In this video Roman Ceccardi walks short‑term (intraday) traders through a concrete trading plan for the upcoming U.S. CPI release, focusing on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). He first explains the market’s current "buy program"—a higher‑time‑frame bias that pushes prices up—and why traders should avoid shorting and instead look for long entries that align with market‑maker liquidity dynamics. The core methodology revolves around identifying sell‑side liquidity (stop‑loss clusters), spotting rapid price imbalances, and using Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) together with the 0.5 Fibonacci level (the equilibrium point) to time entries. Three specific BTC entry zones are marked on the 1‑hour chart, each with suggested stop‑loss placement and a primary target around 25,250 (derived from daily swing lows) and secondary targets within the FVG. For ETH, Ceccardi demonstrates a slightly different approach: he uses a swing‑high reference point instead of the 0.5 level to obtain a tighter entry, identifies two discount zones (around 1615‑1623) for long positions, and sets a target near 1,707 based on the next 1‑hour swing high. Throughout, he stresses risk management, paper‑trading before committing real capital, and the importance of viewing market moves around macro events (CPI, FOMC) as liquidity‑taking “fake moves" that create entry opportunities. The video concludes with a promotional call‑to‑action for his paid trading education program.
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What's up everybody? So we have the CPI report coming up in just a few hours as of the time of this recording. So I'm making this quick video just to give you guys an understanding of how you can prepare for CPI and how you can potentially make some money off of CPI. Now this video is primarily predicated for short-term traders, and if you're a longer-term trader such as a swing trader or longer, this is not going to be as relevant for you. But for those of you who are more towards intraday traders, this is going to be highly beneficial for you. So before we get into it, this video is just going to focus primarily on Bitcoin and Ethereum. And without any further ado, let's dive into it. So firstly, let's take a look at Bitcoin, right? The movement for this week has been like the market has been in a buy program. And when I say buy program, it just means that the algorithms that are delivering the price action throughout the course of this week have been to deliver higher prices, right? Their job has been to offer higher prices, and hence it's a buy program. Hence the market has been going straight up. So in a buy program, until otherwise proven, you don't want to just start shorting it because you know, maybe your higher time frame targets haven't been hit. And that's the trap that a lot of beginner traders fall into. They see the price go up straight and then they think that's a good reason for them to just short it, when in reality the thing that they should be doing is actually to find ways to get into the trade going long so that they can ride the momentum that the market makers— it's basically just called institutional sponsorship, right? If the market makers have the ability to move the market and these market makers are trying to move the market higher, right, just ride the wave with them. Why try to fade the trend? So that is a situation right now. But the reason why I bring up the buy program is because in buy programs, when we are looking to go long, we always want to wait for a sweep of sell-side liquidity or some kind of sell-side imbalance to get filled. For example, these 2 swing lows here are known as sell-side liquidity, right? It basically just means that traders have these stop losses set underneath this, you know, just this swing low. And so if the market makers were to bring the price here, a lot of traders are going to get stopped out of their longs. There are going to be a lot of market sell orders that trigger here. And what happens when you have a lot of people willing to sell at a low price? Well, guess who's buying them? The market makers. So that's just generally how it works. And so in buy programs, you never want to chase the price. You always want to wait for some kind of a retrace back into some kind of sell-side liquidity. Or in this case, I'm looking at this imbalance over here where basically price in these 3 candles basically just went straight up. And whenever you see candles like these, it just basically means that there is an imbalance of Too many buyers, not enough sellers. So think of it this way. Have you ever went through a situation where the market was moving super quickly and your limit order just never got filled? Or like your stop loss didn't trigger and price just completely just blows through wherever your level has been set? Well, you're not the only one facing that. In fact, that is very common. So there are a lot of open orders here, right? Open buy orders, open sell orders that are just good places for the market makers. The moment they bring the price back down to these areas, boom. Of them are going to be filled, and then they can go back into their trade direction. This is generally the pattern that happens during every single CPI report day, and also the FOMC, where you will tend to see what I like to call FOMC shenanigans, where price will either go straight down and then straight up, or straight up and then straight down. So that first move is almost always going to be a false move. So you want to be prepared for it because this happens pretty quickly. Price tends to move at a very quick velocity when this happens. So here I've already marked out 3 levels where you can look to go long on Bitcoin, and this is going to be the target. So the first area of value is going to be this fair value gap here, where the gap between the top of this candle wick and this candle wick bottom, there is just, you know, a gap in the price action where there is zero price action. So this is known as a fair value gap. And so I just draw a fib from bottom to top and I find the 0.5. Now the reason why 0.5 matters so much is because 0.5 is equilibrium, and the algorithms that deliver price action really love to keep the markets in a state of equilibrium. Anytime they get to move the price back to like a 0.5 level, they're going to take it. Hence, that is going to become our first area of value. So this is the exact time for CPI, which is 8:30 AM. So when that happens, you just want to be on the chart already ready with all your levels ready. And then the moment CPI happens, what you're going to see is some telltale signs. If the price starts moving really aggressively, like really aggressively in one direction, then you know that's the fake move and it's just trying to stop out Like, just stop out all the people that are long here that have their stop losses set beneath all of these swing lows, and also to fill in some imbalance before they go up. And the reason— like, another analogy that I can give you on this, you know, on this note, is the fact that if you just imagine the markets as, you know, a Ferrari, what does any car need in order to go somewhere? They need fuel. So in order for the markets to go up or down, it needs fuel. Liquidity is that fuel. So they come down. That first move is always the move to take liquidity. If they want to bring the markets lower, they're going to first push the price really high, grab all the people that are willing to buy at a high price before— If people are willing to buy at a high price, guess who's selling it to them at a high price? It's the market makers. So that's just generally how it works. So that's going to be the first area of value. Second one is going to be at the start of this second fair value gap here on the 1-hourly chart. And the reason why I'm not going higher than the 1-hourly chart is because, again, this video is predicated for short-term traders. Not necessarily for long-term traders. So this, like, 1 hour is as high as I would go for someone that is either intraday or short-term. So second area value is at the start of the fair value gap, and the third is again at the 0.5 of the second 1-hourly fair value gap. If any of these 3 levels gets hit, well, you know, it's just an easy long. Of course, there is invalidation levels. I do highly recommend, unless you are familiar with this term called risk management, please do not take any of these as financial advice and just paper trade them. Right? Just see how it goes. Just place a trade on paper trading and then see if it's right, right? If it's right, then the next time that happens, you can take advantage of it. People that try to make money too quickly are always the people that get their accounts blown up. It's a marathon, not a sprint. I know you've heard that a bunch of times, but level 1, level 2, level 3— level 3 is very unlikely. And you know, your stop loss, well, just set it at a reasonable level. For example, if you're going in at the half, you know, at the 0.5 of the fair value gap, maybe you set a stop loss at the start of the fair value gap. If you are perhaps Going in on the start of the fair value gap, maybe just set it, you know, just a little bit under the middle, right? And the first one is going to be pretty easy because you're already going in at the 0.5, so just set it at the start of the fair value gap, and that's going to be one of the best entries. And I'll give you my target as well. Target number 1 is over here at 25,250, right? That's the target, and I'll explain why. If you go on to the daily chart, these are where the previous swing lows are at, and You know, it's again above every swing high is liquidity. And just think of it this way: anywhere where there's liquidity, it's going to act some like some kind of magnet to draw price towards that area. So anytime you see liquidity, just expect price to draw towards there. There's a reason why this has been just straight up. It's just been targeting liquidity, liquidity, and ultimately liquidity. Okay, it's as simple as that. So that is Bitcoin. That's going to be target number one. And target number two is going to be anywhere, anywhere within this fair value gap. You can use the start. You can use the middle, you can use the top, although the top is going to be a very unlikely target to get hit today. Again, this is short-term trading, this is intraday trading. If you're swing trading, then yeah, you know, that's going to be a good target. But for the perspective of our trade today, it's either here or here at 20— well, we're definitely not going to go to 27 today, but target 1, that is, that is doable. Let's just put it this way. So that is Bitcoin. Now let's get into Ethereum real quick. And full disclosure, I'm actually in an Ethereum long at the moment. But let's start off on the 1-hourly chart. So the levels that you're going to want to look at is over here, which is fair value gap again. And then you— what you do is you draw from bottom to top of fair value gap and you get the 0.5. Now you will notice that this area value here, I set it just a little bit lower than the 0.5 because in this case I'm actually using the previous swing high as a reference point For the market makers to rebalance it. So whenever you see like just a fair value gap, but then you see a little swing high over here, it's always—it's almost always safer for you to use the swing high as a reference point rather than just the 0.5 of the fair value gap. And there's not that big of a difference either. So you might be wondering now: Why did I not use the start of the fair value gap? Because there is another entry over here. And the reason for that is because in this case in particular, yes, you could use that, right? It is still very valid, but. I kind of want to give you a better entry when it comes to ETH. So if your first Bitcoin entry gets blown out, it's actually a really tight stop loss. But in this case, if you were to go for like this first fair value gap here, stop loss would be pretty, pretty wide. So for ETH in particular, I just wanted to give you an entry that would be higher, you know, just higher probability and also safer. Hence I am just adding one layer of filter to this trade in order to make it, you know, better. So the way I do that is I draw a fib from this swing low to the swing high. In this range here, anything above the 0.5 is going to be in a premium. Anything below the 0.5 is going to be in a discount. Now, if I were to sell you an iPhone for $2,000, you're probably not going to buy it because that price is a premium compared to the market price of an iPhone, which is about $1,000. But if I do sell you an iPhone for $500, that's a discount. You will take it. Same goes for the market makers, okay? Simple psychology. It's simple economics. So if the price comes back into a discount within this range here, anything below the 0.5, which is going to be right here at 1623 and also right here at 1615. That is going to be the 2 levels that I'm going to be looking for during CPI for, you know, just a quick wick and then bam. Target is going to be right here at 1707, and the reason for that is because I believe it is just 1-hourly swing highs there. So ladies and gentlemen, this is a pretty long video with a lot of explanations. Now, just one final note. If you're still here at this point in the video, you are definitely someone who is serious about learning, and you can watch as many of these videos as you want, but chances are the only thing that's stopping you from getting results is actually just some coaching. So if you're interested in getting a trading education that actually works and provides results, just click the link in the description box below and I will see you inside. May the gains be with you, my friends. Trade safe.
