitcoin. The probability of these trades playing out is going to be a little lower. Now, SUI is in a different kind of position though, because if you take a look at the 5-minute chart, at the moment you have already fully retraced back into the Asia range. On a 1-minute— sorry, on a 1-hourly chart, you are back into a value area. And so this is actually one of them that I am going to recommend. Like, if you start seeing that 5-minute changes to the delivery, this is going to be a little less higher probability than the others, purely because, you know, you've already kind of completed that retracement. And right now you have a chance to just break above. Although the invalidation scenario for this is going to be like if you start heading lower instead, you get a 1-hourly close underneath this level right here at 3.96, that is going to invalidate this long idea because this would signify a bearish change in state of delivery. And instead you're gonna wanna focus on shorts instead. And then lastly, I think the coin that I said I wanted to do was SUI, Solana, XRP, Ethereum. Oh no, I have actually done all of the altcoins already. And so yeah, just to give you a conclusion because, you know, there's a lot of ideas that have been thrown around so far. Just understand that there's a— the reason why I do not do altcoin videos alongside the Bitcoin videos is simply because like Bitcoin kind of acts as almost like the reference point for all of these altcoins in the first place. If you're going to be trading altcoins, I highly recommend you guys, like, if you're gonna trade altcoins, make sure you pick just one, at least on an intraday basis. But otherwise, focus more on the swing positions because altcoins, the beauty of altcoins compared to Bitcoin at least, is that they move much more. When you're getting like a big pump or whatever, Bitcoin may go up by 10%, but altcoins are gonna go up by 50%. And for altcoins, a lot of the value That you're gonna get is gonna be focused on catching like these major swings right here. And so swing trading is gonna be in your best interest when it comes to altcoins. But if you're gonna trade it intraday, hopefully that gives you the setup. Remember to just pick one, otherwise you're gonna just be taking the same trade like 5 times. And most importantly, make sure you manage your risk on Bitcoin because so far today is not looking like the highest probability day. But hey, there is still a decently clear direction. And so I wish you the best of luck and happy weekend, guys.