In this solo commentary, the presenter explains that the primary factor preventing a crypto (and broader risk‑on) bull market is the Federal Reserve’s current hawkish stance. He outlines how high inflation, driven by supply‑chain and geopolitical pressures, has forced the Fed to raise interest rates and embark on quantitative tightening, pulling roughly $35 billion of assets from its balance sheet each month for the next 6‑12 months. This tight monetary environment limits liquidity, suppresses equity and crypto valuations, and keeps markets in a bear‑ish phase. The speaker draws parallels between today’s over‑extended market and the 2008 crisis, noting rising layoffs and an impending housing‑market correction. He argues that a bull market will likely only return once the Fed reverses its policy—lowering rates and halting balance‑sheet reductions—a process he estimates will take 6‑12 months. He also mentions that market‑structure signals (higher highs and higher lows) will accompany that policy shift, and promises a future video analyzing those technical cues. The video ends with a call to subscribe for updates.
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What needs to happen before we know it is back in a bull season? That is an excellent question. It is a question that I will be making further videos to answer. But just to give you a short little summary, you need to understand that at the moment, most of the world is very overextended. What happened in Ukraine and overall in the entire market with inflation, with CPI, with a bunch of stuff, with the housing market about to crash, which I think it will crash because there are a lot of similarities between, you know, this current market situation and the market situation back in 2008. People are starting to get laid off and this is going to get worse. But overall, the market situations will only improve for risk-on assets as well as equity markets as well as just securities in general when the Federal Reserve, which is the central bank of the USA, starts to reverse their hawkish stance. Now, what does hawkish mean? Hawkish simply means that they are combating inflation. They are putting all their efforts into combating inflation because inflation at the moment is at 40-year highs and And you guys are seeing that being reflected in a lot of the commodities such as coffee, wheat, crude oil, and all that stuff. You know, you're starting to see food and just everything, everyday items rise in price. And why is that? Because of a few reasons. Some of them could be supply chain issues. Some of them could be geopolitical issues, which I'm not going to talk much about on this stream because I don't want to get demonetized. Based on overall market conditions, the inflation is really, really high. And the other thing that you need to understand is that interest rates for the better part of the last decade since the 2008 financial crash, interest rates, which is defined as how expensive it is to borrow money, like when you buy a house, for example, the interest rates is going to determine how much you have to pay on your loan, like your monthly installments on the house, for example, and cars. And the reason I bring this up is because for the last 10 years, the Federal Reserve has been incredibly Supportive of market growth. So they've made interest rates really low, which makes it really easy to borrow money. It makes it really cheap to borrow money. And because of that, the market has been inflated essentially. And now they are taking the completely opposite stance, which is they are very hawkish at the moment, which means they want to take down inflation. And how do they do that? Well, they raise interest rates, they make it very hard to borrow money, and they make it very expensive to borrow money. When that happens, you're generally not going to have a lot of money flowing into the equity markets or investment sort of markets. Housing, like cars and— well, I wouldn't say cars, but housing and, you know, risk-on assets such as crypto or the stock market or whatever. When that happens, the— as, as long as they continue to do that, to raise interest rates and to do quantitative tightening, which is the other thing that I wanted to talk about— quantitative tightening is the opposite of quantitative easing, which is what quantitative easing is, when they print a bunch of money, right? Quantitative tightening is when they sell off the assets in their balance sheet. For example, let's say they own X amount of shares of X company, and that is a part of Balance sheet. So in order to do quantitative tightening, they tend to sell that off. So in a way, the Federal Reserve is like a liquidity provider in the markets, and they are part of the reason why market valuations are as high as they are or as low as they are. So in that sense, you can imagine that if they do decide to pull out of you know continuing to invest in the markets, you can imagine that perhaps these valuations are going to drop. And I'm not like I forgot what's the what's the website for it. But there was a website. Wait, let me see if I can find it. But they are pretty much committing to doing quantitative tightening for the next 6 months, I think. It is on their official website. Let me see if I can find article. But basically it states that for the next 6 to 12 months, the Federal Reserve are going to be like selling about $35 billion worth of assets out of their balance sheet for the next 6 to 12 months. And this amount is going to be increased month on month. So as long as the Federal Reserve continues have this stance of raising interest rates and being like selling off their assets, you can imagine the markets are not probably not going to do too well. And because of that, you won't see a crypto bull market, or you're not going to see a recovery of markets in general until they do decide to reverse their stance. And when that happens, it's probably going to take at least 6 to 12 months. So hopefully that answers your question for you. So by the time we get another quote unquote bull market, other than taking a look at market structure and how that is shifting, The Federal Reserve is like one of the most important factors to a resurgence of a bull market, but it all adds up. I'm just telling you the most important factor. As for, you know, taking a look at market structure, then you're going to want to see some kind of a shift, like some kind of around the bottom. You're going to want to see market structure shifting into making high highs and higher lows consistently, stuff like that, you know. And when the time comes, I'm definitely going to be making another video on that. And so make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel and turn on the bell notification so that you are up to date on that.
