In this solo video, Roman Ceccardi delivers a smart‑money style market analysis focused on Bitcoin and several altcoins. He begins by reviewing his recent successful trade calls, highlighting a 53‑out‑of‑66 win record. He explains his order‑block methodology, using Fibonacci retracements and "kill zones" (London 2‑5 AM, New York 7‑10 AM) to time entries. For Bitcoin, he identifies a daily range with a bullish bias, pinpointing a key 1‑hour bullish order block around $104k and a target near $105k, contingent on a 1‑hour close above the block and upcoming news‑driven volatility. He stresses the importance of recognizing market regimes—Asia accumulation, London manipulation, New York distribution—and advises traders to avoid the scarcity mindset by focusing on trade quality over quantity, using reduced position sizing when confidence is lower. He then surveys altcoin opportunities (Kaito, Hyperliquid, IP, Pendle, Story, Popcat, WIF), each showing bullish order‑block breakouts with clear entry, stop‑loss, and target zones. Throughout, he encourages community interaction, notes the video’s delayed release due to choppy London session, and invites viewers to comment, subscribe, and suggest future coin coverage.
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What's good, guys? Welcome back to another video. Yesterday we were so spot on with the analysis. Like, if you guys remember, I drew out this one hourly order block right there, and I told you guys to expect price to come back into that order block roughly around 8:30 AM. And if you take a look at the time of yesterday when price came back into that order block, kabam! We can look for kind of like a retracement within this range here. Now we could draw a fib kind of like this, And you'll see that that bearish order block lines up with 2.5 of that Fib. So if you were to retrace into, you know, this zone right here, or potentially, yeah, if you were to retrace into this zone or any one of these like bearish order blocks, as long as you're within a kill zone, meaning right now London is 2 AM to 5 AM New York, and then you have the New York open kill zone, which is 7 to 10 AM. As long as you're within these timing windows and you get a retracement and you see the markets start to break down, then that's going to be your trade setup, right? That is 8:35 AM. And the reason why that was the case is because yesterday we had news at 8:30 and 8:40, and that's how I was able to kind of nail the timing as well as the key level. So this overall puts us up to 53 wins out of the last 66 trades called since February. These are all on YouTube, like publicly called. If you watch my past 50 videos or so, that is where you'll get the track record. So for those of you who are new here, just understand that you are probably in the right place because I tend to be right more often than I'm wrong. So without any further ado, let's dive into the update on Bitcoin and to give you guys kind of like the rundown on what's likely to happen today. And right off the get-go, I think some of the more loyal, you know, followers here will have noticed that this video is coming a little bit later than usual, given the fact that I'm recording this at 6 AM New York, which means it's only about 30 minutes to 45 minutes until the start of the New York session. And one of the reasons why this video came late today is because, truth be told, I have— like, the London session was just so choppy up until, you know, like 3:30 AM. And so there wasn't much to talk about, right? There were basically 2 scenarios that could happen. One is you get some kind of manipulation underneath the Asia, and the second is you get a breakout continuation going to target 105, which I think in terms of today, that is still the more likely trade to happen. Let me explain what I mean though. So starting off on the daily chart, just so we are not trading against the higher time frame trend. Yesterday, the daily candle closed bullish after sweeping out some liquidity, although I would have really loved to see this liquidity here get swept and to fill in that daily fair value gap, just like what I discussed in yesterday's video. And I I think there is still a possibility that this still gets filled at some point. Although today I'm not super certain. And just take today's analysis with like a grain of salt. I'm not seeing super clear setups across the board. Today is probably just one of those days where, you know, we take it easy and not try to force anything. Because as you can clearly see, Bitcoin is very much in a range. And a lot of the times people tend to get, you know, people tend to struggle within ranges. And after having coached like hundreds of students over the last 4 years, I can tell you confidently that one of the main reasons why people tend to struggle in ranges is because they're expecting trending conditions when the market is ranging, which means you're expecting a big move, but the market gives you a small move and reverses to the other way. And so just simply identifying the fact that we are in a range tends to fix most of these problems. So going back to what I was talking about before, assuming that this is the range low, right? That means that after you sweep out the range low, 80% of the time, statistically speaking, you tend to go sweep out the range high. And so at the moment, you are currently in this 1-hourly order block after a bullish daily bias yesterday. There is only one way this tends to play out, right? I see like, I basically see like one possible like trade today. Just to explain what I mean by that, like for today, if there is a trade, there is probably only one possible trade, and that is that price finds support at this bullish order block. The fact that you have also swept underneath the Asia lows means that this tends to be manipulation, right? Happened during London, so that checks the box. And New York is probably going to distribute to 105. That's the only setup that I can see today. And just to explain what I mean, when I say that is probably the only setup that I see. If you take a look at this order block right here, this essentially needs to get broken through below to confirm bearish order flow, which means that there is no— like, if you can jump into a short right now on the 5-minute chart, yeah, sure you can. I'm sure you can make it work. But following the system that I, you know, use, essentially right now the order flow on the 1-hourly is pointing towards the upside, right? You have bullish order blocks. Like, that's a bullish order block right there. Price breaks above, comes down to retest it, and this The fact that price broke above this one right now means that this is now your new bullish order block, which means that in terms of the order flow on the 1-hourly, it is bullish. And for it to change to bearish, it needs to close below this block right here to validate it as a potential bearish order block. Until that happens, I have no shorts. And so if there is a trade today, it's probably going to be long. And right now, again, Asia tends to be accumulation, London manipulation, and New York distribution— the exact type of setup that I want you guys to look for. is for price to break above this block right here. So if you take a look at this rip, like this down candle right here, if you break above, let's say, $104,000, you can come down to retest this zone or anywhere, you know, around here for a long potentially to $105,000. Now there again, there is news today at 10:00 AM, so you would expect the volatility to really kick off close to 10:00 AM or in the hours following 10:00 AM. But in general, the setup is gonna be pretty straightforward. And this is pretty much the only one that I can see for today. And the confirmation, right, the trigger before you jump into the trade is that you want to have a close above that zone on the 1-hourly chart that I drew above. So basically, you want to see a candle close above 104. Even better if you can wait for a close above 104.160, because that's the candle body. If you can get a 1-hourly close above this, that is just— actually, you don't even need to. Yeah, all you need is to close above here, and like, you're all good. In fact, if you want to jump into a trade right now, you can do so. Just look for some weak lows to get swept. So potentially right here, that is a weak low heading into a fair value gap. And so you could even just set your entry right here, stop loss here, and targeting 105. Now, whether or not 105 is going to get hit today, I'm not sure because currently we're in ranging conditions. Yes, we have news later, but so far for the past 3 days, I've been anticipating a lot more volatility and the market just straight up hasn't been giving me the volatility, right? We've been playing the setups right. We have called the AMDs. We have called, for example, yesterday's continuation setup. But in terms of volatility, I cannot quite anticipate that. The only thing I can say is that today we have news, so there will be some volatility. As for whether or not we'll hit $105,000, I have no idea. But the setup for today is probably going to be this one. And just one last note to keep in mind is that, yes, while we may have a setup, the fact that I'm only looking at Bitcoin from these videos— like, don't get me wrong, I look at many other charts within my own trading. It's just when I make these videos, I'm only looking at Bitcoin. One of the things that I tend to do, and hopefully this is something that helps you as well, is I never, you know, get too caught up into one setup. In fact, one of the reasons why you always want to be looking at multiple charts is so that you don't fall into that kind of scarcity mindset where you feel the need to take a trade every day, because otherwise it feels really unproductive, right? This is how we're conditioned by society. The more work we do, the more hours we put in, the more we— or rather, the more income that we derive out of that job. And yet trading is a very, very— in fact, there is no game that is Quite as different as trading. In trading, you're you're paid based on the quality of the decisions that you make and not based on the quantity of the decisions that you make. And so the benefit of looking at multiple charts is that if there is a setup, for example, on Bitcoin today where I'm feeling a little less certain about there being a very clean setup, even if I were to take this trade, I would not be risking too too much on it. In fact, I'll probably go half risk or maybe a quarter of the normal risk that I go for. But what's beautiful is that on other coins such as let's say Story, right? This is Story Foundation. This is IP. You have a very decent setup. In fact, if you take a look at Hyperliquid as well, you have a very decent setup. If you take a look, that is a liquidity that price is drawing towards on the daily chart. And right now you have a bullish order block right here. And so you want to look for just a continuation trade, right? Price is breaking out right now. Continuation trade to there. That's like 26.3 up to 28.5. Now, if you look at this from a spot perspective, then yeah, it's only 10%. But if you look at it from a trader's perspective, you can make multiple Rs from this. And In terms of Pendle, I think you also have a very decent setup in the sense that right now you have retested into this bullish order block, and currently you are drawing towards this level right here. This is now relatively equal highs. If you take a look there, and if you take a look there, those are relatively equal highs. And currently you've retested this order block. You've successfully— if today's candle closes bullish, then you've successfully validated this bullish order block, and prices will head towards there. And so Hyperliquid and Pendle, direction's really clear. You can see the volatility is in the market as well. It's not as choppy as Bitcoin, And in certain days like this, especially like this, I would much rather, you know, just prioritize these ones that are moving really cleanly. Kaito is another example. You have this bullish order block that you're just breaking out of. And when you— one thing to note, when you are hearing me talk about this, I'm not going to take all 3 of these trades. One thing you need to understand about crypto is that everything is kind of the same, right? If Bitcoin dumps, everything kind of dumps. And so if you take, you know, multiple positions on different pairs at the same time, Thinking that you are taking different types of positions, you are in fact wrong. In fact, you cannot be more wrong than that because ultimately they are the same thing just with different packaging. Especially because take a look at Kaito, right? It's pumping with that bullish order block. Hyperliquid, it's pumping with that bullish order block. On Pendle, you are pumping albeit slightly different order block. And then even on Story, you are getting the same situation. Popcat is different. WIF is basically the same as Popcat. If you take a look at the price action, like you cannot tell the difference. And so it's very important to understand that these aren't just the same thing with different packaging. Although for today, I definitely think the opportunity is going to lie within these other coins, not necessarily so much so on Bitcoin. But if there is a trade today, then that I think will be the one. Let me know in the comment section below if you would like me to cover other coins or if you guys actually appreciate the fact that I only cover Bitcoin. I'll be interested to know what you guys think. And quick shout out to you guys in the comment section. I've had so many kind words from all of you. Just know that I read each and every comment. So if you have, well, there's a need be kind words, but if you have a word— could be bad, could be good— or if you have a suggestion, feel free to just drop it down in the comment section below. Just know that I read it every single day. But anyways, if you enjoy these analyses done from the smart money perspective on crypto, then make sure you subscribe to the channel because I'll be coming to you guys with pretty much daily uploads on— well, during the weekdays. Otherwise, see you guys in the next one. Bye-bye.
