In this video, Roman Ceccardi provides a detailed market commentary on Bitcoin, arguing that the cryptocurrency is approaching a bottom around the $25,000‑$26,000 range. He bases his view on several technical signals: a CME futures price gap between $24,700 and $26,100 that historically fills and triggers strong rebounds; the Bitcoin Volatility Index approaching 12 points, which historically coincides with price reversals; the 200‑week exponential moving average (EMA) hovering near $25,200, a historically strong support level that has produced 40‑250% bounces on prior tests; and the total crypto market‑cap nearing its own 200‑week EMA around $1.08 trillion, indicating broader market support. Ceccardi recommends an entry zone near $24,700, warns against shorting near support, and emphasizes psychological resilience, sharing his own loss experiences and encouraging persistence. He also promotes his social channels (Twitter, private Discord) for further updates and teases a follow‑up video on Ethereum.
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What's up everybody? So Bitcoin has currently taken out all the levels that we were looking for Bitcoin to take out, and at the moment it seems like Bitcoin is looking primed for another move downwards. Or is it? In this video, we're going to discuss the possibility of a Bitcoin bottom as well as what to expect next heading into the rest of this week, basically. And you know, I'm just trying to get out here and make a lot of daily update videos so that you guys can keep up to date on what's happening in the crypto markets and what to expect. Now if you want to get like just All of them. I think I posted like 20 or 30 tweets just yesterday as things were happening. And if you want to just get basically all the market updates, like sometimes I can't make a video, so I'm gonna be posting them on Twitter at _liardacrypto. Over here I'm posting snippets from the private Discord group as well, and you know exactly my plan and you know my thoughts and any trades that I might be potentially taking. But anyways, I'm not going to delay this any longer. Let's just dive right back into the video. Now firstly, If you guys watched that video I made on a Bitcoin bear flag and what that means for Bitcoin and whether or not it will go back to $20K, my answer to that was no, it's not gonna go back to $20K, at least not in the immediate future. And the reason for that is because of liquidity. You just took out liquidity on all of these stops, all of these swing lows right here, and currently you are looking poised to make a recovery. Now, exactly where the recovery will come, we'll have to take a look at the Bitcoin CME futures because over here you can see that there is a Bitcoin CME futures gap at $26K, about $26,100, to about $24,700. So this is important because gaps tend to be filled. Now, I don't know if you can see the last time that we had a gap, it was over here, right? And price came down to fill the gap and immediately, you know, gave a really hard bounce. And by really hard bounce, I'm talking about like 50%. Now, am I saying something like that is gonna happen, you know, similarly? Are we gonna get that kind of a hard bounce? My opinion, it is likely. And imagine if you just simply made it back to like $35K, right? Let's say you made it back to $35K, right, to fill in that CME futures gap right there. Then that would be a 42% pump. So currently the entry, the ideal entry that I'm looking for at the moment is going to be at 24,700, give or take, right in between this, basically this zone right here. And this is a zone that I did not talk about in my previous videos, mainly because I wasn't expecting it to hit, you know, in such an aggressive fashion. But now that we're close, then this is definitely looking like the level that these market makers want to take the price to. And because of that, we are going to be prepared and we're going to take advantage of it. Now, if you guys watch video that I made like 2 days ago about predicting the bottom, you might remember me saying things about Bitcoin Volatility Index. And I said that if it hit 9 points, that Bitcoin would be at $29K. And if it hit 12 points, which is currently very close to 12 points— it's at 11.5 at the moment that I'm filming this video— that Bitcoin would be close to about $26K. And currently that looks to be coming true. And mind you, this is a really good chart to predict when things are going to come to a stop. Now, to put things into context, I want you to take a look at when was the last 2 times that we were this high on the Bitcoin Volatility Index. The first one is going to be last year on December 2021. I'm sure all of you guys remember that crash from $69K to, I forgot what's the price. And the second time, you know, the first time that in the near recent history that Bitcoin Volatility Index went this high was back in the May 2021 crash. And I'm sure you guys remember what happened then. And this chart is very important to take a look at because this tells you essentially when the downtrend, or when the hard dump is going to end. We're going to go into a next stage of accumulation before, you know, the pump. So looking at this, Bitcoin volatility is at really, really key resistance at the moment. If I just go back into the past, you can see how many times— if I just plot a line on, let's say, 12 or 11.8, you can see how many times price has came very, very close to this level and got rejected. So the odds are, right, the odds, the possibility of Bitcoin you know, this move being over soon is likely, and that should be good news for everyone because that means that the bleeding could potentially stop. But at the same time, you know, everyone's already taken quite a beating. Never would I have thought that I would see Ethereum back at sub-$2K prices. I would never have thought that AVAX would be back at $25 or $26. Definitely did not think that Solana would be below $50. But if you are in crypto, right, this is the time when you should be excited because these are really historical prices at the moment. And people who buy here at this moment, like sub-$30K Bitcoin prices, man, in like 1 year's time, they're going to look back at this time and they're not going to believe it that they bought sub-$30K. Either way, I think the bottom is going to be at $25K, and at least for this move, and I'll give you another reason why. So just to give you another point of confluence, when I say that $25K could be a very potential bottom for Bitcoin is when I go to the weekly chart and I pull up a 200-week EMA. Now these EMAs are very key for using basically just as an indication of what trend is like at the moment. And currently you can see that on the weekly chart, at least, right, if you just look at EMAs by itself, then the price is still very bullish. The reason why I bring this up is because you can see that the 200-week EMA is hovering somewhere close to $25,200, which means that as price comes back to this level, it is going to be so strong because this is the first time in Bitcoin's history where we have tested the 200-week EMA. Now that level is going to act as really strong support because this is going to be basically 1, 2, the 3rd time that Bitcoin has retested the 200-week EMA. And currently I'm looking at Bitstamp at the moment, so The calculations for this can be a little bit different from Binance, but nevertheless, on Binance it was at $25,200, and on, you know, Bitstamp, basically price is already below the 200-week EMA. And you can see that every time we have either retested or went below the 200-week EMA, right, the first time was here, we got an immediate 40% bounce. The second time was here, the moment we retested it, assuming we just bought at the 200-week EMA, we got, you know, 125% pump. Now, the third time we went below the 200-week EMA, it basically started a very gigantic, very big pump, which is basically like 250%. At this point, you should get the idea. Currently, we are at historical buying prices, and this is not the time that you should be panicking. You know, I know there's a lot of pain in the markets, me included. My spot holdings are down like crazy. But at the same time, I understand that this is where the money is made. This is where most of the weak hands, you know, quote unquote weak hands, are going to exit the market and This is where you're going to profit, basically, because one man's loss is another man's win. Currently, this is exactly what's happening at the moment. And we also cannot end this video without talking about the total crypto market cap at the moment. You can see that even the total crypto market cap is nearing its 200-week EMA, and that is right about $1.08 trillion, which is another— let's see here— about another 5 to 6% drop, which would put Bitcoin right at about $26K, like mid-$25K to $26K. And this is important because The total crypto market cap is a really good indication of, you know, just how much money is in crypto. And you can see that currently it is sitting at very key support. When you take a look from the weekly chart, you can see that this blue box right here is really key support. And it makes sense that if you want to wick down before rebounding— and either way, you know, there is no indication that states that this thing is going to go to like $20K or even $15K in the next move in the immediate short term. Definitely expect some kind of rebound. And just remember, never start shorting into support. Currently Bitcoin is very close to support, and if you're shorting Bitcoin at these prices, or any, any altcoin for that matter other than Luna of course, then you are not going to have a very good time with it. Let's just say that. I just need you to think 3 to 6 months in advance and how prices can rebound from these current prices and gain like 40% in valuation or something. Imagine what 40% could do to your portfolio. Or even just your trading account. And just remember, if you've lost money during this dump, everybody has, including me. I've lost a significant portion of my spot holdings. And if you can make that money once, you can make it again. Money is just money. I've been through dumps worse than this, right? And it always recovers. You just gotta give it time. And more importantly, even if you got liquidated or anything, you can always try again. The people who are successful in this market tends to have a certain degree of persistence and perseverance. If you failed once, You know, you can revise your strategy, you can learn, and you can jump back in. Whatever the case, losing money is not a good excuse to hurt yourself or to do anything stupid. I know it doesn't feel that way right now, that you can make back that money, but trust me, you will. I've liquidated my account 5 times before. I've lost my own money, I've lost my friends' money, I've lost my family's money, I've lost a lot of money. And yet here I am. Things will pass. And if you agree with that, comment in the comment section. I will be sure to reply to every single comment. In the next video, I'm going to make a video about Ethereum and exactly what prices I'm going to be looking to get some Ethereum. For now, make sure you follow the Twitter, join the private group if you want, and check out this recent video that I made on a potential Bitcoin bear flag and why that doesn't really matter. And in that video, I'm going to discuss something very key that will allow you to fundamentally understand how the markets work. So check it out. For now, may the gains be with you. Stay safe. I know it's hard out there, but it'll pass.
